Undefeated72 Posted June 30, 2005 Share Posted June 30, 2005 I think in order to get to the playoffs...You have to win those 1-3 extra games during the season which usually comes down to picking the right kicker and/or defense.....How do you judge?? Sacks?? I usualy look first at the O-line and then I look to see if the QB is mobile or a pocket passer....If he is a pocket passer does he have a quick release. Interceptions?? Look first at the QB and then at the defense.. PA???? Look at the Over/Under and how many points the offense puts up vs how many points the defense gives up. Special teams?? returner vs badly coached teams. Is it better to start a kicker against a bad defense or a good one?? I just don't know the answer.. How do you judge? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keys Myaths Posted June 30, 2005 Share Posted June 30, 2005 Is it better to start a kicker against a bad defense or a good one?? I just don't know the answer.. 859085[/snapback] Think worst case scenario: Kicker vs. Bad Defense: Your worst nightmare...offense scores 5 touchdowns, but no field goals. Points: 5 Kicker vs. Good Defense: It's 21-0, and your kicker never gets in the game. Points: 0 So, even worst case, a kicker is better off against a bad defense. Reality: Good defenses don't just stop touchdowns...they stop yards gained. Your kicker will struggle just to make one field goal, with his team playing the position game for 4 quarters. A bad defense will give up yards...and the kicker's team will spend most of the game in field goal range. Unless they're the Colts, they will have fourth downs. Difference is, that's when the kicker comes in and blows up points for your team. Bad defense, every time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted June 30, 2005 Share Posted June 30, 2005 Word on the street is that the Huddle's upcoming 2005 Fantasy Football Handbook has a brilliantly written article on evaluating kickers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargerz Posted June 30, 2005 Share Posted June 30, 2005 Word on the street is that the Huddle's upcoming 2005 Fantasy Football Handbook has a brilliantly written article on evaluating kickers. 859091[/snapback] Let me guess---> pick the kicker that scores the most points! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted June 30, 2005 Share Posted June 30, 2005 I think you are in trouble if you are dependant on your kicker or your defense to carry you to the playoffs. Looking at one of my leagues with fairly standard scoring: This is how the top 12 kickers finished in 2003 163 - Wilkins 157 - Vanderjagt -------------------- 134 - Stover 125 - Kasay 120 - Elam 120 - Longwell 114 - Akers 114 - J.Brown 112 - Vinatieri 106 - M.Andersen 106 - Graham 105 - Brien This is how the top 12 kickers finished in 2004 141 - Vinatieri ---------------- 129 - Elam 124 - Reed 122 - Akers 122 - Graham 120 - Longwell 119 - Vanderjagt 117 - Lindell 117 - Stover 114 - Kaeding 109 - J.Brown 109 - Tynes So if you didn't get Wilkins or Vanderjagt in 2003 and you didn't get Vinatieri in 2004 it was largely irrelevant as long as you got one of the top 12. Kickers are incredibly hard to predict year to year and it is counter-productive to put too much analysis in which kicker to pick. On average Wilkins scored 3 more points per week than the 12 ranked kicker in 2003. On average Vinatieri scored less than 2 points more per week than the 12 ranked kicker in 2004. You are chasing fool's gold. ---- 2003 defensive finishes: 174 - BAL 172 - NEP 169 - STL 155 - KCC 147 - TEN 143 - MIA 135 - MIN 133 - SFO 132 - DET 132 - CAR 131 - TBB 122 - ATL 2004 defensive finishes: 195 - BUF 167 - BAL 157 - NEP 151 - ATL 147 - IND 147 - PIT 141 - CHI 139 - CIN 132 - TBB 128 - CAR 127 - NOS 127 - SEA As you can see if you don't get the TOP defensive unit (or in 2003 one of the top TWO) it is largely irrelevant as long as you get one of the top 12. Like kickers it is incredibly hard to predict how defenses will finish year to year. Who would predicted all the defensive/special teams TDs by Buffalo last year? Or by Kansas City (Daunte Hall) 2 years ago. Again you are chasing fool's gold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Piranha Posted June 30, 2005 Share Posted June 30, 2005 Good post Grits. I think it basically comes down to a lot of luck in that department. Sure there are 3 or 5 kickers that you prefer to get... from the teams that you think will score the most. As for picking defenses, most people seem to pick by statistics from the previous year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loaf Posted June 30, 2005 Share Posted June 30, 2005 But Blitz, if you look at the difference between the #1 Def in 03 (Balt) vs. the 12th (Atl), it's another 4 points per week (assuming a 13 Week Regular Season). Combine that with the diff. in Kicker's scoring (3) and you're now up to 7 points/week. He's asking about winning 1-3 games more a season and those 7 points might just be the difference... