DMD Posted June 25, 2005 Author Share Posted June 25, 2005 Am I missing something? Did HINES WARD die? Break a leg? Fall off the planet? If not, I'll take him at #4. 854158[/snapback] No, and if he did die or break a leg - he'd be dropping in the rankings big time Hines Ward. Ben Roethlisberger. The team that had in total only 2950 passing yards last year. Now Ward did look good in those first two games with Big Ben since no one knew what to expect or who to cover. Ward had 151/1 and 96/1 in those games (against BAL and MIA). The later matchup against the Ravens in week 16 only resulted in 3 catches for 21 yards though. In those final 12 games that Ward played with Roethlisberger, let's see what he did: 4 CIN 6-48,05 CLE 6-61,06 @DAL 9-76,08 NE 6-58,09 PHI 2-32,110 @CLE 3-42,011 @CIN 3-15,012 WAS 3-42,013 @JAX 4-80,114 NYJ 2-38,015 @NYG 9-134,016 BAL 3-21,0 That gives him a total oftwo touchdowns in the last 12 games adn an average of 54 yards per game. Only once did he eclipse 100 yards (against NYG who they do not play this year) and seven times he failed to top 50 yards in a game. While Burress is now gone, will that mean Ward gets more passes or just more attention by the secondary? Or both? Or a net effect that is a wash? He was already getting 8 passes per game thrown to him last year. The reality is that the Steelers are not throwing much and Roethlisberger is still a second year player that now has only one WR to concern secondaries. How that could possibly translate into a top ten spot in a draft doesn't make any sense to me personally. Sure - he has fantasy value to be sure. But given his performance in conjunction with Roethlisberger last year and what the offense now does, and the loss of any other WR to divert attention from him makes Ward a player I would love to have as a WR2, but not as a WR1 for my fantasy team. He may have topped 10 TDs in both 2002 and 2003 in a different offense with a different QB, but in 2000, 2001 and 2004 he scored only four times in each season. That is more along the lines of what the offense is designed to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GhostFace Posted June 25, 2005 Share Posted June 25, 2005 No, and if he did die or break a leg - he'd be dropping in the rankings big time Hines Ward. Ben Roethlisberger. The team that had in total only 2950 passing yards last year. Now Ward did look good in those first two games with Big Ben since no one knew what to expect or who to cover. Ward had 151/1 and 96/1 in those games (against BAL and MIA). The later matchup against the Ravens in week 16 only resulted in 3 catches for 21 yards though. In those final 12 games that Ward played with Roethlisberger, let's see what he did: 4 CIN 6-48,05 CLE 6-61,06 @DAL 9-76,08 NE 6-58,09 PHI 2-32,110 @CLE 3-42,011 @CIN 3-15,012 WAS 3-42,013 @JAX 4-80,114 NYJ 2-38,015 @NYG 9-134,016 BAL 3-21,0 That gives him a total oftwo touchdowns in the last 12 games adn an average of 54 yards per game. Only once did he eclipse 100 yards (against NYG who they do not play this year) and seven times he failed to top 50 yards in a game. While Burress is now gone, will that mean Ward gets more passes or just more attention by the secondary? Or both? Or a net effect that is a wash? He was already getting 8 passes per game thrown to him last year. The reality is that the Steelers are not throwing much and Roethlisberger is still a second year player that now has only one WR to concern secondaries. How that could possibly translate into a top ten spot in a draft doesn't make any sense to me personally. Sure - he has fantasy value to be sure. But given his performance in conjunction with Roethlisberger last year and what the offense now does, and the loss of any other WR to divert attention from him makes Ward a player I would love to have as a WR2, but not as a WR1 for my fantasy team. He may have topped 10 TDs in both 2002 and 2003 in a different offense with a different QB, but in 2000, 2001 and 2004 he scored only four times in each season. That is more along the lines of what the offense is designed to do. 854171[/snapback] You make a compelling argument as to why he might not be in the top 5 (I will still take him at 4 if he's there), but there is no reason not to take him at 6 or lower. He had a rookie qb last year and still managed to break 1000 yds. and and scored 5 tds. That rookie qb was a true greenhorn, and hit the wall towards the end of the season. I also believe that Antwaan Randle El will pick up the slack and emerge this season as a threat to compliment Ward. In my opinion he is much better than Wayne, Johnson, and Smith. (My Green Bay homerism will not allow me to dispute your high opinion of Walker (good call)). Don't forget that Ward started his career with Slash on his downward spiral, and no wonder his stats suffered. When he had a pocket qb (Maddox) in 2002 and 2003, Ward flourished. