policy's mock v2.0

[policyvote]

All edits are in italics:

 

1. San Francisco - Alex Smith, QB

 

The Niners need a franchise player, and Alex Smith is the most physically gifted QB available. If Nolan is smart, this guy won't see the field much his first season; they really need this pick to work out.

 

2. Miami - Cadillac Williams, RB

 

All the noise about Ricky returning was just that--noise. OC Scott Linehan has his "for now" QB in Frerotte, and Feeley is still young. There's no reason to reach for a QB here, and there's no way Rodgers is worth 1.2 money. Saban does the smart thing and drafts a workhorse back with hands.

 

3. Minnesota (from Cleveland) - Braylon Edwards, WR

 

Practically every move Tice has made has been to solidfy the running game and defense, but if they don't end up with a bona fide stud WR with thier first rounder, Minny fans will have his head. Williams will not fall to 1.7, and Cleveland can't justify going defense at 1.3. They do the natural thing and work out a deal. Minny ends up with their Moss replacement (in more ways than they'll initially understand), and Cleveland gets to draft defense rather than reach for a mid-round QB prospect at 1.3.

 

4. Chicago - Ronnie Brown, RB

 

Lovie Smith may be a defensive coach, and the Bears might need help practically everywhere on the field, but he sees the writing on the wall. NFL coaches don't get four or five years to turn it around anymore, and if Grossman struggles the offense needs someone they can hang their hat on. They take the best immediate-impact offensive player on the board in Brown.

 

5. Tampa Bay - Mike Williams, WR

 

This move-up-for-Alex-Smith stuff is hogwash. Everyone and his brother talks about Chris Simms flopping, but he's actually developed much faster than I thought he might. I heard that Gruden had actually bragged about stealing Simms at the Hawaiian NFL meetings this offseason . . . I also don't buy Gruden as having such insatiable man-love for Mike Williams that he moves up to get him; OTOH if he's available at 1.5, I don't see him passing.

 

6. Tennessee - Antrell Rolle, CB

 

This guy is a stud and the Titans need him.

 

7. Cleveland (from Minnesota)- Derrick Johnson, LB

 

This is the player the Browns need, and this is the slot he's worth taking at. They might even overpay him at 1.3, but when Minny gets on the horn, first-time GM Phil Savage is happy to take the call and move down.

 

8. Arizona - Aaron Rodgers, QB

 

Denny Green has the WRs to make his offense run, and he knows he can grab a very good RB in the second round (or through a trade). He also knows that the QB cupboard is bare, and Warner is a one-year stopgap solution. Rodgers is a good value here at 1.8.

 

9. Washington - Pac-man Jones, CB

 

Desperate need, great player. I'm fairly certian that Gibbs doesn't have a bias against small, explosive CBs. The trade talks with Buchanon make a lot of sense for Washington, but none for Oakland. Either way, this pick stays the same, Jones at 1.9.

 

10. Philadelphia (from Detroit) - Cedric Benson, RB

 

Here's the big curveball. I've been saying this whole time that the Lions would take Alex Barron, if available. I personally think that's the right move here, but from what I'm gathering the Lions are hoping one of the two stud corners falls to them. When that doesn't happen, and DJ is off the board, Barron becomes the only reasonable pick. However, apparently the Lions are geniunely of the opinion that one of their two young guys, Kelly Butler and Victor Rogers, will be able to fill the hole at RT nicely. The Eagles, meanwhile, are stupid. Er, no, actually, they're really smart. Even though Westbrook was nothing but a playmaker for them all last season, Andy Reid has never been able to leave well enough alone at RB. From what I'm hearing the Eagles want a stud workhorse who can play the ball-control game. Benson and Westbrook would be a devastating combination. Millen has always loved to move around, and the Eagles have three picks in the first two rounds to trade with. If he could swing 1.10 for 1.31, 2.3, and/or 2.31 I think he'd do it. What the Lions lack now, more than anything, is DEPTH.

