Most overrated player?

[skins]

Santana Moss.

[Avernus]

I agree. 

 

I know I'm going to take a little heat for this one, but I've always thought Shaun Alexander was pretty overrated for a "stud" RB.  His overall numbers don't reflect it, but from week to week you never know what you're going to get from him...he seems to do either nothing or absolutely go off.  I checked his game logs from the last 3 seasons...in 48 games played, he has had under 80 yards rushing in 23 of them (almost half).  He's had under 60 yards rushing in 14 of them, and under 40 yards rushing in 6 of them.  I'm not saying he sucks by any means, I just think if he was as great as a lot of people seem to think, he'd show up with a little more consistency.

 

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I had this argument with somebody last year about him being inconsistent...and I still stick by it...

 

If anything, Alexander might be behind Edge IMO....wasn't SA playing for a contract last year?...at least edge was robbed by a dominant offense, SA just gave all or nothing every week...especially since the colts have a pretty nice run schedule coming up this season...

 

now, I'll probably take heat for this like skrappy said about his post...but he's overrated now, especially as #2...he'll slide off just like Green did last year...

[darin3]

Please take your seat, Darin.  School is now in session.

 

D-Jax dropped a number of balls last year, to be sure.  However, he still managed to catch 87 of them.  Considering he only caught 63 in 2003, 62 in 2002 (where he missed three games), and 70 in 2001, I'd say he's improved in that regards quite a bit.  That also means that he caught more passes last year than Harrison, Clayton, Ward, Andre Johnson, Rod Smith, Donald Driver, Drew Bennett, Wayne, Meshawn, T.J. Housh, or Owens.  (Every other WR in the NFL caught less than 70 passes and is unworthy of comparison).

 

Only 9 other WRs caught more passes than D-Jax: Moulds (88), Bruce (89), Walker (89), Coles (90), Moose (93), Holt (94), Horn (94), C. Johnson (95), and Mason (96).

 

D-Jax was targeted 155 times last seaons - the 4th most - of any WR.  That translates into being targeted an average of 10.4 times in every game he played (a full 16, might I add); the 6th most of any WR.  Only Boldin, Moose, C. Johnson, Mason, and Coles got more looks on a per game basis.

 

D-Jax accrued the 10th most receiving yards of all WRs at 1207 (though NFL.com says 1199, but whatever).  However, only 6 WRs - C. Johnson, Bruce, Holt, Wlaker, Horn, and Moose - served up apprciably more yards.  (Bennett (1247), Wayne (1210), and Driver (1208) were are pretty much the same as D-Jax).  That means D-Jax racked up more receiving yards than Owens, Clayton, J. Smith, Mason, R. Smith, A. Johnson, and Harrison.  All remaining WR failed to crack the 1100 mark and are unworthy of comparison.

 

Jackson also scored a respectable 7 TDs.  Not a barn burner number, but about a TD every other game.  In fact, he did a good job spreading those TDs around, giving him more week to week appeal, with only one game with multiple TDs (vs. SF).

 

Now, you may be saying, "but that was just one good year.  I don't buy into the notion that he's that consistent a WR."  Well, you'd be partly right and partly wrong.  D-Jax wasn't consistent last year in some ways, relative to prior years.  But despite being the 14th most productive WR in my BOTH league, 2004 was actually a down year for D-Jax in some ways.  Let's take a look at some NFL.com stats.

 

2004: 1199 yards with a 13.8 yard per reception average, and 7 TDs

2003: 1137 yards with a 16.7 yard per reception average, and 9 TDs

2002: (missed three games) 877 yards for a 14.1 yard per reception average and 4 TDs

2001: 1081 yards for a 15.4 yard per receptions average and 8 TDs.

 

Looking at those stats, here's what I see:

- yards and TDs were fairly consistent on an aggregate basis, which is good;

- however, last year was D-Jax's worst yard per reception average since his rookie year; and

- 7 TDs per year seams to be a conservative expectation for D-jax, given that every other year he played a full 16 games he scored more than that (even in his rookie year where he only started nine games, but played in 16, he scored 6 TDs).

