Porter v. Burleson

[Pancake]

Hey Big Score. Very nice post.

[Meat Face]

Porter could do what Cris Carter did.

[DMD]

  DMD's assertion that Porter put up the numbers he did last year, as Oakland's #1 WR, is not quite accurate.

 

 

In the nine games that both Curry and Porter played with Collins as QB, Porter had more passes in 5 of the 9. Curry had the most in 3 of 9. In week 4 they both had 5. That sounds not unusual for a #1 and #2 WR tandem on a terrible team. In one of the 3 that Curry had more passes thrown to him, he still ended up with the same number of catches (week 12 vs DEN - 6 catches). What more defines a #1 WR than getting the most passes thrown to him?

 

Here are the targets for those weeks

4	Porter, J	54	Curry, R	5 5	Curry, R	135	Porter, J	6 6	Porter, J	66	Curry, R	3 7	Porter, J	127	Curry, R	6 8	Porter, J	108	Curry, R	2 9	Porter, J	69	Curry, R	4 11	Porter, J	1111	Curry, R	7 12	Curry, R	912	Porter, J	8 13	Curry, R	1113	Porter, J	8

 

 

Lastly, Porter was moved from the Slot to the Flanker position, for the first time in his NFL career. Considering that Porter was an extremely raw WR coming into the NFL from College, I highly doubt that he had much experience with the Flanker position, prior to last season.

 

 

 

Porter may have been "raw" coming out of college, but he was in his FIFTH season in the NFL during 2004. How long does seasoning actually take? College only last for four years at most and he already had college plus four years in the NFL. I will agree there can be some adjustments moving to a new position, but I would seriously doubt he had only practiced or played in the slot during college or his four previous seasons in the NFL.

 

sidenote - Burleson was only in his second season in 2004. He was coming off his rookie year last season.

 

I see the Moss / Porter combo as possibly being similar to the Moss / Carter combo. Don't forget, the Moss / Carter combo didn't have Dante throwing to them initially, yet they were still able to simultaneously, put up individual 1,000+ yard seasons. 

 

And before you start with the Porter ain't no Carter cries, I know that. My point was to show that even though Dante wasn't throwing the ball, Moss + another good WR across from him, can each have 1,000+ yard seasons.

 

 

While Randy Moss did add another 1000 yard WR to the mix in MIN during the previous millenia, Carter had already turned in five straight seasons over 1000 before Moss came to add on to what Carter already was. Carter was the immaculate possession receiver (AKA "all he does is catch TDs"). He was never a long ball guy. Porter had a 15.6 YPC last year as the #1 (or not depending on who you ask) WR in OAK and both as a slot guy and even as a flanker had long passes to boost his totals. Mixing a possession receiver like Carter with a deep ball/everything receiver like Moss was obviously a great move.

 

I am not saying that Porter is a bad player by any means. But I think it is a rather optimistic move to put him anywhere near the same company as Cris Carter. Carter was a much different sort of receiver than Porter was, aside from talent.

 

I would think that the last four seasons would be much more indicative of what would happen rather than the Vikings with two of the best WRs in the game in a passing offense back from 1998 - 2000.

 

The #2 to Moss

 

2004 - Burleson 1006/9 because he was #1 for 5 games

2003 - Burleson 455/2 and Campbell was really #2 with 522/4

2002 - Dwayne Bates 689/4

2001 - Cris Carter 871/4

 

And those in a passing offense that featured Culpepper. Maybe Porter can shoot for Carter of 2001...

 

The next thing to look at is Norv Turner offenses.

 

Has Norv, as a Head Coach, ever had an offense produce a pair of 1,000+ yard WR's, in the same season?

The answer is yes!

Norv's Washington Redskin's offense had both Michael Westbrook and Albert Connell each notch 1,000+ yards one year....with Brad Johnson as their QB.

 

Read that again.

Michael  "sucker punch" Westbrook & Albert "hang onto your wallet" Connell!!!

 

I think Moss & Porter are ever so slightly more talented, than those two mutts.

Anyway, when trying to project for Porter, take the above into consideration.

 

 

I absolutely commend your ability to dig backwards until something finally satisfies your point.