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lobsterclaw Posted June 25, 2005 Share Posted June 25, 2005 Wow, not having Hines Ward on the list is an absolute horrible list. Steve Smith is coming off a bad injury, and he only had one really good fantasy year. Hines Ward is a CAREER STUD who's numbers 'dropped' last year. Without BurrAss taking away his TD's, look out. Steve Smith shouldn't be in that list as a second tier WR. But this ranking is from the same person that two years ago had William Green and Koren Robinson in the top 5 at their positions as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billay Posted June 25, 2005 Share Posted June 25, 2005 I think Johnson is more talented than either Horn or Walker, I like his situation this season, his schedule and he's definitely someone I want on my team in 2005. If there is any player due to crack the top 3 for the first time, it is Chad Johnson. Everything points to a big year for him. 853584[/snapback] Are you so high on him that you would keep him over the likes of D. Davis or J. Jones? (keep in mind you are already keeping LT) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted June 25, 2005 Author Share Posted June 25, 2005 Wow, not having Hines Ward on the list is an absolute horrible list. Steve Smith is coming off a bad injury, and he only had one really good fantasy year. Hines Ward is a CAREER STUD who's numbers 'dropped' last year. Without BurrAss taking away his TD's, look out. Steve Smith shouldn't be in that list as a second tier WR. But this ranking is from the same person that two years ago had William Green and Koren Robinson in the top 5 at their positions as well. 854224[/snapback] For the record, Green was never top 5. I had him around 10th in 2003 before his offensive line fell apart due to injuries and he only played in 7 games thanks to a DUI, getting stabbed and Josh Gordon possession. He still had two 100 yard games right before all the wheels fell off his career. Robinson - the guy has top 5 talent. If he'd ever put the bottle down and pull his head out, he might show it. Nothing he has done indicates that will ever happen and it is a shame. Why is it people pick out the two players over the last couple of years that failed to meet expectations (thanks to conditions beyond their control or reasons external to their ability/schedule) and yet no one seems to remember the ones I got right over anyone else? As for Ward, I think either people are being overly optimistic about some tremendous leap in development over the summer for Roethlisberger or they are too tied to what happened in the past in a different offense (with a different coordinator and play calling). PIT had the #28 passing attack in the NFL last year and considering the final 12 games under Roesthlisberger, it wasn't even that high. As for Randle El, I would love to see him do something. But after three years I am surprised at how many people immediately figure him to make a big leap in production in an offense that doesn't like to throw. Randle El has never had more than 600 yards in a season nor more than 3 TDs. His YPC is on the low side of average and he is only 5-10 unlike the giant Burress. Throw in the Steelers, for some reason, acquired Cedrick Wilson in the offseason. Randle El is in the final year of his contract that they have yet to extend and yet they just signed Wilson to a four year contract with $8 million and with a $2 million signing bonus. How does that work out positively for Randle El the slot guy who has never shown nearly as much as expected and who has spawned the confidence in him for PIT to go out and sign Wilson to a far superior contract than Randle El's? I mean - Cedrick Wilson? Hey - anything can happen. Ward could post top 5 numbers because it is the NFL. He was #2 in 2002 (Moulds #4, Toomer #5) and he was #6 in 2003 (S. Moss #7, Mason #8). Disregarding the other 5 years in his career, the offensive style and coaching in place this season, a 2nd year QB who averages 50 yds a game to Ward with a TD every month and the lack of any other credible receiver, and I'll stick him in the Top 5. But that is not what I see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted June 25, 2005 Share Posted June 25, 2005 I'm with you DMD, I don't thinkd Hines will be a top 10 this year. Of course, I've never been a Hines guy in the past and that's definitely not gonna change this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylive5 Posted June 25, 2005 Share Posted June 25, 2005 Why is it people pick out the two players over the last couple of years that failed to meet expectations (thanks to conditions beyond their control or reasons external to their ability/schedule) and yet no one seems to remember the ones I got right over anyone else? 854306[/snapback] If there is anything that an amateur loves to do more than anything else it is to be critical of a professional and continuously point out the occassional flaw. It is especially grand when you can do it anonymously. There is no personal satisfaction in agreeing with the pro. I have always been a Ward person.... gonna suck this year to pass him up because of the situation in Pitt. Just don't see him being anywhere near where he should be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
