Deebo Posted May 25, 2005 Share Posted May 25, 2005 To me it appears that the 05 season could be the hardest as far as ranking the RB's because almost all of them have something that is effecting thier value. LT - Clear cut #1 Alexader - Contract issue Edge - Disgruntled employee Willis - unproven qb, weaker OL, will probably face 8 in the box all the time. Deuce - I want to think he could be #2 over all Holmes - Injury concerns Portis - Should do a little better this year Jamal - How much will prison life effect him Seems like almost every back has some baggage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted May 25, 2005 Share Posted May 25, 2005 No, the writing style does not indicate you were referencing Foster. I'm not an English major, but an extra comma or whom you are referencing to in your statement would have made things "read more clearly". 821856[/snapback] ahah another dallas fan jockey.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted May 25, 2005 Share Posted May 25, 2005 To me it appears that the 05 season could be the hardest as far as ranking the RB's because almost all of them have something that is effecting thier value. LT - Clear cut #1 Alexader - Contract issue Edge - Disgruntled employee Willis - unproven qb, weaker OL, will probably face 8 in the box all the time. Deuce - I want to think he could be #2 over all Holmes - Injury concerns Portis - Should do a little better this year Jamal - How much will prison life effect him Seems like almost every back has some baggage. 822491[/snapback] I expect a completely new face to emerge as a top back, much like Holmes did in 2002... 2006 just has it written all over it...we will see a new #1 mark my words Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted May 25, 2005 Share Posted May 25, 2005 I'm not sold on McGahee either. Last year, for all his success, he only averaged an EVEN 4.0 yards per carry -- and he wouldn't even have done that if it weren't for the Week 16 game, against San Francisco, when he averaged 6.8. So, on an offense that was ON FIRE, his YPC was average at best. Remember: he wasn't facing 8 in the box during that run -- the passing game was getting a lot of attention. Now, this year, the O-line has gone from bad to worse AND he'll be the focal point of every defense he faces. There's absolutely no way the offense can repeat the performance of the last part of 2004, so expect far fewer TDs. As far as yardage, look at his rushing schedule last year -- extremely weak. Then consider the O-line this year. Then consider defenses stacking the box. Then consider Willis's frustration. Then, if you're in one of my leagues, definitely take him #3 overall. 822430[/snapback] Maybe he helped make the passing game click?... I'm thinking since Henry got hurt, you started seeing players like Evans come out and start making plays once there was more 8 in the box Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deebo Posted May 25, 2005 Share Posted May 25, 2005 I expect a completely new face to emerge as a top back, much like Holmes did in 2002... 2006 just has it written all over it...we will see a new #1 mark my words 822510[/snapback] I would have to agree with you Avernus, and I wouldn't be suprised it it were more than one back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rovers Posted May 25, 2005 Share Posted May 25, 2005 Avernus, why don't you just come out and say it? C'mon, you know ya wanna. We know ya wanna. This year's next surprise number one back..... ok, I'll say it for you since you're so shy. Avernus is sure it's.... Kevin Jones! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broncosn05 Posted May 25, 2005 Share Posted May 25, 2005 Holmes - Injury concerns 822491[/snapback] and Willis isn't?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broncosn05 Posted May 25, 2005 Share Posted May 25, 2005 Maybe he helped make the passing game click?... I'm thinking since Henry got hurt, you started seeing players like Evans come out and start making plays once there was more 8 in the box 822513[/snapback] I also concide Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Irish Doggy Posted May 25, 2005 Share Posted May 25, 2005 Careful using tunnel vision on evaluating talent, 13 TD's in 11 games is hard to ignore. 