Curtis Martin, Here I go Again!

[Rovers]

Last year I kept telling people Martin was primed to break the top five RB's. Few listened. Those who did, were richly rewarded. That debate raged well into the seaon, with most saying trade him while his value was high, he couldn't keep it up. Those who unloaded him eneded up being very sorry they did. No, I didnt think he'd win the rushing title, but I knew he was very under rated, and said so.

 

Once again, most ADP's have him around 18 for RB's. This is ridiculously low.

 

Inside the Numbers

Last year the Jets ran the ball 454 times, with Martin getting 368 of those. His YPC was 4.6 compared to his career YPC of 4.1. At an absolute minimum, barring injury, Martin will again be over 300 carries this year, but let's go with the 300 number. Let's also go with a YPC of 4.0, both extremely conservative estimates. That means 1200 yards. A more realistic estimate is about 1350 to 1400 yards rushing. He had 12 rushing TD's last year, and 2 recieving TD's. He is in no danger of losing goal line carries to Blaylock or the rookie Houston. I personally think the OC change on the Jets will result in more scoring. Let's cut his TD production down to 12 total anyway. This puts him closer to an ADP of around 10 to 12. With a potential for upside to boot.

 

Some expect the Jets to throw more and open up the passing game, which is true, but not to the extent most seem to think. The Jets ran the ball 454 times last year, and there is NO WAY that drops under 400 this year. Expect the Jets to throw 2 to 3 more times a game than they have under ex-OC Hackett. Yes, the new OC Heimerdinger aired the ball out recently as the Titans OC, but many forget how run oriented his O plans were when he had Eddie George. He will still pound Curtis. But what he will bring is a softening of the safeties with this new offense.

 

He wants to establish the big play as a viable threat, and will use Jolley more often, again, forcing opposing safeties to soften up some, and move off the box. This should help Martin's YPC. Last year, he had only 7 runs of 20+ yards. this change could help him improve on that number. No, he's not a break away threat, but if the safeties have to respect both the deep play and the TE, it can only help Martin.

 

One thing that does concren me is that Martin passed on the pro bowl because he was "beat up". If it weren't for that, he'd be in my top ten. The Jets O line returns, with the loss of Kareem McKenzie, and second year man Adrian Jones stepping in. TE Becht is also gone, and he was an outstanding run blocker, so Jolley is also a downgrade in this respect. But, Martin at 18? No way.

[Guest THEbigred]

http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?showtopic=96731

 

Actually I don't think he was very underrated by very many people; most I saw/heard thought he looked great and expected at least a solid year. No, no one expected a rushing title, but many had him in their sights as a value pick. Interesting that he may be one again, despite winning the title.

[Jimmy Neutron]

It's hard to bet against C-Mart. The guy was phenomenal last year. Though he has proven to be very durable, the odds are not good that he can continue at this pace.

 

Who knows, now that he won't have Jordan pressuring him, maybe he'll really bust out???

[DMD]

Since we are using numbers, let's throw a few more into the mix.

 

Martin had 371 carries last year - nine more than any other player in the league. And yet he never once ran the ball for more than 25 yards on any of his 371 plays. Not once. Volume helps every player to be sure. There were 71 RB's in the NFL last year who had longer runs than Martin's best - in spite of him getting more attempts than anyone.

 

While Martin could get the 12 TDs mentioned above, other than last year he has not scored that many times since 1996 with the NE Patriots. More his norm? 2003 - 5 TD, 2002 - 5 TD. And 2005 - 14 TD. "Which one of these, is not like the other? Which one of these, doesn't belong?" (If you have small kids that should be funny).

 

There is only one RB in the NFL older than Martin. Betttis is 33 and Martin is 32 (along with Marshall Faulk and Priest Holmes - both soon to retire as well). What Martin did last year was astounding and a huge statistical abberation. He's not finding himself after ten years in the NFL.

 

His average carries for the two previous seasons was 294 per year.

 

Martin did slow down at the end of the season - the old man was tuckered out. He had nice games against Seattle (who didn't) and St. Louis (ditto). But his YPC went down late in the year PIT (3.0), NE (2.5), SD (3.7).

 

Martin had a tremendous burst last year but to think that was more indicative of what to expect from the 32 year old RB than the two previous years is optimistic in my opinion. I think he had a great year at the end of his career. ANd his final great year.

[Bill Swerski]

Agreed. C-Mart has been one of the most durable workhorse RBs over the past decade and is a virtual lock for Canton. But, at age 32, expecting him to tear it up again (especially after a 371-carry season) isn't realistic. This guy's had over 300 carries in 8 of his 10 seasons and he's gonig to wear down sometime soon. I expect that this will probalby be C-Mart's last 1,000-yd season. Neither Payton nor Emmitt reached 1,000 yds after age 32.

[hooknladder]

Did DMD say the Priest is SOON to retire???- I smell a Huddle exclusive!