 

11. Dallas - Shawn Merriman, DE/OLB

 

This is a perfect fit - speed, size, and rush ability from the outside, whether he plays in a 3-4 or 4-3 alignment.

 

12. San Diego - Troy Williamson, WR

 

The Bolts FINALLY get their deep threat. They've only been waiting since . . . uh . . . when was the last time the Bolts had a WR who could run? This guy's stock has been rising, and the Bolts are glad to get him here.

 

13. Houston - Alex Barron, OT

 

Another obvious pick, but the Texans' need is great and Barron's talent is even greater. When DD had holes to run through last year, he was impressive, and if they ever want Carr to step up, they'll have to keep him from running for his life.

 

14. Carolina - Heath Miller, TE

 

This is the hardest pick in the first round to project. There are any number of ways the Pathers could go, but with no stud interior lineman I think they take the best offensive player available, and that's Miller.

 

15. Kansas City - Erasmus James, DE

 

This is a coin flip between James and Carlos Rogers, but I think they'll find a way to bring in Surtain or Law, making James the pick here. This starts the run on the "edge-rushers-with-question-marks".

 

16. New Orleans - Travis Johnson, DT

 

Worthlessness, thy name is Jonathon Sullivan. They'd probably take Rogers here too, but this defense needs an inside presence badly.

 

17. Cincinnati - David Pollack, DE

 

They need an edge rusher with a motor, and Pollack is certianly that. A nice guy, or a can't-miss prospect, he certainly isn't, but the Bengals take the best edge rusher they can get here.

 

18. Cleveland (from Minnesota) - Charlie Frye, QB

 

Local Boy Makes Good. Cleveland fans don't need another overhyped 'franchise' QB to be anointed savior, paid millions of their dollars and then thrown to the wolves. What they need is a QB with skills who can be properly mentored, and Frye fits that bill just fine. Cleveland attended Frye's workout AND invited Frye to work out at their facility later . . .

 

19. St. Louis - Carlos Rogers, CB

 

I changed my mind, Martz isn't smart enough to take the tackle here. If Rogers falls to St. Louis at 19, I bet Martz hits the crack pipe and improves his team speed. Aeneas Williams is just about to shuffle off this football coil . . .

 

20. Dallas - Khalif Barnes, OT

 

No matter how you slice it, Dallas always seems to make out like a bandit in these mocks. They got their outside rusher eariler, and now they get their OL help in Barnes. A great pick.

 

21. Jacksonville - Mark Clayton, WR

 

Everybody's on this guy as a sleeper to move up, but there are three WR ahead of him, and the only teams that need WR above Jacksonville have bigger needs and/or better players to fill them with. They were expecting huge things from Reggie Williams, and Jimmy Smith is old enough that they need to draft a WR whether Williams pans out or not.

 

22. Baltimore - Jammal Brown, OT

 

The Ravens get a big, bad tackle that keeps the ground game moving. I bumped Spears off this pick because I think Brown represents slightly better value, and slightly higher need for the Ravens.

 

23. Seattle - Demarcus Ware, DE/OLB

 

Seattle needs an edge presence, and whether that comes from the end spot or the OLB spot, it doesn't really matter. Ware will provide nice flexibility, depth, and effectiveness in situational duty right away.

 

24. Green Bay- Thomas Davis, S

 

Green Bay's needs in the secondary are almost laughable. Some think of Davis as an S/LB 'tweener, but the Pack will think of him as a talented player who they can line up at safety. This card is going to take all of three seconds to turn in.

 

25. Denver - Marcus Spears, DE/DT

 

Denver's Bad Cleveland DL Collection still doesn't equal a real DL. If Spears is available this late, the Broncos owe it to themselves to take a real 3-4 end with real talent. Not saying that means they'll take him, but . . . .

 

26. Manhattan Jets - Justin Miller, CB

 

I'm taking Rovers' advice and putting down the bong for a second. Assuming the Jets can't swing a deal for a verteran corner before they go on the clock, they'll take the best available corner.