822475[/snapback] 12 of those 13 TDs came in games vs. some of the worst rush D in the league last year. That isn't easy to ignore either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted May 26, 2005 Share Posted May 26, 2005 Avernus, why don't you just come out and say it? C'mon, you know ya wanna. We know ya wanna. This year's next surprise number one back..... ok, I'll say it for you since you're so shy. Avernus is sure it's.... Kevin Jones! 822654[/snapback] I wouldn't be shocked if it was him, I don't think it would be him...but if he came out and had a great season, it would be due to the fact that A QB finally flourished with that amazing WR core... I'm not sure if you were taking friendly jabs at my prediction last year, of T Jones being a top 10 back...but I doub't you'd mix the 2 up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rovers Posted May 26, 2005 Share Posted May 26, 2005 I wouldn't be shocked if it was him, I don't think it would be him...but if he came out and had a great season, it would be due to the fact that A QB finally flourished with that amazing WR core... I'm not sure if you were taking friendly jabs at my prediction last year, of T Jones being a top 10 back...but I doub't you'd mix the 2 up 822724[/snapback] Naw, this time I was pokin fun at yer homerism! Nuthin wrong with optomism! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vet Posted May 26, 2005 Share Posted May 26, 2005 and Willis isn't?? 822668[/snapback] McGahee is 10 years younger than Holmes, and I think last year McGahee proved that he is over his injury. Injury problems increase exponentially with age. In my opinion, McGahee is worthy of a top 10 FFRB spot. My "main" league is a dynasty leage, so perhaps I look at it from a longer-term perspective - but even in a re-draft league I think I'd take McGahee over a few of the other backs that have been thrown into the top-10 mix. As someone else said above, I think this years leading FFRB could very well end up being someone who wasn't even in the top 10 last year. Right now, I think LT has to be the #1 pick - but based on last year's results, I would put McGahee in the same category as people like McAllister, Dillon, Portis, and James. Clearly top 10. My non-consensus pick for top FFRB of 2005 is Julius Jones. I also think Ronnie Brown will make an immediate and meaningful impact in the NFL and in FF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted May 26, 2005 Share Posted May 26, 2005 Naw, this time I was pokin fun at yer homerism! Nuthin wrong with optomism! 822729[/snapback] I'm an Eagles fan though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted May 26, 2005 Share Posted May 26, 2005 McGahee is 10 years younger than Holmes, and I think last year McGahee proved that he is over his injury. Injury problems increase exponentially with age. In my opinion, McGahee is worthy of a top 10 FFRB spot. My "main" league is a dynasty leage, so perhaps I look at it from a longer-term perspective - but even in a re-draft league I think I'd take McGahee over a few of the other backs that have been thrown into the top-10 mix. As someone else said above, I think this years leading FFRB could very well end up being someone who wasn't even in the top 10 last year. Right now, I think LT has to be the #1 pick - but based on last year's results, I would put McGahee in the same category as people like McAllister, Dillon, Portis, and James. Clearly top 10. My non-consensus pick for top FFRB of 2005 is Julius Jones. I also think Ronnie Brown will make an immediate and meaningful impact in the NFL and in FF. 822774[/snapback] I just don't like the fact Willis has had 2 ACL injuries already....but I do agree he's easily top 10 material...I had him top 5, before I recognized the OL changes... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BS Miscreant Posted May 26, 2005 Share Posted May 26, 2005 12 of those 13 TDs came in games vs. some of the worst rush D in the league last year. That isn't easy to ignore either. 822673[/snapback] I'm more or less on your side as far questioning the possibly premature stature that McGahee has risen to but to call into question how a guy got 12 TDs is a bit much. Come on now, 12 TDs. How many RBs did that in a full schedule last year? By the way, those bad rush Ds you mentioned... McGahee scored more TDs against everyone of them than they averaged giving up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrick35 Posted May 26, 2005 Share Posted May 26, 2005 12 of those 13 TDs came in games vs. some of the worst rush D in the league last year. That isn't easy to ignore either. 