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Patriots sign Mike Gillislee to offer sheet

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http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/19186615/new-england-patriots-sign-buffalo-bills-rb-mike-gillislee-offer

Patriots sign Bills RB Mike Gillislee to two-year offer sheet

The New England Patriots have extended an offer sheet to Buffalo Bills running back Mike Gillislee, sources confirmed to ESPN.

The offer is for two years and is worth $6.4 million, including $4 million in the first year. The Bills have five days to decide whether to match the offer sheet.

The offer sheet and financials were first reported by NFL Network.

If the Bills decline to match Gillislee's offer, it is unlikely the Patriots will re-sign free-agent running back LeGarrette Blount, who led the NFL with 18 rushing touchdowns, which was the highest total in the NFL since Adrian Peterson had 18 in 2009. He was the Patriots' top power running back, totaling 1,161 yards on 299 carries in the regular season.

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Not exactly what Blount might want to see...

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Big F you to Blount!  

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Very hard to rate anyone in the Pats backfield but I think Gillislee has actual talent. If he doesn't get overvalued because of what Blount did last year he would be an interesting draft/hold in redraft to see where things stand 3-4 weeks into the season.

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Gillislee is going to the Patriots.  It'll be interesting to see where his adp ends up.  To me Gillislee is a low ceiling/high floor player.  If he stays healthy, 12+ rushing touchdowns seems likely.  But he is a player who had 9 receptions last year replacing a guy who had 6 receptions last year.  It's hard to be an elite fantasy running back with so few receptions.

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Posted (edited)

what is/was the deadline for Buffalo to match the Cheats' offer sheet?  Wasn't it 5 days from the offer?  If so, then it's a done deal and Gillislee will be a Cheat.

Edited by Dcat

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20 minutes ago, Dcat said:

what is/was the deadline for Buffalo to match the Cheats' offer sheet?  Wasn't it 5 days from the offer?  If so, then it's a done deal and Gillislee will be a Cheat.

 

The Bills had until 4pm EST yesterday to match or pass.  It's definitely a done deal.  I'd assume he takes the Blount role and the Burkhead signing was an indication that they may not be totally sold on Dion Lewis' health.  James White is there too.  Total mess.  If anything, I'd plug Gillislee in against teams that the Pats are slated to blow out.  Good luck picking one of the other three as the "PPR back".

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52 minutes ago, darin3 said:

 

The Bills had until 4pm EST yesterday to match or pass.  It's definitely a done deal.  I'd assume he takes the Blount role and the Burkhead signing was an indication that they may not be totally sold on Dion Lewis' health.  James White is there too.  Total mess.  If anything, I'd plug Gillislee in against teams that the Pats are slated to blow out.  Good luck picking one of the other three as the "PPR back".

The bills are waiting until the last second to do a 1 dollar up bid..Gil style

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Thank you Patriots for making my McCoy/Bush/J.Williams Bills trio complete. 

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This is a great move by the Patriots but in terms of fantasy football, I am avoiding this backfield like the plague. 

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13 hours ago, Wpob said:

This is a great move by the Patriots but in terms of fantasy football, I am avoiding this backfield like the plague. 

 

Because of this move?  I think the Burkhead move was the real killer in terms of fantasy value.  Unless, of course, there's something we don't know about Dion Lewis.  I wouldn't be shocked if they feel he's just not 100%.  James White proved he can be the "pass catcher", Gillislee will be the "Blount" now.  Adding Burkhead was the head-scratcher to me.  All of this ballyhoo about him having 3-down back qualities is kinda funny. 

 

I will treat the NEP backfield the same for now.  Gillislee will be nice in best-ball formats because there'll be weeks he runs for 85 yards and 2 TDs.  But then there may be weeks he goes for 40 yards and no scores.  In redrafts, I like having backups where you can plug them in on certain weeks (like when the Pats are playing cupcakes) and you're almost guaranteed 60/1. 

 

I still like James White.  I think his Super Bowl performance elevated him to the main "pass catcher" in that offense, like what Lewis was touted as pre-injury.  I think Burkhead and Lewis fight for scraps.  Just my :2cents:

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http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/04/18/with-burkhead-and-gillislee-signings-patriots-buy-into-analytics/

With Burkhead and Gillislee signings, Patriots buy into analytics

Posted by Michael David Smith on April 18, 2017, 2:46 PM EDT

At a time when teams across the NFL are showing little to no interest in most of the big-name running backs available in free agency, the Patriots have signed two running backs. And in doing so, they’ve shown they’re at the forefront of the analytics movement, even if they don’t like to say so.