 

27. Atlanta - Matt Jones, Jack of All Trades

 

The Falcons groan when Spears stops his slide just before them. However, Jones is too intriguing of a physical specimen to let slide. Vick has needed a tall fast receiver since Day One, and having a non-Crumpler red zone target would be very appealing.

 

28. San Diego - Shaun Cody, DE

 

A good 3-4 end, and very good value for the Bolts at this spot.

 

29. Indianapolis - Channing Crowder, LB

 

Dungy hasn't had the linebackers to run his scheme to its fullest since he left Tampa Bay. Crowder helps that defense in a big, big way.

 

30. Pittsburgh - Fabian Washington, CB

 

Pittsburgh has to be able to stop Indy and New England if they want to make it to the top, and somehow I don't see either of those teams slowing it down anytime soon. Washington gives the Steelers legit speed on the outside.

 

31. Detroit (from Philadelphia)- Marlin Jackson, CB

 

The Lions are drooling over Rolle as a cover corner who can hit (and maybe play safety), and they get a similar player in Jackson--for millions less.

 

32. Barrett Ruud, LB

 

They need an LB, and I'm now agreeing with the opinion that Ruud fits the "Pats mold" better than Blackstock.

 

Okay, now how is it?

 

Peace

policy

Edited April 19, 2005 by policyvote

[Jumpin Johnies]

Still dropping his knowledge.

[Egret]

I don't think the Lions will be taking Barron now either. For whatever reason, the Lions sound like a team that isn't looking o-line. I think the Lions are looking DJ now too. The Lions are throwing up big smoke screens this year. They could do just about anything.

[policyvote]

I don't think the Lions will be taking Barron now either.  For whatever reason, the Lions sound like a team that isn't looking o-line.  I think the Lions are looking DJ now too.  The Lions are throwing up big smoke screens this year.  They could do just about anything.

 

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No, they seem genuinely convinced that Butler or Rogers can get it done. I think if DJ or either of the CBs falls, though, they'll jump all over him.

 

Peace

policy

[T-Scorp]

#7 and #18 is way too steep for one player. Putting the trade in prospective...

 

Randy Moss and the #18 overall for Braylon Edwards, Napolean Harris, and Sam Cowell.

 

I think the Vikings may try and trade up but offer a 3rd round instead. Cleveland picks up an extra pick and can sign the player they want at a much cheaper salary.

 

Personally I think the Vikings should stay put and just draft the best player available whether it be a defensive player or an offensive player. We have a chance to draft two starting players to help make this team better. Who knows if our FA signings are going to work out. Draft for depth if you have to.

[whomper]

Still dropping his knowledge.

 

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Would you get off his tip already..

[Chargerz]

For the Chargers Troy Williamson and Shaun Cody are definite possibilities. Both are quality players and fill holes in the Bolt line-up!!

[policyvote]

#7 and #18 is way too steep for one player.  Putting the trade in prospective...

 

Randy Moss and the #18 overall for Braylon Edwards, Napolean Harris, and Sam Cowell. 

 

I think the Vikings may try and trade up but offer a 3rd round instead.  Cleveland picks up an extra pick and can sign the player they want at a much cheaper salary.

 

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And to put it into perspective for YOU, last year the Browns gave up the 2.8 just for the privilege of moving up ONE SPOT, from 1.8 to 1.7. Not to mention the Giants giving up three picks (including their first this year!) to trade 1.4 for 1.1. Every team uses the point value system developed by Jimmy Johnson to assign value to draft picks, and 1.7 + 1.18 for 1.3 is right about on the money under that system.

 

The Browns would much rather have Derrick Johnson and Charlie Frye than DJ OR Aaron Rodgers, and the Vikes would much rather have Braylon Edwards than reach for Troy Williamson and add whoever's there at 1.18. That's why this trade works. I should mention that not only am I myself projecting this trade, but it's being heavily rumored everywhere that this exact trade is going to happen.

 

Peace

policy

[Rovers]

#7 and #18 is way too steep for one player.  Putting the trade in prospective...

 

Randy Moss and the #18 overall for Braylon Edwards, Napolean Harris, and Sam Cowell. 

