The Misfit

Ah, before heading out to watch the Bengals upset the Steelers today I felt like responding to this (my first post in 26 years), a point of view that's been echoed at the huddle for so long everyone is convinced it's so correct you're stupid for thinking otherwise, as the mocking responses indicate. All information is relevant in making any decision. The classic example is the Monty Hall Problem, which wiki explains pretty well: Monty Hall Problem. In short, the correct answer is against all "common sense" -- the huddle corollary of Always Choose the Player You Think Will Score the Most Points. You are presented with 3 doors to choose a prize, and you think the car is behind Door #1, so that's the door you pick. Monty opens Door #2, and you are given a chance to switch your pick to Door #3. It is to your mathematical advantage to always switch your pick. What you are being told here is "Pick the door that you think has the car behind it -- duh." So you would never switch, because you obviously think the car is behind the door you picked first. That's the wrong answer. All information matters when you do not know the outcome. Heck, I'll consider my opponent's lineup, which games are nationally televised, or pick against any player ESPN did a weepy human-interest story about, whatever. When you are making a guess, there is no such thing as irrelevant information. Does this mean you'll always be right? Of course not. But you'll be right more often than the guy who picks Door #1 and sticks with it because that's the door he thinks the car is behind. It also makes it a bit more fun. Do you play poker? Ask a poker player if he only makes decisions based on "playing the hands that have the best chance of winning." If he does do that, he's a poor poker player -- but he probably thinks he's really smart, and just has bad luck sometimes. Have a great football Sunday, Huddlers! Good night, spain, wherever you are!

This explains a lot about the Bengals the past two years, if true ... From the Cincinnati Enquirer: During an appearance earlier this week at the Central Maryland Browns Backers meeting, Cleveland defensive lineman Shaun Smith, a former Bengals backup and member of the 2005 AFC North Division champion Bengals, said that wide receiver Chad Johnson punched head coach Marvin Lewis at halftime of the Bengals' 31-17 wild-card playoff loss to the Steelers Jan. 8, 2006. The video of Smith's talk on YouTube is no longer available. Reportedly, Smith called the event organizer and told him to remove it. A transcript has circulated on the Internet: "He swung on Marvin. (Johnson) shattered the training room glass. He swung on Marvin (and) hit Marvin in the eye. Then he tried to swing on wide receivers coach Hue Jackson, who's now in Baltimore." Bengals public relations director Jack Brennan said the club had no comment on the video.

From what I've seen of the debates, I think this is exactly Billary's position. She's tough and strong and wears the pantsuits and will not be swift-boated. I think she is trying to make the point that she knows via 35 years of experience that Republicans are evil, and she will eat them alive. Omaba is naive and lives in a fairy tale, and the Republicans will eat him alive. And I think that's part of this rhetorical "change" message of Obama. Polarization isn't working; "old politics" is so 19th-century. And yes, I do think it requires an act of faith as to whether you believe he can change it. A Vince Lombari quote: Coaches who can outline plays on a black board are a dime a dozen. The ones who win get inside their players and motivate. I see Obama motivating young people, if nothing else, and that, at least at this early part of the race, seems to set him apart from the field.

I'm pretty sure it's all about ad revenue. Sunday is the heaviest TV-watching night, and the SB commands the highest ad dollars. Moving to Saturday would likely cost them (network/nfl) millions.

I'd read somewhere that Rush said if Huckabee or McCain were the nominee he'll quit the Republican party, or the party will self-destruct, or something like that. Best endorsement of McCain I've heard yet.

