Amazing

[seminoles]

These teams have an average to above average RB: Bills, Patriots, Jets, Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, Redskins, Ravens, Bears, Bengals, Lions, Packers, Steelers, Texans, Falcons, Colts, Panthers, Saints, Jaguars, Titans, Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, Seahawks, and the Chargers. Plus the Raiders and Browns are pretty close to average. So that leaves only 5 teams needing a RB. Before it seemed that good RB's were hard to come by but now it's harder to find a team without a good RB. And with 3 really good RB's in the draft, the number of teams can go as low as two. So are pretty good RB's that hard to come by these days?

Edited April 15, 2005 by seminoles

[broncosn05]

I never go RB

[Caveman_Nick]

Technically speaking, it would be impossible for 80% of the league's starting RBs to be 'above average'. Productive, sure, but not above average

[Los Gigantes]

Technically speaking, it would be impossible for 80% of the league's starting RBs to be 'above average'.  Productive, sure, but not above average

779195[/snapback]

 

 

not true.

 

 

If there were ten running backs, and they had an average talent rating of 10, (100 total talent points) and 8 had 11 points, and 2 had 6 points, then 80% would be above average talent.

[Chargerz]

You have used "average to above average", "pretty close to average", "good", "really good", and "pretty good" to describe what you are talking about. I think you're saying that the overall quality of RB's in the NFL has increased to the point that scoring differences are small and picking a RB is less of a concern (correct me if I'm wrong). This dovetails into past discussions on this board about where RB's should fall in the draft order.

 

While the overall quality of RB's may have increased (debatable), I feel there is STILL enough difference in RB scoring to make drafting RB's relatively early a priority, IMHO.

[Donutrun Jellies]

not true.  If there were ten running backs, and they had an average talent rating of 10, (100 total talent points) and 8 had 11 points, and 2 had 6 points, then 80% would be above average talent.

779269[/snapback]

Ah, the sweeet nuance of mean vs median. Indeed.

 

But lets get back to what he meant. I think the way to look at this is to divide RBs into 3 groups -- not above/below "median", but rather four -- top backs, good backs, desperately-seeking-replacement backs. The shift I see is that fewer teams are stuck with the bottom tier, with the middle tier being more populous at the moment than typical. For example, I see the Steelers' Duce/Bus as tier 2 backs in this scenario because of age/mileage -- and I see the Titan's Chris Brown in the same tier due to inexperience and age. I don't see either team replacing their backs this year -- but neither team is foaming at the mouth about having a true star back. Those continue to be few and far between, except in their agents' minds ...

[Greatness]

its true every team wants to claim that they're comfortable with their back but many still wish for an upgrade. Alot of the confusion is created by a teams desire for a back that fits their system. Priest holmes and brian westbrook may not be as dominant in other systems but can anyone deny that they are not top 10 backs? Thats why personnel people are all over the place are arguing backs are great (meaning they fit a system) i would argue these are the top 10 running backs in the nfl based on a formula including both production and potential. I tried to remove the system from the player which leads us to analyze only the running backs skills. But keep in mind if a system was built around a player such as westbrook adn holmes maybe thats an indicator of who is and who is not a great back:

 

 

LT

Priest

Dillon

Edge

alexander

westbrook

barber

deuce

j lewis

F taylor

[The Irish Doggy]

12 team leagues will be won with QB/WR/TE/K/and D this year. RB will not make the difference IMO. Everyone will have 2.

 

I think its time to consider stud WR theory . I never went with this agenda before. I know its been done going WR/WR/RB/RB but I've never seen a championship out of it.

 

Assume you're picking in the second half of round 1. Imagine something like Moss paired with Holt, Harrison, or Chad Johnson, Walker, etc. with your 1-2. You'll still get 2 RBs in 3 and 4 most likely. You'll be rolling the dice with a rookie or bottom of middle tier RBs, but that's OK, you didn't get Tomlinson in round 1 so you won't have an elite RB anyway.

Edited April 15, 2005 by The Irish Doggy

[Big Country]

12 team leagues will be won with QB/WR/TE/K/and D this year.  RB will not make the difference IMO.  Everyone will have 2.

 

I think its time to consider stud WR theory  .  I never went with this agenda before. I know its been done going WR/WR/RB/RB but I've never seen a championship out of it.

 

Assume you're picking in the second half of round 1.  Imagine something like Moss paired with Holt, Harrison, or Chad Johnson, Walker, etc. with your 1-2.  You'll still get 2 RBs in 3 and 4 most likely.  You'll be rolling the dice with a rookie or bottom of middle tier RBs, but that's OK, you didn't get Tomlinson in round 1 so you won't have an elite RB anyway.

 

779529[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

I think the line between the "elite" fantasy back and the "strong" fantasy back is still pretty wide.

 

There is still a line between the 'elite"WR and the "strong" WR, but I see the pool of strong WRs to be greater than thatof the RB pool, so unless you require 3-4 starting WRs, RB will still have more value once the "elite" playersfrom each group go.

 

Regarding stud WR, I made the Superbowl of one league(did not win), using a strategy like this because the scoring system gave one point per reception (this was two seasons ago), so a line up of Harrison, Bruce and the emerging Chad Johnson gave me a very nice core to build off of.

[SGE_VIKE]

Very good points. I just went through the past 9 years in one league, 8 years in another, and 3 in a final league. In those seasons the #1 pick for the champion was 70% of the time a QB. The second pick was a RB 20% of the time. Of the other percentages only 2 instances were non RB and were a TE and a WR. With that said those two instances were from a Keeper league of 4 players.

