Mock #2 from yours truly

[Swiss Cheezhead]

Changes/additional commentary in bold.

 

 

1. San Francisco: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Cal

 

This is Nolan's decision and he doesn't care about what the media/public thinks. He also believes he can win soon in that weak division. Even if Rattay were good enough, he can't stay healthy. The 49ers take the QB who's closest to being ready to contribute. Of course, Alex Smith is still under consideration here, but I think it will end up being Rodgers -- and soon.

 

 

2. Tampa Bay (via Miami): Mike Williams, WR, USC

 

Gruden has become increasingly obsessed with Williams. I don't know what Gruden will give Saban, but he'll do what it takes. Sure, he could have Cadillac at #5, but the thought of Clayton and Williams playing together convinces Gruden to leapfrog Cleveland and Chicago and take the guy he wants. John Clayton just reported that the Bucs are working out the 2 top QBs, apparently in preparation to trade up. In my opinion, Gruden's thinking he can get off cheap by trading with Cleveland, while fooling Minnesota into thinking he won't take a WR. Unfortunately, the Vikes won't be fooled, and they'll easily beat Tampa's offer for the #3 pick. The result? Gruden will swallow his pride, overpay for Miami's #2, and grab his guy.

 

 

 

3. Minnesota (via Cleveland): Braylon Edwards, WR, Michigan

 

The Vikings don't have a whole lot of needs to fill, so they target one of the top 2 WRs. Smartly, they realize that Tampa Bay might trade up to #2 and take Williams, but they don't care -- they'll take either Williams or Edwards. They're only concerned with getting ahead of Chicago, the other team coveting a WR. The Vikings don't need to trade up any higher than #3 to get a top WR, so they convince Cleveland that the #7 and #18 picks are better than Tampa's 1st- and 2nd-rounders.

 

 

 

4. Chicago: Derrick Johnson, LB, Texas

 

With Williams and Edwards both gone, this pick should take all of 30 seconds for Jerry Angelo and Lovie Smith. Hunter Hillenmeyer, meet bench. Bench, meet Hunter. Lovie, say hello to one of the best linebacker units in the NFL. Does anyone REALLY think the Bears will take a RB here? If a 1st-year offensive coordinator (Ron Turner) can make Jerry Angelo forget about all the money he gave Thomas Jones a year ago AND get him to pass on a talent like Johnson, the Bears are in trouble. I don't think it will happen. Angelo will take Johnson and tell Turner to find a RB in round 3 or later.

 

 

5. Miami (via Tampa Bay): Ronnie Brown, RB, Auburn

 

Saban shows impressive savvy in his first NFL draft. He desperately wants more picks, which he gets from Tampa Bay (maybe a 2005 3rd and 2006 2nd?). He's also said before that #2 is too high to take a RB. With the trade down to number 5, he gets incredible value, realizing he will have his choice of several players who can help his team. In the end, he gets the player everyone expected to go at #2. No surprise here. Saban really needs a RB; he just doesn't want to pay #2 money for one.

 

 

6. Washington (via Tennessee): Antrel Rolle, CB, Miami

 

This trade is based on two factors: One -- it's looking like the Titans will be able to re-sign Andre Dyson, lessening the need for a CB. Two -- Arizona is almost certain to land Travis Henry, which will make CB their primary 1st-round target. Floyd Reese calls Joe Gibbs and tells him he's about to take Rolle if he stays put, which would leave Washington looking at the 3rd-best CB on the board. Gibbs accepts, since Reese's asking price isn't too high.

 

 

7. Cleveland (via Minnesota): Alex Smith, QB, Utah

 

I still think Crennel would prefer Merriman here, but Savage has final say. He'll take the franchise QB, under the premise that the Browns won't be picking this high again. Plus, they still have another 1st-rounder (foreshadowing alert).

 

 

8. Arizona: Adam Jones, CB, West Virginia

 

Goodbye, Duane. Hello, Pac-Man. Assuming Travis Henry will be a Cardinal soon, CB is the obvious pick here. Some people are saying that Carlos Rogers is as good a prospect as Rolle and/or Jones, but I don't see it. Jones's return ability takes care of another need for Arizona.

 

 

9. Tennessee (via Washington): Alex Barron, OT, Florida St

 

Floyd Reese didn't ask much from Washington because he knew he'd still be able to fill a big position of need, OT, and pay less for it. Barron replaces the departed Fred Miller, and Steve McNair considers playing without his flak jacket.