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted June 30, 2005 Share Posted June 30, 2005 But Blitz, if you look at the difference between the #1 Def in 03 (Balt) vs. the 12th (Atl), it's another 4 points per week (assuming a 13 Week Regular Season). Combine that with the diff. in Kicker's scoring (3) and you're now up to 7 points/week. He's asking about winning 1-3 games more a season and those 7 points might just be the difference... 859153[/snapback] Good luck figuring out which team will be the top defense and which kicker will be the top kicker from year to year. I imagine if you figure out how to do that you could make quite a bit of cash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikesVikes Posted June 30, 2005 Share Posted June 30, 2005 (edited) What I like for a kicker 1. Play on an above average offense. One that will get to the red zone even if they don't always score tds. 2. Play on a team with a solid defense. That team is more likely to settle for any points. Last season, Vanderjagt wasn't the top kicker because of his team's red zone efficiency. Manning scored too many times. Defenses seem to get on streaks during the season. Confidence in a team defense can carry over to the following weeks. It also helps if your playing against Tim Rattay instead of Peyton Manning. Edited June 30, 2005 by MikesVikes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furd Posted June 30, 2005 Share Posted June 30, 2005 Blitz beat me to it. If you have only 1 PK and 1 DEF on your roster, (which you should IMO) you don't worry about matchups. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted June 30, 2005 Share Posted June 30, 2005 Word on the street is that the Huddle's upcoming 2005 Fantasy Football Handbook has a brilliantly written article on evaluating kickers. 859091[/snapback] Oh yes....it's solid. Couldn't keep myself awake when reading it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted June 30, 2005 Share Posted June 30, 2005 (edited) Oh yes....it's solid. Couldn't keep myself awake when reading it! 859307[/snapback] What did you expect from an article about kickers? <in best DeForest Kelley voice> Dammit, Gil. I'm a fantasy fooball writer; not a miracle worker. Edited June 30, 2005 by yo mama Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted June 30, 2005 Share Posted June 30, 2005 Here's what I do for better or worse: What I like for a kicker1. Play on an above average offense. One that will get to the red zone even if they don't always score tds. 2. Play on a team with a solid defense. That team is more likely to settle for any points. 859190[/snapback] And indoors if I can get one. Blitz beat me to it. If you have only 1 PK and 1 DEF on your roster, (which you should IMO) you don't worry about matchups. 859299[/snapback] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted June 30, 2005 Share Posted June 30, 2005 Word on the street is that the Huddle's upcoming 2005 Fantasy Football Handbook has a brilliantly written article on evaluating kickers. 859091[/snapback] Should be better than that crappy "Trash Can Report". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted June 30, 2005 Share Posted June 30, 2005 Should be better than that crappy "Trash Can Report". 859532[/snapback] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh 0ne Posted June 30, 2005 Share Posted June 30, 2005 859562[/snapback] Just kidding man. I love the Trash Can Report. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted June 30, 2005 Share Posted June 30, 2005 Just kidding man. I love the Trash Can Report. 859883[/snapback] Go easy on him, dude...you haven't read the K report yet....it's some bland stuff, man! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undefeated72 Posted June 30, 2005 Author Share Posted June 30, 2005 I think what you said was wrong and right....If you stay with the same kicker each week you would be correct....However pick a top five free agent kicker each week and your wrong....How many games could you have won JUST on your own team if you had picked the right defense and kicker each week...Maybe only a win or two...But if thats all you needed to squeak into the playoffs or get that BYE week..It made a difference... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted June 30, 2005 Share Posted June 30, 2005 (edited) I think what you said was wrong and right....If you stay with the same kicker each week you would be correct....However pick a top five free agent kicker each week and your wrong....How many games could you have won JUST on your own team if you had picked the right defense and kicker each week...Maybe only a win or two...But if thats all you needed to squeak into the playoffs or get that BYE week..It made a difference... 