822673[/snapback] Here are the rankings in "Rushing TD's allowed" that McGahee scored against: Pittsburgh - 1st - he scored 2 NY Jets - 4th - he scored 1 Arizona - 12th - he scored 2 Seattle - 22nd - he scored 4 Cleveland - 24th - he scored 2 San Fran - last - he scored 2 It seems to me that he was able to score against Top ranked, middle ranked and lower ranked defenses. It never ceases to amaze me how the same stat is sometimes used to elevate a players status while at the same time it is discounted when evaluating other players. Last year I spent the entire season listening to people in these forums whine about Edgerinn James not getting enough TD's and yet when McGahee shows a nose for the endzone you discount his TD's as coming against weak teams. The reason I mentioned his TD's is because the guy I was replying to was minimizing his 4 yds per carry. 4 yds per carry has long been the benchmark of excellence in NFL RB's. They have always liked the guy that can average 4 yds a carry yet this guy was saying it wasn't good enough. Yet LT2 averaged only 3.9 yds per carry last year and he is the consensus #1 pick this year. Why is that? Oh yeah receiving yards and TD's. Well here's a shocker for you. 2004 LT2 had 339 rushes for 1335 yds 17 TDs and 53 rec. for 441 yds and 1 TD LT2 touched the ball a total of 392 times for 4.5 yds/touch and scored 18 TD's He started 15 Games for a 12-4 team 2004 WM had 284 rushes for 1128 yds 13 TDs and 22 rec. for 169 yds 0 TDs WM touched the ball a total of 306 times for 4.2 yds/touch and scored 13 TD's He only started 11 games for an 9-7 team I would argue that had McGahee started 15 games his numbers would have matched and/or surpassed LT2's last year. I can only hope more people are discounting him the way you are and the way the guy who didn't like his 4 yds/carry average is. Because this kid is a Top 5 FFRB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted May 26, 2005 Share Posted May 26, 2005 I recall McGahee scoring just about every week he started...and he wasn't even at 100% at any point last year... REMEMBER THAT?...alot of people were downplaying him because of the fact he could re-injure himself... I still don't like the fact that he's had 2 ACL injuries before even joining the NFL... but if he's sitting there in the 2nd round and It's my pick, even if I get the last pick in the 1st, I'm taking him... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rovers Posted May 26, 2005 Share Posted May 26, 2005 I'm an Eagles fan though... 822893[/snapback] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss Cheezhead Posted May 26, 2005 Share Posted May 26, 2005 The reason I mentioned his TD's is because the guy I was replying to was minimizing his 4 yds per carry. 4 yds per carry has long been the benchmark of excellence in NFL RB's. They have always liked the guy that can average 4 yds a carry yet this guy was saying it wasn't good enough. Yet LT2 averaged only 3.9 yds per carry last year and he is the consensus #1 pick this year. Why is that? Oh yeah receiving yards and TD's. Well here's a shocker for you. I would argue that had McGahee started 15 games his numbers would have matched and/or surpassed LT2's last year. 823189[/snapback] Listen, bro -- he's not LaDainian Tomlinson. LT2 could end up being the best all-around NFL RB of all time, so let's let McGahee play another season or two before declaring him in Tomlinson's class. The reason Tomlinson only averaged 3.9 yards per carry last year WAS BECAUSE HE WAS HURT ALL SEASON LONG. Ask any Chargers fan the difference between how LT ran before and after his groin injury. Yards per carry IS a relevant statistic when evaluating RBs, especially in the case of McGahee, where there's not much to analyze. As people like you are proving, McGahee looks GREAT...on the surface. People see his gaudy numbers and figure him to duplicate them. Well, to me, his lame YPC is a red flag. No, I don't think McGahee was the main reason the offense caught fire -- that would be Lee Evans. From Weeks 5 through 15, McGahee had ONE game where he averaged over 4.0 YPC. That's not going to scare any defenses. You're not going to convince me he was running against 8 in the box very often. With that in mind, you're going to try to hang your hat on the crazy TD-to-game ratio. Well, that's just dumb. Given McGahee's struggles to gain yardarge consistently, it's pretty clear the abundance of Buffalo's scoring chances were thanks to the suddenly potent passing attack. When the ball is moving through the air with