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A modest BCS proposal....


Coffeeman
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All the outrage on here and in the media, on the street, etc. doesn't mean much. Call me cynical, but the system won't be changed unless the big $ carrot (or stick, if you prefer) is used: boycott the games by not watching it on TV and not buying tickets. And because a boycott would hurt us (as diehard football fans) almost as much as it would hurt them, it probably won't happen.

 

In fact, I'd say its got a snowball's chance in hell...

 

Someone on another site suggested getting rid of the polls and the BCS and go to a playoff, but I think we all know that will not happen anytime soon. Especially when you need some kind of ranking system anyway to seed the playoffs, so...

 

Keep the BCS and the polls, but with some serious modification! I don't know what the current 7 computer polls actually do, so if any of the following is already in someone's model, please forgive me. The plan only has 3 main parts:

 

1) Adjust the model to be much more detailed and robust. You need some very smart "business analysts" (that's what the guys are called in my industry who translate what the business leaders want to do into a set of technical requirements that all the programmers in India can understand,)to sit down with the writers and coaches.

 

Then they pick these experts brains to the point that they understand the "gut" choices they make when evaluating the relative strengths of teams. Stuff like major injuries, losses on the road versus at home, losses late in the season vs. early in the season, margin of victory over ranked opponents only (with a 30 pt. cap,), margin of loss (w/same cap), plus the "real" SOS based on the real strengths of the teams' opponents (NOT just the win-loss records of the opponents,) Just like you do with all the variables above on the team in question, apply that rigourous stuff to their opponents. All this can be factored into a very nice computer model. Then test, test, test on historical data, with football experts to help you verify results, and see if it matches perceived "reality" in ranking these teams.

 

2) Because this new model will nearly replicate what the expert coaches and writers already do in the polls, use it ONLY if all of the top 8 do not match, in order, in both polls. If the polls match, the BCS is not necessary that year. (This part is key!)

 

3) After using all that to seed the 8 BCS bowl spots, take the 4 winners into a 3-game playoff system than culminates with the NC game on the Saturday before SuperBowl Sunday. Mucho marketing punch with NFL tie-ins, etc., and everybody wins.

 

So, you like? Should I be the new commish?

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Sounds a lot like what I had cooked up here.

 

For certain, nothing like this can happen before the current BCS contract expires in 2006 (IIRC).

 

Even then, there will be strong opposition from:

* The academic purists that already loathe big-time collegiate athletics, and feel sports corrupt their highbrow purpose. These folks will wring their hands over kids missing classes and exams in order to go play more football games. What school has exams in early January? Besides, with an 4-team post-bowl playoff you have 2 schools playing one additional game, and 2 schools playing two additional games. Hardly an epidemic problem, and certainly nothing in comparison to the magnitude and duration of the NCAA hoops tourney.

 

* The BCS Bowl folks that want all the attention and $$$ for themselves.

 

People that will love the idea will be:

* players

* coaches

* students

* alums

* serious fans of specific teams

* casual fans of football in general

* the print/radio media

* the television networks

* advertisers/sponsors

Basically everyone that loves the wildly popular and successful March Madness would love a football playoff.

 

Maybe if Congress intervenes and breaks up the BCS as it's currently configured, then a playoff might emerge.

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I think another entity that might be against this would be the NFL.

 

The NFL gets all the attention during playoffs. Would they like competition from a major event like this would become?

 

How about celebrity / media / fans that travel to big events like this? Could they go to the NCAA Championship Bowl AND the NFL Super Bowl?

 

The 4 BCS Bowls would be hurt slightly. If I think Oklahoma will make it to the finals but I only have resources to travel to 1 game, I may skip the Sugar Bowl to go to the semifinal or final game.

 

I'm not saying it's a bad idea, I'm just saying there are a few issues that would have to be overcome.

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So if this was the year for such a system, and if beating KSU this last Sat. in the "semis" was your bet for OU, and you had booked for the playoffs, you'd be hosed! But I see your point about lack of resources for travel, to say nothing of getting a ticket.

 

Unless I'm a high roller donor and/or a long-time season ticket holder, I cannot even get a ticket to the god****ed Rose Bowl in my backyard!

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Personally I don't think a college playoff would hurt the NFL or detract in any way from its playoffs and Super Bowl, but nevertheless you may be correct that Tagliabue and the owners would view any competition as bad. What clout they could wield to prevent it is hard to say though. The Super Bowl is, and will continue to be, the biggest sporting event of the year, regardless. I mean, it's not as though the Super Bowl won't sell out their tickets, or people will not tune in on TV since the previous weekend they got to see a college NC game.

 

In a similar way, I pretty much discount the possibility that the BCS bowls would struggle to sell all their tickets. Fan interest would be SO strong, IMO, that tickets would get snapped up just like they do for the first two weekends of March Madness. It's certainly conceivable, though, I suppose. Meanwhile, I'd predict that TV ratings would be up, meaning more sponsorship $$$. As it is, this year most folks will tune in to watch the Sugar, somewhat fewer to the Rose, and even less for the Fiesta and Orange. If all those games were critical in the NC picture, then all but the Sugar would gain audience.

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