policy's mock

[policyvote]

1. San Francisco - Aaron Rodgers, QB

 

Obvious pick here, but then the 1.1 always is. I don't buy the Alex Smith 'upside' argument; the Niners' ownership is too much about sure things, and Rodgers is the closest there is to a sure thing at QB in this draft. And make no mistake, it WILL be a QB; the Niners need a franchise player and WRs just don't touch the ball often enough. Besides, Braylon Edwards is not going to come in and have an immeidate impact, not with Rattay and Dorsey throwing the ball.

 

2. Miami - Cadillac Williams, RB

 

All the noise about Ricky returning was just that--noise. OC Scott Linehan has his "for now" QB in Frerotte, and Feeley is still young. There's no reason to reach for a QB here, and there's no way Smith is worth 1.2 money. Saban does the smart thing and drafts a workhorse back with hands.

 

3. Minnesota (from Cleveland) - Braylon Edwards, WR

 

Practically every move Tice has made has been to solidfy the running game and defense, but if they don't end up with a bona fide stud WR with thier first rounder, Minny fans will have his head. Williams will not fall to 1.7, and Cleveland can't justify going defense at 1.3. They do the natural thing and work out a deal. Minny ends up with their Moss replacement (in more ways than they'll initially understand), and Cleveland gets to draft defense rather than reach for a mid-round QB prospect at 1.3.

 

4. Chicago - Ronnie Brown, RB

 

Lovie Smith may be a defensive coach, and the Bears might need help practically everywhere on the field, but he sees the writing on the wall. NFL coaches don't get four or five years to turn it around anymore, and if Grossman struggles the offense needs someone they can hang their hat on. They take the best immediate-impact offensive player on the board in Brown.

 

5. Tampa Bay - Mike Williams, WR

 

I don't buy Gruden as having such insatiable man-love for Williams that he moves up to get him; OTOH if he's available at 1.5, I don't see him passing. Everyone and his brother talks about Chris Simms flopping, but he's actually developed much faster than I thought he might. I heard that Gruden had actually bragged about stealing Simms at the Hawaiian NFL meetings this offseason . . . I don't see him taking Smith here.

 

6. Tennessee - Antrell Rolle, CB

 

This guy is a stud and the Titans need him.

 

7. Cleveland (from Minnesota)- Derrick Johnson, LB

 

This is the player the Browns need, and this is the slot he's worth taking at. They might even overpay him at 1.3, but when Minny gets on the horn, first-time GM Phil Savage is happy to take the call and move down.

 

8. Arizona - Alex Smith, QB

 

Denny Green has the WRs to make his offense run, and he knows he can grab a very good RB in the second round (or through a trade). He also knows that the QB cupboard is bare, and Warner is a one-year stopgap solution. Smith is the very smart pick at 1.8.

 

9. Washington - Pac-man Jones, CB

 

Desperate need, great player. I'm fairly certian that Gibbs doesn't have a bias against small, explosive CBs.

 

10. Philadelphia (from Detroit) - Cedric Benson, RB

 

Here's the big curveball. I've been saying this whole time that the Lions would take Alex Barron, if available. I personally think that's the right move here, but from what I'm gathering the Lions are hoping one of the two stud corners falls to them. When that doesn't happen, and DJ is off the board, Barron becomes the only reasonable pick. However, apparently the Lions are geniunely of the opinion that one of their two young guys, Kelly Butler and Victor Rogers, will be able to fill the hole at RT nicely. The Eagles, meanwhile, are stupid. Er, no, actually, they're really smart. Even though Westbrook was nothing but a playmaker for them all last season, Andy Reid has never been able to leave well enough alone at RB. From what I'm hearing the Eagles want a stud workhorse who can play the ball-control game. Benson and Westbrook would be a devastating combination. Millen has always loved to move around, and the Eagles have three picks in the first two rounds to trade with. If he could swing 1.10 for 1.31, 2.3, and/or 2.31 I think he'd do it. What the Lions lack now, more than anything, is DEPTH.

 

11. Dallas - Shawn Merriman, DE/OLB

 

This is a perfect fit - speed, size, and rush ability from the outside, whether he plays in a 3-4 or 4-3 alignment.

 

12. San Diego - Troy Williamson, WR

 

The Bolts FINALLY get their deep threat. They've only been waiting since . . . uh . . . when was the last time the Bolts had a WR who could run? This guy's stock has been rising, and the Bolts are glad to get him here.

