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Is Joe Mixon the only truly elite rookie running back?


michaelredd9
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Leonard Fournette is truly a beast.  He will be a running back that makes an impact.   Beasts, unfortunately, do not generally get many receptions and Fournette does not look like an exception.  In PPR, it is not possible to be a tier-one running back without receptions.  Joe Mixon, while a misogynist, is a complete running back.  Real 3-down backs are now a rarity in today's NFL.  Whatever atrocities Joe Mixon committed while in college won't matter if he produces on the field.  The only real worry this year is if the Bengals want to keep Mixon on the bench for a year so that the fans think that he has repented.  Is Joe Mixon the next Le'Veon Bell?

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6 hours ago, darin3 said:

They have the internet in Madagascaar?  What the heck are you doing there?

 

The first hotel I checked in to had horrible internet, smelled musty, and didn't have running water in the morning.  I switched hotels and the internet is zooming at this hotel, it has running water, and no mustiness.  I'm just here travelling.

 

6 hours ago, darin3 said:

Dalvin Cook is an elite rookie RB.

 

6 hours ago, LordOpie said:

McCaffrey has the potential to be what Reggie Bush should've been.

 

I haven't been as excited about the rookie running back pool as this year in a long time.  Fournette is sure to be high carry workhorse, but Mixon, Cook, and McCaffrey are more complete backs all with great receiving skills.  We live in a PPR world.  Receptions are critical to the value of a running back.  I do have trouble seeing Cam throwing to McCaffrey a lot regardless of his elite receiving skills.  Running backs never seem to have high reception totals when paired with quarterbacks that can run.  I'd be far more excited about him if he had landed with an immobile quarterback.  Also, McCaffrey's adp of 31 seems a bit high.  Mixon's adp of 34 isn't great value, either.  But I think he is worth the risk since he has stud potential.  Cook's adp of 53 is most enticing of this group.   Minnesota had a horrible offensive line last year but that can change quickly.  And a running back can still be an elite fantasy running back even with a bad offensive line as long as he gets the touches.  I've never drafted many rookies at any position.  But I can see myself drafting all of these rookie running backs.

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9 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

The first hotel I checked in to had horrible internet, smelled musty, and didn't have running water in the morning.  I switched hotels and the internet is zooming at this hotel, it has running water, and no mustiness.  I'm just here travelling.

 

 

 

I haven't been as excited about the rookie running back pool as this year in a long time.  Fournette is sure to be high carry workhorse, but Mixon, Cook, and McCaffrey are more complete backs all with great receiving skills.  We live in a PPR world.  Receptions are critical to the value of a running back.  I do have trouble seeing Cam throwing to McCaffrey a lot regardless of his elite receiving skills.  Running backs never seem to have high reception totals when paired with quarterbacks that can run.  I'd be far more excited about him if he had landed with an immobile quarterback.  Also, McCaffrey's adp of 31 seems a bit high.  Mixon's adp of 34 isn't great value, either.  But I think he is worth the risk since he has stud potential.  Cook's adp of 53 is most enticing of this group.   Minnesota had a horrible offensive line last year but that can change quickly.  And a running back can still be an elite fantasy running back even with a bad offensive line as long as he gets the touches.  I've never drafted many rookies at any position.  But I can see myself drafting all of these rookie running backs.

 

Fozzy Whittaker had 25 catches last season, the bulk of which when he was getting more regular use in the start of the season when J-Stew was out.  

 

I assume they will use CMac more than the very average Whittaker and his usage won't depend on J-Stew being available.

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18 hours ago, darin3 said:

 

Fozzy Whittaker had 25 catches last season, the bulk of which when he was getting more regular use in the start of the season when J-Stew was out.  

 

I assume they will use CMac more than the very average Whittaker and his usage won't depend on J-Stew being available.

 

And maybe they're going to try to get Cam to do more dump off passes when no receiver is open instead of running it so much.  Ultimately, it'll have to be Cam who decides not to run it.  And my guess is that Cam's stubbornness might prevent him from completely changing the way he plays.  But it's pretty obvious he can't help the Panthers win a Super Bowl if he has a hurt ankle or shoulder when the playoffs arrive.

 

Maybe I'm just being prejudiced because McCaffrey is white.  But the best white fantasy running back last year was Zach Zenner with a robust 93 fantasy points (Danny Woodhead, though, has been fantasy relevant in recent years when he had big receiving numbers).  Stats aren't prejudiced and history is not on McCaffrey's side.  Add to that he on the small side at 202 pounds and has competition from a solid, if unspectacular, veteran in J-Stew.   Rookie running backs usually have to be spectacular in order to completely unseat an incumbent.  So I have trouble seeing McCaffrey as anything more than a part-time back this year.  150 carries and 50 receptions might be his ceiling.  One scenario where McCaffrey could be on the field more and get a higher reception total is if the Panthers use him like the Packers used Ty Montgomery and line him up at wide receiver at times.  The NFL is copycat league and the Packers offense was extremely effective when Montgomery was on the field.