 

I guess my point is this: if last year was an "off" year for D-Jax, I shudder to think of what he could do if he was "on."

 

Also consider that he has one of the five easiest schedules for WRs during the fantasy playoffs this year.

 

Now, back to the issue of the dropped passes.  He dropped 11 of them in 2004.  That's 11 dropped passed out of the 155 thrown to him, or about 7% dropped.  Last year he dropped 12 of the 130 passes thrown to him, or about 9.2%.  I'd say all those stats are moving in the right direction, wouldn't you?

 

Considering D-Jax can easily be had in the late 3rd to mid 4th round of a 12 team draft, I'd say he serves up surprising consistency at an inheriantly inconsistant position.  He's got nice upside, he's his team's true #1 WR, and what he offers simply comes with less risk, relative to many of the other WRs who are going to be drafted around the same time.

 

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Uhh, OK. I drafted him in a mock, as a WR3. I'm not THAT down on him. The question was who is OVERRATED. Case in point: people are saying he's got WR1 fantasy talent, but always disappoints. He's at best a decent WR2, in my opinion. Hence, overrated.

 

All I remember from him last season is dropping nearly every BIG pass (this isn't all about fantasy stats, remember) from Hasselbeck. Perhaps this is his year.

 

But yeah, that was an incredibly in-depth answer, but was pretty much unnecessary; perhaps I should have been more explicit in my reasoning behind him being overrated in my opinion.

[yo mama]

now, I'll probably take heat for this like skrappy said about his post...but he's overrated now, especially as #2...he'll slide off just like Green did last year...

 

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Stop with your horrible, horrible lies!!! (Yeah, Alexander is one of my keepers.)

[yo mama]

  Uhh, OK.  I drafted him in a mock, as a WR3.  I'm not THAT down on him.  The question was who is OVERRATED.  Case in point:  people are saying he's got WR1 fantasy talent, but always disappoints.  He's at best a decent WR2, in my opinion.  Hence, overrated. 

 

All I remember from him last season is dropping nearly every BIG pass (this isn't all about fantasy stats, remember) from Hasselbeck.  Perhaps this is his year. 

 

But yeah, that was an incredibly in-depth answer, but was pretty much unnecessary; perhaps I should have been more explicit in my reasoning behind him being overrated in my opinion.

 

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I beleive D-Jax is a legit #1 WR for a team who spends their first 3 picks on other positions. But I'd say he's an awsome #2 WR that shouldn't fall past the 4th round in a 12 team league. He'll be a top 15 WR if he plays all 16 games, guranteed.

[Avernus]

Stop with your horrible, horrible lies!!!  (Yeah, Alexander is one of my keepers.)

 

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the truth is hard to bear...he reminds me alot of Green in production...and both had a 3 TD game in week 1 last year...

 

If he jumps off like wildfires in week 1 again, trade him for a stud QB and good RB that is young with great upside IE: K Jones, S Jackson etc..

[darin3]

I beleive D-Jax is a legit #1 WR for a team who spends their first 3 picks on other positions.  But I'd say he's an awsome #2 WR that shouldn't fall past the 4th round in a 12 team league.  He'll be a top 15 WR if he plays all 16 games, guranteed.

 

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Agree on all counts - was actually going to note that he'd be a more than servicable WR1 if you go RB/RB/QB on your first three picks. I'd be happy to have him as a WR2. I was ecstatic to see him as my WR3 in the latest Huddle Mock (albeit the 8-team version). And you proved my point: he can be a top-15 WR... but I have people ranking him in the top FIVE... which to me, is overrating him.

[Skrappy1]

I had this argument with somebody last year about him being inconsistent...and I still stick by it...

 

If anything, Alexander might be behind Edge IMO....wasn't SA playing for a contract last year?...at least edge was robbed by a dominant offense, SA just gave all or nothing every week...especially since the colts have a pretty nice run schedule coming up this season...