 

13. Houston - Alex Barron, OT

 

Another obvious pick, but the Texans' need is great and Barron's talent is even greater. When DD had holes to run through last year, he was impressive, and if they ever want Carr to step up, they'll have to keep him from running for his life.

 

14. Carolina - Heath Miller, TE

 

This is the hardest pick in the first round to project. There are any number of ways the Pathers could go, but with no stud interior lineman I think they take the best offensive player available, and that's Miller.

 

15. Kansas City - Erasmus James, DE

 

This is a coin flip between James and Carlos Rogers, but I think they'll find a way to bring in Surtain or Law, making James the pick here. This starts the run on the "edge-rushers-with-question-marks".

 

16. New Orleans - Travis Johnson, DT

 

Worthlessness, thy name is Jonathon Sullivan. They'd probably take Rogers here too, but this defense needs an inside presence badly.

 

17. Cincinnati - David Pollack, DE

 

They need an edge rusher with a motor, and Pollack is certianly that. A nice guy, or a can't-miss prospect, he certainly isn't, but the Bengals take the best edge rusher they can get here.

 

18. Green Bay (from Minnesota through Cleveland) - Carlos Rogers, CB

 

Cleveland is sitting on Charlie Frye, the QB from Akron. The Pack steadfastly refuses to anoint an heir to Favre, and they need to stop the bleeding in the secondary. Rogers is a Top 15 talent, and Sherman has never shown any qualms about moving up. Cleveland has lots of holes, and after moving down twice they'll have plenty of first-day picks. Green Bay can still grab an Earnest Shazor-type in the late second to fill the safety need.

 

19. St. Louis - Jammal Brown, OT

 

A need pick. Brown has the beef to block for Jackson, and he may even be able to replace Pace one day. Martz realizes his "Max Q" offense has become an "Adequate Q" offense, without the wall up front that makes it all go . . .

 

20. Dallas - Khalif Barnes, OT

 

No matter how you slice it, Dallas always seems to make out like a bandit in these mocks. They got their outside rusher eariler, and now they get their OL help in Barnes. A great pick.

 

21. Jacksonville - Mark Clayton, WR

 

Everybody's on this guy as a sleeper to move up, but there are three WR ahead of him, and the only teams that need WR above Jacksonville have bigger needs and/or better players to fill them with. They were expecting huge things from Reggie Williams, and Jimmy Smith is old enough that they need to draft a WR whether Williams pans out or not.

 

22. Baltimore - Marcus Spears, DE

 

This guy has the talent to go higher, but most teams are looking for an explosive edge rusher--and that ain't Spears. He is, however, a potential force at DE, and is a nice fit for the Ravens whether they're running a 3-4 or 4-3.

 

23. Seattle - Justin Miller, CB

 

Herndon will fill Ken Lucas's shoes just fine. No, really, he will. Swear to God . . .

 

24. Cleveland (from Green Bay)- Charlie Frye, QB

 

Local Boy Makes Good. Cleveland fans don't need another overhyped 'franchise' QB to be anointed savior, paid millions of their dollars and then thrown to the wolves. What they need is a QB with skills who can be properly mentored, and Frye fits that bill just fine. Cleveland attended Frye's workout AND invited Frye to work out at their facility later . . .

 

25. Denver - Ciatrick Fason, RB

 

Before you all start blasting this pick, let me state that I have absolutely no clue as to what's going on in Mike Shanahan's head these days, and we all know he can't make do with just one running back. Personally, I've never been a Bell believer, and Fason is a serious talent.

 

26. Manhattan Jets - Matt Jones

 

The Jets take the plunge on the next guy they'll call "The Freak". The defense was there last year, but the passing game was not. McCareins is actually very underrated IMO, but I don't know if Coles is ever going to be a legit #1. Jones has sky-high upside, and you don't say no to that when you're sitting at the twenty-sixth pick.

 

27. Atlanta - Demarcus Ware, DE/OLB

 

Atlanta needs an end, and Ware is by far the best of the bunch that's fallen. He may also be able to add depth at LB, depending on how some of the FA acquisitions work out.

 

28. San Diego - Shaun Cody, DE

 

A good 3-4 end, and very good value for the Bolts at this spot.

 

29. Indianapolis - Channing Crowder, LB

 

Dungy hasn't had the linebackers to run his scheme to its fullest since he left Tampa Bay. Crowder helps that defense in a big, big way.

