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How many teams are going to copy the Ty Montgomery strategy?


michaelredd9
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The Packers offense did not look good at the start of last year.  Rodgers completed only 56% of his passes in the first 4 games of the season.  As soon as the Packers started using Montgomery as a running back, their offense did far better.  The difference was night and day.  Montgomery averaged 5.9 yards per carry including 7.0 yards per carry on first down.  But the effect he had was much greater than just his rushing and receiving stats.  Defenses had a hard time adjusting when Montgomery went in motion and became a wide receiver.  The entire Packers offense played much better when he was on the field.  From the 5th game onward, Rodgers didn't have a game where he completed less than 60% of his passes.

 

The NFL is a league of copycats.  If something is effective, teams will be sure to copy it.  Tyreek Hill started getting snaps in the backfield starting in week 16 of last year and was very effective.  Alvin Kamara has been working with the Saints' wide receivers group.  Christian McCaffrey was the 8th pick in the draft.  Are all of these players plus a bunch of others going to be used like Ty Montgomery?   From the 5th game onward, Montgomery scored 140.5 fantasy points in PPR.  That point total would put him at 15th overall for running backs during that span.  Had he not had problems with sickle cell trait, his point total could have been much higher.

 

The press hasn't been talking about teams using this strategy much.  My guess is that a lot of teams are going to try the strategy but are keeping it a secret in order to take teams by surprise.  Teams might even wait until the regular season to begin using this strategy.  Personally, I think this is going to be more effective and long lasting than the Wildcat.  The Wildcat had a quarterback as a bad wide receiver and a running back as a quarterback who couldn't throw well.  It didn't really add much complexity.  In fact, it took away complexity since it was pretty much known that the running back was going to run.  Defenses adjusted quickly and the Wildcat was a short-lived phenomenon.  If a player can legitimately play both running back and wide receiver, the Ty Montgomery strategy adds a complexity that isn't gimmicky.  Modern NFL offenses are all about complexity.  I think this strategy will stay.  Fantasywise, the question is if any teams will use this strategy as much as the Packers did last year.  If so, the effect on fantasy could be huge.

 

Edited by michaelredd9
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It's true that there aren't many players that can legitimately play both running back and wide receiver.  Honestly, I didn't even think that Ty Montgomery looked very good at running back.  He played upright and stiff.  But it's hard to argue with results.  I think the transition from wide receiver to running back is an easier since wide receiver is a more complicated position.  But few wide receivers will be able to handle the pounding that a running back takes.  Some teams might use a wide receiver at running back for 5 or 10 snaps a game in order to limit the hits.

 

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The Packers have a great fullback, Aaron Ripkowski, but they usually used Ty Montgomery in the backfield alone.  Montgomery mostly ran to the edge and didn't run much between the tackles.  Most receivers probably don't have the skill-set to run effectively behind a blocking fullback as a power back.  Also, when a single set back lines up in the backfield but switches to wide receiver, the defense goes from playing against the run to not playing against the run and having to deal with 5 receivers on the line of scrimmage.  That is a more extreme switch for the defense to adjust than when there is still a fullback in the backfield.  Playing with an empty backfield does mean the quarterback needs to be effective playing without pass protection in 5 receiver/tight end sets.  The Packers did use Ripkowski as a single set back since Montgomery had issues with pass protection.  Montgomery didn't see the field much on 3rd down.  Hopefully, he gets better at pass protection with an off-season of work.  But if this strategy can be effective with Montgomery having clear flaws due to inexperience, it could become even more effective after a player has had time to become more well-rounded.

Edited by michaelredd9
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Hmmm...I saw something completely different.  Montgomery was fairly effective in a few games as a RB, mostly against inferior defenses (Seattle being about the lone exception) until the novelty wore off and teams had tape on him.  The Packers could just about run anyone at RB and have some success every now and then given their prolific passing attack being so superior.  After a few games Montgomery pretty much sucked as a RB and most likely why GB drafted 3 rookies and got 2 more from the UDFA.  Any NFL team trying to copy anything from the Packers would be wise to figure out where they could get an Aaron Rodgers from, not a Ty Montgomery.

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Montgomery was frustrating from a fantasy perspective because his touches were severly limited because of his sickle cell trait.  His kidney was bleeding after his relatively high use in weeks 7 and 8.  Teams don't take sickle cell trait lightly.  But Montgomery never stopped being effective when he was in there.  Over the last 5 weeks of the season he ran the ball 48 times for 310 yards for an average of 6.45 yards per carry.  And his impact went beyond just his high yards per carry.  The whole offense played better when he was on the field.  That doesn't necessarily translate to fantasy stats but it won't go unnoticed by other NFL teams.