 

1999 - Connell 1132/7 and Westbrook 1191/9

 

How about the previous year?

 

1998 - Westbrook 736/6 and Shepherd 712/8

 

Or the following year

 

2000 - Connell 762/3 and Thrash 653/2

 

How about the second year of Turner in WAS (since he is 2nd year in OAK)

 

1995 - Ellard 1005/5 and Westbrook 522/1

 

Better yet, how about all the Cowboy years that were directly under Turner as OC and were noted to be fantasy death sentences for WRs. Irvin hardly ever scored and there was no big fantasy #2. Remeber when no one wanted any WR from Dallas in spite of them winning superbowls?

 

You want Turner's history in Miami being the OC?

 

Oh yes, there was never a 1000 yard WR in Miami in his two seasons there. He called the plays.

 

While perhaps 1999 had two 1000 yard receivers for Turner, you cannot point at any of his other 20 years coaching in the NFL and find it again. I can appreciate wanting to see something, but 5% of a coach's history should not be used for anything more than an extreme abberation that should not be counted on.

 

Kerry Collins has played for 11 years. He is on his fourth team. He has never thrown for more than 21 scores ever. Only twice ever did he top 20. in his best season ever (2000) his best two WRs were Toomer (1094/7) and Hilliard (787/8).

 

I could go on with more but I have come to the conclusion that there is a CULT OF PORTER this season and that anything other than he turning in 1000+/9 Tds just does not compute. Even despite everything pointing that it is unlikely at best. I wish just one of you would break it down for me so maybe I could see what I am not seeing. Projections for Collins and Moss, Porter, Curry, et al.

 

Man. I wish some NFL player would do something stupid to talk about. I have to stop returning to this thread.

[BS Miscreant]

In the nine games that both Curry and Porter played with Collins as QB, Porter had more passes in 5 of the 9. Curry had the most in 3 of 9.  In week 4 they both had 5. That sounds not unusual for a #1 and #2 WR tandem on a terrible team. In one of the 3 that Curry had more passes thrown to him, he still ended up with the same number of catches (week 12 vs DEN - 6 catches). What more defines a #1 WR than getting the most passes thrown to him?

 

Here are the targets for those weeks

4	Porter, J	54	Curry, R	5 5	Curry, R	135	Porter, J	6 6	Porter, J	66	Curry, R	3 7	Porter, J	127	Curry, R	6 8	Porter, J	108	Curry, R	2 9	Porter, J	69	Curry, R	4 11	Porter, J	1111	Curry, R	7 12	Curry, R	912	Porter, J	8 13	Curry, R	1113	Porter, J	8

 

Porter may have been "raw" coming out of college, but he was in his FIFTH season in the NFL during 2004. How long does seasoning actually take? College only last for four years at most and he already had college plus four years in the NFL. I will agree there can be some adjustments moving to a new position, but I would seriously doubt he had only practiced or played in the slot during college or his four previous seasons in the NFL.

 

sidenote - Burleson was only in his second season in 2004. He was coming off his rookie year last season.

While Randy Moss did add another 1000 yard WR to the mix in MIN during the previous millenia, Carter had already turned in five straight seasons over 1000 before Moss came to add on to what Carter already was.  Carter was the immaculate possession receiver (AKA "all he does is catch TDs"). He was never a long ball guy. Porter had a 15.6 YPC last year as the #1 (or not depending on who you ask) WR in OAK and both as a slot guy and even as a flanker had long passes to boost his totals. Mixing a possession receiver like Carter with a deep ball/everything receiver like Moss was obviously a great move.

 

I am not saying that Porter is a bad player by any means. But I think it is a rather optimistic move to put him anywhere near the same company as Cris Carter.  Carter was a much different sort of receiver than Porter was, aside from talent.

 

I would think that the last four seasons would be much more indicative of what would happen rather than the Vikings with two of the best WRs in the game in a passing offense back from 1998 - 2000.

 

The #2 to Moss

 

2004 - Burleson 1006/9 because he was #1 for 5 games

2003 - Burleson 455/2 and Campbell was really #2 with 522/4

2002 - Dwayne Bates 689/4

2001 - Cris Carter 871/4

 

And those in a passing offense that featured Culpepper. Maybe Porter can shoot for Carter of 2001...

