wiegie Posted February 4, 2005 Share Posted February 4, 2005 http://www.nber.org/papers/W9422 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackshi17 Posted February 4, 2005 Share Posted February 4, 2005 (edited) The first paragraph was sufficient to convince me who the moran is. Edited February 4, 2005 by jackshi17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McNasty Posted February 4, 2005 Share Posted February 4, 2005 Man, reading that was the metaphysical equivalent of eating a peanut butter sandwich with no milk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Piranha Posted February 4, 2005 Share Posted February 4, 2005 Man, reading that was the metaphysical equivalent of eating a peanut butter sandwich with no milk. 684405[/snapback] ...with chucky peanut butter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtomicCEO Posted February 4, 2005 Share Posted February 4, 2005 In that abstract it says that "Bookies are better at picking the outcomes of games". I always thought that bookies didn't give a rat's ass who won the game, their main goal is to get equal action on both sides of the bet, so they make money off the vig and minimize risk... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted February 4, 2005 Share Posted February 4, 2005 Bookies can adjust the lines to produce even numbers on either side, but they need to open with as realistic line as possible, otherwise everyone immediately jumps on the more obvious winning side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigdadreed Posted February 5, 2005 Share Posted February 5, 2005 The 10% juice helps the profit margin out as much as anything. Plus all of the ass clowns who are betting 5 team parlays & the like, essentially giving their money away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted February 5, 2005 Author Share Posted February 5, 2005 In that abstract it says that "Bookies are better at picking the outcomes of games". I always thought that bookies didn't give a rat's ass who won the game, their main goal is to get equal action on both sides of the bet, so they make money off the vig and minimize risk... 685447[/snapback] That is what I thought too--as it turns out, we were both wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinatieri Is God Posted February 5, 2005 Share Posted February 5, 2005 I'll give it my best shot to explain in laymans terms. Gamblers are a very superstitious lot. Whether it means betting the same amount, calling at the same time of the day, etc.... When the gambler is winning, he does things the same. Unfortunately, because of these superstitions, a smart bookmaker has the advantage of knowing exactly what you are going to do before you do it. Adjusting the line accordingly, gives him a distinct advantage. Example: Bob calls two Sundays in a row and bets the NYJ. He wins both, so when Bob calls on the third Sunday and asks for the NYJ line, bookmaker gives him a higher line than he would normally give anyone else, knowing that Bob will still bet the Jets. That extra point (or more in some cases) increase the bookies odds of winning the bet. Examples of other factors that can come into play: regional bias (the Pats around here), educational ties (Bob went to college at BC and never bets against them), perceived value (Duke is good every year so even though Bob doesn't know a single player on the team, he puts down a mortgage payment on them to win by 8), even fantasy players (Bob has Peyton Manning on his team so he bets the Colts and the over every weekend), Over the long haul, gamblers establish patterns of betting that make it somewhat easy to determine which side a person will bet. You'd be amazed at how many times 1 point can make a huge difference between winning or tying, and tying or losing. Case in point....each of the 4 guys I call locally has the Pats anywhere from 8 to 8.5 because they are the "local" team. Yet, the majority of the money will be on the Pats because they are the team we root for. Smart bookies will take all the Pats action and lay it off to an online service, or a friend in Vegas, etc..for -7 and take their chances on statistics prevailing. Wiegie can lecture on the merits of statistics. Of course, this is all just my take on the whole thing. I do have sort of an insiders view on it all, but that in no way makes me any kind of eggspurt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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