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First Round ADP vs Actual Results Over The Last 12 Years


michaelredd9
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Below is the average fantasy points of each round one draft position over the last 12 years separated by position.  I used MFL adp rank, not their actual MFL adp.  For instance, Antonio Brown had an adp of 2.11 last year, but he had the highest adp so he would be considered to have had an adp rank of 1.  Points system used is ppr, .1 per yard rushing or receiving, 4 points passing td, .05 points per yard passing, -2 for fumbles, -2 for interceptions.

 

Pick 1

11 rb averaged 298 points

1  wr averaged 308 points

 

Pick 2

1 qb averaged 388 points

9 rb averaged 269 points

2 wr averaged 339 points

 

Pick 3

1 qb averaged 281 points

9 rb averaged 210 points

2 wr averaged 242 points

 

Pick 4

2 qb averaged 76 points

10 rb averaged 270 points

 

Pick 5

3 qb averaged 362 points

6 rb averaged 237 points

3 wr averaged 318 points

 

Pick 6

2 qb averaged 380 points

7 rb averaged 245 points

3 wr averaged 333 points

 

Pick 7

3 qb averaged 285 points

6 rb averaged 187 points

3 wr averaged 224 points

 

Pick 8

2 qb averaged 292 points

7 rb averaged 230 points

2 wr averaged 232 points

1 te averaged 229 points

 

Pick 9

1 qb averaged 338 points

7 rb averaged 160 points

3 wr averaged 206 points

1 te averaged 255 points

 

Pick 10

3 qb averaged 323 points

8 rb averaged 263 points

1 wr averaged 205 points

 

Pick 11

3 qb averaged 306 points

7 rb averaged 169 points

1 wr averaged 314 points

1 te averaged 97 points

 

Pick 12

1 qb averaged 362 points

5 rb averaged 186 points

6 wr averaged 251 points

 

Overall in the first round of the last 12 years

22 qb averaged 304 points

92 rb averaged 233 points

27 wr averaged 266 points

3 te averaged 193 points

 

 

 

 

Edited by michaelredd9
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Below in the left column in descending order are the fantasy points scored the 92 times running backs have had a first round adp rank in the last 12 years.  The right column in descending order are the fantasy points scored the 27 times wide receivers have had a first round adp rank in the last 12 years.  Since there are 3.4 more running backs chosen than wide receivers, I've put the wide receivers results proportionately down the list.

481

415   382

407 

392

378

376   369

372

370

370   359

367

366

346   342

330 

328

325 

323   340

321

317

310   319

305

303

302

302   316

298 

283

277   314

276

276

276   308

275

272

272

270   306

262

261

250   303

246

243

243

236   296

234

234

233   287

232

231

227   284

226

224

225

222   267

217

211

208   261

207

205

204

203   259

202

201

199   256

199

199

198   232

189

185

178

178   226

177

176

155   208

154

152

151

144   205

142

141

140   199

140

137

129   197

128

127

127

123   186

108

95

82     97

80

70

68     95

18

9

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Below in the left column in descending order are the fantasy points scored the 29 times running backs have had adp rank in the first 3 picks of the first round in the last 12 years.  The right column in descending order are the fantasy points scored the 27 times wide receivers have had adp rank in all 12 picks of the first round in the last 12 years.

 

481   382

376   369

372   359

370   342

367   340

366   319

323   316

321   314

303   308

302

283   306

277   303

276   296

272   287

270   284

262   267

261   261

250   259

234   256

232

217   232

207   226

201   208

199   205

142   199

140   197

127   186

108   97

68     95

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would be cool to see just 2014-2016 if you have the data on excel or something (and additional rounds would be very cool too)

 

cause i feel like the prevailing draft philosophy up until the past few years was much more RB heavy in the first round. i did a brief skim of the some of the historical ADPs from the link you posted and it seems to support that. and it seems like there were less WRs in the top half of the first round compared to now. i didn't see many WRs going before picks 8 or 9 or so other than Calvin sneaking into like 4-6 a few times, and i don't think i saw any WRs going in the top 3 picks ever until 2014. that seems to be a bit of a turning point where 2 WRs went in the top 6 picks and WRs outnumbered RBs for the round as a whole.

 

it also seems like people were more willing to take QBs high several years ago. did matt stafford really go #12 in 2012? jeez. 5 QBs in the first 13 picks that year...

Edited by pun
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Below in the left column in descending order are the fantasy points scored the 37 times running backs have had adp rank in first round in the last 6 years.  The right column in descending order are the fantasy points scored the 20 times wide receivers have had adp rank in the first round in the last 6 years.

 

407

378   382

372

346   369

330

328   359

325

317   342

305

303   340

302   319

302   

283   316

275

272   308

261

250   306

232

225   303

222

211   296

207   267

199   

199   261

199   

178   259

178

154   226

152

144   205

141

140   199

108   197

82

68     186

18

9        95

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Below in the left column in descending order are the fantasy points scored the 14 times running backs have had adp rank in first round in the last 3 years.  The right column in descending order are the fantasy points scored the 15 times wide receivers have had adp rank in the first round in the last 3 years.

 

407   382

346   369

325   340

317   319

302   316

272   308

261   296

          267

250   261

199   259

199   226

141   205

140   199

82     197

9       186

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Below in the left column in descending order are the fantasy points scored the 9 times running backs have had adp rank in the first 6 picks of the first round in the last 3 years.  The right column in descending order are the fantasy points scored the 8 times wide receivers have had adp rank in the first 6 picks of the first round in the last 3 years.

 

407   382

346   369

325   340

272   319

261

250   308

199   296

199   259

140   226

Edited by michaelredd9
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4 hours ago, pun said:

the general pattern seems to confirm what i would expect, which is that WRs are safer picks floor-wise that there's not any huge benefit ceiling-wise to either position

 

The 4 highest season totals from the last 12 years are from running backs so their ceiling is a tad higher.  Wide receivers definitely have a higher floor.  The biggest difference in floor wasn't running backs getting hurt, though they did get hurt a bit more often.  The biggest difference was that running backs would sometimes just suck for no apparent reason.  A lot of the time it was a running back who had only been good for one year previously.  Receivers drafted in the first round had almost always been elite for several years and injury was the only way they didn't meet their expectations.

Edited by michaelredd9
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Compiled below are the fantasy points scored in weeks 14-16 from players with a first round adp rank in the last 3 years.

 

14 running backs played  36 of 42 games totaling 619.8 points for an average of 17.217 points per game played.

 

15 wide receivers played 39 of 45 games totaling 674.6 points for an average of 17.297 points per game played.

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