 

now, I'll probably take heat for this like skrappy said about his post...but he's overrated now, especially as #2...he'll slide off just like Green did last year...

 

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Thank Avernus, I'm glad I'm not the only one to notice this about him. I absolutely agree that I'd rather have Edge too (at the very least in terms of actual football)...In fantasy, SA might single-handedly win you a couple of games each season with one of his 200 yard 3 or 4 TD days, but then he'll disappear for a couple of weeks...Edge tends to deliver his production a little more consistently, which is more important if you ask me.

 

In comparison with some other RBs in the past 3 seasons:

 

Alexander - played in 48 games. Had under 80 yards rushing in 23 of them (48%)

Edge - played in 43 games. Had under 80 yards rushing in 15 of them (35%)

Portis - played in 44 games. Had under 80 yards rushing in 16 of them (36%)

Deuce - played in 45 games. Had under 80 yards rushing in 17 of them (38%)

 

The numbers between Alexander and Portis and Deuce are relatively equal as far as games under 60 yards, but between Edge and Alexander:

 

Alexander - of 48 games played, he had under 60 yards in 14 games (29%)

Edge - of 43 games played, he had under 60 yards in only 7 games (16%)

 

So even with the injuries these other guys have had (and maybe we should give Alexander some props for at least always staying healthy), their production has all been more consistent then Alexander, and all of those other three had single digit carries in a few of those games, while Alexander hasn't had a game under 11 carries in the past three years. I'm definitely not trying to say he's THE most overrated player, so maybe this is the wrong thread, but I do think he's somewhat overrated.

 

 

Stop with your horrible, horrible lies!!!  (Yeah, Alexander is one of my keepers.)

 

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Well, with all of the above said, I'm not so sure I wouldn't take him on one of my squads, he just wouldn't be one of my first couple of picks, that's all.

Edited July 1, 2005 by Skrappy1

[yo mama]

Well, with all of the above said, I'm not so sure I wouldn't take him on one of my squads, he just wouldn't be one of my first couple of picks, that's all. 

 

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I'll be keeping him along with Manning in a 12 team league. I guess I'll have to figure out some way to get by on a week to week basis.

[Skrappy1]

I'll be keeping him along with Manning in a 12 team league.  I guess I'll have to figure out some way to get by on a week to week basis. 

 

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Woe is you...I wish you luck in that endeavor my friend.

[CaptainHook]

Here we go again. Three years ago (2002) Shaun Alexander had a very up-and-down year. He would have multiple TD games, and then not have any for a few weeks. However, the last two years SA has been very consistent with his TD production. I will agree that his yardage can fluctuate wildly. I attribute that to Holmgren's obsession with passing. Walrus has single handedly blown several games by ignoring the running game for complete series. SA is definitely even more valuable in leagues where TD's are equal to or more valued than yardage. I posted this in another thread:

2004

Week 01: 2 TD rush 1 TD rec. (twisted knee at end of game)

Week 02: 0 TD

Week 03: 2 TD rush 1 TD rec.

Week 05: 1 TD rush

Week 06: 1 TD rush

Week 07: 0 TD

Week 08: 1 TD rush 1 TD rec.

Week 09: 2 TD rush

Week 10: 0 TD

Week 11: 1 TD rush

Week 12: 0 TD

Week 13: 2 TD rush

Week 14: 1 TD rec

Week 15: 0 TD

Week 16: 3 TD rush

Week 17: 1 TD rush

 

So, only 5 scoreless weeks, one of which came off a nasty looking injury where I thought he blew his ACL. He was a definite bench that week. But he did end up playing in Week 2. Let's check '03:

 

Week 01: 1 TD rush 1 TD rec.

Week 02: 1 TD rush

Week 03: 0 TD

Week 05: 1 TD rush

Week 06: 0 TD

Week 07: 2 TD rush

Week 08: 1 TD rec.

Week 09: 1 TD rush

Week 10: 1 TD rush

Week 11: 1 TD rush

Week 12: 0 TD

Week 13: 1 TD rush.