 

I think the Vikings may try and trade up but offer a 3rd round instead.  Cleveland picks up an extra pick and can sign the player they want at a much cheaper salary.

 

Personally I think the Vikings should stay put and just draft the best player available whether it be a defensive player or an offensive player.  We have a chance to draft two starting players to help make this team better.  Who knows if our FA signings are going to work out.  Draft for depth if you have to.

 

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The problem with that is this ridiculous draft pick/ value table that most NFL teams swear they will go by. According to that table, both of the Vikings 1st round picks equal the 1.3 form Cleveland. Add in the fact that signing a 1.3 is cheaper than signing both #7 and #18, it makes sense.... to the NFL, at least.

 

Policy, with Dyson visiting the Jets, and they would be idoits NOT to sign him, especially with Donnie Abraham threatening to retire before the Jets eventually cut him, Matt Jones does become a remote, I say remote possibility unless Miller slips by Carolina. The Jets, despite having said that Baker is the starting TE, would love to get Miller, and would trade up to get him, but only to the 18 and later slots. So, if they sign Dyson, and lose out on Miller, Jones might be considered. The problem is he has a rep as a too laid back sort, whose intensity desire to play has been questioned. Herm Edwards does NOT like surfer dudes. Plus, he's never played TE. Unless the Jets braintrust (using that term lightly) thinks he could contribute immediately, I just dont see it.

 

So, I see the Jets going this way now.... they sign Dyson, and trade down (presuming they can find a trading partner) from the 27 spot. Bradway says they think there are only about 18 bona-fide first round picks in this draft. If one of them don't fall to 27, they will do what they can to trade down.... unless, of course, they screw up and dont sign Dyson. Then, it's back to the best available CB. Nice job.

[myhousekey]

I think the Saints are looking pretty hard at Thomas Davis at #16. I'd rather a corner (Rodgers) but they like the fact Davis can play LB as well

[loaf]

#18 is too early for Frye...GBs bluffing...we can still nab him in the 2nd...

[policyvote]

#18 is too early for Frye...GBs bluffing...we can still nab him in the 2nd...

 

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I originally had GB trading up with Cleveland to nab Carlos Rogers on the slide, and Cleveand taking Frye with the 1.24. However, everyone said there's no way the Pack moves up to take a corner with an impact safety still on the board. If Cleveland trades with Minny, reaching a few slots for their targeted QB of the future is not too big of a strain.

 

Peace

policy

[Wizards]

Great job "Policy"....very thorough and inciteful...makes more sense then the vast majority of mock drafts I've seen....lots of smoke and mirrors to look beyond--the fun now is to see how well you do...great info!!

 

Believe Jason Campbell will be the QB sought late in the first round and there will be shuffling, scuffling, grunting and posturing as the first round ends and the 2nd begins....it's going to be fun to watch!!!!!

[Sam]

All edits are in italics:

 

 

14. Carolina - Heath Miller, TE

 

This is the hardest pick in the first round to project. There are any number of ways the Pathers could go, but with no stud interior lineman I think they take the best offensive player available, and that's Miller.

 

 

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Nice work Policy.

 

Carolina just signed Freddie Jones, so I doubt they spend this pick on a TE....just an FYI.

[A Little Bit Special]

I obviously like GB's pick in this one better than your first one. They have a need at both LB and S. Davis will be able to fill one of those. A no brainer IMO if he's available at 24.

[Jumpin Johnies]

Would you get off his tip already..

 

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[Jumpin Johnies]

Nice work Policy.

 

Carolina just signed Freddie Jones, so I doubt they spend this pick on a TE....just an FYI.

 

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Freddie Jones sucks! We signed him to a one year deal, enough said. If we don't trade down to take Khalif Barnes or Jamal Brown, then I hope that we take Matt Jones or Heath Miller. I know that Jones is a stretch at 14 but I don't care. Jones has only had private workouts with Philly, Washington and Carolina. He's on our radar at 14.