I was trying to find a quote from this year where Palmer was saying CJ can't run routes and has no skills besides his speed ... and I learned that "Palmer Johnson" makes luxury yachts. I had no idea. I do think there is a big rift between CJ and Palmer. And Marvin Lewis stopped being honest with the press after John Madden repeated something he shouldn't have a couple years ago ... heck, Lewis was telling the local media that there would be no coaching changes right up until they fired the defensive coordinator (I believe the Columbus paper broke the story). I just think CJ's whining, as well as Palmer's statements about needing to make some changes, both kinda stem from a relationship that has grown very sour. So, I think anything could happen. I'm hoping they can hug it out in the offseason. If not ... well, if he can keep his nose clean, I could see Chris Henry stepping into Ocho Cinco's shoes pretty easily ... And I think that's part of CJ's unhappiness, too.

I've voted in every POTUS election since 1980, and I've never voted for the winner ... (and I'm rather proud of that, actually). 1. Obama - He just cleans up so well. 2. McCain - I can't stop loving this guy, for many reasons. And I think the fact that so many Republicans seem to hate him is another big plus. 3. Edwards - Yeah, he's a phony, but so is everyone else after him on this list. I'm a sucker for populists. 4. Richardson - I don't think he'd do much, but after Dubya, I see that as a plus. 5. Rudi - I think it was Biden who said every sentence out of his mouth is a noun, a verb, and 9/11. I don't trust the guy, but at least he likes a tasty morsel, and it would be nice to have a president again who appreciates the beaver. 6. Hillary - See Rudi (above). 7. Huckabee - He'd be much higher if he wasn't insane. 8. Paul - See Huckabee (above). 9. Thompson - TV stars just aren't nearly as effective at policy as movie stars. 10. Romney - Had him higher until I saw him at the top of Swerski's list.

Anyone catch Paul on Leno last night? Leno made him look pretty bad without trying very hard. I'm not gonna bother going into details, but it's probably on utube if you want to watch it. Only diehard Paul supporters could have watched that and thought "I want that man to be my president." He looked very, um, Ross Perot-like. Jay Leno is much better without his writers. He's a much more aggressive interviewer off the cuff. I'm sure Hillary has a focus group somewhere that says "35" is a magical number. Since it's the minimum age to be president, it probably is supposed to sound presidential to people.

i think the pols (and polls) are possibly missing something with Huckabee's victory. I don't think all of his support is simply rooted in the evangelicals (although that is much of it). To me, besides rejecting the Republican Old Boys network, he's a genuinely likable guy with a quick wit and sincerity that reminds me a little of Reagan (only funnier). While I don't agree with him and would never vote for him, I was impressed earlier with his willingness to go onto hostile TV shows like Bill Maher and the Daily Show and not only stand up for what he believes, as absurd as it may be to that crowd, but still make a hostile crowd laugh. There's a certain personal integrity there I respect. I agree also with McCain loving the outcome in Iowa (as every pol is saying today). And Huckabee probably doesn't have a chance, but methinks it's too early to rule him out. I think he has appeal for other reasons, namely his personality, his ability to communicate, and his disassociation from the folks who brought you George Bush and son. I'm honeslty saying as a lib who can't stand the thought of having a president who does not believe in evolution ... I find Mike a very likeable guy. All that propaganda that Fox News and the Republicans tried to paint Dubya as having in terms of likeability and being a "regular guy" ... Huckabee really has it. I'd have a Near Beer with the guy and enjoy it a great deal.

Dude, your self-pity would have a whole lot more impact if you were not sporting a "No Kornheiser" avi. Seriously. When I was growing up, all our sports announcers were drunk most of the time ... and we loved 'em anyway, much in the same way you love your bartender: He's bringing me somthing I like. All the wasted space on this board about "I don't like this announcer" and "This guy needs to be fired" and "This guy can't do his job" ... Um, if you're gonna support that kind of stupid, self-absorbed and pointless diatribe against people you don't know simply because the innernets give you the ability to do so, you don't have much room to complain when it's thrown back in your face.

