49erAddict-08 Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 I am debating using a value-based drafting spreadsheet to help me in my draft this year. My draft preparation usually just consists of reading a lot during the offseason, then bringing the huddle rankings to the draft and going from there. I've prepared value-based spreadsheets in the past but never used them in the draft. How useful do you guys think they are? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 stick around and sign up for Rhino's and decide for yourself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 Stud RB-based drafting is much more effective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargerz Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 As part of my preparation for my league drafts, I will include studying them as well as various player ranking sheets that I see. I generate my own cheatsheet, but use ALL this information to help me. I know some guys who use them exclusively at their drafts, but I prefer to just have value-based spreadsheets as another part of the overall data that I collect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 As part of my preparation for my league drafts, I will include studying them as well as various player ranking sheets that I see. I generate my own cheatsheet, but use ALL this information to help me. I know some guys who use them exclusively at their drafts, but I prefer to just have value-based spreadsheets as another part of the overall data that I collect. 849527[/snapback] Exactly what I was going to say: they can be used as research tools, but by no means would i ever draft off one exclusively... I formulate my own cheatsheets, based on past seasons' performances, "expert" rankings, and VBD cheatsheets... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 No. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchoutofwater Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 I wouldn't pay for one. I make my own based upon my projections, which are usually the Huddle projections, a few other projections I get off the web, and my gut feelings all pretty much averaged out, except where Cowboys are concerned and then I don't use my gut or the Huddle, as we are both biased. I use it as a tool, but do not use it exclusively. Too many people pay to much attention to their cheat sheets, and not enought to who has already drafted what, and take people that are good values, that they could have taken a round or two later at a great value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myhousekey Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 They are only as good as the projections that are behind them. So in other words, it's allot like other cheatsheets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Neutron Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 As part of my preparation for my league drafts, I will include studying them as well as various player ranking sheets that I see. I generate my own cheatsheet, but use ALL this information to help me. I know some guys who use them exclusively at their drafts, but I prefer to just have value-based spreadsheets as another part of the overall data that I collect. 849527[/snapback] What he said. The worst thing you can do is go into a draft "knowing" what you're going to do. A small mistake by 1 or 2 other guys can be a boon to you. Keeping an eye on a VBD sheet can help you more easily notice when a player has fallen too far in a draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Dick Posted June 22, 2005 Share Posted June 22, 2005 stick around and sign up for Rhino's and decide for yourself. 849518[/snapback] rhino. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohjay Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 Rhino's sheet is all you will need Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 Stud RB-based drafting is much more effective. 849519[/snapback] Not that I want to get into a big debate about this...but I think this totally depends on both draft position and what players have been selected before your pick. I am pretty much on record that IMHO drafting Manning early in the first will sink any fantasy team that does it. He might be the top value player in the draft. The problem with value based drafting as an entity unto itself is that VBD does not directly consider the impact of taking a player at a particular position at different points in the draft. A first round QB taken based solely on a positional value assesment does not take into account what I can only term as the 'value shift' taking that player has on your roster as a whole. The problem is that there is no way to predict or quantify this value shift. It's like calculating the importance of a 'position move' in chess as opposed to a capture. Captures are easy to evaluate. Positional change only comes through in the press to checkmate, but isn't quantifiable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rovers Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 Not that I want to get into a big debate about this...but I think this totally depends on both draft position and what players have been selected before your pick. I am pretty much on record that IMHO drafting Manning early in the first will sink any fantasy team that does it. He might be the top value player in the draft. The problem with value based drafting as an entity unto itself is that VBD does not directly consider the impact of taking a player at a particular position at different points in the draft. A first round QB taken based solely on a positional value assesment does not take into account what I can only term as the 'value shift' taking that player has on your roster as a whole. The problem is that there is no way to predict or quantify this value shift. It's like calculating the importance of a 'position move' in chess as opposed to a capture. Captures are easy to evaluate. Positional change only comes through in the press to checkmate, but isn't quantifiable. 