Brandin Cooks: Why no love?

[michaelredd9]

While Drew Brees is a top notch fantasy quarterback, his receivers haven't prospered as much fantasywise.  The best any New Orleans receiver has finished with Brees at the helm is 7th best (both Marques Colston and Michael Thomas).  The best any New Orleans wide receiver below 6'3" has finished under Brees except for Cooks is Lance Moore at 16th best.  Also, Brees has never had the rocket arm necessary for a true deep threat receiver to reach elite status.

 

Tom Brady, on the other hand, has been a wide receiver's wet dream.  And short receivers and deep threat receivers have prospered the most.  Brady doesn't spread the ball around like some other elite quarterbacks.  When Brady has an elite receiver, he feeds him the ball.  And the fact that Belichick traded a first round pick for Cooks reinforces the idea that he'll be a focus of the Patriots' offense.

 

Cooks currently has an MFL adp of 25.  Other early cheat sheets have him even lower.  He finished as the 13th best fantasy wide receiver in 2015 and the 10th best fantasy wide receiver in 2016.  His current MFL adp has him as the 13th highest wide receiver.  Is there any way other than injury that he won't vastly outproduce his adp with having Brady throwing him the ball?

[darin3]

I absolutely love Cooks in NEP and don't construe this as arguing but what "elite WR" has Brady ever really had besides Moss?  Who, is probably a step above "elite", as it were.

 

That is one crowded house there.  Edelman, Hogan, Amendola (probably gone), Mitchell... oh and that Gronk guy.  Add Cooks.

 

I hope you're right.  Cooks is probably the "best" WR out of that group, but traditionally that hasn't been how the NEP offense operates.

 

I could see him as a focus.  Moss like focus?  Maybe.  I don't know if Cooks is a glider the way Moss was.  

 

I can see Cooks and Gronk as the main focuses with Edelman still playing a very large role.  Still I don't see Cooks as a top-5 (or even 10) fantasy WR in NEP.  Could it happen, though?  Absolutely.

[michaelredd9]

3 minutes ago, darin3 said:

I absolutely love Cooks in NEP and don't construe this as arguing but what "elite WR" has Brady ever really had besides Moss?  Who, is probably a step above "elite", as it were.

 

That is one crowded house there.  Edelman, Hogan, Amendola (probably gone), Mitchell... oh and that Gronk guy.  Add Cooks.

 

I hope you're right.  Cooks is probably the "best" WR out of that group, but traditionally that hasn't been how the NEP offense operates.

 

I could see him as a focus.  Moss like focus?  Maybe.  I don't know if Cooks is a glider the way Moss was.  

 

I can see Cooks and Gronk as the main focuses with Edelman still playing a very large role.  Still I don't see Cooks as a top-5 (or even 10) fantasy WR in NEP.  Could it happen, though?  Absolutely.

 

I was thinking of Edelman, Welker, and Moss (and Gronk if you include tight end).  In general, the Patriots have used very few resources on wide receivers in either the draft or salary.  Aaron Dobson is the only wide receiver drafted in the 1st or 2nd round since 2006.  In fact, Belichick has never used a first round pick on a wide receiver.  Brady has done a lot with little.  Welker and Edelman might have only been 60 catch guys on other teams but put up elite numbers because of Brady.  Brees has never even had a 100 catch wide receiver.

 

In terms of mouths to feed, I think Cooks has little competition because the other wide receivers are mostly short route guys.  Cooks is the only real deep threat.  And when defenses' focus on Edelman and Gronk, it will open up Cooks to make a lot of big plays.  And if/when Gronk and Edelman get hurt, Cooks may be the only good Patriots wide receiver which could lead to Brady feeding him even more.  Malcolm Mitchell might be Cooks biggest threat to targets since might be a fairly decent deep threat.   Cooks may not put up Moss numbers.  But I don't think 16 touchdowns is out of the question.

[darin3]

45 minutes ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

I was thinking of Edelman, Welker, and Moss (and Gronk if you include tight end).  In general, the Patriots have used very few resources on wide receivers in either the draft or salary.  Aaron Dobson is the only wide receiver drafted in the 1st or 2nd round since 2006.  In fact, Belichick has never used a first round pick on a wide receiver.  Brady has done a lot with little.  Welker and Edelman might have only been 60 catch guys on other teams but put up elite numbers because of Brady.  Brees has never even had a 100 catch wide receiver.

 

In terms of mouths to feed, I think Cooks has little competition because the other wide receivers are mostly short route guys.  Cooks is the only real deep threat.  And when defenses' focus on Edelman and Gronk, it will open up Cooks to make a lot of big plays.  And if/when Gronk and Edelman get hurt, Cooks may be the only good Patriots wide receiver which could lead to Brady feeding him even more.  Malcolm Mitchell might be Cooks biggest threat to targets since might be a fairly decent deep threat.   Cooks may not put up Moss numbers.  But I don't think 16 touchdowns is out of the question.

