Jump to content
[[Template core/front/custom/_customHeader is throwing an error. This theme may be out of date. Run the support tool in the AdminCP to restore the default theme.]]

Can Peyton throw 50+ TD's this year?


CaptainHook
 Share

Recommended Posts

Any chance Peyton Manning would allow even a shred of complacency to slip in after fashioning the greatest season by a quarterback in NFL history vanished during an early-morning March film session with Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator Tom Moore and quarterbacks coach Jim Caldwell.

 

The tape, one of more than a dozen "cut-ups" designed to review Manning's 2004 season and lay the groundwork for '05, consisted not of his league-record 49 touchdowns, but of the missed opportunities.

 

"We counted 17 legitimate misses," Manning said, smiling sheepishly. "You say we threw a lot of touchdowns, but we should have thrown even more."

 

Sixty-six?

 

Well, at least more than 49.

 

Tight end Marcus Pollard dropped a no-doubt touchdown against Tennessee. Brandon Stokley muffed one against Oakland and, while running alone through the heart of Green Bay's secondary, saw a potential 72-yard touchdown ricochet off his facemask. In a loss at Kansas City, Manning passed for five touchdowns but could have had eight; three times in the first half he overthrew a wide-open Marvin Harrison.

 

"Let's be realistic," Moore said. "You're always going to leave some (touchdowns) on the field. But why can't we be better? We've got to be better."

 

That has been the explicit theme as Manning, Moore and Caldwell have met at 7:15 so many mornings during the offseason. Yes, 2004 was a fantasy football fan's wildest dream. The 49 touchdown passes. The 121.1 passer rating, another single-season NFL record. That eight-game stretch during which Manning passed for at least three touchdowns, including five consecutive games with at least four.

 

Manning conceded the Colts set the bar for passing excellence "pretty high" in 2004, and that exceeding it and satisfying a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately? public will be a major challenge.

 

"I'm getting that a little bit in airports," Manning said. "You know, 'How many you going to throw (in '05)?' You can tell in their tone of voice if you don't throw over 50, it's going to be (a disappointment)."

 

Better every year

 

Manning said he isn't obsessed by such external expectations. He is obsessed, as always, with taking his game to another level, which he has a history of doing.

 

Since enduring a difficult 2001 campaign -- 26 touchdowns, 23 interceptions, an 84.1 passer rating -- Manning has elevated his game each season, being named league Most Valuable Player in 2003 and '04. His touchdown output has bounced from 27 to 29 to 49; the interceptions have dipped from 19 in 2002 to 10 each of the past two seasons. His completion percentage has improved in each of his first seven seasons, from 56.7 as a rookie in 1998 to the club-record 67.6 last year.

 

"He didn't do very much wrong last year," said Caldwell, who's worked with Manning since 2002. "But he challenges himself to be even better."

 

That's the basis for the early-morning video sessions. The cut-ups run the gamut: touchdown passes, interceptions, sacks allowed, the missed touchdowns, throws to the left, throws to the right, plays out of the shotgun formation, play-action, first down, third down, specific routes.

 

One cut-up might reveal that on a certain pass pattern, Manning completed 15-of-20 passes for seven TDs. Moore's reaction?

 

"We didn't call that play enough."

 

Even though Manning has suffered only 20 interceptions the past two seasons, coach Tony Dungy said there's room for improvement there. Of last season's 10, six occurred in the red zone.

 

That's the reason the offensive brain trust makes certain to discuss what went wrong as well as what went right.

 

"I'm very cognizant of both," Manning said. "If you go in there and say, 'OK, what did we do wrong?' you come out and feel like you beat yourself up.

 

"At the same time, you say, 'Hey, these are things we're doing really well. Let's keep this.' "

 

Bucking history?

 

History indicates encores after huge quarterbacking seasons aren't easy. After establishing Manning's target number with 48 touchdowns in 1984, Miami's Dan Marino had 30 the next season. San Francisco's Steve Young set the NFL mark with a 112.8 passer rating in 1994, but he slipped to 92.3 in '95.