 

I have been historically been a RB/QB/RB/WR/WR drafter because of the percentages ... or what I thought were percentages. I have 2 titles in the 3 leagues I have stayed in and represented 6 other times in the past.

 

What does this mean??? Really that QB is weighted heavier and could be done simply from the protection rules on the QB in place today sans McNair. darn that is funny. I did not include scoring simply because each league is a seperate scoring model.

[MikesVikes]

You could find more than five teams in the league that would upgrade their RB situation in a New York minute.

[major-tom]

Much has been written and debated recently about the apparent glut of RB talent for the coming NFL season (this post included http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?showtopic=91215).

With the increased production of certain QB's, WR's, and especially TE's last year and some scoring systems that tend to devalue the RB position it seems that many in FF will be junking the traditional "get your 2 RB's first draft strategy". Not so fast.

 

When it actually comes time for our drafts this summer and the clock is ticking, many owners will revert back to the strategies that have worked for them in the past and not adjust (at least not right away) to the changing landscape in the NFL.

Some owners will try to be progressive and pick other positions first, but enough owners will still pick their RB's first which may cause others in the league to panic and scrap their new strategy. Ok, maybe I'm overthinking this a bit but just my 2 cents. Any thoughts?

Edited April 15, 2005 by major-tom

[SGE_VIKE]

Knee jerk reactions come from skiddish owners. I am one of those for the first draft of the season and sometimes the second. I do 4/5 leagues a year. Reason behind this comes from the prospective of need to succeed in 1 league. I have 3 drafts prior to the league I need to perform well in and sometimes I do a league after. I have 4 leagues I keep with, 9/8/6/4 tenure, and I pick up one at work if they need someone.

 

I get skiddish no matter what I do on that first draft BUT I try to learn how to react to trends inside the draft. I then take that and try to do some strategy modeling. Funny on how that sounds but it works. So I mold my first strategy to not get skiddish to go with the flow forcing myself to keep to a prefabbed approach. Been doing that for 6 years now and I have had success up to last season.

 

This year I am seeing a change to QB/WR/RB/RB but I could be forced to that old scale of RB first ... When is draft season??? Is it August yet?

[timmyk93]

12 team leagues will be won with QB/WR/TE/K/and D this year.  RB will not make the difference IMO.  Everyone will have 2.

 

I think its time to consider stud WR theory  .  I never went with this agenda before. I know its been done going WR/WR/RB/RB but I've never seen a championship out of it.

 

Assume you're picking in the second half of round 1.  Imagine something like Moss paired with Holt, Harrison, or Chad Johnson, Walker, etc. with your 1-2.  You'll still get 2 RBs in 3 and 4 most likely.  You'll be rolling the dice with a rookie or bottom of middle tier RBs, but that's OK, you didn't get Tomlinson in round 1 so you won't have an elite RB anyway.

 

779529[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

I actually won a 12 team league using the picking wr/wr at 11 and 14... i got Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, then scooped up Mushin Muhammad in the 9th!

[Shot_Kings]

I actually won a 12 team league using the picking wr/wr at 11 and 14... i got Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, then scooped up Mushin Muhammad in the 9th!

 

780114[/snapback]

 

 

 

But aren't you drawing the wrong conclusion from this? You didn't do well because you drafted WR/WR, you did well because you got top 3 WR production out of a 9th round pick with Muhammad. Moss & Harrison were both slight disappointments for the draft picks you used to get them - Moss because of his injury & Harrison because Manning spread the ball around so much. Neither player was a bust, but you could have gotten the same production by drafting your #1 & #2 WRs a little later. It was Muhammad's outlandishly good production that saved your WR/WR draft strategy.

 

Nevertheless, I do think that shifts in NFL rules making the game more pass-happy, coupled with what appears to be more NFL teams having at least decent RB situations, renders the RB/RB strategy a little more suspect. And if everyone in your league believes in the power of RBs, looking in other directions might be the only way to gain a competitive advantage. But in most fantasy scoring systems & starting requirements, ignoring RBs early is still a dangerous game. Drafting a Muhammad or a Tiki Barber late can make up for it, but who will be those players this year? Only time will tell...

[keggerz]

2 yrs ago i won a league drafting Randy and Marvin back to back followed up with RB RB RB it is important to target NON RBBC RBs thats the secret and if your league allows for reception points then players like TIKI in round 3 2yrs ago is still a coup

[Rovers]

its true every team wants to claim that they're comfortable with their back but many still wish for an upgrade. Alot of the confusion is created by a teams desire for a back that fits their system. Priest holmes and brian westbrook may not be as dominant in other systems  but can anyone deny that they are not top 10 backs? Thats why personnel people are all over the place are arguing backs are great (meaning they fit a system) i would argue these are the top 10 running backs in the nfl based on a formula including both production and potential. I tried to remove the system from the player which leads us to analyze only the running backs skills.  But keep in mind if a system was built around a player such as westbrook adn holmes maybe thats an indicator of who is and who is not a great back:

LT

Priest

Dillon

Edge

alexander

westbrook

barber

deuce

j lewis

F taylor

 

779502[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

No Curtis Martin on this list? Holmes at 2, given his recent durabilty problems? That is an awful list. Fragile Freddy better than Martin or Green?? Deuce coming off his worst year? I hope everyone in my leagues use this list. Barber is 30 years old now, and comes off his best season ever, and Holmes is old too. Can't use the age arguement for keeping Martin off this list. Bad list.