 

Totally agree with all.  I would love to see it happen. That offense is going to hum again.  Might just be Brady's best set of pass catchers ever.  Hogan was a legit threat, Edelman is still awesome.  Gronk is a force.  Mitchell was nice in the redzone.  Adding Cooks could be scary.

[michaelredd9]

It's almost not fair how good the Patriots are going to be.  I have a feeling that Belichick is going "all in" for Brady's last few years.  The Patriots only having 4 draft picks this year is pure craziness.  Belichick clearly isn't looking to the future.  It won't surprise me if Garappolo gets traded before this year is through.  And I bet he gets traded for players that fill a need the Patriots have this year.  It also won't surprise me if Belichick retires when Brady retires.  Winning three or four straight Super Bowls would be a nice swan song to end their careers.  Mortgaging the future would be a small price to pay.

[ABearWithFurniture]

Let everyone know as soon as you have a solid read on who is going to score all the points any given week for the Patriot's offense...everyone knows it's going to happen, just who?  Until then you just have to downgrade everyone there not named Brady or Gronkowski...JMHO

[michaelredd9]

1 hour ago, ABearWithFurniture said:

Let everyone know as soon as you have a solid read on who is going to score all the points any given week for the Patriot's offense...everyone knows it's going to happen, just who?  Until then you just have to downgrade everyone there not named Brady or Gronkowski...JMHO

 

Second-rate, part-time players and running backs have been inconsistent for the Patriots but their elite receivers have always been consistent.  The Patriots always pass the ball.  Brady doesn't have down games.  In Julian Edelman's last 31 games, he has only one game where he had less than 4 catches.  It was the 4th game of last year when Jacoby Brissett was at quarterback.  But since Brandin Cooks gets long touchdowns he'll be slightly more inconsistent.  If he gets 90 catches, 1,300 yards, and 16 touchdowns, I don't care much how it is distributed.

[stethant]

I agree that this should be a bonanza for Cooks and I also agree that he will disappear for games. If you can accept the higher variance from game to game it should be well worth it. I would wait to make sure the chemistry develops during training camp and pre-season but Cooks historically hasn't dropped many balls and his route running is a strength. He doesn't have competition on the roster for the role he's best at and the Pats schedule against the pass to start the season is amazing.

 

Top 15 WR seems totally reasonable but by August draft dates many other people will have figured this out.

[ABearWithFurniture]

1 hour ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

Second-rate, part-time players and running backs have been inconsistent for the Patriots but their elite receivers have always been consistent.  The Patriots always pass the ball.  Brady doesn't have down games.  In Julian Edelman's last 31 games, he has only one game where he had less than 4 catches.  It was the 4th game of last year when Jacoby Brissett was at quarterback.  But since Brandin Cooks gets long touchdowns he'll be slightly more inconsistent.  If he gets 90 catches, 1,300 yards, and 16 touchdowns, I don't care much how it is distributed.

I'll agree on Edelman as he is generally consistent from the slot and you can get him for a much better price than Cooks.  The main problem I see with Brandon is that Chris Hogan is still on the roster and will compete with Cooks for the deep balls.  He's got great hands and made some spectacular catches last year.  He's not going away. Plus you can get him in the 10-12th round.

 

So on any given week you'll probably get some good numbers out of Brady, Gronk, and I would guess Edelman...but GL trying to figure who out of White, Lewis, Cooks, Hogan, Amendola, Allen, Mitchell, Gillislee, Bolden, Burkhead, Foster, Hawkins, will have the other significant impact.  You know one, maybe two of them will...but which?  That's why Patriot's 'second-string and new players'  always get drafted so low...just a mess trying to figure it all out from week-to-week and I doubt there is any one among us that hasn't been burned at least a few times trying.

[michaelredd9]

I'm working on the assumption that Edelman, Gronk, and Cooks will generally be on the field and that Hogan, Mitchell, and Dwayne Allen will be fighting for the remaining spot on the field (assuming a one running back formation).  While Hogan did lead the league last year in yards-per-catch at 17.9 and was awesome in the playoff game against the Steelers, his 38 receptions while playing 74% of snaps wasn't very productive on such a prolific offense.  My guess is that he didn't get separation on a regular basis and that Belichick plans on using him significantly less this year.

 

Brady is currently 10,358 yards and 83 touchdowns from being the all-time leader in both categories.  Him breaking both of these records in 2 years isn't out of the realm of possibility (though Drew Brees may push both records higher).  Passing deep often will help him break these records.