 

30. Pittsburgh - Fabian Washington, CB

 

Pittsburgh has to be able to stop Indy and New England if they want to make it to the top, and somehow I don't see either of those teams slowing it down anytime soon. Washington gives the Steelers legit speed on the outside.

 

31. Detroit (from Philadelphia)- Marlin Jackson, CB

 

The Lions are drooling over Rolle as a cover corner who can hit (and maybe play safety), and they get a similar player in Jackson--for millions less.

 

32. Darryl Blackstock, OLB

 

Best LB prospect left on the board . . . it's a need pick here.

 

 

 

Okay, this mock needs some work, but this is one of the hardest drafts to predict in a long time. A lot of folks will be questioning the Lions/Eagles deal, but if the first nine picks unfold as I predict (and I have a pretty good feeling they will), the Lions are left with Barron or trade, and the Eagles have the firepower and desire to move up for Benson. The Lions would love to get that kind of depth--picking up Marlin Jackson, Kevin Burnett, and Alex Smith (TE), for example, would be much better than just Barron and one of the above. Plus, it saves them money.

 

I'm also going to catch a lot of flack for the Carolina pick, but IMO players go closer to their talent grade than most mocks project, and Miller projects to right in the middle of the round. He also neatly fills a possesion-receiver role that neither Steve Smith nor Keary Colbert can claim.

 

And I was not trying to copy Cheezhead with the Cleveland/Minny trade, it just makes too much darn sense.

 

All right, bring on the flames!

 

Peace

policy

Edited April 15, 2005 by policyvote

[Clubfoothead]

11. Dallas - Shawn Merriman, DE/OLB

 

This is a perfect fit - speed, size, and rush ability from the outside, whether he plays in a 3-4 or 4-3 alignment.

 

 

20. Dallas - Khalif Barnes, OT

 

No matter how you slice it, Dallas always seems to make out like a bandit in these mocks.  They got their outside rusher eariler, and now they get their OL help in Barnes.  A great pick.

 

 

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Not bad. Swiss has converted me to wanting a tackle at the 1.20 and I'm hoping for Jammal Brown first but I saw who you had at 19.

 

I'll tell you this, locally the media here is all of a sudden on the Demarcus Ware bandwagon, which seems redundant to me if you draft Merriman. I don't know what to make of it and just hold my breath and sleep easy knowing Merriman was in town meeting with the Team yesterday.

[A Little Bit Special]

Ick...praying you are 100% wrong with your GB trade\pick

[policyvote]

Ick...praying you are 100% wrong with your GB trade\pick

 

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Who would you rather see?

 

Peace

policy

[trrhyne]

I agree that the Panther's pick is a tough one to predict. I think getting a free agent TE is the right thing to do and then draft either the top DT or grab one of the top RBs or WRs if they slide.

[A Little Bit Special]

With both Poole and Davis still on the board, as well as a couple of CB prospects and SEA being the only team that may scoop them on a CB I just don't think they'll trade up. While you are right that this is something Sherman might do, he isn't running the draft this year. Ted Thompson is the new GM.

[policyvote]

With both Poole and Davis still on the board, as well as a couple of CB prospects and SEA being the only team that may scoop them on a CB I just don't think they'll trade up.  While you are right that this is something Sherman might do, he isn't running the draft this year.  Ted Thompson is the new GM.

 

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Whoops, you're right, Sherman isn't running the draft anymore. However, Carlos Rogers represents a big-time value; he's a significant upgrade over any of the other CBs. There's no way Rogers falls to them there. I agree that they might stand pat and take Davis, too, but you can get a safety who's good enough to start right away in the second and third rounds. A CB like Rogers is a far rarer commodity, and if you can get a guy like that when your need is that great, IMO you jump on it.

 

Peace

policy

[dread]

There is no way the Vikings would trade up to pick williams or edwards. Having arguably the best WR in football hasn't helped the Vikings since Moss's rookie season. What is the last Super Bowl winning team to have an elite WR...the 49er's and Jerry Rice? I don't see why they would throw away a chance to get a workhorse running back and grab a receiver with their later 1st-round pick. Cedrick Benson and Mark Clayton or Braylon Edwards? Seems like a pretty easy decision to me. Tice isn't the sharpest knife on the tree but luckily he won't be the only one making the decision. If they don't go RB they need to go defense.