major-tom Posted June 25, 2005 Share Posted June 25, 2005 I have always been a Ward person.... gonna suck this year to pass him up because of the situation in Pitt. Just don't see him being anywhere near where he should be. 854325[/snapback] Ward is one of my favorite players over the last 5 years or so. The way he makes catches over the middle, taking tough hits from the safeties. He has been probably the best blocking WRs in recent years as well and plays the game the way it should be. That being said he killed me last year in one of my leagues and looking over the game stats from the post above I now realize why. I kept plugging him in my starting lineup thinking the Steelers passing game would snap out of it....they never did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westvirginia Posted June 25, 2005 Share Posted June 25, 2005 Why is it people pick out the two players over the last couple of years that failed to meet expectations (thanks to conditions beyond their control or reasons external to their ability/schedule) and yet no one seems to remember the ones I got right over anyone else? 854306[/snapback] Like Portis' rookie year when I was nearly laughed out of my local draft for taking Manning in the first and him in the fourth, and then won it all. Although I have been abused for having love for K-rob the last couple years... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lobsterclaw Posted June 25, 2005 Share Posted June 25, 2005 OK DMD, Now that you have 'justified' why Hines Ward isn't a top tiered receiver, now I am curious on why Steve Smith is in the top 10? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted June 25, 2005 Share Posted June 25, 2005 Geez, DMD, why not just post the final standings from fantasy WR's last year as your cheat sheet for 2005. That should be the way it shakes out again this year, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted June 25, 2005 Author Share Posted June 25, 2005 Geez, DMD, why not just post the final standings from fantasy WR's last year as your cheat sheet for 2005. That should be the way it shakes out again this year, right? 854347[/snapback] In all sincerity, I honestly think that is how many other sites do it and then tweak the numbers. Personally - I start from "zero" for every player and then factor in not only last year (and the two previous seasons), but the schedule, the team dynamics, coaching, trends, competition within the team and on and on. That's why my rankings could never be done as quickly as they get thrown up on other places around the internet. What I especially like is how some places will have all this player movement in their rankings during July when there is nothing happening and no teams are together. I have never understood that. Every ranking has reasoning behind it and it takes reasoning to move it which is why I write them all out every summer. Even if every single ranking is not perfect (though I clearly think they should be), at least you know the reasoning behind the rankings and any moves to make up your own mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted June 25, 2005 Share Posted June 25, 2005 OK DMD, Now that you have 'justified' why Hines Ward isn't a top tiered receiver, now I am curious on why Steve Smith is in the top 10? 854344[/snapback] Buy the book! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooknladder Posted June 25, 2005 Share Posted June 25, 2005 Yes, we all agree Ward kicks a$$, but that has nothing to do with statistical projections. I love Chad in the top five...however why not Horn?- he came on real strong and he is fairly consistant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted June 25, 2005 Author Share Posted June 25, 2005 Yes, we all agree Ward kicks a$$, but that has nothing to do with statistical projections. I love Chad in the top five...however why not Horn?- he came on real strong and he is fairly consistant. 854355[/snapback] I have Horn as 7th. His only downside is the NO schedule and his age of 33 - nothing major there but a slight concern. 7th is still pretty high given the 162 WRs that I projected for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lobsterclaw Posted June 25, 2005 Share Posted June 25, 2005 ......and Steve Smith is there because..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BS Miscreant Posted June 25, 2005 Share Posted June 25, 2005 Where did A. Johnson end up in the WR rankings last year? I know he disappointed somewhat in one of my leagues though. Will he get over the sophomore slump this year? 853640[/snapback] I don't think you can call it a "sophomore slump" if the guy's 2nd year numbers were better than his 1st. Anyway... Am I missing something? Did HINES WARD die? Break a leg? Fall off the planet? If not, I'll take him at #4. 