[ABearWithFurniture]

Sounds like you've already talked yourself into him as I was just trying to answer your question why isn't he basically getting that much love.  I wish you the best if you can snag him. The 3rd round might not be that bad if he falls that far, but you will probably have to pay for him in the 2nd round and JMHO that's a bit too much to pay for one of Darth Hoodie's players.

[Def.]

Redraft wise...

 

OBJ

Evans

Hopkins

Julio

Antonio

M. Thomas

Hilton

AJ

 

...for starters, then most will debate between the likes of...

 

Bryant

Pryor

Jordy

ARob

Cooper/Crabtree

Baldwin

Cooks

 

...which is right around where I'd look too.  

 

Hate the comparisons of Cooks to Moss.  Moss has half a foot on Cooks in height.  They will not use Cooks as they used Moss; just different receivers, different supporting casts, different systems.  See this as more of a Hilton with a plethora more target competition around him then TY has.   

[michaelredd9]

43 minutes ago, Def. said:

 

Hate the comparisons of Cooks to Moss.  Moss has half a foot on Cooks in height.  They will not use Cooks as they used Moss; just different receivers, different supporting casts, different systems.  See this as more of a Hilton with a plethora more target competition around him then TY has.   

 

I'm would never compare him to Moss.  I consider Moss the greatest wide receiver ever.  Moss was a wide receiver who you could throw up a jump ball when he was in double coverage and let him do the rest.  But both receivers are/were extremely fast wide receivers  who are/were excellent at getting open deep.  Cooks will be on the field 80% or 90% of snaps.  Cooks will get separation often.  Cooks will even see single coverage at times.  Brady has a strong arm and will find him on deep routes when he gets separation.  

 

The Patriots are deep at receiver.  But the Patriots' 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th wide receivers can't take away Cooks' targets if they aren't on the field.  Belichick traded a 4th round pick for Dwayne Allen (minus a 6th rounder) and the Patriots are paying him $5 million for this year.  Allen isn't just an insurance policy for if Gronk gets hurt.  My guess is that Dwayne Allen will see the field more than any wide receiver other than Edelman and Cooks.  Allen's blocking ability is far more valuable than having another receiver on the field when you have pass catchers as elite as Gronk, Edelman, and Cooks on the field.

Edited May 31, 2017 by michaelredd9

[darin3]

1 hour ago, Def. said:

Redraft wise...

 

OBJ - yeah

Evans - yeah

Hopkins - no way, not with that QB mess

Julio - yeah

Antonio - yeah

M. Thomas - debatable

Hilton - nope

AJ - debatable

 

...for starters, then most will debate between the likes of...

 

Bryant - no way

Pryor - no

Jordy - debatable 

ARob - not a chance 

Cooper/Crabtree - not a chance

Baldwin - not a chance

Cooks

 

 

E2A:  for clarity's sake... yeah, I'd take OBJ, Evans, Julio and Antonio over Cooks.  Between Cooks, Jordy, Thomas and AJ... it's close.  No way in hell I'd take Hopkins, Hilton, Bryant, Pryor, A-Rob, Cooper/Crabtree or Baldwin over Cooks.

Edited May 31, 2017 by darin3

[michaelredd9]

2 hours ago, darin3 said:

 

E2A:  for clarity's sake... yeah, I'd take OBJ, Evans, Julio and Antonio over Cooks.  Between Cooks, Jordy, Thomas and AJ... it's close.  No way in hell I'd take Hopkins, Hilton, Bryant, Pryor, A-Rob, Cooper/Crabtree or Baldwin over Cooks.

 

That's how I have it broken down, too.  Except for I put Evans and maybe even Julio in with Thomas, AJ, Cooks, and Jordy in that 2nd tier.  Evans' stupidity/laziness/character issues scare me.  I do still have Evans as the 4th best receiver but I am praying that I get a top 5 or 6 pick in all my drafts so I don't have to choose between the 2nd tier players for my first round pick.  And the possibility of Cooks being available at the end of the 2nd round makes having a high first round pick even more desirable.

Edited June 1, 2017 by michaelredd9

[Wpob]

As long as he runs the right routes and keeps his mouth shut and stays out of trouble off the field, Cooks will be a fine mid WR#1.  I would just back him up with a high end #2 as I do beleive there will be games Belichick uses him more as a decoy or goes the whole "I'll run it 50 times down your throat" game once in a while.

 

At the end of the year, his numbers should be very solid, but not spectacular. 

His is on my dynasty team, but I am lucky enough to have Julio too so I go that going for me....which is nice. 

[heehawks]

1 minute ago, Wpob said:

His is on my dynasty team, but I am lucky enough to have Julio too so I go that going for me....which is nice. 

 

Gunga galunga...

[michaelredd9]

17 hours ago, Wpob said:

 I would just back him up with a high end #2 as I do beleive there will be games Belichick uses him more as a decoy or goes the whole "I'll run it 50 times down your throat" game once in a while.

