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Predicting Miami's rank aver V Tech loss


KevinL
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KSU predicts Miami will probably still be ranked ahead of Ohio State.

 

Current ESPN/USA Today rankings:

1 - Oklahoma - W

2 - Miami - L

3 - USC - W

4 - Georgia - L

5 - Florida State - W

6 - Washington State - L

7 - Ohio State - W

8 - LSU - W

9 - Nebraska - L

10 - Michigan State - L

11 - Virginia Tech - W

12 - Michigan - W

 

I don't think there's any question Georgia & Washington State will fall below Ohio State.

 

That puts Ohio State at #5, unless Virginia Tech or Michigan pass Ohio State based on their victories over higher ranked teams.

 

Miami would then have to fall 3 spots or less to stay ranked ahead of Ohio State. Let's now look at some recent top 5 teams and their first loss.

 

Week 5: Texas (8 spots) 5 -> 13

Week 6: Michigan (5 spots) 5 -> 10

Week 7: USC (7 spots) 3 -> 10

Week 9: Ohio State (5 spots) 3 -> 8

Week 9: Florida State (2 spots) 5 -> 7

Week 11: Virginia Tech (8 spots) 3 -> 11

 

What's the difference with Florida State? Why did they fall only 2 spots? They lost to a higher ranked team (#2 Miami).

 

There is no precedent for Miami to fall 3 spots or less. They will probably be ranked in the 6-8 area, after Ok, USC, FSU, OSU, LSU. Possibly after VT & Michigan.

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My understanding of K State's remarks, and thus my post, were in reference to poll ranking, not BCS standings. But hey I will take a shot and list my top ... um ... 15 (wink wink Sarge) for the BCS Standings.

 

1 Oklahoma

2 Fla State

3 USC

4 Ohio State

5 Miami

6 LSU

7 Iowa

8 TCU

9 Michigan

10 Virginia Tech

11 Georgia

12 Texas

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Miami's tough to predict but I'm guessing they may slot in ahead of OSU, but behind FSU and USC, in the next BCS. If OSU wins out (that's a BIG if) they'll gain some ground due to improved SOS, but will still need at least 1 (if not 2) losses above them to crack the top 2.

 

Everyone below OSU will be out of the picture, barring a 2001 Nebraska-sized miracle.

 

My personal top 5 would be:

OU

USC

Miami

FSU

OSU

 

But that's not to say the BCS will look that way on Monday...

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Kansas State 2000:

Poll rankings mean little now it's the BCS that matters and I think Miami will still probably   wink    be ranked ahead of Ohio State.

 

My BCS prediction:

OU

USC

FSU

Miami

OSU

Yeah, I kinda think the same thing KSU. USC is clearly the #2 IMO. After that things are a bit muddled. If Pitt can beat Tech next week and Miami can win out, coupled with a 'Noles loss, maybe the 'Canes will move back to 3 but that's it. I can forsee a Miami/OSU re-match in a BCS bowl. Maybe the Rose. I just don't see OU or USC loosing from here on out.
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If Miami falls below FSU in the BCS, there is something seriously WRONG with the system. How can one team be ranked above the one it lost to if both teams have only one loss? Is it because FSU's loss was to the then-#2-ranked Canes and Canes lost to a lower ranked VaTech? So what??

 

If head-to-head is not the first tiebreaker, someone needs to take the BCS out back and shoot it right now.

 

And if you pay attention to these boards, you know I'm a big Trojan fan, so its all good... :D

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There is no such thing as tiebreaker. Head to head sounds simple when there are 2 teams involved, but since there are many more, the BCS uses a point system and gives point for Quality Wins, wins over other top 10 BCS teams.

 

However, if FSU is ahead in the polls and the computer rankings, and they have similar strenght of schedule ratings, the QW deduction is probably not going to override those 2 factors.

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IF thats the case

 

Va Tech beat Miami

Miami beat FSU

 

all 3 have 1 loss

 

Va Tech should be ranked ahead of Miami as well, and why arent they, they just whipped their ass, FSU should be ranked behind Miami as they lost to them

 

 

Thus the BCS should be

 

 

1. OU

2. USC

3. Va Tech

4. Miami

5. FSU

6. LSU

 

 

But that wont be the case. All 5 of those 1 loss teams are about the same imo. USC has played very well as of late, but Cal beat them, and Cal just inst very good.

 

Id put the 3 ACC schools (next yr anyway) in the order I listed them, and LSU defense is just amazing. After the top 6, no other team deserves consideration for the top 2 spots, unless 5 of the 6 have 2 loses by the time the Sugar arrives.

 

 

If thats the case, Texas or Michigan could get back into the hunt, but after those 2 no one else has a chance in hell.....

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Kevin is right about the number of teams going head-to-head: it gets tough when a bunch of the top 10 play each other and different teams keep winning! But, the BCS still sucks compared to a playoff system taking the top 8 or 16 teams and settling it on the field.

 

Right now, maybe some other team "deserves" it more (whatever that means!) than USC, but no other team would give the Sooners D a challenge for 60 minutes like the Trojans. At least it would be good TV - the history, the speed, etc. If Miami or FSU gets in with Berlin or Rix, YAWN...Sooners in a long, boring romp.

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Official BCS Week 3:

1 - Oklahoma - 2.24

2 - USC - 7.02

3 - Florida State - 9.52

4 - Miami - 10.25

5 - Ohio State - 11.47

6 - Virginia Tech - 12.47

7 - LSU - 14.92

8 - Michigan - 20.79

9 - TCU - 24.75

10 - Georgia - 25.15

11 - Iowa - 25.6

12 - Texas - 30.59

 

K State nailed the top 5, congrats!!!

 

dave got 3 and mixed up Miami & FSU.

 

Sarge had 11 of the top 12 listed in his top 12, got 4 right (Ok, USC, VT, Mich), 5 off by 1 (Mia, FSU, Ga, Ia, Ten) and 3 off by 2 (OSU, LSU, TCU). Very good job!

 

I had the right top 12 but in the wrong order. I had only 1 dead on (Oklahoma). I had 9 teams within 1 spot of correct, but I totally misplaced Iowa & Virginia Tech by 4 slots each.

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