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Why isnt anyone talking about this


Sgt. Ryan
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Most of the Philly fans here , all ready gave props to the Pats for being the better team yesterday. What are you talking about?

 

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LMAO -

 

http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?showtopic=86013

 

 

I guess you needed to finally give props after you wrote this, what a tool.

 

 

 

2/7/05 09:32pm Post #1

 

 

Huddler MVP

 

 

Group: Members

Posts: 5,295

Joined: Oct 7, 2001

From: Where blood runs Eagle green

Member No.: 748

 

 

 

The better team won yeterday, Congrats

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LMAO -

 

http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?showtopic=86013

I guess you needed to finally give props after you wrote this, what a tool.

2/7/05 09:32pm Post #1 

Huddler MVP

Group: Members

Posts: 5,295

Joined: Oct 7, 2001

From: Where blood runs Eagle green

Member No.: 748

The better team won yeterday, Congrats

 

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I did it this morning also, and you can kiss my ass.

 

 

From this am

Edited by NSab
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Man, I hung around for 15 minutes waiting for Corky to finish his post, and then he up and skeedaddles on the thread with nothing.

 

This guy obviously has no heart-- he's a quitter.

 

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Me too, what a chump!

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Man, I hung around for 15 minutes waiting for Corky to finish his post, and then he up and skeedaddles on the thread with nothing.

 

This guy obviously has no heart-- he's a quitter.

 

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LMAO, you bird fans are hilarious. Actually chumps I was in the middle of typing my last post when i took a call I had been waiting on since this AM. I went to a work related site, during that call. Now Im being called heartless because you chumps are hanging on my nuts for the next print to hit the huddle. LMAO>

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This part of my post is the reason this does not apply anymore

 

 

This does not surprise me at all that Philly fans defend their coach in this thread saying it was the right call, but rip him in another thread saying if Reid had any sense of urgency they may have had more time on the clock in the first place. Reid is an NFL head coach, he also has several coaches on his staff to help with these very decisions. Your team just scored a TD, you have the XP try, then the commercial break to decide what you want to do. This was hardly an in the moment decision like a 4th and 1 call or a fake punt. This was after a TD for christ sakes. Another reason why Philly fans are the worst. They are so fickle who to blame, but feel the need to point the finger somewhere rather than just admit their team was beat by a better team. Then they make excuses for their team/coaches and players when anyone else brings up the obvious.

 

 

 

 

BTW, the above truth hurts doesnt it NSab and McNasty

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:D

Like you should be saying anything about a QB being a choke artist.

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Just further proves my point. Dallas right now is clearly rebuilding as Philly was in the early 90s. Dallas went to 4 NFC Champ games from 92-95 and won 3 SBs in that span. Philly just went to its 4th NFC Championship game in a row matching Dallas, but only went to 1 SB and lost it.

 

 

BTW, I see the comparions of McNabb to Vinney. :D

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i'll answer my own questions...

 

what are the odds of recovering an onside kick and moving 25 yards in a minute and a half with two timeouts? according to nfl.com, the chance of recovering an anticipated onside kick is 24%, or about 1 in 4.  after that you're in good shape, you just have to move 25 yards and you have 2 timeouts and lots of time, so the odds of doing that are maybe 75%.  multiply those together, and all told you have a 15-20% chance of the onside kick scenario working out.

 

what are the odds of holding a team to a three and out, then moving 40 yards in 40 seconds? you know they're almost certainly going to run three times, so let's put the chances of stopping them 3 and out pretty high, 75%.  now, to move 40 yards in 40 seconds with no timeouts...that is quite a chore.  figure you need at least 2 20+ yard completions and two clock stoppages, which really means you need sideline catches, against a defense specifically trying to prevent those things from happening.  i would argue you're looking at a 1-in-10 chance of making that happen, but let's just say optimistically there's a 1-in-5 chance.  that means there's a 15% chance of that scenario working out for you.

 

what are the odds of holding a team to a three and out, then moving 60 yards in 40 seconds? the 3-and-out odds would be the same as above, so 75%.  the odds of moving the ball 60 yards in 40 seconds are obviously much shorter than moving it 40 yards in the same amount of time.  i would say 1-in-20, or 5%.  which means you have about a 3% chance of this scenario working out for you.

 

in my world, a 20+% combined chance of success is better than a 15% (if we're generous) chance of success.  the onside kick was their single best statistical shot at tying or winning the game, and with it they still retained the outside chance at getting the ball back and going 60 yards.

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Umm, this post is crap.

 

What process did you use for figuring the probabilities of going 60 yds in 40 seconds or 40 yds in 40 seconds?

 

You may be right about the onside kick thing I don't know but I do know this.

 

The Eagles had the same probability of holding the Pats to a 3 & out regardless of whether they tried the onside kick or if they kicked it deep. In fact kicking it deep may have even made it easier as NE would have been extra careful not to make a mistake deep in their own end of the field. Either way the Pats were not going to throw the ball so the 3 & out was almost a given.