 

The Panthers leading carrier has averaged 194 carries during the Ron Rivera era.  Here are the carry totals of the Panthers' leading carrier during this period:

2011 DeAngelo Williams 155 carries

2012 DeAngelo Williams 173 carries

2013 DeAngelo Williams 201 carries

2014 Jonathan Stewart 175 carries

2015 Jonathan Stewart 242 carries

2016 Jonathan Stewart 218 carries

Edited by michaelredd9
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I don't think anyone is saying CMac is going to be a "full-time" back.  Is there really even a thing nowadays?  Save David Johnson, LeVeon Bell and Zeke Elliott, are there really any workhorse, every-down backs?  I think it's a given that CMac will be part of a committee.  

 

150 carries x (let's just say) 4.5 ypc (fair number I think) ... is 675 rushing yards = 67.5 fantasy points

50 receptions for 500 yards = 100 fantasy points (PPR)

6 total TDs (I think this is conservative) = 36 fantasy points

203.5 points would have made him RB15 in PPR formats last year.  I would take that every day of the week.

 

Edit:  Add in possible return stats, maybe 1-2 more TDs, maybe up to 55-60 catches?  If he's playing the slot a lot, maybe.  Then you're looking at a top-10 back in PPR formats.  Even if he stays at 150 carries.  I can see 160. 10 a game.

 

 

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My worry is 200 fantasy points is McCaffrey's ceiling.  If I draft someone in the 3rd round, I want him to have tier-one potential.  Maybe McCaffrey will only be a 3rd-down back.  And even being the 3rd-down back isn't guaranteed since his pass protection has been roundly criticized.  If his pass protection at the college level was lacking, I doubt it will immediately change at the far more difficult NFL level.  He might be a bit of a project that needs refining before he can be trusted on the field.  Cam Newton's health is way too important to risk with a rookie running back who fails to adequately pass protect.  In redraft, I think McCaffrey has potential flop written all over him.  With Dalvin Cook also lacking in the pass protection department, he might also be on the sidelines waiting his turn.

 

Joe Mixon has great size, is an explosive runner, is a great receiver, and is great at pass protection.  He could be a true 3-down back even as a rookie.  With his skill set and body size, 300 carries and 70 receptions isn't out of the question.  I am worried that the Bengals won't make him a starter right away because of his knocking out of the young lady.  It happened in 2014 but the Bengals fans will have only had a few months to digest it.  Some fans won't like him getting too much, too quickly. They may want him to pay for his sins.  If they have Mixon on the bench to begin the year or even for the entire first year all the while apologizing for what he did, the Bengals fans won't be as upset if he then gets the starting job.  They will have an easier time accepting that he has repented.  But this is the Bengals.  No team in the NFL is as accepting of his kind of behavior as the Bengals with the possible exception of the Cowboys.  He could be the starter from day one.

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13 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

I am worried that the Bengals won't make him a starter right away because of his knocking out of the young lady.  

 

 

Yeah, that keeps me up at night too ... LOL, sorry, I had to be that guy.

 

 

My biggest issue is the Bengals line.  I don't see them getting much mileage out of any of their RB's until they seriously address that.

Edited by kdko
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CMC is the best RB in this class. My only concern is Cam's accuracy and utilizing the dump off more. CMC's talent, desire, passion and work ethic are unquestioned. He's got that Peyton Manning workaholic thing going which is typically the difference between greatness and simply being good. 

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On 6/6/2017 at 7:30 PM, michaelredd9 said:

Leonard Fournette is truly a beast.  He will be a running back that makes an impact.   Beasts, unfortunately, do not generally get many receptions and Fournette does not look like an exception.  In PPR, it is not possible to be a tier-one running back without receptions.  Joe Mixon, while a misogynist, is a complete running back.  Real 3-down backs are now a rarity in today's NFL.  Whatever atrocities Joe Mixon committed while in college won't matter if he produces on the field.  The only real worry this year is if the Bengals want to keep Mixon on the bench for a year so that the fans think that he has repented.  Is Joe Mixon the next Le'Veon Bell?

 

 

Mixon and Cook will both be excellent on the field.  Lets see if their off-the-field problems continue into the NFL.  If not, then they should be good picks.

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On 6/16/2017 at 4:18 PM, Brentastic said:

CMC is the best RB in this class. My only concern is Cam's accuracy and utilizing the dump off more. CMC's talent, desire, passion and work ethic are unquestioned. He's got that Peyton Manning workaholic thing going which is typically the difference between greatness and simply being good. 

 

McCaffrey isn't good at pass protection.  Jonathan Stewart was rated as the best pass blocking running back in the NFL in 2016 by Pro Football Focus.  In late March, Carolina signed Stewart to a 2-year/$8 million contract with an additional $1.5 million available in incentives.  That is big money for a running back in today's NFL.  Since Stewart was signed one month before the draft, you have to figure that Carolina was already eyeing to draft McCaffrey when they signed Stewart.  Jonathan Stewart is going to be the starter and McCaffrey is going to be fighting for scraps.  Carolina might occasionally use both running backs in the same backfield and could be planning some Ty Montgomery type chicanery and use McCaffrey a bit at wide receiver.   But McCaffrey is unlikely to see even 50% of offensive snaps in 2017.  An injury to Stewart is McCaffrey's best hope of fulfilling his 3rd round adp.  Even then, it could be Fozzy Whittaker who gets the call to be the starting running back.