[policyvote]

Freddie Jones sucks!  We signed him to a one year deal, enough said.  If we don't trade down to take Khalif Barnes or Jamal Brown, then I hope that we take Matt Jones or Heath Miller.  I know that Jones is a stretch at 14 but I don't care.  Jones has only had private workouts with Philly, Washington and Carolina.  He's on our radar at 14.

 

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The Lions just signed Marcus Pollard, too, but that doesn't mean they'd pass on Alex Smith in the second round. Miller is a big, athletic TE with soft hands--having a big reliable target like that for years to come would be very helpful. And the signing of Jones actually makes the drafting of Miller MORE likely--it shows they're intent on upgrading the position, and the one-year deal shows that they don't think they'll need Jones' services for very long. Jones will be a nice mentor and stopgap measure while Miller develops.

 

Peace

policy

[Jumpin Johnies]

The Lions just signed Marcus Pollard, too, but that doesn't mean they'd pass on Alex Smith in the second round.  Miller is a big, athletic TE with soft hands--having a big reliable target like that for years to come would be very helpful.  And the signing of Jones actually makes the drafting of Miller MORE likely--it shows they're intent on upgrading the position, and the one-year deal shows that they don't think they'll need Jones' services for very long.  Jones will be a nice mentor and stopgap measure while Miller develops.

 

Peace

policy

 

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I'm not sure if you read my post, but I basically said that in a nutshell.

[policyvote]

I'm not sure if you read my post, but I basically said that in a nutshell.

 

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Yes, your nutshell was "Freddie Jones sucks! Enough said." Then you talked about Matt Jones for a while.

 

I talked a lot more about Miller, didn't even mention Matt Jones, and was actually explaining why the singing of Freddie Jones not only doesn't preclude the drafting of Miller, but in a certain light actually makes it more likely that Miller is the pick at 14.

 

Peace

policy

Edited April 20, 2005 by policyvote

[Jumpin Johnies]

We signed him to a one year deal, enough said.

 

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By saying this, I thought everyone would understand that we don't have this guy in our long term plans and he would have no impact on how we drafted. I guess I should've spelled it out for you people. I believe that I also said that I wouldn't mind if we picked Miller if we didn't trade down for O-Line help or jump the gun on Jones.

[Swiss Cheezhead]

And to put it into perspective for YOU, last year the Browns gave up the 2.8 just for the privilege of moving up ONE SPOT, from 1.8 to 1.7.  Not to mention the Giants giving up three picks (including their first this year!) to trade 1.4 for 1.1.  Every team uses the point value system developed by Jimmy Johnson to assign value to draft picks, and 1.7 + 1.18 for 1.3 is right about on the money under that system.

 

The Browns would much rather have Derrick Johnson and Charlie Frye than DJ OR Aaron Rodgers, and the Vikes would much rather have Braylon Edwards than reach for Troy Williamson and add whoever's there at 1.18.  That's why this trade works.  I should mention that not only am I myself projecting this trade, but it's being heavily rumored everywhere that this exact trade is going to happen.

 

Peace

policy

 

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It's a shame that you actually HAD to explain that in response to T-Scorp's post, but you did it well.

 

By trading up to #3, the Vikes are sure to get one of the top 2 WRs, both of whom they really like. The fact that the trade squares beautifully with the value chart makes almost a no-brainer for both teams.

[Jumpin Johnies]

It's a shame that you actually HAD to explain that in response to T-Scorp's post, but you did it well.

 

By trading up to #3, the Vikes are sure to get one of the top 2 WRs, both of whom they really like. The fact that the trade squares beautifully with the value chart makes almost a no-brainer for both teams.

 

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Policy drops knowledge. Any sucker that's dumb enough to challege his authoritie gets smacked back into reality by his superior football knowledge.

Edited April 20, 2005 by Jumpin Johnies

[Swiss Cheezhead]

As for the rest...

 

1. I didn't look it up, but does the value chart come even CLOSE to making the Detroit/Philly deal work? It seems like a stretch, but if you think Millen would do it, then....I guess Millen is retarded.

