BC@ WVU and ISU@KState

[zeeman]

I see these two so far. I have ran the numbers for two games that I think are off.

 

BC @ WV -3.

BC has two factors going against them. 1. The letdown factor after a big win over overated Notre Dame and the rushing game edge. WV and BC have alternated home wins by a big margin in the last 4 years. WV is at home and has the rushing advantage. 5.2 per att vs BC de 4.1. BC 3.9 per att vs WV de 3.0. I'll give BC a slight passing advantage, but I see WV rolling by 2 TD's.

 

The other game, I hate to admit it because I dislike Kansas State. KState is favored by 12 and have been covering quite well at home. KState is 6-0 ATS at home, meanwhile Iowa ST. is 2-1 ATS away from home. They have only played Texas,Ok St. and Iowa away from home. The Iowa game was a great win, but it was back in September, but they lost to OK 49-3, Texas 21-10 recently.

KState is #1 in the predictor rating of the Sagarin Ratings Meanwhile Iowas St is rated 22. Anyways I see another blowout for KSTate. They have all the advantages Passing Yds per Att, rush per att, Scoring, All stats are off vs de.

 

Any other thoughts?

edit- bad title

[Steeltown Dre]

This Saragain stuff is new to me, but the way I read it was:

 

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of

the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home

team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 92 would be

favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 90.

Or a VISITING team with a rating of 89 would be favored by 7 points

over a HOME team having a rating of 79.

 

It also says to use whatever home advantage you want (3 was used in the previous example). So if you read the ratings, K St = 86.88 and Iowa St = 84.65. So that is 2 points difference, and K St is favored by 13? So are you saying their home advantage is at least 11?

[zeeman]

Ok, the KState line might be about right, the stuff I was looking at were the offensive and defensive statistics. KState is a hot team right now and Iowa St. seems to have peaked at the beginning of the season and is on their way down.

 

I wouldn't read too much into the Sagarin stuff It seems like a good tool for evaluating teams you know nothing about and the line comes very close to the predictor rating at the far right. KState= 92.64 Iowa St is 83.48. A differnce of 9 points. I give KState a 3 point advantage for being at home. That makes the line 12. I just give KState the nod in all the stats I compared.