Today the Patriots signed restricted free agent running back Mike Gillislee to an offer sheet that they hope the Bills won’t match, and previously the Patriots signed running back Rex Burkhead away from the Bengals. What do Gillislee and Burkhead have in common? The average fan may not know a lot about them, but the analytics people love them.

Analytics website FootballOutsiders.com ranked Gillislee as the most efficient running back in the NFL last year, and Burkhead as No. 2. Analytics website NumberFire also had Gillislee first and Burkhead second. Analyst Warren Sharp’s metrics had Gillislee first and Burkhead second in success rate, and Burkhead first and Gillislee second in the fewest “missed yards per attempt,” or how close they came to being successful on the plays that weren’t quite good enough to quality as successful.

The various analytics websites have slight differences in the way they rate players, but they all tend to support the same traits in a running back, namely consistently helping the team pick up first downs. Both Gillislee and Burkhead were excellent at picking up first downs last season, gaining first downs more than 30 percent of the time. Meanwhile, for all the focus on LeGarrette Blount and his 18 touchdowns last year, Blount picked up first downs on just 22.4 percent of his carries. The analytics models say Blount was actually a mediocre running back last year, and that may explain why the Patriots are willing to let Blount walk and turn their attention to Gillislee and Burkhead.

Unlike the Browns, who are open about the fact that they’re building their team with an analytics approach, the Patriots keep quiet about their belief in analytics. We noted last year that Bill Belichick was dismissive about analytics websites, saying he doesn’t look at them. And he probably doesn’t, because he doesn’t need to: He has staffers who stay on top of the latest in analytics, and those staffers do read those websites. One of Belichick’s most trusted advisors is Ernie Adams, the Patriots’ football research director, who was a municipal bonds trader before he worked for Belichick, first in Cleveland and then in New England. Many of the methods that sports statistical analysts use are rooted in the same methods used to analyze economic data. Adams understands both, and that makes him valuable to Belichick.

The interest in analytics goes to the very top of the Patriots’ organization. The Patriots’ official website wrote last year that “You may not find a bigger believer in data and analytics than New England Patriots Owner Robert Kraft.”

As the Browns struggled through their first rebuilding season under the new analytics-based regime last season, some observers scoffed that the Moneyball approach wouldn’t work in the NFL. And maybe it won’t work in Cleveland. But it’s working in New England, whether the Patriots say so publicly or not.

 
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6 hours ago, darin3 said:

 

Because of this move? 

Yes.  This has the makings of the Denver Broncos from years ago when we had no idea who would be the guy to start, score or sit.  With so many options for the Patriots, they can go with whoever they want.  Rex can score 4 times in three games and then get 5 carries total in the next three. The same goes for the other RBs.  Unless there are injuries, I dont see one RB stepping up and being the man for this team. 

 

I see all four RBs finishing with RB#3 or low #2 numbers. 

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10 hours ago, Wpob said:

Yes.  This has the makings of the Denver Broncos from years ago when we had no idea who would be the guy to start, score or sit.  With so many options for the Patriots, they can go with whoever they want.  Rex can score 4 times in three games and then get 5 carries total in the next three. The same goes for the other RBs.  Unless there are injuries, I dont see one RB stepping up and being the man for this team. 

 

I see all four RBs finishing with RB#3 or low #2 numbers. 

Agree. Patriots were already a plug & play offense based on whatever matchups they wanted to exploit, but at least before they only had one real option as a grind-it-out, short yardage/goal line type guy in Blount. Now wit both Gillislee & Burkhead, who knows. Not to mention, Blount hasn't actually left New England yet, though I don't see them keeping him. Gillislee was looking real interesting towards the end of last year and I'd come very close to pulling the trigger on him in my dynasty league multiple times. But, that was strictly with an eye on the future knowing that McCoy wouldn't be around forever and the possibility of him being the next guy in line. Now? Who is the last New England RB that you could really count on, Corey Dillon in 2004? And just how long did that last?

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