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Will Tyreek Hill be elite?


michaelredd9
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Tyreek Hill only played 40% of offensive snaps last year and yet managed 6 receiving touchdowns and 3 rushing touchdowns in addition to 3 return touchdowns.  Dude was electric.   He has an overall adp of 43 this year which puts him as the 23rd highest wide receiver.  Andy Reid has said he'll be their Z receiver.   My guess is his time at the Z will be limited and they'll line him up at different spots on the field to be unpredictable and to create mismatches.   He'll probably even line up in the backfield a fair amount.  Few gadget players who show promise do end up becoming elite.  Will Tyreek be able to ascend to WR1  status this year with opposing defenses surely focusing on him?

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Hill was a talent and was huge at Oklahoma State while my son was going there (2014). But he beat up his girlfriend and was released from the program. He ended up at the University of West Alabama so was little known going into the draft. He is all around a great player and was a RB, WR and returned with OSU. He'll be used plenty by the Chiefs in various ways. Had he not beaten his girlfriend, he might have been one of the most coveted players in the draft.

 

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People said the same things about Cordarrelle Patterson.  He played 40% of snaps his rookie year and managed to get 9 touchdowns (4 receiving, 3 rushing, 2 return).  Patterson ended up with an MFL adp of 40 in his sophomore year.  People talked about his immense natural talents and how offensive guru Norv Turner was going to use Patterson in a million different ways to get the ball in his hands.  History has not been kind to players who aren't traditional receivers but are labeled "playmakers".  They might take the league by surprise one year but have trouble maintaining a high level when teams game plan for them.   I'll still likely be drafting him because of his high ceiling but I'm not at all confident about the pick.

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4 hours ago, DMD said:

Hill was a talent and was huge at Oklahoma State while my son was going there (2014). But he beat up his girlfriend and was released from the program. He ended up at the University of West Alabama so was little known going into the draft. He is all around a great player and was a RB, WR and returned with OSU. He'll be used plenty by the Chiefs in various ways. Had he not beaten his girlfriend, he might have been one of the most coveted players in the draft.

 

 

I think his size would have slowed the roll a bit, but he certainly would have had DeSean Jackson or Phillip Dorsett hype to him.  I think the lessons of similar guys like Tavon Austin and Dorsett might have come into play though with his draft slot.

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On 6/15/2017 at 11:35 AM, michaelredd9 said:

People said the same things about Cordarrelle Patterson.  He played 40% of snaps his rookie year and managed to get 9 touchdowns (4 receiving, 3 rushing, 2 return).  Patterson ended up with an MFL adp of 40 in his sophomore year.  People talked about his immense natural talents and how offensive guru Norv Turner was going to use Patterson in a million different ways to get the ball in his hands.  History has not been kind to players who aren't traditional receivers but are labeled "playmakers".  They might take the league by surprise one year but have trouble maintaining a high level when teams game plan for them.   I'll still likely be drafting him because of his high ceiling but I'm not at all confident about the pick.

 

good post

 

as i def fell victim to the patterson trap his 2nd year and overdrafted

 

ill def still draft him this year at the right price....or if im feeling really good about what ive done up to that point i might even be willing to go a bit early.....but its def not something id feel totally confident about

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If he was on most other teams I would feel more comfortable with him at his asking price.  There's just something about that Reid/Smith led KC offense and their inability to produce reliable fantasy starters that keeps me away every year.

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5 hours ago, kdko said:

If he was on most other teams I would feel more comfortable with him at his asking price.  There's just something about that Reid/Smith led KC offense and their inability to produce reliable fantasy starters that keeps me away every year.

 

This could be a case where Alex Smith's limitations mesh well with Tyreek Hill's limitations.  Smith can't throw downfield well.  He defines the term dinker-and-dunker.  Hill's bread and butter are short passes and hand-offs.  Hill managed 61 receptions while only playing 40% of offensive snaps last year.  That had to be the best reception-per-snap rate in the NFL.  In the 4 games missed by fellow slot receiver Jeremy Maclin due to injury, Hill grabbed 28 receptions. 

 

I also think the Chiefs will sometimes use Hill as a running back the way the Packers used Ty Montgomery last year.  In week 16, Hill had 6 carries as a running back and managed 95 yards rushing including a 70-yard rushing touchdown.  My guess is they are secretly training Hill on pass protection and the intricacies of playing running back.  Like what happened with the Wildcat formation, I bet a lot of teams are going to copy the Packers and are going to occasionally line up wide receivers in the backfield to make things a bit more complicated for defenses.  If something works in the NFL, you can bet other teams will try it.  The one place I doubt the Chiefs use Hill often is split out wide as the Z receiver even though that is where Andy Reid says he will be using him.  They are going to keep Hill as close to the weak-armed Smith as possible, try to get the ball in Hill's hands in a variety of ways, and let the fastest player in the NFL do his thing.

Edited by michaelredd9
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  • 1 month later...

I'm not touching Hill anywhere near his current ADP. 

 

In redraft, I'm not investing in a gadget player on a low volume offense.

 

In dynasty, I'm not investing in a guy who wasn't the clear focal point of the offense at West Alabama. For me to consider the small school guys, they need to have dominated the offensive production on their college teams.

 

Hill caught a lot of defenses by surprise last year. He's going to have a lot harder time getting free for long runs this year now that they know he's coming.

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On 6/15/2017 at 11:35 AM, michaelredd9 said:

People said the same things about Cordarrelle Patterson.  He played 40% of snaps his rookie year and managed to get 9 touchdowns (4 receiving, 3 rushing, 2 return).  Patterson ended up with an MFL adp of 40 in his sophomore year.  People talked about his immense natural talents and how offensive guru Norv Turner was going to use Patterson in a million different ways to get the ball in his hands.  History has not been kind to players who aren't traditional receivers but are labeled "playmakers".  They might take the league by surprise one year but have trouble maintaining a high level when teams game plan for them.   I'll still likely be drafting him because of his high ceiling but I'm not at all confident about the pick.

 

not to mention that without Maclin, Hill will draw more attention and often from superior CBs.  

ALso, he didn't do much in weeks 15 + 16 with zero receptions and 8 targets.  With Hill, you'll be relying on return TDs and the occasional running play.  Defenses will be prepared for it.  He's being overdrafted IMO.  Some of my leagues get 1 pt/25 return yards, so that adds value as long as they have him returning on ST.

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8 hours ago, BA Baracus said:

I'm not touching Hill anywhere near his current ADP. 

 

In redraft, I'm not investing in a gadget player on a low volume offense.

 

In dynasty, I'm not investing in a guy who wasn't the clear focal point of the offense at West Alabama. For me to consider the small school guys, they need to have dominated the offensive production on their college teams.

 

Hill caught a lot of defenses by surprise last year. He's going to have a lot harder time getting free for long runs this year now that they know he's coming.

 

:tup:

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On 7/30/2017 at 11:30 AM, BA Baracus said:

I'm not touching Hill anywhere near his current ADP. 

 

In redraft, I'm not investing in a gadget player on a low volume offense.

 

In dynasty, I'm not investing in a guy who wasn't the clear focal point of the offense at West Alabama. For me to consider the small school guys, they need to have dominated the offensive production on their college teams.

 

Hill caught a lot of defenses by surprise last year. He's going to have a lot harder time getting free for long runs this year now that they know he's coming.

This is where I struggle with him.  I just don't see them throwing down the field that much.  However, if they use him right and just get him the ball any way possible, he could explode. Worth a mid round pickup IMO.  Dude can be dangerous.

Edited by NAUgrad
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