[policyvote]

There is no way the Vikings would trade up to pick williams or edwards.  Having arguably the best WR in football hasn't helped the Vikings since Moss's rookie season.  What is the last Super Bowl winning team to have an elite WR...the 49er's and Jerry Rice?  I don't see why they would throw away a chance to get a workhorse running back and grab a receiver with their later 1st-round pick.  Cedrick Benson and Mark Clayton or Braylon Edwards?  Seems like a pretty easy decision to me.  Tice isn't the sharpest knife on the tree but luckily he won't be the only one making the decision.  If they don't go RB they need to go defense.

 

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Three points:

 

* Red doesn't want to have to pay two guys first-round signing bonuses.

 

* This is the Vikings we're talking about. Like they'd make a draft day move that made sense?

 

* "defense"--where would they go, on defense? They've been collecting linebackers for the past three years running, there's no DL worth taking that anywhere near that high, they've paid Winfield and Smoot huge cash over the past two years, and Lord knows they don't need a safety.

 

Peace

policy

[A Little Bit Special]

Whoops, you're right, Sherman isn't running the draft anymore.  However, Carlos Rogers represents a big-time value; he's a significant upgrade over any of the other CBs.  There's no way Rogers falls to them there.  I agree that they might stand pat and take Davis, too, but you can get a safety who's good enough to start right away in the second and third rounds.  A CB like Rogers is a far rarer commodity, and if you can get a guy like that when your need is that great, IMO you jump on it.

 

Peace

policy

 

780398[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

According to what I've read after Poole and Davis (and some are questioning whether he will actually play safety at the next level) there is a huge dropoff at the safety position in this draft. Shazor is in that next tier and is also being projected to LB because of his coverage skills or lack thereof.

 

They did sign Freeman (Arturo not Antonio) and I'm guessing he'll end up starting at one of the safety positions even though Bates says there will be an open competition.

 

It isn't so much that I don't like Rogers. I just don't like them giving up first-day picks to move up. Despite their FA signings they still have big questions at the interior OL positions, Ahman is getting the age that RBs start breaking down, Najeh will be a UFA next year, their DL isn't anything special, and obviously Favre won't be around much longer.

[The Irish Doggy]

Nice to see the Bengals take someone other than Travis Johnson. I think most sites have just copied and pasted from one to another.

 

If you watch their games, the Bengals didn't get beat inside so much as outside. That's on the linebackers and ends who didn't make the tackle or were out of position.

 

I would really be suprised if they went DT in round 1. They've drafted 2 project DTs 2 years in a row, have John Thornton who is solid, and just signed Bryan Johnson. They have at least one more player who can float between DE and DT on the roster. They may not have studs, but they are OK.

 

Pollack is a solid choice as is DE Spears or WR Mark Clayton from the choices left in your mock IMO. The pass rush must be addressed in this draft and they need a speed WR as they are worried if Warrick will really return to play like he did in 2003.

Edited April 15, 2005 by The Irish Doggy

[policyvote]

Nice to see the Bengals take someone other than Travis Johnson.    I think most sites have just copied and pasted from one to another.

 

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I like Matthias Askew to step up for you guys this year. He played at State, and has surprising pass-rush ability for a man his size. He would have been a first-rounder had he stayed for his senior year, but he came out early due to family trouble. Johnson is getting projected a little high, because he's the best of a bad DT group, IMO. Pollack would be a much better fit.

 

Spears is a good player, but he's not speed guy, not a pass rusher. He's more like a Leon Lett-type end, a big strong guy who's brutal against the run and is big enough and strong enough to get some sacks sometimes. Not a good fit for the Bengals IMO.

 

With CJ, Houshmandzadeh, Warrick and Washington, I'd figure the Bengals are looking okay at WR for quite a while . . .

 

Peace

policy

[Jumpin Johnies]

You're always dropping knowledge Policy. I like that.

[Jackass]

 

5. Tampa Bay - Mike Williams, WR

 

I don't buy Gruden as having such insatiable man-love for Williams that he moves up to get him; OTOH if he's available at 1.5, I don't see him passing.  Everyone and his brother talks about Chris Simms flopping, but he's actually developed much faster than I thought he might.  I heard that Gruden had actually bragged about stealing Simms at the Hawaiian NFL meetings this offseason . . . I don't see him taking Smith here.

 

 

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just read this on cbs sportsline for what it's worth

 

News: The Miami Herald reports the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would like to trade up to the No. 1 overall selection in the draft in order to select Utah's Alex Smith.