 

 

10. Detroit: Shawne Merriman, LB/DE, Maryland

 

Millen and Mooch are only slightly disappointed after the Washington/Tennessee trade, knowing Barron will go right before their pick. However, they're perfectly happy to take Merriman, who will be able to stay at his current weight (274) and be a force at 4-3 DE. Cory Redding might still play in short-yardage situations, but Merriman will be very productive right away.

 

 

11. Baltimore (via Dallas): Troy Williamson, WR, South

 

Parcells doesn't like the players available here, so he's happy to take a call from the ever-aggressive Ozzie Newsome. Newsome wants Williamson and realizes that if Dallas doesn't take him, San Diego, Houston, or Carolina certainly would. The Ravens surrender their 1st- and 2nd-round picks and, just like that, Billick's offense is suddenly looking VERY nice.

 

 

12. San Diego: Marcus Spears, DE, LSU

 

The Bolts don't have too many needs and they'll have the opportunity to draft the best, prototypical 3-4 DE in this year's class. Spears is a competitor who shows up in key situations. He'll play the run very well and give Wade Phillips the threat of a pass rush on the D-line.

 

 

 

13. Houston: Mark Clayton, WR, Oklahoma

 

The Texans do have needs on the O-line and D-line, but the value isn't there at #13. Clayton is as fast as Corey Bradford, his hands are as good as Jabar Gaffney's, and he's got much more run-after-catch ability than either of them. Therefore, he's the perfect compliment to Andre Johnson.

 

 

14. Carolina: Carnell Williams, RB, Auburn

 

Travis Johnson will be a major consideration here, but with Cadillac still available, the Panthers will think for a while. Knowing Stephen Davis has SERIOUS health issues and that Deshaun Foster will probably be injury-prone his entire career, Carolina will pick the best player left and give themselves some excellent insurance at RB.

 

 

15. Kansas City: Travis Johnson, DT, Florida State

 

Peterson will see this as an opportunity to atone for his Ryan Sims sin of 2002. In Johnson, the Chiefs will get a better DT prospect than Sims and they'll get him 9 picks further down. Johnson will be a great boost to the D-line.

 

 

16. New Orleans: Carlos Rogers, CB, Auburn

 

This is the point of the 1st round when Andy Reid will start sweating as he worries about getting Demarcus Ware. If Rogers were gone, the Saints would probably trade down with Philly, but Haslett knows Fakhir Brown is not an NFL starter. Rogers would be a huge upgrade and, with McKenzie on the other side, the Saints secondary is fairly impressive.

 

 

17. Cincinnati: Thomas Davis, S/LB, Georgia

 

Marvin Lewis will field the phone call from Andy Reid, but he’ll politely pass on his offer to trade down. Lewis would love to give FS Madieu Williams a playmaking compliment at SS and he also smiles at the option of moving Davis to LB (depending on the statuses of Kevin Hardy and Nate Webster).

 

 

18. Cleveland (via Minnesota): Justin Miller, CB, Clemson

 

Now, Andy Reid is really worried. He calls Phil Savage, only to find out that the Browns have their eye on a CB. Cleveland still lacks speed in the secondary and Miller is the type of smart, fearless defender that Crennel likes.

 

 

19. St. Louis: Khalif Barnes, OT, Washington

 

Mark my words: if Barnes or Jammal Brown last this long, Martz won't hesitate, especially now that Little got acquitted (eliminating the DE need). Mad Mike frequently criticized his own O-line last year and you can bet Kyle Turley won't be a Ram much longer. Barnes and Orlando Pace will suddenly be one of the top tackle tandems in the league, which will ease Martz's fears of another constantly concussed QB. Martz could take Brown here, but I expect him to be unconventional and grab Barnes instead. He won’t even consider trading with Philly, since there won’t be a good OT available at #31.

 

 

20. Dallas: Jammal Brown, OT, Oklahoma

 

The Tuna smiles as he fills the gaping hole at RT. Brown's addition will give Bledsoe another second or two in the pocket before he fumbles. Dallas will consider taking Ware here, but they know the Jags will take Brown if he’s available. When Andy Reid calls, Parcells and Jerry Jones share a laugh at their division rival’s expense and hang up the phone.