ease, OF COURSE the RB is going to reap some touchdown benefits. His situation is nothing like Tomlinson's. In LT's 2nd and 3rd years, he was the ONLY thing worth stopping on the San Diego offense. Defenses keyed on him throughout entire seasons. Nevertheless, he STILL managed to exceed 4.0 YPC -- by a long shot. Most people realize that he was hurt all last year. Apparently, you didn't. Either way, McGahee is not in the same league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted May 26, 2005 Share Posted May 26, 2005 (edited) 823802[/snapback] darnu rovers Edited May 26, 2005 by Avernus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrick35 Posted May 26, 2005 Share Posted May 26, 2005 Listen, bro -- he's not LaDainian Tomlinson. LT2 could end up being the best all-around NFL RB of all time, so let's let McGahee play another season or two before declaring him in Tomlinson's class. The reason Tomlinson only averaged 3.9 yards per carry last year WAS BECAUSE HE WAS HURT ALL SEASON LONG. Ask any Chargers fan the difference between how LT ran before and after his groin injury. Yards per carry IS a relevant statistic when evaluating RBs, especially in the case of McGahee, where there's not much to analyze. As people like you are proving, McGahee looks GREAT...on the surface. People see his gaudy numbers and figure him to duplicate them. Well, to me, his lame YPC is a red flag. No, I don't think McGahee was the main reason the offense caught fire -- that would be Lee Evans. From Weeks 5 through 15, McGahee had ONE game where he averaged over 4.0 YPC. That's not going to scare any defenses. You're not going to convince me he was running against 8 in the box very often. With that in mind, you're going to try to hang your hat on the crazy TD-to-game ratio. Well, that's just dumb. Given McGahee's struggles to gain yardarge consistently, it's pretty clear the abundance of Buffalo's scoring chances were thanks to the suddenly potent passing attack. When the ball is moving through the air with ease, OF COURSE the RB is going to reap some touchdown benefits. His situation is nothing like Tomlinson's. In LT's 2nd and 3rd years, he was the ONLY thing worth stopping on the San Diego offense. Defenses keyed on him throughout entire seasons. Nevertheless, he STILL managed to exceed 4.0 YPC -- by a long shot. Most people realize that he was hurt all last year. Apparently, you didn't. Either way, McGahee is not in the same league. 823908[/snapback] Umm ,ok a few points to address here: 1st and foremost, I'm not your Bro'. 2nd - I never said that McGahee was in the same class as LT2. I was simply pointing out that "last years stats" were very similar between the two and that if McGahee had started 15 games his might have been better than LT2's, LAST YEAR. 3rd - I never said that ypc was not a relevant stat, I simply disagreed that 4.0 was a bad average. I think averaging 4.0 ypc is very good. An opinion that is backed up by the fact that last year of the 24 backs that carried the ball over 200 times only 13 of them were able to average as many as 4.0 ypc or more and only 10 of those averaged more than 4.3 ypc. So I agree that ypc is a very relevant stat. I simply disagree with whoever it was I replied to that said 4.0 ypc was bad. 4th - How can using the TD's/game stat be a crazy idea. All ff leagues I have ever heard of score points for TD's. Some leagues score points for TD's only. Considering TD's per game is essential in evaluating ff players. 5th - Isn't it funny that you give all the credit for McGahee's success last year to the explosion of the passing game and yet you give no credit to McGahees presence in the backfield as a possible reason that the passing game exploded. You do realize that the ENTIRE Offense picked up when McGahee became the full time starter don't you. He is a much bigger breakaway threat than Henry was and defenses had to respect that and that helped to open up the passing game as well. Then the emergence of the passing game allowed them to run as well as they did. Like they say, you have to be able to run to throw and you have to be able to throw to run. 6th - I never compared McGahee's situation to LT2's. I merely compared their STATS from last year in an effort to show that you should not discount one stat or the other when evaluating talent. And to show that McGahee has the potential to be great, like LT2. So relax, LT2 is still a stud and I agree with his status as an elite back. I was simply voincing