 

 

It is possible to hedge your bets by drafting other Patriots players. It'll lower your ceiling but raise your floor an equal amount.   All of the best Patriots players have good value at their current adp.  Gronk has an adp of 22.  Tom Brady and Julian Edelman have 5th round MFL adps.  Mike Gillislee has a 7th round adp.  It'll probably be Gillislee getting the bulk of the carries when the Patriots use a run-first strategy.

[ABearWithFurniture]

56 minutes ago, michaelredd9 said:

...It'll probably be Gillislee getting the bulk of the carries when the Patriots use a run-first strategy.

 

I'm thinking Burkhead...

[michaelredd9]

5 hours ago, LordOpie said:

I think it's a mistake to focus on what a WR does in individual games. Does it really matter how a WR gets his 1173 yards?

 

I agree.  But lots of people on this board think consistency is important.  If a mathematician crunched the numbers it would show that only total points really matter.  Maybe if a fantasy football team only consisted of 2 or 3 players, then consistency would matter more.  But on a team of 10+ players, all the inconsistencies will average out.  Maybe when the playoffs start consistency becomes a little bit more important because one down week can eliminate you.  In the regular season, a down week makes little difference when you only need to win 60% or 70% of your games.

[ABearWithFurniture]

I disagree and think it really matters how a WR got those 1173 yards over a season as stats lie.  If that player got 1000 of those yards in 2 games and 173 in the 14 others, you are totally hosed.  You would sit on 3-4 bad games, bench him til he goes off...then play him for 3-4 more bad games and then bench him til he goes off once again.  In a H2H league you can kiss your ass goodbye with that scenario...and that pretty much describes 80% of the skill players on the Patriots, and why people tend to shy away from most of them. 

[Def.]

18 hours ago, LordOpie said:

I think it's a mistake to focus on what a WR does in individual games. Does it really matter how a WR gets his 1173 yards?

 

Ochocinco anyone? 

[stevegrab]

1 hour ago, ABearWithFurniture said:

I disagree and think it really matters how a WR got those 1173 yards over a season as stats lie.  If that player got 1000 of those yards in 2 games and 173 in the 14 others, you are totally hosed.  You would sit on 3-4 bad games, bench him til he goes off...then play him for 3-4 more bad games and then bench him til he goes off once again.  In a H2H league you can kiss your ass goodbye with that scenario...and that pretty much describes 80% of the skill players on the Patriots, and why people tend to shy away from most of them.

 

It absolutely does matter how they get those points. First off if they're not a top guy on your squad worthy of staritng every game you have more chance to miss lots of their points if their are inconsistent.  Second with regard to any player if they score horribly in the first 10 weeks but go big the last 7 that could sink your squad before the playoffs. 2TD & 100 yards in week 13 when I'm out of playoff contention does me no good.

Cannot believe some long time players don't think consistency is relavent at all.

[stevegrab]

Absurd is saying when points are scored doesn't matter. I've had some great WR (Megatron) who were inconsistent and that cost me wins that hurt my playoffs.

[ABearWithFurniture]

Dude...was just saying that consistency is a fairly crucial element in FF and was 'hopefully' making a point.  Granted, that was a bit extreme but was trying to say a few great games can totally skew a player's stats for a season.  Look at Chris Hogan last year...he's definitely not Brandin Cooks but he was the deep ball specialist for the Patriots playing the outside position. Had a great game the first week, started to decline the following week and then just disappeared the next 2 weeks which is where anyone playing him probably benched him.  Had another decent game in week 5 but was probably sitting on everybody's bench...then disappeared for a few more weeks.  Strung together a few more good weeks, with one really great game in week 14, but if you played him during your playoffs in weeks 15/16 you would have gotten about 2 pts from him each week.  If you correctly figured out what weeks were going to be good then my hat is off to you...you are special!

 

Cooks on the other hand was a bit more consistent in the Saints offense, but quite a bit of his damage came from 4-5 really great games.  I reason he'll be about the same this season in the Patriot's offense and will have some really great games, but just disappear a few others.

 

And I personally was in 14 leagues last year, making the playoffs in 13 of them, and came in 1st place in about 10 of them.  Best season ever!  ...yes, thank you consistency and targeting David Johnson in every one of my drafts.  Think I only missed him in 2...

 

Tom Brady and Blount were the only 2 skill players I targeted from the Patriots, and I did stream the New England D/ST a few times during the season...but again, only really replied to this thread as the lack of consistency in the NEP players for the most part is too few and far to fathom and why Cooks ain't going higher in drafts so far.  I'm sure that will change here soon when most leagues really get going and more people will take a chance with him and drive his price up.  GL with it once again...