I absolutely commend your ability to dig backwards until something finally satisfies your point.

 

1999 - Connell 1132/7 and Westbrook 1191/9

 

How about the previous year?

 

1998 - Westbrook 736/6 and Shepherd 712/8

 

Or the following year

 

2000 - Connell 762/3 and Thrash 653/2

 

How about the second year of Turner in WAS (since he is 2nd year in OAK)

 

1995 - Ellard 1005/5 and Westbrook 522/1

 

Better yet, how about all the Cowboy years that were directly under Turner as OC and were noted to be fantasy death sentences for WRs. Irvin hardly ever scored and there was no big fantasy #2. Remeber when no one wanted any WR from Dallas in spite of them winning superbowls?

 

You want Turner's history in Miami being the OC?

 

Oh yes, there was never a 1000 yard WR in Miami in his two seasons there. He called the plays.

 

While perhaps 1999 had two 1000 yard receivers for Turner, you cannot point at any of his other 20 years coaching in the NFL and find it again. I can appreciate wanting to see something, but 5% of a coach's history should not be used for anything more than an extreme abberation that should not be counted on.

 

Kerry Collins has played for 11 years.  He is on his fourth team. He has never thrown for more than 21 scores ever. Only twice ever did he top 20. in his best season ever (2000) his best two WRs were Toomer (1094/7) and Hilliard (787/8).

 

I could go on with more but I have come to the conclusion that there is a CULT OF PORTER this season and that anything other than he turning in 1000+/9 Tds just does not compute. Even despite everything pointing that it is unlikely at best. I wish just one of you would break it down for me so maybe I could see what I am not seeing. Projections for Collins and Moss, Porter, Curry, et al.

 

Man. I wish some NFL player would do something stupid to talk about. I have to stop returning to this thread.

 

840481[/snapback]

 

 

 

D, I had to quote your post on this one because I've always wanted a post this long but never had the time or energy to type it myself. I don't want this to be a complete piggy back job though so, right on man. I couldn't agree more.

[Puddy]

I don't normally swing on other folks sacs, but the info that DMD has provided for a comparison between two ordinary receivers has me highly impressed .

 

 

Hopefully this isn't taking away from the indepth analysis that's going to grace the home page soon

[muck]

I've not seen DMD get worked up like this in quite some time!

 

...heh heh heh...

 

Next thing you know, he's going to start ranting about how Kevan Barlow will most assuredly outperform Tatum Bell ... or, maybe ... how Delhomme will obviously finish with more FF points than Aaron Brooks.

[Pancake]

I stand corrected. Nice info. DMD.

But I still think Porter will outperform Burelson. Based on what you ask? Pure Homerism!

[TimC]

Shhh, don't tell anyone, but I have Burleson pre-selected before Porter in our mock draft.

 

Burleson will make a fine 2nd receiver on fantasy teams.

[Clubfoothead]

Shhh, don't tell anyone, but I have Burleson pre-selected before Porter in our mock draft. 

 

Burleson will make a fine 2nd receiver on fantasy teams.

 

841297[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

 

So will Porter you'll just be able to wait one more round before drafting him.

[DMD]

(note to self - ban Clubfoothead for starting this mess)

[Clubfoothead]

(note to self - ban Clubfoothead for starting this mess)

 

841311[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

I just asked the question.

 

Yer reasoning is sound, master.

[alexgaddis]

Only if we can ban DMD's avatar...

 

Awful movie...

[Jimmy Neutron]

Only if we can ban DMD's avatar...

 

Awful movie...

 

841494[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

No way - Nepolean Dynamite rocked!

[Pancake]

(note to self - ban Clubfoothead for starting this mess)

 

841311[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Bump. Just to torture DMD.

[DMD]

Bump.  Just to torture DMD. 

 

842510[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

I will admit my first thought was NOW WHAT?!?!?!?!

[Pancake]

Did anybody take into account that the Raiders signed Porter to a new contract this offseason (5 year $21MM with $7MM guaranteed)....and Norv Turner stated that "Porter has his best years ahead of him".