[Rovers]

Since we are using numbers, let's throw a few more into the mix.

 

Martin had 371 carries last year - nine more than any other player in the league. And yet he never once ran the ball for more than 25 yards on any of his 371 plays. Not once. Volume helps every player to be sure. There were 71 RB's in the NFL last year who had longer runs than Martin's best - in spite of him getting more attempts than anyone.

 

While Martin could get the 12 TDs mentioned above, other than last year he has not scored that many times since 1996 with the NE Patriots. More his norm? 2003 - 5 TD, 2002 - 5 TD. And 2005 - 14 TD. "Which one of these, is not like the other? Which one of these, doesn't belong?" (If you have small kids that should be funny).

 

There is only one RB in the NFL older than Martin. Betttis is 33 and Martin is 32 (along with Marshall Faulk and Priest Holmes - both soon to retire as well). What Martin did last year was astounding and a huge statistical abberation. He's not finding himself after ten years in the NFL.

 

His average carries for the two previous seasons was 294 per year.

 

Martin did slow down at the end of the season - the old man was tuckered out. He had nice games against Seattle (who didn't) and St. Louis (ditto). But his YPC went down late in the year PIT (3.0), NE (2.5), SD (3.7).

 

Martin had a tremendous burst last year but to think that was more indicative of what to expect from the 32 year old RB than the two previous years is optimistic in my opinion. I think he had a great year at the end of his career. ANd his final great year.

 

854343[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Ah, taking on the master! It's actually a little scary! But here goes, anyways. Yes, agreed, Martin was worn out last year, and skipped the pro bowl because of it, as I also mentioned.

 

I also brought up the fact that he is no threat to break off any long runs. I do however, feel that he can improve on his 20 yard run production, for the reasons I also stated. Last year, with two really horrible pass catching TE's, the SS played the box all year. Opposing D's just didn't have to worry about a TE hurting them. While the loss of Becht means a decline in the run blocking effectivesness of the Jets TE spot, the fact that Jolley can catch and run should serve to move the SS back off the line some. A few play action passes to the TE should establish that in Heimerdingers offense early on. I see this as a wash.

 

A new offensive RT. Unless Adrian Jones surprises, this has to be a step back for the O line. The rest of the line returns intact, and it's a pretty good unit.

 

 

Using 2002 and 2003 as benchmarks for Martin is faulted, I think, because he played through an inordinate amount of injuries, especially the high ankle sprain, much like McAllister did last year. Last year, Martin came in and stayed healthy for the first time since 2001. He has had over 300 carries every year since 1997 except for 2002. His numbers reflected that. Can he do it again at the age of 32? I'll have a better idea once I see him in camp. That was when I realised last year that he was ready for a big year. The explosiveness was back. I could see the difference, it was like night and day.

 

The history of RB's who get over 300 carries is not promising, most will miss at least some, and often will miss quite a few games the following year. There are notable exceptions, like Tiki and Martin, but the odds arent good.

 

I do expect that the Jets offense will put up more points this year, as the offensive game plan changes to a "lets try to win" philosphy as opposed to a "lets try not to lose" one. This should increase Martin's goal line opportunities. He had 14 total TD's last year (12 rush, 2 pass) and I project a decrease from that to a total of 12, even though I think the offense will score more.

 

I think, all things considered, Martin should get more than 300 carries, 1300 yards, another 200 in reception yardage, and 12 TD's. All these numbers represent a serious decline in production, given the premise the Jets offense will score more under Heimerdinger. That means about 222 FF points this year. As much as there is some risk given his age, there is also potential upside to 250 FF points as well. I have him at an ADP of 12 based on the 222 point projection.

 

This is off to about the same sort of start it got off to last year! LOL. Homers just can't see straight! lemme take off the rose colored glasses!

[DMD]

This should increase Martin's goal line opportunities. He had 14 total TD's last year (12 rush, 2 pass) and I project a decrease from that to a total of 12, even though I think the offense will score more.

 

I think, all things considered, Martin should get more than 300 carries, 1300 yards, another 200 in reception yardage, and 12 TD's. All these numbers represent a serious decline in production, given the premise the Jets offense will score more under Heimerdinger. 

854375[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Okay. So you see 12 TDs as a serious decline even though that would be more than he had in the two seasons combined prior to last year. I see that as a serious increase to expectations. You cannot benchmark one career year. You should take into account all years and in Martin's case, you have plenty to work with.

 

The offense is changing agreed. Heimerdinger comes to town and brings in the same offense that used Eddie George (who incidentally is the same age as Martin though with less mileage).

 

George had 5 TDs in his final year with Heimerdinger which came when he was actually three years younger than Martin is now. This was when the Titans offense was operating as Heimerdinger wanted and before the defense fell apart. Does no one remember the knock on George when he was playing? He would get yards but not many scores. He too had a big year in 2002 when he scored 14 TDs in his own late career skyrocket year. He had 5 scores the previous year under Heimerdinger.