1. What was your draft position and who did you draft? Second - LT (SJax went first, team finished last) 2. What was your regular season record? 12-2 3. What seed were you in your playoffs? First 4. How many players did you start in your SB that you actually drafted and who are they? I think this is a first, but all but the defense and kicker, so, 7 -- see below 5. What were the key free agent moves you made? Picked up Favre when someone dropped him early in the season 6. What were the key trades you made? This league rarely trades, so, none 7. What was the line up you started in the SB? Hasselbeck, LT, Jacobs, Wayne, B Edwards, Lee Evans, Gonzo (all drafted), Kaeding, Cards D

Well, it's past 3 a.m. now, I live about 15 miles from PBS, and it's drizzling and 50 and not much wind at all. Airport reports 14 mph winds. Fwiwtsm, local forecast says it will be breezy around game time as the cold front moves in with the winds picking up in the evening. That wind advisory covers a good part of the midwest and south, from Chicago down to Louisiana and up to Cleveland.

Some pretty good polemics have come out in the past few months that I may suggest, arguing about failed economic policies, which of course ties in with poverty and race and all that dander. "The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism" is about why Milton Friedman was a punk, the Chicago school of Economics is the source of most evil in the world, and corporations and Republicans have conspired over the years to ruin the country. It's a great read for a lib, and pretty well researched, argued and footnoted. The kinda book that would make all his marching and stuff feel even further vindicated. Paul Krugman from the NY Times published a book a couple of months ago called "The Conscience of a Liberal." Where the book above deals mostly with the time from Reagan, Krugman goes back about 80 years or so, and argues that policies of FDR and our response to WWII were great things for this country until about 1970 when it all started going to hell. Krugman makes liberals happy to be liberals. Krugman also wrote a forward for a newly published version of a liberal classic from 1936: "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" by John Maynard Keynes. Of course, I wouldn't rule out Steven Colbert's "I Am America (And So Can You!)" just because it has the text of his speech at the press club dinner for Bush, which every liberal loves. If you want more of a coffee table book, "The Sixties: Photographs by Robert Altman" is something he might enjoy. How about a DVD box set? Almost all libs love Ken Burns. Something like "American Lives" he'd probably love, especially "Unforgivable Blackness" which I think may be one of the best things Burns has ever done: It's about Jack Johnson, the first black heavyweight boxing champion. It's riveting, and has much to say about racism in America. The other lives are good, too: Jefferson, Lewis & Clark, Frank Lloyd Wright, Mark Twin, Susan B. Anthony.

