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The Jets' Draft


Rovers
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The Jets' draft looks like this:

 

Trading #27 to Oakland = TE Doug Jolley and #47, which was used for Ohio State place Kicker Nugent. Would it have been better to hope for TE Heath Miller to fall to #27 instead? In short, NO. The draft is there to fill needs, and to develop players. The Jets parlayed a #27 into two starting players. Jolley is an improvement over the departed Becht, and now, Nugent. Let's first look at the Jets' kicking game last year, and Brien in particular.

 

Brien is 1 for 8 in FG attempts over 50 yards the last five years. While being steady from 43 yards and less, beyond the 45 he is pretty bad. He has a tendency to miss when under more pressure, going 3 for 6 in last year's playoffs, sailing wide right on a 33 yarder against SD, hitting the crossbar from 43 and missing (short) from 47 in the Steeler game. Last year, he was relieved of his kick off duties because in 2003 opposing offenses starting field position was at the 32. He had 72 KO's, and only ONE touchback. Gowans, the now departed to Altanta punter handled KO's last year, and wasnt much better, with an avg starting field position of the 31 yard line. Gowans did at least have 7 touchbacks out of 72 KO's. Neither one had good hang times, and resulted in opponents starting with very good field position. In short, the kicking game was bad. With Gowans now gownzo, the Jets would need a KO specialist along with Brien and a punter. Keeping Brien would cost a roster spot.

 

Now, Mr Nugent. First off, he is a proven cold weather kicker, and Giants Stadium is a bad weather place to kick. Nugent is unusual in a lot of ways. First, some 'not so tangables'. He was a team captain at Ohio State, and won the team's MVP vote his senior year, both firsts in school history. He can throw, having been a high school QB, a nice added benefit to keep up your sleeve for fake FG's. He also hit a 52 yard FG in high school. Now, some hard numbers. In college, he was 72 for 88, and 8 of 9 from 50+ yards. His senior year he went 21 for 24, with five FG's over 50 yards, including a 55 yarder to beat Oklahoma. 34 of his 55 KO's went for touchbacks. His "get off time" is 1.26 seconds, which is quick, to say the least. In addition, he is said to have a very fast rise time on his kicks, even on the 50 yarders. His FG attempts are near impossible to block, barring a problem with the snap or hold. That tragectory also gives his KO's very long hang times, 4.25 seconds vs. the NFL avg of 3.9. That is almost a half second over the average.

 

Sure, there have been some busts with kickers taken on day one of the draft, and Janikowski is the first to be mentioned. While he never lived up to expectations, he has still proven to be one of the better, if not amoung the best FG kickers in the NFL. Another one who did work out was Jason Elam, taken at #70 overall. Keading has also been good, but looks tarnished with the miss (from was it 42?) in the playoffs.

 

So, drafting Nugent opens a roster spot, allows the Jets to try FG's from 45+ and should markedly improve the field position game. I think that could mean 2 to 3 wins. Is there another player in the draft at 47 that could potentially, I say potentially have that much impact on the Jets? Nope. There were four other teams that were willing to draft Nugent in the second or third rounds, Minnesota, Atlanta, Chicago and Tampa.Homers from those teams could be typing this defense as easilly as a Jets fan.

 

#57- Justin Miller

Ranked by many as the 4th best CB in the draft, and never lower than 6th, Miller did the Jets a favor by getting arrested a week before the draft on a noise violation. He is supposed to be the most polished of all the CB's, the one they say is most ready to start, technique wise, while maybe not having all the tools of the CB's ranked 1 through 3. He also had a DUI arrest a couple of years ago, and this caused him to fall into the late second round. he was not under the influence when arrested for the noise violation, resulting from a team party he threw in his apartment. Perhaps the most important thing about Miller is that he is one of the best return men (KO and punt) in the draft. Moss and Jordan handled those responsabilities, and he fills both holes. He should be ready to start in 2006 at corner, which does something else for the team. the Jets can walk away from a 31 year old injured Ty Law, trade for Aaron Glenn for a one year stop gap, and save a TON of cap space in the process.

 

#88- Sione Pouha

A six foot three inch 325 pound monster that isnt fat. A DT, at the combine he blew every other player away on the strength excersices. Great character guy, coming from Utah, but is 26 years old having spent 3 years in a Mormon mission in Pittburgh. Didnt put up great numbers, but was always double or triple teamed, and plugged the middle like a double wide. Perfect to take the slant nose position vacated by Ferguson (Dallas) in the Jets 4-3. Has a rep for getting tired and taking plays off. According to Bradway, the coaches have to improve his technique so that more of that strenght equates to the field, and improve his stamina. He almost never gets knocked down, always staying on his feet.

 

#123 Kerry Rhodes

Rhodes is a safety from Louisville that the Jets traded up four spots to get. He is a converted QB, and should be a special teams starter, with a chance to be a starter at FS down the road. More of a cover sort of guy with speed.

 

#161- Andre Maddox

Another safety, more the SS type, big hitter out of Miami. Bradway says Parcells called him to say he was on his chart as the best special teams D back on his board. He also is sub 4.5 speed, like Rhodes.

 

#182- Cedric Houston

Oft-injured RB out of Tennessee. long shot pick, but he can play special teams and can return kicks too. I dont think this guy is martin's replacement, that is for sure.

 

#198- Joel Dressen

Dressen is a so-so TE out of Colorado State. But, being a long snapper, with a better upside than TE James Dearth, he makes the roster.