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Just now, ABearWithFurniture said:

If he was so effective, why did GB go out and essentially grab 5 rookie RBs in the draft?  Gimmicky running games generally generate a few good twitches here and there, but over the long haul of a season will mostly just sink the ship...JMHO.

 

He has sickle cell trait.  It's not an injury that heals over the off-season.  Montgomery probably won't be getting more than 10 carries most games.  Someone else needs to carry the rock the other 10 or 20 times a game.  I won't touching Montgomery in any fantasy drafts at his current adp.

 

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3 minutes ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

Montgomery probably won't be getting more than 10 carries most games.  Someone else needs to carry the rock the other 10 or 20 times a game.  I won't touching Montgomery in any fantasy drafts at his current adp.

 

 

So you are saying even you don't have that much faith in his abilities and yet you are wondering why other actual NFL team don't try to copy this 'strategy'? Okay...I'll just move along now. :) 

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Just now, ABearWithFurniture said:

 

So you are saying even you don't have that much faith in his abilities and yet you are wondering why other actual NFL team don't try to copy this 'strategy'? Okay...I'll just move along now. :) 

 

Ty Montgomery had the highest yards per carry in the NFL in 2016.  The whole offense looked way better when he was on the field.  But because I think his touches will be limited because of his sickle cell trait, you think I am doubting his abilities?  I think you have some reading comprehension issues.

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I think the Chiefs tried this at one point. What's his name again? Gimmick players have a place on some teams but we all know there is no way a player who is converting to RB, especially from the WR position, will be able to withstand the punishment legit RBs have done their entire career. It's a great story, nothing more. 

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The Chiefs tried it last year with Tyreek Hill in weeks 16, 17 and the first week of the playoffs.  He had 12 carries for 128 yards from the running back position.  Maybe you are referring to Dexter McCluster or Dante Hall?  There have always been athletic, but unskilled gadget players who have been used in different spots.  What makes Ty Montgomery different is that he has legitimate receiver skills.  Also, putting Montgomery in motion to create a 5 receiver set throws defenses for a loop.  Most teams used to normally use 2 running backs.  Now, in this passing era, teams usually use 1 running back.  The natural evolution might be to go to a half of a running back.

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The highest yards per carry in the NFL?  He only carried the ball 77 times over 13 games for the entire season, and in 6 of those games (almost half) he had a total of 18 carries for 40 yards.  That equates to about 2.22 yards per carry.  So in the other 7 games yes, he did have a few big games and a few long runs in some others.  The entire season he had only one game where GB gave him more than 9 carries and that was against the Bears in week 15, his biggest game of the season.  My basset hounds could easily run over the Bears defense...  

 

 

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23 minutes ago, ABearWithFurniture said:

The highest yards per carry in the NFL?  He only carried the ball 77 times over 13 games for the entire season, and in 6 of those games (almost half) he had a total of 18 carries for 40 yards.  That equates to about 2.22 yards per carry.  So in the other 7 games yes, he did have a few big games and a few long runs in some others.  The entire season he had only one game where GB gave him more than 9 carries and that was against the Bears in week 15, his biggest game of the season.  My basset hounds could easily run over the Bears defense...  

 

 

 

There should be a name for the fallacy of cherry picking weeks.  If you take away the best 7 weeks out 13 for most running backs, they are going to average 2.22 yards per carry or less.  Two of the weeks you are counting were where he wasn't even playing running back, yet.  So really you are looking at his worst 4 weeks.  And then to cherry pick to the point where you are looking at the games of his worst 18 carries of the year is ridiculous.  If 77 carries is such a small sample size, why would you look at the 18 carries in his worst games?  All running backs are going to get bigger stats against weak competition.  The Bears run defense gave up 4.4 yards per carry which was 20th in the league.  Montgomery also had 9 carries for 41 yards against Seattle who had the number one run defense.  On the whole, he had the highest yards per carry in the league.  Your cherry picking can't change that.  The bigger issue is the effect he had on the Packers as a whole.  The offense looked so much better when he was in the game.  Any Packers fan who watched the games can tell you the impact he made.