 

The new offense will take a little time to gel I would suspect since they always do and for right now, Pennington's health is not 100% certain when he will be able to particpiate in training camp with no restrictions to learn that offense.

 

I'm guessing you want Muhsin Muhammad this year too

[Guest THEbigred]

Since we are using numbers, let's throw a few more into the mix.

 

Cmon ya old fart, let's REALLY throw em out

 

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/1132

 

Martin getting solid yds or better is reasonably certain. I think his final perceived value keys largely on what kind of TD production one expects, as you guys are touching on. As you can see from the link, over his career, he averages exactly 8.5 TDs, and that's IMO about what to expect, ie 6-10 range, roughly.

 

Expecting another year like last one would be outright silly, and I'm always leery of the age thing (occasionally paying for it too :doah: ), but there's no denying the man's talent or tenacity. So basically...do I want him as my #1? Of course not. #2? There are a few others I'd prefer, but given they will all likely cost more than I care for (literally in my case, as we do an auction draft), you could do a LOT worse. Throw in that they are still a run-first team and I think won't be afraid to "workhorse" him again since he's on borrowed time anyway, plus I think Coles' return helps the O overall, and you probably have a good value pick here.

Edited June 25, 2005 by THEbigred

[DMD]

Cmon ya old fart, let's REALLY throw em out   

 

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/1132

 

  As you can see from the link, over his career, he averages exactly 8.5 TDs, and that's IMO about what to expect, ie 6-10 range, roughly. 

 

 

854445[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

I agree. I projected 1350/230/8 TDs for Martin this year.

[Guest THEbigred]

I agree. I projected 1350/230/8 TDs for Martin this year.

 

854453[/snapback]

 

 

 

Yep.

 

Please oh please let him fall. Or maybe I should throw him out early in the auction and people will be afraid to "waste" too much on him - ?

[Rovers]

I agree. I projected 1350/230/8 TDs for Martin this year.

 

854453[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

That would be about 206 FF points.... I have him at 222, with possible upside. Not too much difference, at 16 points. So, I haven't gone off the cliff with my projections..... by any means. I am NOT predicting that he'll repeat last year's performance. The Jets offense scored only 38 TD's last year. Under Heimerdinger, in 2005 I am projecting an increase of 7 TD's. Pennington has to stay healthy and start at least 14 of those games. If Feidler has to start one or two games, I don't think it would impact Martin very much, but any more than that, and it would. I am projecting that the additional 7 TD's will all be off passing plays. That falls in line with my passing TD projection for Pennington at 26.

 

Last year the Jets had 15 rushing TD's: Martin, 12, Jordan 2, Pennington 1. While Martin will see a possible decline in rushing TD's, I don't see it as being likely to fall below 10. Not with Jordan gone and Blaylock in. Last year, both Buffalo and NE had Martins' number, yet he still produced. Playing the AFC East again this year should not have a big impact, as he still performed in other games. At the end of last year, when he was weaing down, he still put up big numbers except against the best defenses in the NFL, being NE and Pitt. He still went for 134 yards and two scores against Seattle in week 15 and in week 17 against St Louis he got 153 yards and two scores. Yes, the very good defenses like NE, Buffalo and Pitt shut him down, but the teams with average (or worse) defenses still could not stop him.

 

I only see 12 TD's (total, a decrease of 2) as a serious decline in terms of what % of the Jets TD's will be scored by Martin, not in absolute numbers. I stated that here in a previous post:

 

"I think, all things considered, Martin should get more than 300 carries, 1300 yards, another 200 in reception yardage, and 12 TD's. All these numbers represent a serious decline in production, given the premise the Jets offense will score more under Heimerdinger."

 

Now, here is where I think the 12 TD number is realistic. Martin is still capable of the three TD game, and I think he will have at least two multiple TD games. If this holds water, he only needs another 7 to 8 TD''s in the remaining 14 games. Or, about every other game to hit my 12 TD projection. Some have indicated that I am predicting a repeat of last year, and I'm not even close to doing that. What I am saying is that most ADP's have him as a poor #2 RB this year. I am saying he's about the best #2 RB this year, or at least amoung the top three #2 RB's. That is the difference between and ADP of 18 to 20 vs. my ranking of 12, with potential upside to crack top ten. Anyone who takes Manning early in the first should be thrilled to get Martin. I sure was in the IDP mock.

 

I'm not crazy about the George comparison other than the number of carries Heimerdinger gave him. George only had double digit rushing TD's twice in his career, while Martin has 4. George was a bulldozer power RB, while one reason for Martin's longevity is that he doesn't take the kind of hits George founded his running style on. He never goes helmet to helmet the way George did, even at the goal line. RB's like George usually have short careers. The Ravens finished George off in that playoff game, he was never quite the same again.

 

I expected many, just like last year to underestimate Martin again. No, he may not be a solid #1, but, he's no third tier RB either.