 

Last pick- Some guy from Tuskoogee Stae er sumpthin that says he was the steal of the draft. I dont need his name.... neither do the Jets.

 

So, the only hole that was not addressed was the ORT spot. I really like the Nugent pick. They took a risk, and still got the CB we needed badly. They parlayed the #27 pick into Jolley and Nugent. They got two guys that are automatic special teams starters, with a chance to develop into starting safeties. The pundits give the Jets bad grades, but the local on line polls for fans seem very happy with this draft, as am I. I give the Jets a B+. Now, fire away! :D

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Ok. I have been very critical of the Raiders for taking Janikowski in the first round. That being said, taking a kicker in the second isn't so bad, especially with the fact that the Vikings were probably going to take him a few picks later. I still honestly do not like the Jolley for the 26th pick though, even if it did get them a pick in the second round as well. As for Miller, supposedly he played in a wierd defensive scheme for DB's at Clemson. That was part of the reason he fell as well. Teams weren't positive he could play as a straight up cornerback. Overall, for a team that made the play-offs last year, not a horrible draft. I'd go C+.

Edited by CaptainHook
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Hook, I was, and still am critical of the Raiders pick of Janikowski. I understand them jumping, but they should have traded down, no one else was going to take him in the first that year. In fact, that was my only problem with that pick. They could have picked up a second and maybe a third if they had traded down, and taken Janikowski in the second. Basically, that is what the Jets did..... they gave up thier late 1st round pick for Jolley and a middle second, and then took a kicker with the new pick. Big difference between a #17 kicker and getting two starters, one of which is a kicker. I remember you being surprised in the chat that I wan't po'd with that pick, but in fact, when the Jets were on the clock, I called it in the chat. I said they would take Nugent, and if the Jets had not kept saying that Brien was thier guy, Minny would have traded up to get him. Nice smoke screen. It worked.

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I don't think that it is that bad of a pick. Usually when a kicker goes early the team really feels that they were a few kicks away from a heck of a better season, like the Raiders taking Seb Jan. I think the writing was on the wall for Brien when he was put up for sale by Jets fans on Ebay after the playoffs.

 

I wonder how the Jets fans will take to his missing a couple FG's here and there...like rookie Nate Kaeding of the Chargers vs. The Jets in the playoffs :D

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Honestly I do not see the Jets making the playoffs this year.

 

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I'm as big a Jets fan as there is, and I'm worried about them making the playoffs as well. Not because of anything they did wrong - I like the Jolley trade and the fact that they ended up getting Miller at #57 makes the Nugent pick look pretty good. I also like the signing of Derrick Blaylock as a solid and economical back-up to Curtis Martin. I like the Coles trade. They need to get John Abraham under contract, or get some good value for him.

 

My concern is more that the division looks tougher this year. I think the Pats may come back to the pack a bit, but the Bills looked awfully good the last two months of last season. I'm glad they are going with Losman, an unproven QB - I can only hope he goes through some growing pains. Otherwise, the Bills are just as good and possibly better than the Jets. I have to think that the Dolphins will be quite a bit better this year as well.

 

The 2005 season for the Jets comes down to Chad Pennington: If his shoulder is healed, and he stays healthy for the entire season, the Jets have a punchers chance to grab a wildcard spot or even win the division. If Chad's shoulder injury has permanently cost him the ability to throw deep, or if he gets hurt and misses any significant time next season, the Jets will have a top 10 draft pick next season.

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Pennington's shoulder is a concern for sure. If he goes down, we're in big trouble, but most contending teams would be too if thier starting QB went down. I'm worried about the D backfield, one of these rookies (read Miller) may have to start with Aaaron Glenn most likely going to Dallas now. But that is probably still an improvement over Donnie Abraham. I am not nearly as pessimistic as you are, Vet. Miami is improved, but still doesnt have a good QB and should be beatable. The Bills havent done much to improve a horrid O line...... that will make it tough on Losman. If he runs, the Jets front seven has the speed to catch him. I am curious to see how NE responds to losing both coordinators. They still havent replaced the offensive coordinator, and coach B may try to do that job as well, but he has surprised us before. Does Terrell bust, or does he do a "Dillon"? They have had some turnover in players too. I don't see the Pats as unbeatable this year.

 

I honestly think that with this schedule, which is pretty tough, Nugent will be the difference in at least two games. We have improved the special teams a lot, Miller is better , or should be better than Jordan and Moss as a returner. Jolley should be an improvement over Becht, as Coles should be over Moss. ORT might be a problem, we'll have to wait and see, but overall, the offense should be slightly improved, the special teams and field position game should be vastly improved (don't under rate the importance of field position) and the defense might have taken a small step backwards. Losing Ferguson didnt help, but he wasn't all that great either. This monster from Utah may be able to step in.... he is so freakin strong it's scary. Abraham will not be a hold out. Not for 8 Mil in his contract year. He'll play, but might miss camp.

 

Fortunately, the Jets dont have to go to the west coast this year, and that helps, SD has to travel to NY for the Jet game. Right now, I would say the Jets are a favorite for a wild card spot. I see at least 9 wins as a minimum, more likely 10 wins, with an optomist's upside for 12 if the world was perfect and the Jets get lucky.

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Fortunately, the Jets dont have to go to the west coast this year, and that helps, SD has to travel to NY for the Jet game. Right now, I would say the Jets are a favorite for a wild card spot. I see at least 9 wins as a minimum, more likely 10 wins, with an optomist's upside for 12 if the world was perfect and the Jets get lucky.

 

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I'd like to see that this year Rovers, just not so sure yet.

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