 

No quarterback has posted consecutive 40-touchdown seasons, but Moore isn't betting against Manning.

 

Fifty, or more?

 

"Why not?" Moore asked. "Nobody had 49 until last year."

 

Two reasons for optimism: Manning's banner year came despite him attempting a career-low 497 passes and playing the equivalent of 141/2 games. (He took only three snaps in the regular-season finale against Denver because it didn't affect playoff position, and he sat out the fourth quarter of two other games because the Colts were so far ahead.)

 

Plus, with the exception of Pollard, who relocated to Detroit in March, Manning's playmaking options return intact: wide receivers Harrison, Stokley and Reggie Wayne, running back Edgerrin James and tight end Dallas Clark.

 

Then there's the continuity of consultants: Caldwell, Moore and offensive line coach Howard Mudd. Moore and Mudd have been coaching cornerstones since Manning's arrival in 1998.

 

"Stability, experience and continuity are great factors," Moore said. "And Peyton's a great quarterback. Hands down, he's special.

 

"There's no reason we can't be more productive. We've still got a long ways to go. We're never satisfied."

 

Encore, encore

 

In 2005, Peyton Manning will try to improve upon the best season in NFL history by a quarterback. A year ago, he broke Dan Marino's NFL record with 49 touchdown passes and smashed Steve Young's league mark with a 121.1 rating. Here's a look at how those two followed up their record-breaking seasons:

 

Dan Marino Steve Young P. Manning

Season 1984 1985 1994 1995 2004

Games/starts 16/16 16/16 16/16 11/11 16/16

Team record 14-2 12-4 13-3 11-5 12-4

Completions 362 336 324 299 336

Attempts 564 567 461 447 497

Pct. 64.2 59.3 70.3 66.9 67.6

Yards 5,084 4,137 3,969 3,200 4,557

Touchdowns 48 30 35 20 49

Interceptions 17 21 10 11 10

Rating 108.9 84.1 112.8 92.3 121.1

 

 

 

link

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 57
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

The implied queestion is: how high in the first round should he be taken, especially if he can hit 50 by week 16?

 

835540[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

You can make a case for taking him at the 1.01 pick, regardless the size of the league--but in deeper leagues (my local is 15/16), it is a tough pick to make that high.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The implied queestion is: how high in the first round should he be taken, especially if he can hit 50 by week 16?

 

835540[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

In a keeper league, after Tomlinson and Alexander are off the board, Manning becomes a legit choice. But not before.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it is possible for sure. He reads defenses better than any QB I can ever remember watching. Eventhough it would be quite an accomplishment to throw 50+ this season I am sure that Manning (and the colts fans) would care less how many TD's he throws if they manage to get a ring.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In a keeper league, after Tomlinson and Alexander are off the board, Manning becomes a legit choice.  But not before.

 

835553[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

 

Yo, mama! Yer a smart dude! That is EXACTLY how I looked at it in the IDP mock (now a league) in the IDP forum. I was picking third. LT. SA. Gone. Now, if Holmes was younger and healthier..... but he isnt. I had to look at point differentials. I had a bunch of RB's in the next tier (if you like that label) . Of all the players still left, the highest upside at any position in terms of point differential was Manning. I took some heat for that pick, but I stand by it. Manning could throw 50. I expect less, but I dont think CPep or McNabb will be anywhere close. If I had to do it over again, I'd do the same thing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe he should quit spending so much time looking at missed opportunities from last year, and focus on missed opportuinties against the Patsies. There his stumbling block every year, and until he figures out how to move the football against them, then it doesn't matter how many TD's he throws for.