860272[/snapback] For the record, I agree with you. That's why paying attention to kickers is more important during the season than it is during the draft. Free agency can be your friend if the draft didn't pan out for you; perhaps more so than for any other position because it is the most ignored position. I won a playoff game in my BOTH league last year because I benched my regular kicker (Josh Brown) for a waiver wire guy (Lindell) and I won by exactly the amount of points Lindell exceed Brown. Admittedly, the tactic only really made a difference for me in that one game last year. But that was the difference between going to the super bowl and not going. Edited June 30, 2005 by yo mama Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted June 30, 2005 Share Posted June 30, 2005 For the record, I agree with you. That's why paying attention to kickers is more important during the season than it is during the draft. Free agency can be your friend if the draft didn't pan out for you; perhaps more so than for any other position because it is the most ignored position. I won a playoff game in my BOTH league last year because I benched my regular kicker (Josh Brown) for a waiver wire guy (Lindell) and I won by exactly the amount of points Lindell exceed Brown. Admittedly, the tactic only really made a difference for me in that one game last year. But that was the difference between going to the super bowl and not going. 860285[/snapback] WDIS: Fuad Reveiz or David Akers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max Posted July 1, 2005 Share Posted July 1, 2005 I really don't put much thought into kickers too. I usually just make a game day decision on the kicker. I take into consideration weather conditions and try to avoid any kicker that has to kick in Heinz field that week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Furley Posted July 1, 2005 Share Posted July 1, 2005 Picking a kicker is pretty much a crapshoot. Get one on a decent offense and hope for the best pretty much. Generally, I don't put a whole lot of time into worrying about the defense either. You know which ones are good, so you try to get one. If you don't get a solid defense, you wait until later in the draft and get one. Sounds simple enough to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted July 1, 2005 Share Posted July 1, 2005 Let's look at my local league last year http://football2.myfantasyleague.com/2004/...Y=points&TEAM=* Here is the order the defenses finished in my local and where they were drafted 1. BUF - 17th defense drafted at 15.04 2. PIT - 15th defense drafted at 14.02 3. NE - 4th defense drafted at 8.04 4. BAL - 1st defense drafted at 6.11 5. ATL 6. IND 7. NYJ - 13th defense drafted at 13.11 8. PHI - 5th defense drafted at 8.05 9. TB - 7th defense drafted at 8.08 10. CIN 11. CHI 12. DET The team that drafted Buffalo dropped them after week 2 and another owner scooped them up. Atlanta was picked up after week 2, dropped week7, picked up by another owner week 8. It is the same every year in my league ... because defenses are so unpredictable year to year a good one can be had on the waiver wire early in the season. The guy that drafted BAL in the 6th would have been better served filling another need as BAL ended up looking just like PIT, NE, and ATL ... and ATL could have been add off the waiver wire. NE at 8.04 as the 4th defense taken worked out well for that owner. But notice the 2nd and 3rd defenses drafted didn't make the top 10 ... neither did the 6th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th or 12th. Notice PHI and TB were also taken in that 8th round ... but there were 3 teams on the waivers that scored as well .. CIN, CHI, and DET. So drafting defenses is pretty much a crap shoot. Trying to draft the "one" that will take you the championship is fool hardy. Trying to find the "one" on waivers is smart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted July 1, 2005 Share Posted July 1, 2005 Now looking at the kickers in the same league: http://football2.myfantasyleague.com/2004/...Y=points&TEAM=* Here is the order the kickers in my local finished and where they were drafted: 1. Vinatieri - 4th kicker taken at 10.09 2. Elam - 3rd kicker taken at 10.06 3. Akers - 9th kicker taken at 13.02 4. Graham 5. Reed 6. Longwell - 7th kicker taken at 12.05 7. Stover - 8th kicker taken at 12.08 8. Kaeding 9. Vanderjagt - 1st kicker taken at 9.03 10. jankiowski - 6th kicker taken at 12.04 11. Lindell 12. Brien Notice they guy that took the first kicker (Vanderjagt) in round 9 didn't fare too well. And if you didn't get Vinatieri there wasn't a lot of difference between the kickers ... Elam scored 144 ... Vanderjagt 124 ... Brien 118. 26 point difference between 2nd best kicker and 12th best kicker ... or less than 2 points per game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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