 

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?...SPGE0BFKQT1.DTL

Edited June 15, 2005 by Pancake

[NAUgrad]

Might as well continue. DMD what impact do you think the "new offense" in Minny will have on CPep? Do you think they'll go to a more ground it out kind of attack, or do you see the same sort of air it out approach? Just for fun, project/guess what you think Burleson and Porter will do yds/td's.

[darin3]

While I voted for Burleson here, I took Porter in a mock draft and would feel comfortable picking him as a #2 (or #3, as with this mock) WR. Collins is unreliable, but heck, he's gonna be throwing alot. If your league penalizes for incompletions and/or interceptions, perhaps you throw him down a few notches, but if it's a postive-point league only, then why not? He'll have Porter, who will benefit from Moss double teams, and Moss, who will shrug off double teams like they're standing still.

[Pancake]

You (DMD) can slow this thread down but you can't stop it!......unless you break out the thread gun, of course......

[Big Score 1]

In the nine games that both Curry and Porter played with Collins as QB, Porter had more passes in 5 of the 9. Curry had the most in 3 of 9.  In week 4 they both had 5. That sounds not unusual for a #1 and #2 WR tandem

Here are the targets for those weeks

4	Porter, J	54	Curry, R	5 5	Curry, R	135	Porter, J	6 6	Porter, J	66	Curry, R	3 7	Porter, J	127	Curry, R	6 8	Porter, J	108	Curry, R	2 9	Porter, J	69	Curry, R	4 11	Porter, J	1111	Curry, R	7 12	Curry, R	912	Porter, J	8 13	Curry, R	1113	Porter, J	8

 

 

840481[/snapback]

 

 

 

The above data that DMD provided on the split in targets for Oakland's #1 & #2 WR's, bodes well for Porter as Oakland's #2 WR this up-coming year.

 

IF above target distribution for Oakland's #1 & #2 WR's holds true, it points to Porter seeing roughly 45% of the targets. A very good ratio for a #2 WR.

Porter may have been "raw" coming out of college, but he was in his FIFTH season in the NFL during 2004. How long does seasoning actually take? College only last for four years at most and he already had college plus four years in the NFL. I will agree there can be some adjustments moving to a new position, but I would seriously doubt he had only practiced or played in the slot during college or his four previous seasons in the NFL.

840481[/snapback]

 

 

FWIW - Porter only Lettered for three years in College.

 

A huge reason Porter was as raw as the steak at your local Grocery store coming into the NFL, is because of how he was used at West Virginia.

 

Sophomore

Appeared in every game, seeing action at free safety and flanker as a sophomore.

 

Junior

Recorded 28 tackles As a junior, All-Big East Conference selection after starting every game at free safety ... In on 63 tackles with five interceptions and five passes defensed ... Gained 129 yards on eight kickoff returns (16.1 avg) ... Recovered an onside kickoff, returning the ball 29 yards, deflected a pass and came up with 12 tackles against Ohio State ... Posted three straight six-tackle performances - against Rutgers, Miami of Florida and Temple.

 

Senior

Saw action as a free safety in the first five games, filled in as an emergency quarterback vs. Rutgers and then finished the second half of the season as a flanker.

 

So of the above three years in Porter's College career, he had about one, to maybe one and a half seasons worth of experience, at the Flanker position

 

As for the FIFTH season label for Porter in the NFL hmmmm......

 

In 2000, Porter's 1st year in the NFL, he only played in 12 games, starting none at the WR position and what little action he did see as a WR, it was in the slot. (Brown & Jett ahead of him)

 

2001 Porter garnered slightly more playing time, appearing in 15 games, but only ended up starting in one as a WR and that one start was again in the slot. (Brown & Rice ahead of him)

 

2002 is the year Porter began to really show his talent. He appeared in all 16 games that year, starting 14 while filling the the WR slot position and posting solid #'s - 51 recpts for 688 yds with a 13.5 avg and 9 Td's. (Brown & Rice ahead of him)

 

2003 Porter suffered a set back. Porter was initially diagnosed as having an abdominal strain, which as it turns out, was a mis-diagnosis by the Raiders medical staff. A second opinion revealed his injury to actually be a Sports Hernia which he ended up requiring surgery. He did appear in 10 games, but only started one and wasn't truly healthy in any. (Brown & Rice ahead of him)

 

2004 we know what he did. His first year in the NFL playing full-time at the WR flanker position, Porter rang up 64 recpts for 998 yds with a very nice 15.6 avg to go along with 9 TD's.

