National Championship Odds

[davearm]

I did some back-of-the-envelope joint probability calculations to project the odds of various teams winning the National Championship, and thought I'd throw the numbers out as food for thought. Feel free to discuss and dissect.

 

Basic Assumptions

* Oklahoma is headed to the Sugar Bowl regardless of the outcome of the Big 12 Championship.

* USC, LSU, and Michigan are the only teams still alive for the other spot in the Sugar.

* If both LSU and USC win out, there's a 30%chance that LSU will pass USC in the BCS standings.

 

Game Assumptions

* USC has an 80% chance of winning its final game vs. Oregon St.

* LSU has a 70% chance of beating Arkansas, and a 60% chance of winning the SEC Championship Game.

* In the Sugar, Oklahoma would have a 70% chance of beating USC, and an 80% chance of beating either LSU or Michigan.

 

When I crunched those numbers, I came up with these outcomes:

* USC has a 69.9% chance of reaching the Sugar, and a 21.0% chance of winning the NC.

* LSU has an 18.5% chance of making it, and a 3.7% chance of winning.

* Michigan is at 11.6% and 2.3%.

* Oklahoma's probability of winning the NC is 73.0% (48.9% chance it's over USC; 14.8% it's over LSU, and 9.3% it's over Michigan).

 

Translated to Vegas-style odds, that makes Oklahoma roughly a 1:3 favorite (bet $300 to win $100); USC is at ~5:1 (bet $100 to win $500); LSU is ~27:1, and Michigan is ~43:1.

 

So who would you be putting your money on? Sure everyone expects that OU will cruise to the title, but would you take those lopsided odds at this point?

 

And would anyone put a hondo on Michigan in hopes of hitting the $4300 mother lode?

[Sgt. Ryan]

Stoops vs top 10 competition is somewhere in the neighborhood of 12-1 in his tenure at OU. Stoops is 3-1 in bowl games losing his first, 5 seasons ago.

 

You give Stoops and Co a month to prepare for any game and Im quite confident the best coachign staff in America will exploit your team in multiple ways. Id honestly bet OU if they were giving up 3 Touchdowns or less over anyone who makes it to the NC game. USC in my opinion hasnt beat anyone of quality this far. The Pac-10 is very very weak this yr. I honestly believe if Mike Stoops goes to Arizona they will become the cream of the crop of this conference in 3 yrs and this is a program that is currently teh bottom 20 in the nation.

 

 

A great coach cannot be overlooked. Lets take a lil stroll to the NFL. The Dallas Cowboys were coming off 3 consecutive 5-11 seasons before Parcells took over this past yr. With Quincy Carter as their QB and Troy Hambrick as the RB this team after 11 weeks is the #1 seed in the NFC. Can you tell me anyone, even myself would have ever believed this was possible. Do I believe Dallas is the best team in teh NFC. Probably not, but I think they could go pretty far on Parcells coat tails and Stoops is the same type of coach. Throw in some of the best talent in college football and you see why this team is basically unstoppable this yr. And whats scary is every starter but 4 are returning next yr including the whole WR core, OL, QB and 8 of 11 on defense. I also agree USC is a very young team as well. So this game if it happens could be for another title next yr as well.

[davearm]

Good point on coaches Ryan. You're probably not going to like hearing this, but Tressel is another fine example of a difference-making coach. OSU has had better talent in years past under John Cooper, but nevertheless Tressel elevated that program to new heights very quickly.

 

Pete Carroll at USC would probably match wits with Stoops pretty well. Saban would be close too, but he's a better recruiter than Xs and Os guy probably.

 

Lloyd Carr would be a colossal mismatch. Did you happen to catch that interview with him entering the tunnel at halftime of the OSU game?

 

ABC guy: "Coach Carr, why did you choose kneel down and run out the clock there at the end of the half?"

Carr: "Why would you ask such a dumb question?"

ABC guy: "Well you got the ball in good field position with 44 seconds left and timeouts remaining. It seems you had an opportunity to try to move the ball into field goal position."

