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Rookie QB's in Dynasty


BA Baracus
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The other thread about scoring rules got me thinking about rookie drafts in superflex leagues. I haven't quite settled on this, but here is what I think my board looks like:

 

1. Mahomes - I think he clearly has the most upside with his natural ability and playing for Andy Reid. The downside is that he probably won't be of any use in year one.

2. Kizer - Similar to Mahomes. I think he is second in terms of ability and he gets to play for Hugh Jackson. My guess is that he is the starter in Cleveland before the year is out.

3. Watson - Great landing spot to be the starter in week 1. I loved watching him in college was but was pretty disappointed by his measured arm strength. 

4. Trubisky - I think he was a one-year-wonder at UNC and he landed in one hell of a hot mess. Hard pass at his ADP. If he falls to the 4th in a 2QB or superflex I may be a buyer then.

 

I am also thinking that a flyer on Chad Kelley would be a good investment. He should be there in the 4th, if not the 5th. At that point, everything is a shot in the dark.

 

Any other 2QB Huddlers out there with :2cents: to share? What's your order for the top 4 and who is your late round wild card?

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3 minutes ago, tazinib1 said:

Call me crazy, but I love Joshua Dobbs in Dynasty. I'm gonna stash him on DTS until he's ready to take over for Ben when he does indeed retire. 

 

Big Ben isn't long for the league if you ask me. Dobbs could have a shot as early as next year. My only real concern with him is that he is rail thin at 6'-3" 216 lbs. Dude needs to bulk up or NFL edge rushers will snap him in half.

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1 hour ago, BA Baracus said:

 

Big Ben isn't long for the league if you ask me. Dobbs could have a shot as early as next year. My only real concern with him is that he is rail thin at 6'-3" 216 lbs. Dude needs to bulk up or NFL edge rushers will snap him in half.

 

I'm sure he will get all the conditioning and muscle buildup he needs. Tom Brady wasn't exactly Mr.Universe lol. 

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I'm all but done with my rookie drafts so I guess I can divulge all of this info :brow:

 

I, too, like Mahomes... but I don't think I'd put him at the top of the list.  While he may have the most upside, he also has the furthest to go and therefore has the lowest floor.  He could easily bust.  Gotta like the landing spot there with Reid, though.  Love the pedigree, arm strength and gunslinger mentality.  Definitely the makeup of a great fantasy QB.   Didn't get him in any of my leagues, though.

 

My #1 just based on an accumulation of data, landing spot, etc. is Kizer.  He's got it between the ears, has the physical tools and is coached by a "QB whisperer".  Only challenge to a long-term job is Kessler, who, while the coaching staff thinks is underrated (and he may be), he seems like an overachiever who would be best suited as a backup/game-manager.  Kizer was awesome two years ago at Notre Dame and took a step back last year.  He lost two stud OLs and his stud WR.  Tough to produce when things like that happen.  Imagine an NFL QB losing his #1 WR and two important linemen.  I took Kizer in one league (already owned Kessler and Brees is my #1) as I wanted a prospect who needs a year or two.

 

Everyone else has varying degrees of upside.

 

Watson seems to have the highest floor and will give you the most instant returns, most likely.  But thinking he's a "mini Cam Newton" is foolish.  He is not built that way and will get destroyed if he tries to be Cam Lite.  The Texans will run the ball and let their QB manage, hopefully without mistakes.  Watson looks like an Alex Smith to me.  Startable in bigger formats but in your normal 12-team league, you'll be able to do better.  I picked him up in a league where I have Mariota and McCown (yuck).  Thinking Watson will start this season and I wanted a safe backup.

 

I am torn on Trubisky.  I will admit I was absolutely seething on draft night.  I was at a little dive bar watching; had I been at Buffalo Wild Wings or something I probably woulda got kicked out for swearing so much.  I like the tools but his arm strength is only average and you need a cannon to play in the NFC Norris.  He doesn't come across as a leader; far too passive.  I like the athleticism, though, and who knows.... maybe Ryan Pace knows what he's doing and Trubisky will be Aaron Rodgers-esque by 2020.  I am not betting on it. Avoided Trubisky in all drafts so far.

 

Peterman and Beathard strike me as QBs that their respective teams are rolling the dice on in the Cousins mold.  Both have it between the ears but have limited athleticism, but could be awesome backups or if they really bust out, they could be huge sleepers.  I would say Peterman is the better candidate to do so, but I didn't invest in him anywhere.

 

One investment that could be a huge boon is Josh Dobbs.  This guy is smart as hell, athletic as hell, but needs a ton of work on his accuracy and reading defenses.  Love the landing spot in PIT with Big Ben getting older.  The Steelers rebooted their WR core with JuJu and gotta think Mike Tomlin will keep things going.

 

Others...


Webb - much ado about nothing.  The Giants were saying the same garbage about Ryan Nassib.  Only difference is that Eli is a few years older.

 

Kelly - on the fence.... has physical tools and the landing spot is fairly good (if Lynch falters) but definitely an uphill climb

Edited by darin3
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1 hour ago, darin3 said:

 

My #1 just based on an accumulation of data, landing spot, etc. is Kizer.  He's got it between the ears, has the physical tools and is coached by a "QB whisperer".

 

Nice write up.  But I'm not sure I agree with the accepted sentiment of Hue Jackson being a quarterback guru.  In the 9 years that Hue has been a quarterbacks coach, offensive coordinator, or head coach, all of his quarterbacks have been below average.  Not one has been good.  Carson Palmer had 13 touchdowns and 16 interceptions under Hue in 2011. In 2013, Andy Dalton had 33 touchdowns and 20 interceptions with Jay Gruden as OC.  The next year Dalton had 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions with Hue as OC.  Proof is in the pudding.

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11 minutes ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

Nice write up.  But I'm not sure I agree with the accepted sentiment of Hue Jackson being a quarterback guru.  In the 9 years that Hue has been a quarterbacks coach, offensive coordinator, or head coach, all of his quarterbacks have been below average.  Not one has been good.  Carson Palmer had 13 touchdowns and 16 interceptions under Hue in 2011. In 2013, Andy Dalton had 33 touchdowns and 20 interceptions with Jay Gruden as OC.  The next year Dalton had 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions with Hue as OC.  Proof is in the pudding.

 

:lol:  Hence the quotes.  We shall see.

 

But yeah, thanks.  Not a real exciting QB class, at least not compared to 2018.  I think it could be better than last year's, though.  Not saying much.

Edited by darin3
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