 

So while Porter was indeed going on his FIFTH season in the NFL last year, the reality of it is, he'd actually only had about TWO seasons of real NFL game experience as a WR prior to last year and both of those seasons were where seemingly his focus / dedication was to the WR slot position. Only last year did he have any real prolonged NFL work at the WR flanker position.

 

His College ball was only three season and featured a smörgåsbord of positions, with Safety being a position of focus, along with his WR duties.

 

Heck, even in High School Porter was schizo in his role with the Team.

"Blue Chip All-American selection, adding All-State honors while competing as a fullback, quarterback, receiver, defensive end, corner-back and free safety during his three-year career at Coolidge High."

I absolutely commend your ability to dig backwards until something finally satisfies your point.

 

1999 - Connell 1132/7 and Westbrook 1191/9

 

How about the previous year?

 

1998 - Westbrook 736/6 and Shepherd 712/8

 

Or the following year

 

2000 - Connell 762/3 and Thrash 653/2

 

How about the second year of Turner in WAS (since he is 2nd year in OAK)

 

1995 - Ellard 1005/5 and Westbrook 522/1

 

Better yet, how about all the Cowboy years that were directly under Turner as OC and were noted to be fantasy death sentences for WRs. Irvin hardly ever scored and there was no big fantasy #2. Remeber when no one wanted any WR from Dallas in spite of them winning superbowls?

 

You want Turner's history in Miami being the OC?

 

Oh yes, there was never a 1000 yard WR in Miami in his two seasons there. He called the plays.

 

While perhaps 1999 had two 1000 yard receivers for Turner, you cannot point at any of his other 20 years coaching in the NFL and find it again. I can appreciate wanting to see something, but 5% of a coach's history should not be used for anything more than an extreme abberation that should not be counted on.

840481[/snapback]

 

 

The above response was in regards to the following

Has Norv, as a Head Coach, ever had an offense produce a pair of 1,000+ yard WR's, in the same season?

840368[/snapback]

 

 

Notice I said Head Coach, not Offensive Coordinator.

 

There is a reason for making the distinction between what Norv has done as a Head Coach and what Norv has done as an Offensive Coordinator.

A Head Coach decides the Offensive direction his Team will take and constructs the Team accordingly. The Offensive Coordinator then devises game plans for the Team's Offense as the Head Coach has constructed it.

 

Jimmy Johnson did not put together one of the Leagues all time great Run Blocking Offensive Lines and have one of the NFL's all time great RB's, only to go with a pass happy offense. That would have been insane. If Norv had tried to go with an aerial game plan and ignored the Teams strengths that Jimmy Johnson had put in place, I'm fairly certain he would've been comitting job suicide.

 

Same thing in Miami. Wanny wanted his Team to be a clock control, grind it out offense combined with a great D. The pieces for that type of Offensive philosophy were assembled by Wanny and that is what Norv, as the Offensive Coordinator had to work with. Again, if Norv as the OC had tried to turn that unit, as Wanny had constructed it, into an aerial offense, I'm sure Wanny would've quickly replaced him. Wanny did not design the Miami O to be an aerial unit.

 

So, while I commend your ability to provide facts on Norv's numbers as an OC, it was not really relevant.

 

What is far more pertinent, is to examine what Norv has done when acting as the Head Coach of a Team. One that he has constructed by getting the type of personnel he wants and guiding the offensive direction the Team takes.

 

So, including last year, for the 7 years Norv has been a Head Coach, he's produced a pair of simultaneous 1,000 yd + Wr's once. Norv has never had as talented a pair of WR's as he now does. Throw Norv's acquisition of Lamont Jordan, who whilst being unproven as a Team's #1 RB, I think will command far more respect than Oakland's running game did last year, with the likes of the often injured Wheatley, talented but small Fargas, Pitt cast off Zeroue, 3rd down back Redmond & Crockett the hammer.

