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Rookie 1.01


BA Baracus
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I don't think that we have a clear cut choice this year. In my mind, there are three legitimate candidates.

 

1. Corey Davis is my clear top WR, but I am very skeptical about taking a guy with the number one pick who has done no athletic testing.

2. Leonard Fournette's limited pass catching resume and no agility testing makes me doubt his ability to be a true three down back in the NFL.

3. Christian McCaffery's size concerns me when he starts taking hits from NFL linebackers. Can he hold up to the abuse? Will he be deployed on passing downs only?

 

I know others may have Dalvin Cook up there as well, but his agility measurables were pretty poor and he has significant off the field risk. For me, he is not in the same tier as the other three guys.

 

Of course, landing spot and draft position will have a big influence on where these guys get drafted in fantasy, but it is hard for me to envision a scenario that results in a clear cut top guy.

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Doubt Fournette all you want & I can't say that I really disagree, but in today's NFL where the majority of teams opt for a RBBC approach, I just don't see how anyone could possibly consider passing on getting what looks to be the closest thing to a workhorse back in quite some time.

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Another issue with Fournette is that he's probably going to a crappy offense like the Jets. Zeke hit the jackpot last year landing in Dallas. There is no situation nearly that ripe this year.

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Think I'd take McCaffery...he'll be in on 3 downs on that offense.  Fournette will start but should get pulled out on 3rd down.  Titan's WRs disappear from week-to-week, and doubt Davis will consistently produce.  JMHO but I'd take Williams over Davis with the way the draft fell...

Edited by ABearWithFurniture
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11 hours ago, ABearWithFurniture said:

Think I'd take McCaffery...he'll be in on 3 downs on that offense.  Fournette will start but should get pulled out on 3rd down.  Titan's WRs disappear from week-to-week, and doubt Davis will consistently produce.  JMHO but I'd take Williams over Davis with the way the draft fell...

 

The Panthers drafting of Curtis Samuel just put a serious damper on McCaffrey's upside. Samuel will be listed as a WR and will likely not get many carries, but the two will share a lot of pages in the playbook, especially as a slot option.  I was totally in the 1a, 1b, 1c camp with Fournette, Davis and McCaffrey but now am not so sure.

 

It's a toss-up based on team needs for me.  If you're stacked at WR and not RB, take Fournette.  If it's the opposite, take Davis.  I don't think you can go wrong either way.

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I think Samuel's signing in a positive.  At first I was concerned that that offense wouldn't know what to do with McCaffrey.  But if they are taking Samuel too, this hints to me that there's a plan to fundamentally change what they do.  You don't make both of these picks by accident.  They may not go full Urban Meyer spread offense (or maybe they will with Cam???) but there's a shift coming.  KB is overrated and Funchess is awful so there are a ton of touches available in that offense.

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32 minutes ago, flemingd said:

I think Samuel's signing in a positive.  At first I was concerned that that offense wouldn't know what to do with McCaffrey.  But if they are taking Samuel too, this hints to me that there's a plan to fundamentally change what they do.  You don't make both of these picks by accident.  They may not go full Urban Meyer spread offense (or maybe they will with Cam???) but there's a shift coming.  KB is overrated and Funchess is awful so there are a ton of touches available in that offense.

 

Agree with some of this (KB overrated, was happy to trade him for 1.11 a few weeks ago... also agree that it may signal a shift in how things go offensively) but you have to understand there is just so many touches in an offense, even if there is a fundamental shift.  Overrated or not, McCaffrey and Samuel were not going to eat into the looks KB/Funchess get.  They will be getting similar looks in the offense.   So if you don't think that adding Samuel has taken a bite out of McCaffrey's value then I think that's a mistake.  Maybe I'm wrong.  I was all-in on the guy prior to the Samuel pick.  I still like him but some of the luster is off.

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After seeing how the draft played out, I have a sneaky optimistic feeling about Dalvin Cook being very good, very early...

 

for one, I think McKinnon gets overrated as a player due to his athletic scores (and visa versa for Cook).

 

the fact that their skill sets overlap so much leads me to think it will be one or the other who gets a heavy workload, not both

 

and, possibly above all else, the vikings clearly saw it a priority to add a talented high end RB. how much a team invests in a player can often be a stronger predictor of playing time than it really should be. and especially in a year where the vikings didn't have a first round pick, and in a time where RBs are devalued in the draft, to trade up for a guy and preclude your team from adding talent at any other position until the 3rd round says a lot about how they view McKinnon (and latavius... almost forgot about latavius) and how they view the importance of having a high end "franchise" RB.

 

and with the center they drafted plus the two tackles they signed, they should have an o line that at least allows the team to function properly

Edited by pun
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Cook is a guy I would add only if I have very good young RBs on my dynasty roster.  It is going to take at least 2-3 years for his potential to be realized.  The Vikings OL was absolutely terrible last year.  Not to say Cook couldn't have fantasy value on a team with a bad OL, because he can catch the ball out of the backfield and turn out big plays both in the run and pass game.  But Murray is going to be the man there at least this year, maybe next as well.... unless Cook can beat out McKinnon for the COP role and is absolutely electric in doing so.  But I do like Cook - maybe more than most - and think talent trumps everything else.  Would have I preferred him to go to another situation (GBP, IND, etc.)?  Absolutely.  But great RBs can excel - especially in a fantasy context - regardless of how good the OL is, QB is, etc.  It just may take a few years.  I'm not drafting him where my RB need is greater.

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i get why you feel that way, i just have a good feeling about him, much better than i felt about him before the draft at least.