Week 14: 1 TD rush

Week 15: 1 TD rush

Week 16: 2 TD rush

Week 17: 1 TD rush

 

Three scoreless games, one of which was against Baltimore.

 

That is 8 scoreless games in two years. Tomlinson had 6 scoreless games in that same time frame.

Edited July 2, 2005 by CaptainHook

[CaptainHook]

I am sure I am going to get blasted for this but IMO Edge seems overrated to me.  I think his first two years in the league he was awesome...but I just am not hot on this guy.  I know he was injuried and he did have a good year last year, but there are other RB's I would rather have...No offense to any Colt fans!

 

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Really?

 

In his first 38 games Edge was unstoppable. Running, catching, blocking. One of the best players I've EVER seen. 38 games = 3924 rushing yards; 1,373 receiving yards; and 38 TD's. Then he blew out the ACL. He returned to play in only 10 months of rehab. In 14 games that year he put up over 1300 yards of offense. The following year, in only 13 games, he amassed over 1500 yards and 11 TD's. Then last year he puts up 2,031 yards and 9 TD's. 43 games since knee injury = 3,796 yards; 1,129 receiving yards; and 27 TD's. He has improved his stats every year since the injury, which most acknowledge takes two years to fully recover from. He had a career high in yards per carry (4.6) in 2004. You may rather have another RB, but Edge is not overrated.

Edited July 2, 2005 by CaptainHook

[Skrappy1]

SA is definitely even more valuable in leagues where TD's are equal to or more valued than yardage.  I posted this in another thread:

2004

Week 01: 2 TD rush 1 TD rec. (twisted knee at end of game)

Week 02: 0 TD

Week 03: 2 TD rush 1 TD rec.

Week 05: 1 TD rush

Week 06: 1 TD rush

Week 07: 0 TD

Week 08: 1 TD rush 1 TD rec.

Week 09: 2 TD rush

Week 10: 0 TD

Week 11: 1 TD rush

Week 12: 0 TD

Week 13: 2 TD rush

Week 14: 1 TD rec

Week 15: 0 TD

Week 16: 3 TD rush

Week 17: 1 TD rush

 

So, only 5 scoreless weeks, one of which came off a nasty looking injury where I thought he blew his ACL. He was a definite bench that week. But he did end up playing in Week 2. Let's check '03:

 

Week 01: 1 TD rush 1 TD rec.

Week 02: 1 TD rush

Week 03: 0 TD

Week 05: 1 TD rush

Week 06: 0 TD

Week 07: 2 TD rush

Week 08: 1 TD rec.

Week 09: 1 TD rush

Week 10: 1 TD rush

Week 11: 1 TD rush

Week 12: 0 TD

Week 13: 1 TD rush.

Week 14: 1 TD rush

Week 15: 1 TD rush

Week 16: 2 TD rush

Week 17: 1 TD rush

 

Three scoreless games, one of which was against Baltimore.

 

That is 8 scoreless games in two years. Tomlinson had 6 scoreless games in that same time frame.

 

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I absolutely agree that he is more valuable in a TD only type of league, as no doubt Alexander scores a ton of TDs. However, I maintain that his yardage is always up and down, moreso than most premier RBs, not just in 2002, and not just when Holmgren abandons the run. Plus, even if part of the inconsistency is due to Holmgren's habit of ignoring the run, it still is a tangible statistical trend and has to be taken into account from a fantasy perspective. Check out some of these rushing lines from Alexander (some aren't bad YPC-wise, some are, but all are under 80 yards rushing):

 

2004:

 

Week 1 - 17 carries/45 yards

Week 2 - 19 carries/52 yards

Week 6 - 16 carries/77 yards

Week 7 - 12 carries/65 yards

Week 12 - 13 carries/39 yards

Week 15 - 19 carries/77 yards

 

2003:

 