 

To finish, I don't see Oakland's D as being much improved this off-season. Yes they've added DE Derrick Burgess, LB Jay Foreman and drafted CB's Fabian Washington & Stanford Routt (both blazing fast....but Washington is kinda small), but the flip side of the coin is they've lost an experienced CB in Phillip Buchannon & a good LB in Napoleon Harris.

 

Stack Oakland's D against the high powered Offenses they play in their Division and I see lots of potential shoot outs.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like Burleson...a lot....as a WR.

 

I just temper my enthusiasm for Burleson with the knowledge of Minny's improvement to their D, along with Tice saying he wants a more balanced Offense this year. One that will stress the run game more, than in previous seasons.

 

I honestly think that when it's all said and done, there is a strong likelihood of Porter & Burleson putting up comparable numbers. Burleson should have better numbers than Porter.....but I don't think the gap will be by as much as some are projecting.

 

When you look at the ADP of these two players in various mocks, Porter represents the greater value...IMO.

(Every mock I've seen to date has Porter being drafted at the very least least one round after Burleson, but far more often than not, 2 or even 3 rounds after Burleson)

 

Take the above info into consideration if you like, or simply dismiss it. It doesn't really matter to me, one way or the other. It's all pure conjecture and speculation at this point anyway.

[Chavez]

Gotta get my shots in...more on Norv Turner's trends from a strikingly familiar thread...

 

 

The only Norv-coordinated/head coached team that tallied 2 1000 yd WRs was the 1999 Washington Redskins. That was also the only time an offense on a team he was head coach of finished in the top 10 in yards and scoring - the only other top 10 finish aside from that year was 8th in yds in '96.

 

Average finish in pass attempts of Norv's offenses as head coach was 12th; average finish in rushing attempts was 18th.

 

As co-ordinator in Dallas from 90-93, his offense finished 7-8 in pts-yds in 91, and 2-4 in both 92 and 93. In rushing attempts, they finished 22nd, 17th, 4th, and 6th; in pass attempts, they finished 14th, 14th, 12th, and 24th.

 

As coordinator and HC, his teams (90-93 Cowboys, 94-00 Redskins, 02-03 Dolphins, 04 Raiders) have featured 8 WRs who've cracked the 1000 yd mark, plus a couple near-misses (Chambers in '03 with 963 yds and Porter last year with 998), but only 4 players who tallied over 1300 yds (Irvin 91-93, Henry Ellard in 94). His 90 Cowboy, 97, 98, and 00 Redskin teams, both Dolphin years and last year were without 1000 yd WRs. And in 95 and 96, Ellard just barely squeaked over 1000 (1005 and 1014, respectively) yds despite averaging 18.7 ypc.

 

Most notable, though, is no Turner WR has EVER had more than 9 td catches in a season.

 

Slight caveat - in his bio, it says Turner "oversaw" the LA Rams passing game from 85-90. In this time, Henry Ellard had 3 1000 yd seasons (all 3 around 1300+ yds, and 10 tds in 88) from 88-90 and Flipper Anderson had 2 in 89 and 90.

 

Not sure how much credit to assign, though, since Ernie Zampese held the title of offensive co-ordinator at that time.

 

[WaterMan]

If Burleson is still returning kicks, then I'd take him over Porter.

[Chavez]

(note to self - ban Clubfoothead for starting this mess)

 

841311[/snapback]

 

 

 

C'mon DMD, since when do you shy away from any excuse to crunch FF #s in the offseason?

[Big Score 1]

Here's an interesting link to overall stats on Norv Turner teams, when he has been the Head Coach.

 

www.pro-football-reference.com

 

Worth noting (according to the stats from the above link) last year under Norv, Oakland ranked 4th in the league in pass attempts and 8th in the league in passing yardage. Rushing, Oakland ranked 32nd in attempts and not surprisingly, 32nd in rushing yards.

 

Obviously the above rankings had a lot to do with Oakland constantly playing from behind, but has that much really changed with Oakland's D?

 

We do know the O has changed with the additions of Moss & Jordan. Question is, do you think the addition of Moss means that Oakland's passing attempts will go down?

 

I do expect Oakland's rushing rank to rise, but I would not be at all surprised to see Oakland's passing rank remain the same, or at least relatively close to their 2004 ranking.

[Swampnuts]

Is this thread ever going to die? :