College betting! What do you look for?

[zeeman]

I am sitting here watching the end of the T.Tech NM game. I saw a NM team that is clearly overmatched by TTech especially WR vs Corners. Those of you who be the game, why did you pick this game? Did you know TT WR's clearly overmatch the NM corners?

 

Is there an art to prognositcation on football? Some people will have you believe they are professional prognosticators, and some people pay people to give advice on who to pick.

 

Just curious to whether you go with a gut feeling, do you watch the games to get a feel for the strength of each team, do you look at trends? Home/Away? Is their a method to this madness? Have you ever payed for a picking service?

 

I am by no means a prognosticator(A little better than 50%), but I do try to figure it out. I look at strength of teams I have watched on the tube, then I look at their schedule of who they have beat, but most of all I look at big games just won and let downs the next week. This week Florida is Favored by 19 over KY at home. I'm hoping for a let down, Although I wish the spread was 25. So $5 bucks says the theory holds true.

So much for high stakes gambling. I think a little different on Pro Football.

[Guest TNtitan]

this is a complicated thing. but if you are patient and stick with it you pick up a lot. how vegas works, how people move the lines and what to look for. there is a lot to soak in. and dont kid yourself, the house always wins. you are really trying to stay a few games ahead by smart picking. remember too that professionals are only right 60% to 68% of the time. shocking i know but the truth. so the high rollers lose a lot of games also. so learn from your loses and brag on your wins!! good luck.

[crispirons]

there are many things to consider when betting college football. i'm no professional, but have been doing it for 15-20 yrs. personally, i have a magazine that shows each team and their depth chart. i love looking for mismatches on the line of scrimmage. say toledo is playing western michigan. i see the right side of toledo's offensive line is 300 + pounds a man. western michigans defensive front averages 265 lbs. i see that as a big advantage in the ground game. i like to stick to what i know as well. i follow big 10 football the most so i wager alot of those games. last week was 3-0 and i followed it up with this week 3-0. (purdue +8.5 against iowa, northwestern +25 against ohio st. andpenn st. +2 against wisconsin)i noticed that i also like to bet non televised games. if i do bet a televised game, i go against the public usually. next week i will make my big 10 predictions here so u guys can verify how well i am doing with it. maybe bet a few bucks yourself. what i hate, is having a killer day on saturday(college) and then pis sing away my profit on sunday (pro).

[zeeman]

After scouring the web, for handicapping info this past week, I've become alot more educated. I usually only bet $5 to $20 on various games on the weekend. I am just testing myself to see if I am any good at this. I have had good success on the $5 games. I am 10-1. My problem seems to be money management. I think some games are locks and they are not. I am 3-4 when placing more than $5. Therefore I am going to treat all games equal.

 

Here are a few tidbits from one of the sites I was reading.

 

"Every year in college football there will be a half dozen or more teams that come out of nowhere and finish the season as huge moneywinners for their backers, covering the spread at a 75% clip or higher. One easy way of making money every year in college football betting is to identify these teams early and ride them over and over again, all season long. The four teams listed above all showed their colors very early in 2002, right from the get-go. Air Force won their season opener against Northwestern 52-3, covering the spread by 48 points. Missouri upset Illinois in their opener, winning straight up as a 7.5 point underdog, covering the spread by 21 points. Bowling Green handed Missouri their first loss of the season 51-28, covering the spread by 26 points. Kentucky started the season out with a huge upset win over Louisville, covering the spread by 18 points. Clearly, each of these teams was playing far better than the linesmakers and bettors expected coming right out of the gate.

 

With non-public teams, the linesmaker can be slow to adjust. Missouri has covered four out of their five lined games, as has Kentucky. Bowling Green is 3-0 against the number. Air Force is 5-0 ATS. Even into October, these four teams were each able to cover the spread in their latest game. None are on the national radar screen; all still hold value for their backers, although not even close to the value they held a month ago. That being said, no surprise here if each of these teams has a winning ATS record from now through the end of the season, barring serious injury troubles, despite the adjustment to their price from the linesmakers. Bottom line is this – they are all good teams, and good teams cover the spread far easier than bad teams do.

 

Each team has another characteristic – an offense that can score points in bunches. Teams that are going to have ATS success throughout the course of the season are going to have to lay bigger and bigger wood as their perception among bettors is altered. When looking for these good value small program schools to back, look for an offense that score points. Bowling Green is 4th in the nation in scoring offense. Kentucky is 11th. Both Missouri and Air Force average over 35 points per game. As long as the offenses keep producing like that, there’s no reason to expect these teams to start struggling versus the spread. While defenses win championships, strong offenses from lesser tier programs cover pointspreads – just ask anyone who’s backed teams like Middle Tennessee State or Boise State over the past couple of years."

[zeeman]

I originally posted this a month and 1/2 ago and have been to many handicapping sites since and discovered quite a bit.

 

#1. Never pay for a handicapping pick unless you have solid information that they a have a good track record. If you know of a handicapper that has a good track record, let me know. I would like to know who they are.

 

#2 Handicappers that advertise are sometimes known as scamdicappers. Some advertise they have a record of 20-5 Against the spread, which is an incredible record, but keep in mind the spreads change every day. An example - Lets say Colorado Is playing Iowas State at home and Colorado is initially favored by 6.5 pts. (Bettors see the line and they know CU will win easily) and the line goes up to CU-9.5 The game is played and Colorado wins by 7 pts. scamdicappers will count any win by CU from 7 pts to 9 pts. Meanwhile the betting public was stuck with the line being CU at around 9 pts and you the public loses. The scamdicappers will claim they won. They always advertise their winners, but never account for their losers.

 

#3 Good Professional handicappers are only right 60-68% of the time. So you are correct TnTitan. Most free plays on the websites are not even that accurate, unless you find one that is accurate and ride him for the season.

 

#4 Betting is always a gamble, but college is always easier to predict than the pros. If you are are a gambler try (I can't resist sometimes) to stay away from the NFL and stick to college. Do not bet on the highest profile game of the weak unless you have an edge in stats and trends. Locks advertised on the radio and websites are bull$hit. Nothing is a lock unless you have traveled into the future and come back. NFL games are even more of crapshoot.

 

Anyways I thought I'd share this if anyone cares. I have never paid for a service, but have seen many posts from other sites that have paid for a service and been dissapointed. I have done quite well in the college ranks by doing some research of the games myself, but sometimes I follow someone else's lead that I have faith in.

 

Just some thoughts, I post some teams on this board that I like, but this is a gamble like everthing else you do in life.

[Shakenbake]

To be honest...I watch and wager on a ton of college football games, and although I did not know too much about NM, aside from the fact that they sucked...I did know that Texas Tech loves to run it up, and in the past two years Kingsberry has made NM his b*tch....TTech also scores a lot at home....

 

I do not think there is any subsitute to watching as many games as you can and getting a feel for certain teams....I usually bet for or against the same group of teams every week because I feel I know how each will prefer, and which team will show up.