854158[/snapback] Wow, not having Hines Ward on the list is an absolute horrible list. 854224[/snapback] I've had Ward on my keeper team for two years and having watched the majority of their games last year I chose not to keep him this year and traded him for picks. I don't believe that decision will haunt me either because even if he outperforms my expectations I don't see him even sniffing top ten numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted June 25, 2005 Author Share Posted June 25, 2005 ......and Steve Smith is there because..... 854381[/snapback] Okay. One more. But at this rate there will be nothing to read when the rankings come out. To put this into context, I see Ward and Smith as rather similar players actually - both are workout warriors, both the best WR on their team and who have displayed great talent at their position. They are both "do whatever it takes" kind of players. If you placed either in the situation of the other you would likely get the same results. That is what I believe. Smith has Delhomme as a QB though and Delhomme can be a very good QB. He actually reminds me a little of Brett Favre except the offense is not designed to throw as much as a GB offense does. Comparing Delhomme to Roethlisberger is revealing - Delhomme threw for 3219/19 TDs in his first starting year and then had 3886/29 last year. Delhomme has been in the NFL for seven years and is seasoned veteran. Ben had 2621/17 in his surprising rookie year. Most of that came early in his season until gamefilm was made available on him. Plus the PIT offense doesn't throw much anyway. So - I like the QB situation with Delhomme. A player like Steve Smith will always get his passes even when the offense is doing well. In Smith's big 2003 year, he ended up with 1110 yards and 7 TDs in only his 3rd season - the first one that he received many passes and the first one under Delhomme as well. I do not like the CAR RB situation. De'Shaun Foster is always hurt or getting hurt, Stephen Davis is a huge question mark coming off microfracture surgery and there's Eric Shelton there who may end up being the starter by year's end. The RB situation just does not appear nearly as good as found in PIT who lead the NFL in rushing yards in 2004. CAR was only 23rd. Smith had already developed in his third season and was cut short in his fourth with the leg break that is 100% healed and he is back in camp at full strength. I like Smith's nasty attitude - it doesn't play well at a dinner party nor even in the film review room at times but it translate very well to the field. Consider the best WRs in the game now and how many all have attitude and ego. You have to have it in order to run across the middle and do something when you catch the ball. My ranking of Smith respects his development as a player, his chemistry with a QB that can throw well, the questions surrounding the rushing game and progression in his career that all signs point at. I like his situation, his upside and his talent as a player. As it works out, I only project him for 10 more fantasy points than Ward. And I would rather have him than Ward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest THEbigred Posted June 25, 2005 Share Posted June 25, 2005 (edited) Wow, not having Hines Ward on the list is an absolute horrible list. Steve Smith is coming off a bad injury, and he only had one really good fantasy year. Hines Ward is a CAREER STUD who's numbers 'dropped' last year. Without BurrAss taking away his TD's, look out. Steve Smith shouldn't be in that list as a second tier WR. But this ranking is from the same person that two years ago had William Green and Koren Robinson in the top 5 at their positions as well. 854224[/snapback] Isn't hindsight wonderful DMD makes a good argument. I think Ward's numbers will perk up a bit, but I sure wouldn't want him as my #1. R-El and Wilson may not have the 2 cent head that numbnuts Buress does, but they don't have the talent either. And this is a run-first team, big-time. My main concern with S Smith is losing Muhammed. Muhammed is now highly overrated after a career year that he can't even dream of sniffing this year, but he was a nice complement to Smith. I am not sold on the remaining WRs, although they stepped up some last year. So I would take Ward over Smith, but it's hardly a night-and-day choice. PS ya got Harrison too high DMD. Pretty good list otherwise. Edited June 25, 2005 by THEbigred Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtomicCEO Posted June 26, 2005 Share Posted June 26, 2005 The great thing about this country is that despite DMDs sought after opinions, you have the right to draft whoever you want, whenever you want. If you think Ward is better than Smith, and you're right... you may win your league because of it. They only make you draft in the exact order of the cheatsheet you bring in communist russia. USA! USA! USA! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max Posted June 26, 2005 Share Posted June 26, 2005 As for Ward, I think either people are being overly optimistic about some tremendous leap in development over the summer for Roethlisberger or they are too tied to what happened in the past in a different offense (with a different coordinator and play calling). PIT had the #28 passing attack in the NFL last year and considering the final 12 games under Roesthlisberger, it wasn't even that high. As for Randle El, I would love to see him do something. But after three years I am surprised at how many people immediately figure him to make a big leap in production in an offense that doesn't like to throw. Randle El has never had more than 600 yards in a season nor more than 3 TDs. His YPC is on the low side of average and he is only 5-10 unlike the giant Burress. Throw in the Steelers, for some reason, acquired Cedrick Wilson in the offseason. Randle El is in the final year of his contract that they have yet to extend and yet they just signed Wilson to a four year contract with $8 million and with a $2 million signing bonus. How does that work out positively for Randle El the slot guy who has never shown nearly as much as expected and who has spawned the confidence in him for PIT to go out and sign Wilson to a far superior contract than Randle El's? I mean - Cedrick Wilson? 854306[/snapback] Even as a Pitt homer I totally agree with you about both Ward and Randle El. The Steelers are clearly a run first team and I see Ward getting more attention from defenses. I also agree he does have the ability to post top 10 numbers but at the same time he shouldn't be in the top 10 list at this point due to the fact that it simply would be a guess. There really isn't anything concrete to back up putting him there. I know some will say it is what he has done over the past few years that puts him there but this will be the first year that he is the only guy to draw attention from DB's. Even if Plax didn't catch the ball he still took up extra DB's. As for as Randle El I think if he can ever decide where he wants to run after he gets the ball and just runs rather than dancing he could do some damage. He seems to take away his advantage from himself when he does that. When he is dancing from side to side with the ball he is no faster than anyone else out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rovers Posted June 26, 2005 Share Posted June 26, 2005 Is anyone buying into the recent reports that Pitt will pass more this year? It would make sense, given the ages of Staley and Bettis, but it seems every year these run oriented offenses say they will throw more.... and don't. Whenever the Steelers played the Jets, Randle El always worried me the most. He could run by CB's, but never seemed to do much with the seperation he created. I think, if he can get the starting job, he could be a nice sleeper.... if one is to believe that the Steelers will pass at least a little more. I don't think Bettis can repeat what he did last year, and Staley doesn't seem to wear defenses down the way Bettis did. A pet peeve..... I hate when people say "that's a horrible list". What a crock. My rankings NEVER match up perfectly with anyone else's. The idea behind rankings, as far as I am concerned, is to look and understand why a given player might be ranked differently than I have him. Maybe there I things I didn't consider and need to reevaluate. Maybe the person that wrote the list overlooked something (not likely when yer talking about a DMD list). It's fine to discuss, but comments like that just bug the crap out of me. I know that early rankings are very shaky, but I still like to see them. Some drafts happen pretty early, so it's a best guess. I understand DMD's reluctance to put one out there before things are more settled though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max Posted June 26, 2005 Share Posted June 26, 2005 Is anyone buying into the recent reports that Pitt will pass more this year? It would make sense, given the ages of Staley and Bettis, but it seems every year these run oriented offenses say they will throw more.... and don't. 854768[/snapback] I have heard that they plan to open the playbook up more for ben this year. I could see them adding more plays but that doesn't mean that the % of pass plays will drastically increase. It may end up being tha the types of pass plays change a little but the % of pass plays may not go up that much. The only way I can see the Steelers throwing 35-40 times in a game is if they are playing catch up. I think the Steelers will continue to run the ball in close games as well as when they are leading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvnhbbrd Posted June 27, 2005 Share Posted June 27, 2005 Looks alright, for the first ranking of the season. That is only the first, right? You are going to update it, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted June 27, 2005 Author Share Posted June 27, 2005 Looks alright, for the first ranking of the season. That is only the first, right? You are going to update it, right? 855268[/snapback] The entire listing is a little longer than 10 players and yes, it will be updated every day it needs it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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