Week 2 - 13 carries/51 yards

Week 3 - 14 carries/58 yards

Week 6 - 22 carries/77 yards

Week 9 - 20 carries/48 yards

Week 12 - 22 carries/72 yards

Week 14 - 14 carries/56 yards

 

2002:

 

Week 1 - 13 carries/36 yards

Week 2 - 17 carries/37 yards

Week 3 - 14 carries/37 yards

Week 7 - 12 carries/30 yards

Week 8 - 23 carries/58 yards

Week 9 - 19 carries/67 yards

Week 10 - 12 carries/42 yards

Week 11 - 11 carries/18 yards

Week 13 - 16 carries/74 yards

Week 16 - 26 carries/79 yards

Week 17 - 15 carries/67 yards

 

Virtually no RB gets 20+ carries week in and week out, but like I noted earlier, Alexander hasn't received less than 11 carries in a game since 2002. It seems to me like most other stud RBs will have more of those games where they get 12 carries and 110 yards due to a long run or something, where Alexander virtually never has games that, and he has more than his relative share of 20 carry/55 yard games.

 

Again, I'm not saying I wouldn't take Alexander on any fantasy team I own...I'm just saying that ultimately I'd like a little more consistent production on a weekly basis from my #1 RB, particularly in a performance scoring league that awards yardage bonuses. In a TD only league, he certainly is a top 3 back, but in a peformance scoring league, I'm not so sure...if you look past his cumulative annual production and see how he amassed that production, it's certainly questionable IMO.

Edited July 2, 2005 by Skrappy1

[Guest THEbigred]

In regards to Neon Deion ... I am not denying that he was good for a couple of years ... but I got tired of seeing defenses not even test his side of the field.  I couldn't tell if he was any good or not because defenses wouldn't try him out.  I know, I know you are going to say they knew he was good ... but I'm here to tell you that when he was in Dallas he was washed up and they still didn't test him.

 

And god forbid you need him to tackle anybody.

 

He was more flash than substance IMO.

 

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Of course. Thank God someone else sees this. Anyway....

 

Topping my overrated "O" list:

 

- Vick

- Walker

- Dom Davis

- Muhammed

- D Clark

- Gates

[CaptainHook]

Again, I'm not saying I wouldn't take Alexander on any fantasy team I own...I'm just saying that ultimately I'd like a little more consistent production on a weekly basis from my #1 RB, particularly in a performance scoring league that awards yardage bonuses.  In a TD only league, he certainly is a top 3 back, but in a peformance scoring league, I'm not so sure...if you look past his cumulative annual production and see how he amassed that production, it's certainly questionable IMO.

 

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What was Alexander's receiving yardage in those games you listed? As an SA owner for three years in a dynasty league, he does seem to make up for his bad rushing yardage weeks with receiving yardage or TD's. Like I said, I agree that his rushing yardage is unpredictable, but at the end of the year, he's always one of the top fantasy backs. He was only one yard from leading the league in rushing last year. . .

[CaptainHook]

I absolutely agree that he is more valuable in a TD only type of league, as no doubt Alexander scores a ton of TDs.  However, I maintain that his yardage is always up and down, moreso than most premier RBs, not just in 2002, and not just when Holmgren abandons the run.  Plus, even if part of the inconsistency is due to Holmgren's habit of ignoring the run, it still is a tangible statistical trend and has to be taken into account from a fantasy perspective.  Check out some of these rushing lines from Alexander (some aren't bad YPC-wise, some are, but all are under 80 yards rushing):

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2004:

 

Week 1 - 17 carries/45 yards (This was Week 2 vs. Tampa after a knee injury.  It was unclear if he would play or not.)

