New "Big Picture" Ranking Methodology

[muck]

When ranking players, I consider the players that could, if the stars aligned properly, have enormous, insane years...and use that to help me pick throughout the entire draft...

 

For example, I'll ask myself which QBs could have a chance of throwing for 36+ TDs or 4400+ yards, given the coaching philosophy and talent of the players around them?

 

Off the top of my head and in no certain order, PManning, MBulger, DCulpepper, DMcNabb, TGreen, BFavre, KWarner, CPalmer, JDelhomme, JHarrington, ABrooks, Brees, Collins, Plummer, Carr, Griese and TBrady.

 

...now, I'm not saying that Brian Griese or Kurt Warner is going to throw for 45 TDs and 5000 yards, but, I am saying that if given a choice of either of those two guys or Rex Grossman in the 13th round to be your 2nd or 3rd QB, you're nuts if you don't take Warner or Griese... Same sort of thing when getting your first QB... Matt Hasslebeck simply doesn't have the weapons to throw for 32 TDs or 4000 yds...much less 4400/36; Collins does. Maybe Hasslebeck can put up 3600yds and 24TDs, but not much more than that...and definately not 4400/36. Does that mean that I think Collins will outproduce Hasslebeck? No, not necessarily. But, it does mean that you shouldn't be too surprised if you look up at the end of the year and scratch your head and think, "why didn't I see THAT coming"?

 

This sort of thing may not yield much on the surface, but, I find this sort of thing really helps me crystallize my thoughts on certain players.

 

...on to RBs...

 

Q: Who could get more than 20 total TDs or more than 2400 total yards from scrimmage?

A: In no particular order...SAlexander, LTomlinson, Jordan, TBell, DDavis, JLewis, McCallister, RJohnson, SJackson, CPortis, PHolmes, KJones, LSuggs, McGahee, Edge, CBrown, TBarber and Westbrook.

 

...again, I'm not saying that you're nuts-o if you don't have Lee Suggs on your top 10 list, but, I'm thinking that he'll be a much better pick that someone like Michael Bennett, even if you could get him two or three rounds later...simply because I think it's more likely that he'll put up HUGE numbers than Bennett...not that he will, but that he's more likely to.

 

And, frankly, when the season is over, do you get real excited about a 3rd place finish?

 

Me either.

 

How about WRs that could get more than 16 TDs or more than 1600 total yards?

 

Maybe DJackson, RCaldwell, ALelie, AndJohnson, JWalker, NBurleson, DBennett, MClayton, LColes, Holt, Harrison, Wayne, CJohnson, Moss, PBurress, JSmith, JHorn, and SMoss.

 

Again, this doesn't mean that I really THINK that Reche Caldwell is going to put up 1600yds or 16 TDs, but that I think it's more likely that he does it that Eddie Kennison, Derrick Mason or Larry Fitzgerald ... all of whom may be on the board when you're considering your WR2 or WR3 at the same time Mr. Caldwell is available. Same thing when picking WR1s... You think that Jimmy Smith is old, and you'd be right. But, who else is going to catch the ball, especially if Fred Taylor is hurt and the passing game is all they have in JAX? I think 1600yds or 16TDs is more likely for him than it is for Rod Smith or even Roy Williams ... mainly because one is old with young, proven talent breathing down his neck, an able bodied TE, a proven rushing attack and an moderatly inconsistent (historically speaking) QB and the other has two other very capable WRs, a capable pass-catching TE, a good receiving RB and a questionable QB (historically speaking).

 

...just some stuff to think about...

 

Or at least some stuff I was thinking about.

Edited June 28, 2005 by muck

[seminoles]

When ranking players, I consider the players that could, if the stars aligned properly, have enormous, insane years...and use that to help me pick throughout the entire draft...

 

For example, I'll ask myself which QBs could have a chance of throwing for 36+ TDs or 4400+ yards, given the coaching philosophy and talent of the players around them? 

 

Off the top of my head and in no certain order, PManning, MBulger, DCulpepper, DMcNabb, TGreen, BFavre, KWarner, CPalmer, JDelhomme, JHarrington, ABrooks, Brees, Collins, Plummer, Carr, Griese and TBrady.

 

...now, I'm not saying that Brian Griese or Kurt Warner is going to throw for 45 TDs and 5000 yards, but, I am saying that if given a choice of either of those two guys or Rex Grossman in the 13th round to be your 2nd or 3rd QB, you're nuts if you don't take Warner or Griese...  Same sort of thing when getting your first QB...  Matt Hasslebeck simply doesn't have the weapons to throw for 32 TDs or 4000 yds...much less 4400/36; Collins does.  Maybe Hasslebeck can put up 3600yds and 24TDs, but not much more than that...and definately not 4400/36.  Does that mean that I think Collins will outproduce Hasslebeck?  No, not necessarily.  But, it does mean that you shouldn't be too surprised if you look up at the end of the year and scratch your head and think, "why didn't I see THAT coming"?

 

This sort of thing may not yield much on the surface, but, I find this sort of thing really helps me crystallize my thoughts on certain players.

 

...on to RBs...

 

Q: Who could get more than 20 total TDs or more than 2400 total yards from scrimmage?

A: In no particular order...SAlexander, LTomlinson, Jordan, TBell, DDavis, JLewis, McCallister, RJohnson, SJackson, CPortis, PHolmes, KJones, LSuggs, McGahee, Edge, CBrown, TBarber and Westbrook.