851154[/snapback] What is interesting about your perspective Nick, is that you don't seem to apply it to how taking an RB in the first also creates a value shift at other positions too. Because the RB, RB thing is so accepted (by me as well) that it's often overlooked. Point differential calculations (given the monicker of VBD) are just one of several tools one can use, but no one tool is the answer, thankfully.... that would take the fun out of it. I have seen teams go WR, WR and win. It's not something I would do, but it can happen. This year, mpre so than others, i can see the Manning pick for several reasons.... I think he offers the highest VBD in the first round, based on my projections, but that then dictates 2 RB's in the next two rounds, regardless if there is a WR with a higher VBD available. There are a couple more "safe" non RBBC types this year, which also makes the Manning pick more viable. I saw one person take Manning in the first, and Gonzo in the third, all based on VBD. I would never make the Gonzo pick there, because I don't think VBD can justify it, although it does on paper. This guy ended up with Blaylock as his second RB. While Gonzo was the VBD choice in the third, the VBD between Blaylock and the RB he could have gotten turned out to be greater that the TE differential he relied on. This is the value shift you are talking about. VBD is a guide, but that is all it is, especially in the middle to later rounds, when roster requirements start to dictate what positions one must pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 What is interesting about your perspective Nick, is that you don't seem to apply it to how taking an RB in the first also creates a value shift at other positions too. Because the RB, RB thing is so accepted (by me as well) that it's often overlooked. Point differential calculations (given the monicker of VBD) are just one of several tools one can use, but no one tool is the answer, thankfully.... that would take the fun out of it. I have seen teams go WR, WR and win. It's not something I would do, but it can happen. 851271[/snapback] I have drafted away from RB, RB on many occasions. I understand the concept you are speaking to very well. The major difference is that I know I can get a good QB later, and often even as late as round 9 The difference in the position differential for RB, WR, and TE by delaying the QB selection until later rounds is enormous, while the QB differential after the first one to three is minimal. The RB differential from just round 1 to three is easily as great as the QB diff from round 1 to round 9. It's an economics thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 (edited) if you've got a good formula, it can be very helpful just to get an idea of the relative value and scarcity between positions given your league's scoring and lineup requirements. beyond that, IMO, fiddling around with projections and such is basically a waste of time. Edited June 23, 2005 by Azazello1313 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
policyvote Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 (edited) Here's what I do: For each position, type out the huddle rankings (I do it into Excel). Then go from the top down and do it optometrist-style--ask yourself: Would I rather have this guy or that guy on my team for 16 weeks this season? Put your answer in the top slot and the other guy right beneath him. Then, look at the lower of the two you just did, and the guy beneath him--and ask yourself the same question. Go all the way down the list this way. And, any time you move a guy up, ask the question of that guy and the guy above him until he goes as high as he'll go. Ultimately, you have a top-to-bottom list, ranked as you prefer them. This is the only true reference available to a fantasy football player. "Value-based drafting" depends 100% on the projections you use, which are nothing but biased guesses anyway. A "projection" is just a very complicated way of explaining who you like the best this year. Why not just rank them in that order to begin with, and drop all the pseudo-mathematical bullsh*t? "Stud RB" drafting is a great way to get yourself stuck with two mediocre RBs. Draft the best player--and the best value--available. Better yet, play real fantasy football and do an auction. Peace policy Edited June 23, 2005 by policyvote Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted June 23, 2005 Share Posted June 23, 2005 The only thing a spreadsheet is really good for is keeping up with what players are available & helping to make those tough decisions between players. The rest should all weigh on your own educated opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swampnuts Posted June 24, 2005 Share Posted June 24, 2005 The only thing a spreadsheet is really good for is keeping up with what players are available & helping to make those tough decisions between players. The rest should all weigh on your own educated opinion. 852013[/snapback] Best advice yet. The whole point of FF is to build your OWN team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruffian Posted June 24, 2005 Share Posted June 24, 2005 Best advice yet. The whole point of FF is to build your OWN team. 852467[/snapback] Yep. Gut instinct is much easier to live with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huddled Masses Posted June 24, 2005 Share Posted June 24, 2005 if you've got a good formula, it can be very helpful just to get an idea of the relative value and scarcity between positions given your league's scoring and lineup requirements. beyond that, IMO, fiddling around with projections and such is basically a waste of time. 851663[/snapback] It's like people who buy books on how to win the lottery. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest THEbigred Posted June 24, 2005 Share Posted June 24, 2005 I've prepared value-based spreadsheets in the past but never used them in the draft. How useful do you guys think they are? 849515[/snapback] They aren't. The basic concept of "value-based" drafting is logical enough, but I LMAO @ the goobers at FBG who get all wrapped up in it (and I believe some even PAY for it?!? lol). It's just a fancy way of micro-managing your opinion of how a player will do and makes about as much sense as projecting stats down to the last yard. What a hideous waste of time, in the prime of summer no less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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