 

 

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Rookie RBs are rarely good at pass pro and CMC was good enough in college and just like all rookies, he will improve in this area. CMC may serve as a backup this season and I'm hyping him as a dynasty prospect more than redraft. That said, I still expect CMC to be fantasy relevant in 2017. It might not happen until week 6 or 8... but I think he's so good they won't be able to keep him off the field. I think the projections of him being a gadget player or slot WR are way off. He is going to be an every down RB in the NFL. 

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23 hours ago, Brentastic said:

Rookie RBs are rarely good at pass pro and CMC was good enough in college and just like all rookies, he will improve in this area. CMC may serve as a backup this season and I'm hyping him as a dynasty prospect more than redraft. That said, I still expect CMC to be fantasy relevant in 2017. It might not happen until week 6 or 8... but I think he's so good they won't be able to keep him off the field. I think the projections of him being a gadget player or slot WR are way off. He is going to be an every down RB in the NFL. 

 

I have an easier time accepting McCaffrey as a shadynasty pick than as a redraft pick.  With Cam Newton ironically being a bad scrambler and being the most blitzed quarterback in the NFL, the Panthers aren't going to trust playing McCaffrey much until he learns to pass protect well.  But you're probably right, McCaffrey's work ethic will allow him to learn how to pass protect well eventually.  But I'm still not sold on him ever being able to become a tier-one running back.  He is small.  It is very rare for a back as small as McCaffrey to get a lot of carries unless he is a special talent.  Hard work only takes a player so far.  But as long as he eventually becomes a back who gets 150 carries along with 70 or 80 receptions, he can still be a top 10 running back.

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1 hour ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

I have an easier time accepting McCaffrey as a shadynasty pick than as a redraft pick.  With Cam Newton ironically being a bad scrambler and being the most blitzed quarterback in the NFL, the Panthers aren't going to trust playing McCaffrey much until he learns to pass protect well.  But you're probably right, McCaffrey's work ethic will allow him to learn how to pass protect well eventually.  But I'm still not sold on him ever being able to become a tier-one running back.  He is small.  It is very rare for a back as small as McCaffrey to get a lot of carries unless he is a special talent.  Hard work only takes a player so far.  But as long as he eventually becomes a back who gets 150 carries along with 70 or 80 receptions, he can still be a top 10 running back.

The thing I keep thinking about with him is that he is most likely going to be thrust into a starting role sooner than later.  Stew just doesn't last a season.  Whether he can block well or not, he's going to play a ton.  I agree with your numbers on the workload though.  He could possibly see those numbers this year.  Might be a stretch but I don't trust Stew's health at all.  McC really isn't that small.  About 200lbs, 5'11 is not tiny.  If he adds a little weight he could be in the 20 touches per game discussion.

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5 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

I have an easier time accepting McCaffrey as a shadynasty pick than as a redraft pick.  With Cam Newton ironically being a bad scrambler and being the most blitzed quarterback in the NFL, the Panthers aren't going to trust playing McCaffrey much until he learns to pass protect well.  But you're probably right, McCaffrey's work ethic will allow him to learn how to pass protect well eventually.  But I'm still not sold on him ever being able to become a tier-one running back.  He is small.  It is very rare for a back as small as McCaffrey to get a lot of carries unless he is a special talent.  Hard work only takes a player so far.  But as long as he eventually becomes a back who gets 150 carries along with 70 or 80 receptions, he can still be a top 10 running back.

Fair enough. I appreciate the discussion. I think CMC will get way more than 150 rushes once he's the starter. That's a really low number for a top 8 NFL pick. He averaged 22 rushes per game in college plus receptions and P/K return duties. I understand college < > NFL, but CMC THRIVED as a between-the-tackles runner in college. I think the Panthers drafted him with similar expectations. 

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The past 3 seasons, the Bengals have been both top 10 in rushing attempts and red zone carries. Mixon no doubt secures the #1 back duties week 1. Add in his superior pass catching/pass blocking and he's a no brainer, 3 down feature back. Cmon....

 

:usa:

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9 minutes ago, tazinib1 said:

The past 3 seasons, the Bengals have been both top 10 in rushing attempts and red zone carries. Mixon no doubt secures the #1 back duties week 1. Add in his superior pass catching/pass blocking and he's a no brainer, 3 down feature back. Cmon....

 

:usa:

 

If JStew hears this we might have some trouble on our hands.   JStew's jealousy could lead to a catfight between Mixon and JStew if the Panthers and Bengals meet in the playoffs (I had already written "catfight" before realizing that both a panther and a bengal are cats).

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