 

 

21. Jacksonville: Marlin Jackson, CB, Michigan

 

Jacksonville will be very tempted to trade down with the Eagles, but Jackson is the last 1st-round CB available and he will be undoubtedly be gone by #31. Right before their time expires, Jackson’s size, speed, and versatility convince Del Rio to draft him as a compliment to Rashean Mathis.

 

 

22. Dallas (via Baltimore): Demarcus Ware, DE/LB, Troy

 

This would really be a coup for the Cowboys for a few reasons: (1) Ware is almost as good a prospect as Shawne Merriman, whom they were coveting at #11, (2) they were able to grab a starting OT, and (3) they got Baltimore’s 2nd-round pick. Andy Reid slams three chili-dogs in frustration.

 

 

23. Seattle: Cedric Benson, HB, Texas

 

And Benson's slide finally comes to an end. The 'Hawks desperately need a LB, but none deserve this pick. Instead, they send a message to Shaun Alexander that he better run his ass off this year, because they'll be waving goodbye to him in 2006. Or, Benson's presence will give them more flexibility to work out a trade. I still think Benson will fall this far and I still think Seattle will snatch him up. Seahawks fans will tell you all about how Tim Ruskell has been preaching about “character guys” since his arrival. Ruskell would like nothing better than to make Shaun Alexander expendable.

 

 

24. Green Bay: Brodney Pool, S, Oklahoma

 

Darren who? Safety has become the bar-none, no-question biggest need for Green Bay. This selection is a slight reach (a la Nick Barnett in 2003), but Pool will step right into the starting lineup and have a huge impact. If Thomas Davis is gone and Pool is still around, this pick is a no-brainer for the Pack.

 

 

25. Denver: Shaun Cody, DT/DE, Southern Cal

 

Shanahan really won’t like this pick, since he was hoping for a CB to fall. Erasmus James would be tempting, but even with the additions of Gerard Warren and Michael Myers, the Broncos’ DTs are average at best. Denver gets an immediate impact-player and Cody is able to stay at his natural position.

 

 

26. New York: Heath Miller, TE, Virginia

 

This pick won’t take long for the Jets to make. They were hoping Miller would last this long, so they ignore his health concerns and give Pennington the short-yardage option he’s been craving.

 

 

27. Atlanta: Erasmus James, DE, Wisconsin

 

Durability and consistency concerns allow James to slide all the way to Atlanta. They'll consider his teammate, Anntaj Hawthorne, but James has way more upside and will be a huge upgrade over Brady Smith. With Rod Coleman, Patrick Kerney, and James, the Falcons' pass rush will be formidable.

 

 

28. San Diego: Roddy White, WR, Alabama-Birmingham

 

A.J. Smith probably knew this would be his pick all along. The Chargers have a decent WR unit, but none of them have great size or speed. White has a nice combination of both and, with McCardell and Caldwell starting, he'll have time to adjust from a small school to the NFL.

 

 

29. Indianapolis: Channing Crowder, LB, Florida

 

Crowder is the perfect fit for Dungy's cover-2 scheme, in ways that Rob Morris wasn't. Crowder is athletic enough to play in space and has good instincts. As for the "character concerns", Dungy is a good mentor-type coach who will keep the kid out of trouble.

 

 

30. Pittsburgh: Darryl Blackstock, LB, Virginia

 

Well, according to a few Steelers fans here at the Huddle, Pittsburgh won’t be taking a TE with this pick. I’m also skeptical that they’ll target a WR, especially if Roddy White is off the board. With Kendrell Bell now gone via free agency, I believe Cowher will stick to the position that put his team on the map: linebacker. Larry Foote and Clark Haggans are both good players, but I think Blackstock’s blitzing ability makes him an upgrade over both. If nothing else, the Steelers could use some depth at the position.

 

 

31. Philadelphia: Matt Jones, WR, Arkansas

 

After being unable to secure the one player he really wanted (D. Ware) Andy Reid figures he can afford to take a big risk. The Eagles have enough picks to add depth at several positions, so Matt Jones makes a lot of sense here. He won’t be asked to do much right away, but he could be a super-stud in a year or two.

 

 

32. New England: Barrett Ruud, LB, Nebraska

 

Ruud is the perfect pick for Bill Belichick. He's a smart, coachable, blue-collar player who was amazingly productive in college. If Bruschi doesn't return, Ruud can step right in and start for the Pats. If Bruschi comes back, Ruud will be even better next year.