Carr: <Confused pause, then shakes his head and walks away>

 

My jaw dropped when I saw it.

[Sgt. Ryan]

I agree on Tressel, hes more of a field position General like Parcells than a risk taker like Stoops. Without Tressel in Buckeyeland this team would be a 500% team with the talent on that roster.

 

 

And Carr did look like a fool. The halftime guys gave him the business saying he should have answered the question. I really wanted them to lose the game after that. Mostly because I wanted to see OU play OSU.

 

Im not sure Carroll is that good of a coach. He a great recruiter, but if Carroll was so good, why has he had so many jobs along the way. Hes got a sweet gig now at U of Spoiled Children, and I think he will stay there for some time. Im hoping Stoops stays at OU for 20 yrs. He could become another legend if he did. But hes all about challenges and the NFL will come calling one day and offer him 5 mil a yr and he'll leave the Lil Heaven of Norman OK.

[Sgt. Ryan]

BTW, I dont hate OSU near as much as rose colored glasses fans that post without logic about their team. Am I guilty of the same thing from time to time, sure. But Team Primos takes the cake in this subject.

[davearm]

Sgt. Ryan:

Im hoping Stoops stays at OU for 20 yrs.  He could become another legend if he did.  But hes all about challenges and the NFL will come calling one day and offer him 5 mil a yr and he'll leave the Lil Heaven of Norman OK.

I'm not so sure. The Reilly piece on Stoops in SI a few weeks ago made it seem like he has achieved a pretty ideal balance at OU, and plans to stay.

SI Article

[Coffeeman]

SgtRyan, you almost had me agreeing with you until your lame "I'm not sure if Carroll is that great of a coach" comment, and using the NFL as proof. What?! The NCAA is not the NFL, ask Ball Coach Steve Spurious - and Carroll has found a place he can thrive. The momentum is very strong - I just checked the Top Recruits website, and guess which school is #1 or #2 besides the Sooners for committments from the best kids all over the country? How can you possibly separate being a good recruiter from being a good coach??

 

Do you have any idea what you are talking about? He brought the program back from the abyss of barely .500 seasons (under Paul "Can't" Hackett,) in just 1 year, going from 7-5 to 11-2 and winning the Orange, and now onto at least the Rose and maybe the Sugar - he can't coach?

 

I think he has had one slip up in 3 years, and that was during the bye before Cal. He chose to give the younger guys a lot of reps in the hopes of getting them ready for games down the road, vs. having the #1 guys go at each other hard to insure victory vs. Cal. OK, he admitted the error and changed it for the bye before the UCLA game and guess what: 40-2 early in the 3rd before putting in the (now battle-tested) 2nd stringers. And he's doing it again now for the game vs. the Beavers - they will be blown out too.

 

Need some extra Xmas cash (and who doesn't?) - bet for the Trojans to cover the spread - you would have made money 10 of 11 games this year. Even the oddsmakers can't keep up with that offense.

 

You had some valid points in the past that I agreed with, but I will now have to take opportunities to thump you down like most of the others on this board. You are not as smart as you think you are....

[HD Man]

I'll take whatever spread they put on the NC game & whoever is playing OU...USC, LSU...I don't think it'll be 21 points either, though the more points the better taking the dogs...I may be wrong, but I beleive Ryan is way off on what spread will be & how much they'll win by if at all. No matter what team OU plays & though OU is good, the opponent they will face will have the same amount of time to prepare BUT the kicker is the head coaches...both with NFL experience...that will make this game much closer than ole' Ryan & his wildest blowout dreams say...In my opinion...that extra wrinkle or gimmic or scheme that NFL experienced coaches have seen or have access to through the NFL coaching brotherhood is invaluable & will make a difference...it'll play out & Ryan will be either right or very wrong...Ryan does have some valid points or says something that makes sense on a few occasions(LOL)...we'll see...I can assure or most will agree if he's not, the boards will be filled w/ 'Ryan Hater' posts...But not because he's so smooth & states his claims with solid facts...