 

Oh, by the way, he won't throw for more than 50 this year. Not a chance. To many things have to be just right for that to happen. No injuries, changing the turf could slow his receivers down just a bit, etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Call me crazy, but shouldn't the Colts focus on advancing through the playoffs rather than how many TD's manning throws. Maybe they need to tweak their team philosophy just a tad and control the clock more so they're ready for those close games in January.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of course Peyton can throw for 50 this year. He had 49 last year. The one thing he won't do, is lead the Colts to a championship. Who has time for Superbowl rings when you spend all your heart and energy trying to break insignificant records. Then when its all said and done. we can blame it on the weather and the Colts "D"!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of course Peyton can throw for 50 this year. He had 49 last year. The one thing he won't do, is lead the Colts to a championship. Who has time for Superbowl rings when you spend all your heart and energy trying to break insignificant records. Then when its all said and done. we can blame it on the weather and the Colts "D"!

 

835850[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Apparently WaterMan has resurfaced with another alias. Nice try, dumbass. What is this, your seventh or eigth now? You're giving Jennifer Garner a run for her money.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was picking third. LT. SA. Gone. Now, if Holmes was younger and healthier..... but he isnt. I had to look at point differentials. I had a bunch of RB's in the next tier (if you like that label) . Of all the players still left, the highest upside at any position in terms of point differential was Manning. I took some heat for that pick, but I stand by it. Manning could throw 50. I expect less, but I dont think CPep or McNabb will be anywhere close. If I had to do it over again, I'd do the same thing.

 

835753[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

It's not just the TDs. He never misses games. He isn't dependant on one stud WR for production, which makes his production less prone to a drop off if one specific WR gets hurt. There is credible running threat in Edge that keeps defenses from playing against the pass all the time. He threw only 10 INTs last year (one of the lowest number of any the QBs to play the whole season) in 497 attempts. That's only about 2 in every hundred throws; less than 1 a game. He had the 4th most completions (336) and 3rd most yards (4557). So even if his TD totals don't tickle 50 this year, he's still an extraordinarily low-risk, consistent player. It's just that he's got that 50 TD upside attached to him, as well.

 

Simply put, there *might* be other 1st round pick candidates with more upside, but they all carry more risk than Manning (McGahee and Holmes are a good examples). But no other 1st round pick candidate has lower risk, except perhaps Tomlinson.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Apparently WaterMan has resurfaced with another alias.  Nice try, dumbass.  What is this, your seventh or eigth now?  You're giving Jennifer Garner a run for her money.

 

835905[/snapback]

 

 

 

:D Not WaterMan (who is a Falcons fan instead of a Pats fan)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Call me crazy, but shouldn't the Colts focus on advancing through the playoffs rather than how many TD's manning throws.  Maybe they need to tweak their team philosophy just a tad and control the clock more so they're ready for those close games in January.

 

835835[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Thank You.

And the comment made so much sense that Swerski didn't even reply.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You can make a case for taking him at the 1.01 pick, regardless the size of the league--but in deeper leagues (my local is 15/16), it is a tough pick to make that high.

 

835545[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

 

What a bunch of sheep you guys are.

 

I got mocked last year for taking Manning at #17 (2.01) in a 16 team league. Now all of a sudden he's being bandied about as the #1 overall pick! You're a year too late ladies!

 

Keep reading those 7-11 magazine rack fantasy football rags that make money selling last year's stats to the clueless. You make it easy on the rest of us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What a bunch of sheep you guys are.

 

I got mocked last year for taking Manning at #17 (2.01) in a 16 team league.  Now all of a sudden he's being bandied about as the #1 overall pick!  You're a year too late ladies!

 

Keep reading those 7-11 magazine rack fantasy football rags that make money selling last year's stats to the clueless.  You make it easy on the rest of us.

 

836068[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

I forgot to check your credentials as an all mighty, but since you chose my quote to attach your message to, let me clarify.

 

I play in a deep local, and I wouldn't be selecting Manning before a whole slew of RB's and the top WR's. There just isn't enough depth to go around, and I'd rather have a serviceable QB than a great one, as long as I can get the consisntecy at the RB and IDP side.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information