[Duchess Jack]

I hope you are right about Gruden...I am not happy with the 1.2 this year.

[Fatman]

I think you're more on track with the Panthers this time. Your trading up takes away some of the possibilities, but the Bears go offense first.

[Donutrun Jellies]

I like an impact linebacker for the Steeeeelers -- with hidden gems at WR/TE later in the draft perhaps?

[jackshi17]

Way to go Swiss!!

[Rovers]

Swiss, I remain awstruck by yer accumen. You have still, have however forgotten that Dallas' #1 pick goes to the Jets for DE Abraham.

[Blitztalk]

16. New Orleans: Carlos Rogers, CB, Auburn

 

This is the point of the 1st round when Andy Reid will start sweating as he worries about getting Demarcus Ware. If Rogers were gone, the Saints would probably trade down with Philly, but Haslett knows Fakhir Brown is not an NFL starter. Rogers would be a huge upgrade and, with McKenzie on the other side, the Saints secondary is fairly impressive

Haslett knows 3/4 of his D is not an NFL starters but keeps putting them in there hoping for a miracle year after year. i would be very hapy with a solid CB at this position but would love to see a trade up for Derrick Johnson. I think Angelo would trade out of that #4 spot. For what the Saints gave up for Jonathan Sullivan a couple years back Haslett better be offering his first born.

[Clubfoothead]

 

Good $hit. I'm hard to impress. Henry's still going at 2.10, right?

 

Edit: Maybe you listened to me too much, although that is probably impossible, but Brown, Ware, Henry and our other second rounder for Howard is stellar, better than I could have done. I'm calling Jerry when I get home.

Edited April 12, 2005 by Clubfoothead

[Jolly Rodgers]

Gruden has become increasingly obsessed with Williams. I don't know what Gruden will give Saban, but he'll do what it takes. Sure, he could have Cadillac at #5, but the thought of Clayton and Williams playing together convinces Gruden to leapfrog Cleveland and Chicago and take the guy he wants. John Clayton just reported that the Bucs are working out the 2 top QBs, apparently in preparation to trade up. In my opinion, Gruden's thinking he can get off cheap by trading with Cleveland, while fooling Minnesota into thinking he won't take a WR. Unfortunately, the Vikes won't be fooled, and they'll easily beat Tampa's offer for the #3 pick. The result? Gruden will swallow his pride, overpay for Miami's #2, and grab his guy.

 

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Riiiiight, not going to happen. Tampa has too many holes to fill.

[Big Red]

Again, no way the Ravens take a WR with their first pick, especiallly by trading up in the 1st.

 

Hymes and Moore ended last year as the #1 and #2. Now they are the #2 and #3 with Mason being the new #1. Moore and Darling (#4) are in their 2nd year (Darling missed most of last year) and Hymes is in his 4th. We've got a decent, young WR corp. Also, Heap just adds to that.

 

Ravens need O-Line and D-Line the most.

[Swiss Cheezhead]

Riiiiight, not going to happen.  Tampa has too many holes to fill.

 

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Really? So who is Tampa going to take at #5? Please don't tell me Gruden is going to pick a RB -- that wouldn't fit the "filling holes" theory.

[Swiss Cheezhead]

Again, no way the Ravens take a WR with their first pick, especiallly by trading up in the 1st.

 

Hymes and Moore ended last year as the #1 and #2.  Now they are the #2 and #3 with Mason being the new #1.  Moore and Darling (#4) are in their 2nd year (Darling missed most of last year) and Hymes is in his 4th.  We've got a decent, young WR corp.  Also, Heap just adds to that.

 

Ravens need O-Line and D-Line the most.

 

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That's a fair point, but no matter how "decent" the WRs look on paper, none of them have game-breaking speed like Williamson. Billick knows what a fast rookie WR can do (I bet he remembers Randy Moss).

 

Still, if they don't covet Williamson like I think they do, then I'm betting they take the best available OT or DT at their original slot, like you said.

 

Have you read any articles or heard anything from the Ravens indicating that they're now happy with their WR corps? Please share.

[Favreforlife]

 

Well Done!

[Jolly Rodgers]

Really? So who is Tampa going to take at #5? Please don't tell me Gruden is going to pick a RB -- that wouldn't fit the "filling holes" theory.