[Sgt. Ryan]

The spread wont be 21 pts, but what I said is Ill take OU -21 or less vs any team they face. Im that confident in Stoops and Co to humiliate this team to prove a point once and for all there is no team in America that can play with them on a neutral field or in Norman.

[Coffeeman]

Carroll was smart enough to bring Chow in and he has kept him here - his recruiting and motivational prowess extends to his assistants too. He was not really cut out for the NFL due to his "ra-ra" nature, which fits much better with the college kids than spoiled millionaire players. (By the way, your use of the "Univ. of Spoiled Children" sounds like jealousy, and we now have one the highest average incoming freshman SAT scores in the country. Whats the matter, your SATs not good enough to get in, and you had to go to a state school? Poor Sgt.)

 

Texas might be as good as USC this year, but we will probably never know. That point is meaningless.

 

At some point, good coaching and good recruiting come together because you can't recruit if you don't win. Like you said, USC has always gotten the best talent in the SoCal area, but they haven't always won because of the coaching. Carroll (and Chow) not only bring a winning scheme/system but also an attitude and committment that has instilled confidence and, better yet, a 22-3 record over the last 2 years.

 

Lack of Pac10 defense didn't stop the offense from dominating a (supposedly) superior co-Big10 champ Iowa's defense last year. But hey, that was last year, back when OU had a loss were just the Rose Bowl champs instead of the NC's...

 

Assuming it is USC vs. OU in the Sugar, I have no doubt that the Sooners D is better than any we have faced in two years; but I also think that OU hasn't faced an offense as explosive as ours either. USC does not = Texas! On the other side of the ball, if our front four can't pressure White, he can and will pick us apart and it could get ugly like the Bucs vs. the Raiders in the SB last year.

 

I have some doubts in the back of my mind, and I give all sorts of props to OU as the #1 team in the country, but your continued insistence that OU will beat USC (or LSU, whoever) by at least 21 points and not allowing for any chance that OU could actually lose a game (like last year) is getting tiresome.

 

Therefore I hope KSU can either win or at least play you guys really close next week, and put some humility or at least some sense back into crzed fans like you. If that does not happen, then I hope your players are as overconfident as you going into the NC game, and get surprised by a powerful LSU or USC team....

[gman]

It is a shame that my LSU Tigers have a small chance of getting to the Sugar even if they beat Georgia in the SEC championship. Strange how it hurts LSU's strength of schedule to beat a better team in the SEC championship, because Georgia would then have 3 losses instead of just 2. But 2 would have come from LSU. It would have been better for us to have avenged our loss earlier in the year to Florida, and at the same time keeping Georgia on the higher pedestal. Plain and simple, LSU would whoop USC and would be the only team that could give Oklahoma a run for their money. There would be no game that I would enjoy seeing more than LSU versus USC to see who actually belongs in the National Championship.

[GOB1]

HEY SGT. WHAT NUMBER ARE YOU, SO I CAN SEE

WHAT ROLE YOU PLAY ON THIS TEAM. DO U PLAY OFFENSE OR DEFENSE. JUST WONDERING IF YOU HAD A T.V.

I THINK ALOT OF POSTERS WOULD DONATE THERE HARD EARNED MONEY, TO BYE U ONE. THEN MAYBE YOULL SEE

SOMETHING GOES ON BEYOND YOUR BACK YARD.

[SaintsFanUnfortunately]

You go GMan. If I were king, the best option that I see would be to send LSU (or Georgia, whomever wins the SEC championship) to the Rose to play USC and Michigan to the Fiesta to play Oklahoma. And then the winners of those two games would meet one week later in the Sugar Bowl for all the NCAA marbles! This would answer everyone's questions and would put all this jawing to rest! They can keep Ohio State and Miami in the Orange Deja Vu Bowl. As far as Texas, they don't deserve a BCS game after getting pounded by an average SEC team Arkansas. Send Texas to the Gallery Furniture Bowl.

brow