[Chargerz]

Not bad, policy. The bolts could do worse than get a quality WR and DE!!

[policyvote]

News: The Miami Herald reports the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are spreading around a bunch of BS just like every other team at this time of year.

 

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Peace

policy

[Shot_Kings]

Peace

policy

 

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Love the BS line about TB. I agree that there is no way Gruden moves up to draft a QB. Chris Simms (the most under-coached QB in college football history) will be given a chance to prove he is TB's QB of the future.

 

But no way Denver uses a first round pick to draft a RB. Shanahan has had too much success drafting RBs later in the draft to be willing to pay first round money to a RB - 2nd round maybe, 5th or 6th round for sure, but 1st round, no way!

Edited April 15, 2005 by Shot_Kings

[Rovers]

26. Manhattan Jets - Matt Jones

 

The Jets take the plunge on the next guy they'll call "The Freak". The defense was there last year, but the passing game was not. McCareins is actually very underrated IMO, but I don't know if Coles is ever going to be a legit #1. Jones has sky-high upside, and you don't say no to that when you're sitting at the twenty-sixth pick

 

 

Policy.... stop hanging out with Ricky. Really. There is no way, absolutely NO WAY the Jets don't draft to need in 2005, and a project like Jones is not what a team with playoff aspirations and several HUGH holes to fill goes this way. They will draft what they hope will be a starter here... (if Miller is gone) a CB, Safety, ORT. They could also go DRT if there is one they happen to like. If the Jets take Jones there, I will set my couch on fire and sit on it naked, while singing "I'm a Lumberjack" and eating fritos..... through my nose.

[Swiss Cheezhead]

Nice job, policy.

 

I also disagree with the Packers' selection, however. They need to draft a starter in the 1st round and I'm not sure Rogers would beat out Carroll in camp.

 

Green Bay's selection is simple, to me: draft the best available LB or S available on their board.

[Donutrun Jellies]

26. Manhattan Jets - Matt Jones

 

The Jets take the plunge on the next guy they'll call "The Freak". The defense was there last year, but the passing game was not. McCareins is actually very underrated IMO, but I don't know if Coles is ever going to be a legit #1. Jones has sky-high upside, and you don't say no to that when you're sitting at the twenty-sixth pick

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Pittsburgh wouldn't mind MJones falling to them at 30, though I'd like a burner CB and a bull of an OG/OT and a pass rusher as well somewhere in the draft ...

[Rovers]

I just tried eating a Frito through my nose.... I changed my mind.

[policyvote]

lol, nice. Tomorrow I'll edit this to reflect consensus on the Pack and Jets picks.

 

Peace

policy

[The Irish Doggy]

I like Matthias Askew to step up for you guys this year.  He played at State, and has surprising pass-rush ability for a man his size.  He would have been a first-rounder had he stayed for his senior year, but he came out early due to family trouble.  Johnson is getting projected a little high, because he's the best of a bad DT group, IMO.  Pollack would be a much better fit.

 

With CJ, Houshmandzadeh, Warrick and Washington, I'd figure the Bengals are looking okay at WR for quite a while . . .

 

Peace

policy

 

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Yeah, most people forget about Askew. We'll see what he can do this year for sure.

 

As for the WRs, its a great group if healthy. But Warrick is an unknown coming back from knee surgery and a broken tibia (or was it fibia? no matter). Plus its his final contract year. Who knows if he'll be back. Housh doesn't have much in speed even if he is tough and willing to go over the middle. He's also been injury prone in the past. Washington seems like a bust IMO - too selfish.

 

But of course CJ is a stud and realy makes it all work. If he got hurt though, the rest won't scare anyone. Another good WR or recieving TE would be very nice.

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

I find myself hoping the Vikings use both their first round picks. Maybe Merriman or Benson at 7 and Williamson or Clayton at 18.

[Rovers]

Policy..... there actually is a veeeery long shot chance the Jets could go Jones. If they think he can start this year as a TE, they just might roll the dice.... it would be a mistake in my opinion though... a big one. Bradway now says he's going to use a second year guy who hasnt played at all in the ORT spot. He's also talking up Chris Baker, now pencilled in at the starting TE spot. It looks more and more like a CB to replace Donnie Abraham. It was no secret last year that they werent happy with him, and he's old to boot. From what GM Bradway is saying, I think he's preparing to justify a DB pick n the first round.