 

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Well we only have one healthy runningback worth mentioning (Pittman) so we do have a hole there to fill. You are dead on about Williams though. Gruden wants him bad but I just dont see him trading up from the #5 spot to get him. Bucs could go either way here, WR or RB. The Bucs only have 2 WR's (Galloway & Clayton) so again a WR would fill the hole. If for some reason Edwards and Williams are both gone with the #5 pick, look for the Bucs to trade down and still pick up Caddy or Derrick Johnson.

[Hitman]

Awesome work Swiss. Very interesting. BTW, you're one sick MoFo. :eek:

Edited April 12, 2005 by Hitman

[crispirons]

great read....very nice cheese. the only problem i have with these, (but again, i love reading them) is that we, as fantasy freaks, will tend to put more skill positions in there than actually will be drafted in the first round. it seems that way every year, and who can blame us. i bet there are alot of linemen drafted in the first round this yr.

 

anyway, props again to swiss....big undertaking and alot of work. thanks.

[Easy n Dirty]

Gotta' agree, very impressive stuff Swiss.

 

The thought of Heath Miller falling to the Jets was being discussed on the Mike and Mike show just this morning, with Greenberg, an avowed jet fan, salivating at the thought. But John Clayton rained on the parade by assuring all of us that the Jets are going defensive back in the first round.

[Swiss Cheezhead]

Again, no way the Ravens take a WR with their first pick, especiallly by trading up in the 1st.

 

Ravens need O-Line and D-Line the most.

 

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I just went back and analyzed the Ravens' depth chart again and now I'm even more convinced that they won't target the D-line OR O-line in the first round.

 

Maybe, like me, you forgot that they acquired OG Keydrick Vincent from the Steelers, who's at least as good as Bennie Anderson. They also have Jonathan's brother, Marques, and Tony Pashos as decent backups at OT.

 

As for the D-line, there won't be anybody available in the 20s who is better than their current D-linemen. They took Dwan Edwards in the 2nd-round last year, so any DT they draft would have to be clearly better than him. That's just not going to happen.

 

I don't doubt that the Ravens will address the O-line and D-line in later rounds, but I still think a fast WR is their most obvious need. The reality is that Billick and Newsome NEED to know if Kyle Boller is the answer at QB. The only way to find out FOR SURE is to give him everything any QB could possibly want around him. Billick wants a WR who will move the opposing safeties back and open up the rest of the offense.

Edited April 12, 2005 by Swiss Cheezhead

[Swiss Cheezhead]

Gotta' agree, very impressive stuff Swiss.

 

The thought of Heath Miller falling to the Jets was being discussed on the Mike and Mike show just this morning, with Greenberg, an avowed jet fan, salivating at the thought.  But John Clayton rained on the parade by assuring all of us that the Jets are going defensive back in the first round.

 

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Well, I wouldn't worry about a 1st-round DB if I were you. If it's between a starting TE and a backup DB, I'd expect them to take a TE. Add the fact that the DB talent will be very diminished by the mid 20s, and it makes even less sense to overpay for a backup.

 

D. Abraham, D. Barrett, and D. Strait form an above-average CB trio AND the Jets defense was perfectly fine last year (4th in NFL in points allowed). I'd expect them to target a faster CB later in the draft who will be ready to start in a year or two.

[Swiss Cheezhead]

This from the Rumors section of ESPN's NFL Insider:

 

Apr. 14 - The Dolphins appear to be getting serious about trading with the Bucs down to the No. 5 pick, according to John Clayton. If the Dolphins stay at No. 2, they might take Auburn halfback Ronnie Brown, but they are excited to know they could have a trading partner with the Bucs.

 

Don't be fooled -- I think Gruden is disguising his intentions to take M. Williams.

[Atlanta Cracker]

This from the Rumors section of ESPN's NFL Insider:

Don't be fooled -- I think Gruden is disguising his intentions to take M. Williams.

 

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If it looks like the Dolphins ans Bucs are talking seriously about the #2 pick why would Tampa need to disguise their intentions of taking Williams?

Edited April 15, 2005 by Atlanta Cracker

[Jolly Rodgers]

If it looks like the Dolphins ans Bucs are talking seriously about the #2 pick why would Tampa need to disguise their intentions of taking Williams?

 

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Good point. Also, why would Gruden trade up for someone he has a good chance at landing with the #5 pick he already owns?