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1 minute ago, ABearWithFurniture said:

lol...cherry picking, that's funny coming from this thread.  So, basically you are saying of all the converted WRs to RBs last year, which I think there was only 1 (Ty Montgomery), he had the highest YPC of all of them.  Okay, I guess I see your logic... :rolleyes:

 

No, Ty Montgomery had the highest yards per carry for any running back in the NFL in 2016.

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12 minutes ago, ABearWithFurniture said:

 

Actually, that would have been Danny Woodhead...since we aren't cherry picking and the sample size has absolutely no value.

 

Montgomery played in 50% of overall offensive snaps in the 11 games he played at running back.  374 snaps is not a small sample size.

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What does 'overall offensive snaps' have to do with YPC?  You were trying to say that Montgomery had the highest YPC of any RB in the NFL last season, and the low number of carries didn't seem to matter and I was 'cherry picking' for mentioning that.

 

It's fairly pointless arguing with you I can see so I'm going to stop...I just started laughing out loud when I read your title 'Ty Montgomery Strategy' and spit out some of my coffee this morning.  I guess what some see as a strategy others see as complete and utter desperation since they totally ran out of viable RBs a few weeks into the season.  Even GB isn't trying to 'copy' that again this year if the draft was any indication... 

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2 minutes ago, ABearWithFurniture said:

What does 'overall offensive snaps' have to do with YPC?  You were trying to say that Montgomery had the highest YPC of any RB in the NFL last week, and the low number of carries didn't seem to matter and I was 'cherry picking' for mentioning that.

 

 

Yards per carry is one stat.  The bigger impact he had is that the whole Packers offense flourished when he was on the field which was 50% of the time.  That is something teams will try to copy.

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lol...now I'm intentionally being obtuse.  That's rich...I just found it funny that anyone would call running out of RBs a strategy and would try to emulate it.  I saw it more as the Packers offensive coach went to the weekly RB meeting one week and he was the only one there, and said "ah hell, where are we going to get us some more RBs?" 

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8 hours ago, ABearWithFurniture said:

lol...now I'm intentionally being obtuse.  That's rich...I just found it funny that anyone would call running out of RBs a strategy and would try to emulate it.  I saw it more as the Packers offensive coach went to the weekly RB meeting one week and he was the only one there, and said "ah hell, where are we going to get us some more RBs?" 

 

You argue like a 12 year old.  It's tiring listening to your straw man arguments.  It turns what could be a productive dialogue into a bickering match.  Grow up.

 

The Packers used a strategy out of desperation that ended up being extremely effective.  It was serendipitous.  Necessity is the mother of invention.  The Packers would have liked to have used Montgomery far more but couldn't because of a genetic condition.  It's not a criticism of the strategy.  It's a criticism of his health.  The games where he did play the majority of the snaps he did excellently and the whole Packers offense excelled.  That will not go unnoticed in the NFL.

 

Ty Montgomery is the only Packers running back returning from last year.  No veteran free agent running backs have been signed.  It is Montgomery and a bunch of rookies who were drafted on the 3rd day of the draft.  The Packers are going to use the hybrid rb/wr strategy again.  Two of the Packers rookie draft picks could even be used in the Montgomery role.  Deangelo Yancey is a powerful receiver that is a Ty Montgomery clone.  He is 6'1" and 220 pounds.  He has great hands but is a bad route runner.  He wasn't invited to the combine and was a surprise pick in the 5th round.  Aaron Jones was also a 5th round pick at running back who is described as having wide receiver skills.  In fact, he was a star wide receiver in high school before being converted to running back.

 

I'm not saying that teams are going to use this strategy 100% of the time.  It can be an effective strategy when it is used 50% of the time or even 10% of the time.  Strategies don't need to be 100% or 0%.  Teams probably don't even know how much they'll use it.  But they are going to try it.  And if it proves effective, they'll use it more.

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You are the only one arguing...again I just found it highly comical that anyone could look at running out of RBs as a strategy, and hysterically funny that you'd presume that any of the other 31 NFL teams would want to emulate that.  It then gets even funnier when you then try to somehow back up this 'strategy' theory by stringing up a bunch of useless stats to try and support it.  More hilarity ensues when a few folks actually buy into it... :pop:

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22 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

No, Ty Montgomery had the highest yards per carry for any running back in the NFL in 2016.

 

Haven't we seen that before though, with the backup RB on a team, like Michael Turner I think it was with the Chargers behind LT. Can he produce again this year and have the highest YPC or be near the top?

 

It is true that Ty played RB out of desperation/necessity and that alone with some amount of success could make an offense with talent like GB to play much better.

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