Week 2 - 19 carries/52 yards (Actually Week 3: 4 catches 22 yards; 2 rush TD, 1 TD catch)

Week 6 - 16 carries/77 yards (2 catches 30 yards; 1 rush TD)

Week 7 - 12 carries/65 yards

Week 12 - 13 carries/39 yards

Week 15 - 19 carries/77 yards (4 catches 19 yards)

 

2003:

 

Week 2 - 13 carries/51 yards (2 catches 11 yards; 1 rush TD)

Week 3 - 14 carries/58 yards

Week 6 - 22 carries/77 yards (3 catches 46 yards)

Week 9 - 20 carries/48 yards (3 catches 19 yards; 1 rush TD)

Week 12 - 22 carries/72 yards (vs. Baltimore)

Week 14 - 14 carries/56 yards (1 catch 8 yards; 1 rush TD)

 

OK, I looked it up. If you notice, Alexander generally makes up for his "bad" games by scoring TD's or having receiving yardage.

Edited July 2, 2005 by CaptainHook

[Nate Dawg]

What was Alexander's receiving yardage in those games you listed?  As an SA owner for three years in a dynasty league, he does seem to make up for his bad rushing yardage weeks with receiving yardage or TD's.  Like I said, I agree that his rushing yardage is unpredictable, but at the end of the year, he's always one of the top fantasy backs.  He was only one yard from leading the league in rushing last year. . .

 

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I think this is what has always frustrated many owners and why I've tended to stay away from Alexander. Last year, this was his weekly scoring in my local.

 

TP 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Alexander 319 36 5 27 B 22 17 7 34 28 19 16 4 24 20 10 34 16

 

Alexander had 4 of 16 weeks where he scored 10 or fewer.

LT had 0 weeks where he scored 10 or fewer (did have a couple of low teens) - DNP Week 17.

Edge - 0 weeks of 10 or fewer - DNP Week 17.

Portis - 5 weeks of 10 or fewer & DNP Week 17 (not counted in the 5 weeks).

McCallister - 4 weeks out of 14 where he scored 10 or fewer (DNP 2 weeks w/ injury)

Tiki - 2 weeks with 10 or fewer.

 

That's just a few RBs I looked at. Priest's lowest score while healthy was 13. It just seems the number of times Alexander scores in single digits (or 10) is on the high side of top tier RBs. Looking at it further, Alexander had 2 games of 10 or fewer in 2003 and 5 games of 10 or fewer in 2002. 2003 was obviously his most consistent year.

 

I totally agree that he is one of the top scoring backs year to year, but the fact that you never know when he'll have that big week tends to keep me away.

[BigTen]

Woodson made 4 straight pro bowls to begin his career, and spent time on the injured list in years 5 and 6. He's been on the downturn since, but I wouldn't say he's over-rated. He's simply not rated anywhere right now in the list of elite corners or as a fantasy IDP.

 

But if i had to have a corner guard a top-notch WR in a high-stakes game, I'd still take a healthy C-Wood over the likes of Champ, Law, Clements or Winfield.

 

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I do not care how many pro-bowls he made, the guy is overrated. He guts burned a lot and made pro-bowls strictly on his college accomplishemnts IMHO.

[Shotgun Messiahs]

I hate to admit this, but Michael Bennett has always been overrated IMO.

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That's why he holds and NFL record of his own right now.

[Primetime9287]

I'll throw Santana Moss, Laverneus Coles and Steve McNair into the mix.

 

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McNair? Why, because of last year? Gimme a BREAK! McNair is an absolute warrior on the football field. His legacy will go way beyond the numbers he put up. If you are talking about fantasy, he was only a star 1 or maybe 2 years. But when you are talking about the NFL in general, McNair is awesome. He plays through injuries that nobody else would even think to play through, with the exception of maybe Brett Favre.

[Glabra]

He guts burned a lot and made pro-bowls strictly on his college accomplishemnts IMHO.

 

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The NFL reeaallly gives a rat's a$$ about guys' college resumes after like their first day of summer 2-a-days.

[Roy Returns]

Todd Marinovich...

 

 

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[BigTen]

The NFL reeaallly gives a rat's a$$ about guys' college resumes after like their first day of summer 2-a-days. 

 

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My point is that most "fans" vote that way. I see that no matter what, you think CW is not overrated while I do.

[Ruffian]

Overrated--Kordell Stewart.

[Ruffian]

OVERRATED--RYAN LEAF