 

...again, I'm not saying that you're nuts-o if you don't have Lee Suggs on your top 10 list, but, I'm thinking that he'll be a much better pick that someone like Michael Bennett, even if you could get him two or three rounds later...simply because I think it's more likely that he'll put up HUGE numbers than Bennett...not that he will, but that he's more likely to.

 

And, frankly, when the season is over, do you get real excited about a 3rd place finish? 

 

Me either.

 

How about WRs that could get more than 16 TDs or more than 1600 total yards?

 

Maybe DJackson, RCaldwell, ALelie, AndJohnson, JWalker, NBurleson, DBennett, MClayton, LColes, Holt, Harrison, Wayne, CJohnson, Moss, PBurress, JSmith, JHorn, and SMoss.

 

Again, this doesn't mean that I really THINK that Reche Caldwell is going to put up 1600yds or 16 TDs, but that I think it's more likely that he does it that Eddie Kennison, Derrick Mason or Larry Fitzgerald ... all of whom may be on the board when you're considering your WR2 or WR3 at the same time Mr. Caldwell is available.  Same thing when picking WR1s...  You think that Jimmy Smith is old, and you'd be right.  But, who else is going to catch the ball, especially if Fred Taylor is hurt and the passing game is all they have in JAX?  I think 1600yds or 16TDs is more likely for him than it is for Rod Smith or even Roy Williams ... mainly because one is old with young, proven talent breathing down his neck, an able bodied TE, a proven rushing attack and an moderatly inconsistent (historically speaking) QB and the other has two other very capable WRs, a capable pass-catching TE, a good receiving RB and a questionable QB (historically speaking).

 

...just some stuff to think about...

 

Or at least some stuff I was thinking about.

 

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you make a lot of sense with this.

 

i will add more later, i want to make my own lists now

Edited June 28, 2005 by seminoles

[godtomsatan]

But, it does mean that you shouldn't be too surprised if you look up at the end of the year and scratch your head and think, "why didn't I see THAT coming"?

 

 

Same thing goes for when Kerry Collins is rendered unconscious in Week 5, thus redefining his "sleeper" tag used as justification for taking him with your 4th Round pick with Hasselbeck still on the board.

[Rovers]

This is what I call "upside potential". What players have the potential upside to blow the league up? I think the players you listed is way too big a group. However, projecting upside, and hitting on some of your hunches is what brings the trophy home. Who did it last year? Manning, CPep, Martin, Tiki, Mush, Gates, Gonzo (sort of), for a short list. The one guy with the best chance to do it this year.... is Collins. Like you, I'm NOT sayin he will, but the pieces are in place for such an occurance.

[seminoles]

Manning, CPep, Martin, Tiki, Mush, Gates, Gonzo (sort of), for a short list.

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i drafted martin and gates, but also had taylor and c. borwn

[Vinatieri Is God]

This is what I call "upside potential".

 

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Who are you, Hubie Brown??

[Skilly]

So, to summarize your thoughts........

 

You're basically just guessing, like the rest of us.

[Rovers]

So, to summarize your thoughts........

 

You're basically just guessing, like the rest of us. 

 

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[Piranha]

So, to summarize your thoughts........

 

You're basically just guessing, like the rest of us. 

 

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That's what it's all about, who guesses the best

[Caveman_Nick]

How about WRs that could get more than 16 TDs or more than 1600 total yards?

 

Maybe DJackson, RCaldwell, ALelie, AndJohnson, JWalker, NBurleson, DBennett, MClayton, LColes, Holt, Harrison, Wayne, CJohnson, Moss, PBurress, JSmith, JHorn, and SMoss.

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So you think Burleson is better than Porter, huh? Maybe we should explore that further...

..

[Skilly]

  So you think Burleson is better than Porter, huh?  Maybe we should explore that further...

..

 

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[Clubfoothead]

  So you think Burleson is better than Porter, huh?  Maybe we should explore that further...

..

 

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No chance. :oldrazz:

[Yukon Cornelius]

shush muck

[muck]

Seminoles...that's quite a job of copy/paste there... Way to go!

 

And, no, I'm not "guessing like everyone else," I'm trying to lay a foundation for who is really capable of having MONSTER years, and then to allocate probabilities of having the monster year.

 

FWIW, this is the same approach I used a few years ago to 'guess' Steve Beurlein (sp?) when he had his MONSTER year in Carolina several years ago...and subsequently used to get Tiki Barber in the 7th and 8th rounds four or five years ago...that I used to get Chad Johnson VERY cheap in an auction two seasons ago...and used to get Eddie Kennison before last year in the mid/late rounds as well.

 

Sure, sometimes it doesn't work...but, simply because the player I thought most likely to have a monster year simply didn't.

 

If you do this for enough players in your draft, and DO NOT draft the players too early, you should have a few mid/late round picks pan out better than everyone else in your league who took other players in the same rounds...and it is THIS factor (in conjunction from not screwing up your first two picks) that differentiates the winners from the losers in FF.

[Sgt. Ryan]

Muck, shut up. Do you think I want hannibals, Dynasty Wars and Fusion owners actually having a clue there is strategy to fantasy football and its not just a dart throw during the draft.

[skylive5]

....its not just a dart throw during the draft. 

 

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It isn't? Hmmmm...... little late in the game to learn this.

[muck]

shush muck 

 

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Muck, shut up. Do you think I want hannibals, Dynasty Wars and Fusion owners actually having a clue there is strategy to fantasy football and its not just a dart throw during the draft.

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...so, this must be helpful then. :p