 

2. There's no way I see Martz passing on an OT, especially a perfect RT prospect like J. Brown or K. Barnes. And, if he's dumb enough to that, I can't imagine it would be for a cornerback. Fisher and Butler have played reasonably well and Martz drafted Dejuan Groce and Kevin Garrett as the nickel and dime backs a couple of years ago.

 

3. I'm really curious why you had the Jags passing on an OT & a CB to grab a WR. I'd agree that Clayton would be the best player available in that scenario, but they seem to have a surplus of decent WRs with R. Williams, T. Edwards, E. Wilford, & C. Hankton to go along with J. Smith.

[policyvote]

As for the rest...

 

1. I didn't look it up, but does the value chart come even CLOSE to making the Detroit/Philly deal work? It seems like a stretch, but if you think Millen would do it, then....I guess Millen is retarded.

 

Good question; I forgot to look this up as well, partially because I didn't nail it down as to exactly which picks would go to the Lions. The Eagles have like a zillion picks this year, and I'm going under the assumption that the trade is 1.10 for 1.31, 2.3, "plus" (as in "more picks involved but I don't want to do the legwork on which"). The reason it's compelling to for he Lions to move down in this scenario is that all the immediate impact non-RB talents (Rolle, Jones, Johnson, Edwards, Williams) are gone. Further, the Lions now have three young prospects they like competing for the RT spot, making the choice of Barron unlikely. Philly desperately wants a between-the-tackles workhorse. Benson fits the bill, and is unlikely to slide much farther than the Lions (supposing he slides that far to begin with). In this scenario, Millen is basically choosing between Barron, Merriman, and picking (up to) four times in the first two rounds. I'd have to say that drafting at 1.31, 2.3, 2.9, and 2.31 is a pretty attractive concept, especially in this particular draft. The Lions have a solid starting 22; what they really need is talented depth. That's what sets teams like the Patriots apart--they lose starters and the backups pick right up. The Lions have been beset by injuries for, oh, ever, and there's always been a BIG dropoff between RB #1 and RB #2, or CB # 1 and CB # 3, or WR #1 and WR #3, 4, 5, or 6 . . . Stocking lots of talented prospects would be something that Millen would have to look seriously at. My final mock (coming Friday) will probaby not include this trade, because I'm inclined to believe the rumors that Da Bears are looking at Benson.

 

2. There's no way I see Martz passing on an OT, especially a perfect RT prospect like J. Brown or K. Barnes. And, if he's dumb enough to that, I can't imagine it would be for a cornerback. Fisher and Butler have played reasonably well and Martz drafted Dejuan Groce and Kevin Garrett as the nickel and dime backs a couple of years ago.

 

Two words for you: Trung Candidate. Martz has always been a sucker for a fast 40 time, and Rogers is skyrocketing up most boards. Rumor has it that some teams have him over Jones or Rolle or BOTH. If Rogers fell that far, I see Martz being hypnotized by the talent. Actually, based on the above, my next mock will probably have Rogers going higher anyway.

 

3. I'm really curious why you had the Jags passing on an OT & a CB to grab a WR. I'd agree that Clayton would be the best player available in that scenario, but they seem to have a surplus of decent WRs with R. Williams, T. Edwards, E. Wilford, & C. Hankton to go along with J. Smith.

 

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For starters, Smith is on his last legs, and knowing how long it usually takes a WR to develop, they need another WR badly. The Jags were slobbering over Williams in the preseason, but he simply didn't show up in the regular season. If they're smart, they're not counting on Williams becoming a stud any time soon. None of the other recievers you mention qualify as "decent" in my book, especially if Smith disintegrates and Williams doesn't turn it on. This is a team built around Leftwich, and he needs targets that can get open before the pass rush gets there--'cuz he ain't dodging it, that's for sure. Clayton is a great value there, and a surer thing than any of the available CB or OT prospects at that slot. If I'm the Jags, I'd much rather take Clayton in the first and gamble on, say, Munoz in the third, than take Brown in the first and a project WR in the third.

 

Peace

policy

Edited April 20, 2005 by policyvote