my opiniion of McGahee and offering points of interest and FACTS to back up that opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Irish Doggy Posted May 27, 2005 Share Posted May 27, 2005 (edited) Here are the rankings in "Rushing TD's allowed" that McGahee scored against:Pittsburgh - 1st - he scored 2 NY Jets - 4th - he scored 1 Arizona - 12th - he scored 2 Seattle - 22nd - he scored 4 Cleveland - 24th - he scored 2 San Fran - last - he scored 2 It seems to me that he was able to score against Top ranked, middle ranked and lower ranked defenses. It never ceases to amaze me how the same stat is sometimes used to elevate a players status while at the same time it is discounted when evaluating other players. 823189[/snapback] Alas your analysis is flawed and you abviously missed my first page post. If only he had scored big against that top ranked talent you mention. He scored 1 vs the Jets and that's it. #1 He played vs. 2nd and 3rd string Steeler scrubs in game 16. Remember the 15-1 Pittsburgh Steelers with nothing to play for in week 17? #2 Arizona gave up mad yardage last year, I wouldn't label them as a hard nosed rush D. Also, let's not misrepresnt anything here - they were tied for 12th in a group of 4 that all gave up 12TDs. #3 So, with 1 and 2 in mind, he scored at least 10 of his 13 TDs against below-average talent however you want to measure it. That is very nice for last year there is no doubt, but racking up the points vs. that crew does not label you as an elite back. #4 If he had scored vs. New England or Baltimore and/or had some nice yardage, I'd be more impressed. But he didn't do either. #5 Their schedule this year is not as friendly as 2004. Too bad he doesn't play the NFC West again. But go ahead, please, lable him as an elite back. I'd like to see him prove it with a first year QB before I take him in round 1. Edited May 27, 2005 by The Irish Doggy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted May 27, 2005 Share Posted May 27, 2005 Alas your analysis is flawed and you abviously missed my first page post. If only he had scored big against that top ranked talent you mention. He scored 1 vs the Jets and that's it. #1 He played vs. 2nd and 3rd string Steeler scrubs in game 16. Remember the 15-1 Pittsburgh Steelers with nothing to play for in week 17? #2 Arizona gave up mad yardage last year, I wouldn't label them as a hard nosed rush D. Also, let's not misrepresnt anything here - they were tied for 12th in a group of 4 that all gave up 12TDs. #3 So, with 1 and 2 in mind, he scored at least 10 of his 13 TDs against below-average talent however you want to measure it. That is very nice for last year there is no doubt, but racking up the points vs. that crew does not label you as an elite back. #4 If he had scored vs. New England or Baltimore and/or had some nice yardage, I'd be more impressed. But he didn't do either. #5 Their schedule this year is not as friendly as 2004. Too bad he doesn't play the NFC West again. But go ahead, please, lable him as an elite back. I'd like to see him prove it with a first year QB before I take him in round 1. 824866[/snapback] Plus the O line which is supposed to be not as good as last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BS Miscreant Posted May 28, 2005 Share Posted May 28, 2005 For those of you who can't seem to get over the "but he scored TDs against bad defenses" argument and who obviously did not read this info when it was posted originally, here it is again editted to add the actual stats. I'm more or less on your side as far questioning the possibly premature stature that McGahee has risen to but to call into question how a guy got 12 TDs is a bit much. Come on now, 12 TDs. How many RBs did that in a full schedule last year? By the way, those bad rush Ds you mentioned... McGahee scored more TDs against everyone of them than they averaged giving up. TDs D gives up per game TDs MaGahee Scored AZ - .8 2 NYJ - .4 1 SEA - .9 4 CLE - 1.3 2 SF - 1.4 2 822945[/snapback] Oh, and by the way, the below info is just plain wrong. MaGahee averaged over 4.0 ypc in four games over that stretch. From Weeks 5 through 15, McGahee had ONE game where he averaged over 4.0 YPC. 823908[/snapback] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azhir Posted May 28, 2005 Share Posted May 28, 2005 McGahee Top 5 guaranteed at the end of year. Mark my Words. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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