 

i actually think latavius deserves more credit than he gets for being a pretty consistent, dependable back who gets what the o-line gives him and can break off a big play now and then. there's a lot of RBs in the league who can't do that (usually occupying the giants depth chart.....). but oakland's line was probably top 3 last year along with dallas and pittsburgh, and he averaged 4.0 ypa while d-wash and richard (who aren't exactly all-pros either) averaged 5.4 and 5.9. that front office seems a little over-reactive, i'm not sure how well they planned out their off-season strategy for rb. but I think a 2nd round pick (plus a 4th) buys him more than enough opportunity to at least be half of an RBBC if he's anywhere near the RB he was in college. why do you say 2-3 years to develop, because of murray's contract? cook's ability to pass protect? RBs seem to have a pretty easy transition these days aside from pass protection issues.

 

regardless, i'd def draft fournette over him cause i think he'll develop fine as a pass catcher (not amazing, but fine),  plus i trust coughlin to fix that o-line, and they do have a few solid pieces now. cook and mccaffery are just about neck and neck to me as mccaffery carries a bit less risk and has a clear shot at significant playing time in year one, but i think cook will probably be the better player in the end. i feel like mixon is basically neck and neck with cook and mccaffery to me too. similar amount of risk as them (off field + injury + bust potential), less of a shot at being an immediate starter, but supposedly has the highest ceiling according to most people.

 

for me, fournette is a clear number one. the other three are basically tied, mixon maybe a smidge below cook/mccaff

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7 hours ago, pun said:

i get why you feel that way, i just have a good feeling about him, much better than i felt about him before the draft at least.

 

i actually think latavius deserves more credit than he gets for being a pretty consistent, dependable back who gets what the o-line gives him and can break off a big play now and then. there's a lot of RBs in the league who can't do that (usually occupying the giants depth chart.....). but oakland's line was probably top 3 last year along with dallas and pittsburgh, and he averaged 4.0 ypa while d-wash and richard (who aren't exactly all-pros either) averaged 5.4 and 5.9. that front office seems a little over-reactive, i'm not sure how well they planned out their off-season strategy for rb. but I think a 2nd round pick (plus a 4th) buys him more than enough opportunity to at least be half of an RBBC if he's anywhere near the RB he was in college. why do you say 2-3 years to develop, because of murray's contract? cook's ability to pass protect? RBs seem to have a pretty easy transition these days aside from pass protection issues.

 

regardless, i'd def draft fournette over him cause i think he'll develop fine as a pass catcher (not amazing, but fine),  plus i trust coughlin to fix that o-line, and they do have a few solid pieces now. cook and mccaffery are just about neck and neck to me as mccaffery carries a bit less risk and has a clear shot at significant playing time in year one, but i think cook will probably be the better player in the end. i feel like mixon is basically neck and neck with cook and mccaffery to me too. similar amount of risk as them (off field + injury + bust potential), less of a shot at being an immediate starter, but supposedly has the highest ceiling according to most people.

 

for me, fournette is a clear number one. the other three are basically tied, mixon maybe a smidge below cook/mccaff

 

I hate splitting hairs but since we are in our next "dead period" in the NFL and there are rookie drafts upon a good number of us, it's fun to really laser-focus and talk about minutia.  

 

Murray was a 6th round selection who does not fit the typical "three down RB" mold.  He is 6'3" and 230ish pounds.  Fairly close to ideal weight but lacks the lower center of gravity that most featured backs need to have.  He doesn't run as upright as many backs of his size/stature (Steven Jackson, even Eddie George) but is still lacks prototypical size for the position, and does not excel in pass catching.  Only 33 catches last year.

 

More damning for Murray is a very average 4 ypc... not just last year but year prior.  In his rookie year his ypc was 5.2 in limited action.  And in said limited action he had 17 catches.  So after his rookie season it looked like he was potentially a nice, three down back.  

 

I like Murray.  I think he's a pretty good RB who has outperformed his draft slot.  But a team does not move up in the draft, in a draft they lack a 1st round selection, to select an RB with MANY red flags unless they are totally certain that they are the real deal and able to be a feature back.  Honestly, these factors point to the Vikings having a 1st round grade on Cook.... and at one point, Cook was getting similar grades elsewhere.

 

Murray's salary jumps to $5.5M in 2018 and can be voided at that point.  If Cook flashes insane upside in whatever work he gets, you can bet the Vikes will say "peace out" and then Cook is looking at RB1 status.

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22 hours ago, darin3 said:

 

I hate splitting hairs but since we are in our next "dead period" in the NFL and there are rookie drafts upon a good number of us, it's fun to really laser-focus and talk about minutia.

 

totally get ya, if you can't talk about the minutia, then there's not gonna be a whole lot to talk about here in may :)

 

i'm not quite sure how you're splitting hairs though. i definitely agree about their pretty clear commitment to cook, and that this'll probably be latavius' only year in minny. though if mckinnon walks next year, they might choose to hold onto him as basically a backup to cook.

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Dalvin Cook could be PPR gold even if he is just a 3rd down back since he is a good receiver and Bradford and Bridgewater are so immobile.  And his big play ability could easily push him into the starting role.  But he is also a super risky pick since has fumbled so much.  He will be on a very short leash will his fumbling history.  I won't be drafting a rookie running back in redraft until the 4th round at the earliest.

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In my one IDP PPR Dynasty I have the 5th pick - pretty sure Corey Davis goes in the top 4, so I'm pretty much set on taking which of the 4 RBs falls to me, and being fine with that. Only wrinkle, and why I may consider Williams, is that I am ok at RB (ok, not great) but fairly weak at WR. Just not sure I can justify Williams with the pick

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