 

I also know this, it is easier to go 40 yds in 40 seconds than it is to go 60 yds in 40 seconds. I defy anyone to dispute that.

 

I also know this, a punt kicked from your opponents 20 - 25 yd line is easier to get a good return on than a punt kicked from your own 36.

 

By your own numbers the Eagles had a 75% chance of NOT getting the onside kick.

 

But by kicking it deep they had a 75% chance of not only getting the ball back but of getting it back in better field position and with just as much time on the clock as they would have after holing the Pats to a 3 & out after the onside kick but with probably 40 yds better field position.

 

And, as someone said earleir, they would have the 5 seconds that the ball spent rolling to a stop at the 4 yd line after the NE punt, in which to mount a return. Which if successful at all would have made the field even shorter.

 

But Andy Reid elected to put the entire outcome of the game on a play that only had a 24% chance of success. Rather than rely on his team to stop the Pats on defense.

 

As I said he panicked.

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I hate to get involved is a pissing contest, but need to test my new sig line. :D

 

IF the situation had been reversed, Belichick would have kicked the ball deep. No question. Three and out would then be almost guaranteed. NE would get the ball back with about 40 seconds remaining and no time-outs, needing a field goal to tie. Brady and the NE offense are the best in the business in the two-minute drill, and could move the 30-40 yards needed with ease.

 

McNabb is no Brady.

 

Looking at it from Reid’s perspective, he had little choice. The chances of McNabb and his offense being able to move the ball into field goal position in 40 seconds with no time-outs against the best defense in football were somewhere between nil and none. Do they even have a two-minute drill?

 

His ONLY real chance to win the game was to try the onside kick. If recovered, the offense would have almost two minutes and two time-outs. It was their ONLY chance to win the game.

 

In other words, his choices were:

 

1-play field position and lose the game

 

2-try an onside kick and either fail and lose the game, or recover the kick and have an outside shot to win the game

:D

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This part of my post is the reason this does not apply anymore

This does not surprise me at all that Philly fans defend their coach in this thread saying it was the right call, but rip him in another thread saying if Reid had any sense of urgency they may have had more time on the clock in the first place.  Reid is an NFL head coach, he also has several coaches on his staff to help with these very decisions.  Your team just scored a TD, you have the XP try, then the commercial break to decide what you want to do.  This was hardly an in the moment decision like a 4th and 1 call or a fake punt.  This was after a TD for christ sakes.  Another reason why Philly fans are the worst.  They are so fickle who to blame, but feel the need to point the finger somewhere rather than just admit their team was beat by a better team.  Then they make excuses for their team/coaches and players when anyone else brings up the obvious.

BTW, the above truth hurts doesnt it NSab and McNasty

 

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I have not defended Reid at all, in this game, the biggest game of his career. I do not think he coached his best game. You don't know anyhting about Philly fans. I don't even know what you are spewing. He was out coached, and our team was out played. And you ARE a TOOl :D

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Personally, I liked the call. Brady rarely makes mistakes and Philadelphia's Defense looked like they were gasping for air. I wish Philadelphia recovered the kick, but they didn't. I was surprised when they prevented New England from a 1st down (since they looked tired).

I just couldn't believe how much time Philadelphia was taking in the huddles at the end. We all were screaming at the TV to get set up.

Also, I never saw the replay, but I thought I saw the deep receiving guy on Philadelphia fall backwards (flat on his back) once New England punted the ball. Did anyone see that. I'd like to see it again, to see if he would have been the player to receive the ball. New England downing the ball inside the 10 yardline made it nearly impossible for Philadelphia to get in Field Goal position.

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After following this thread, I would like to sum it all up using poker cliches....

 

Andy Reid was the short stack at the table and felt that he needed to pull out a miracle card on the river to stay alive. It was his only chance and he went all in knowing full well that if he doesn't pull the ace he's out of the tournament. Sure enough a 3 came out on the river and gave Belicheck his trips. Game Over.

 

Congrats Andy on coming in second.

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Also, I never saw the replay, but I thought I saw the deep receiving guy on Philadelphia fall backwards (flat on his back) once New England punted the ball.  Did anyone see that.    I'd like to see it again, to see if he would have been the player to receive the ball.    New England downing the ball inside the 10 yardline made it nearly impossible for Philadelphia to get in Field Goal position.

 

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What was interesting was that before NE took their timeout as they were getting ready for the punt, two Eagles were set up deep. Reid called the guys in during the timeout, when they went back out, the two Eagles were not that deep. I thought that was odd. At least a fair catch would have saved some time so I would have thought they (PHI) would have stayed with two guys deep.

 

Anyhow...the guy who fell down was not on the same side of the field that the ball was punted to. It looked like Westbrook was on that side.

 

For whatever all this is worth.

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Nah, Im just a Cowboy fan that loves to rub misery in the face of Bird fans.

 

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No misery here, just looking forward to the draft and next season :D

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