This really has nothing to do with football, and McNair is not charged with a crime, and it sounds like the testimony is from drug-addled strippers who may be less than credible. Bur really, when you have the chance to read about strippers, lesbian rape, and accusations of having sex with an NFL QB in an airport bathroom ... Well, as a wise former mayor of Cincinnati once said, "Take care of yourself, and each other." From the Cincinnati Enquirer: BATAVIA – The trial of a Clermont County woman charged with raping a Warren County woman who worked for her as an exotic dancer included testimony that dragged in the names of a professional wrestler now featured in Playgirl magazine and an NFL quarterback who was in Cincinnati last year to play the Bengals. Judge Jerry R. McBride of Common Pleas Court listened to explicit testimony at the Clermont County Courthouse during the two-day trial this week. McBride said he will rule on the case Dec. 21. Prosecutor Don White said that in his 19 years in office he couldn’t recall any other Clermont County rape case involving two women. Defendant Tracey N. Adkins, 28, testified Tuesday that she had consensual oral sex with a 20-year-old dancer whose stage name is Summer. The Enquirer isn’t publishing her real name because of the nature of the allegations. The dancer claimed she was raped Dec. 7 of last year in a home owned by professional wrestler Sean Casey, police said. Baltimore Ravens quarterback Steve McNair’s name was mentioned repeatedly during testimony, though he isn’t alleged to have been involved in any crime. Summer testified she flirted with McNair about the time of the alleged rape. The defense tried to discredit Summer by calling a witness who testified that the dancer had actually had sex with McNair. Casey and Adkins live together in the Willowville neighborhood of Union Township, police said. Adkins said Casey is her fiancé. She is the general manager of Naughty Bodies, a Mount Carmel company that provides dancers for parties, Adkins testified. While pictures of her appear on the company Web site, she isn’t a dancer. Casey, 35, owns Naughty Bodies, Adkins said. An exotic dancer, he is featured as the “Hot Man of the Month” in the January issue of Playgirl magazine, which was released Tuesday. Adkins said Summer was paid by Casey to dance that night. Police said the amount was $100. The music was from a pornographic video. Both Adkins and Summer testified that Casey was on a couch with them when the women had sex. “I asked Sean, ‘What the hell are you guys doing to me? Make her stop. Why are you doing this?’ ” said Summer, who lives in Morrow. Casey didn’t have sex with her or force her to do anything, Summer said in response to questions from Assistant Prosecutor Bill Ferris. Summer said Adkins alternated between having oral sex with her and having intercourse with Casey, who had a broken leg in a cast. Oral sex can be considered rape under Ohio law. “I just remember being completely freaked out,” Summer testified. “I was asking Sean for help, and he said, ‘I told you she’s the freak – not me.’ ” Then Adkins asked, “ ‘Don’t you want to see the sexiest couple in Cincinnati’ ” enjoy themselves? Summer testified. Adkins, who is free on her own recognizance, is charged with three counts of rape and one count of corrupting another with drugs. If found guilty, she could be sentenced to up to 10 years in prison on each rape charge and up to eight years on the drug charge. On Monday, Summer testified that Adkins had forced her to take ecstasy, a hallucinogenic stimulant. The drug left her unable to resist, Summer said. Adkins denied that on the witness stand Tuesday. The same week Summer claimed she was raped, the dancer was reprimanded by Adkins over allegations that Summer had sex with a Naughty Bodies client, Adkins testified. Summer was told she would be fired if someone reported such behavior again because it could expose the company to prostitution charges, Adkins said. Another dancer told her she witnessed Summer have sex with McNair, the Baltimore Ravens quarterback, in a restroom stall at Lunken Airport in Cincinnati, Adkins testified. Andrea Jordan Harris, 31, of Delhi Township testified Tuesday that she rode in a limousine with Summer and McNair and later witnessed them have sex. Harris, whose stage name is Alex, used to be a dancer for Naughty Bodies. She said a third dancer and two other professional athletes were in the car. In the limo, “she was all over him,” Harris said of Summer and McNair. “He kept telling her he was married.” Later, in the restroom, “I heard some banging,” Harris said. “I looked over the stall to make sure nothing bad was happening to her.… It was her and … Steve McNair in the stall having sex.” Under questioning from defense attorney R. Scott Croswell III, Summer denied having sex with McNair. She said she rode in a limo with McNair to an airport and that he had asked for her phone number. “I have never been in a bathroom with Steve McNair,” Summer testified. “I talked to him. He’s a pretty cool guy. Go Ravens!” The Ravens lost to the Bengals, 13-7, in Cincinnati on Nov. 30, 2006. “I never took any clothing off,” Summer said of the night she was with McNair. “The other girls were dancing in the limo. And well, if you can’t stand, how can you dance? I wasn’t dancing.” McNair, 34, who underwent surgery this week for a dislocated shoulder and torn rotator cuff suffered in the Ravens’ loss to the Bengals on Nov. 11, 2007, couldn’t be reached for comment. “Is there a possibility that somebody used Steve McNair’s name?” said Kevin Byrne, senior vice president for public relations for the Baltimore Ravens. “Our schedule is very filled when we’re on the road. It’s a business trip for us. We don’t give players much free time.” James “Bus” Cook, the agent for McNair, said “it easily could have been mistaken identity.” “I don’t for one minute believe the woman’s allegations against him,” Cook said. Croswell, the defense attorney, told the judge in closing arguments that Summer hadn’t been truthful. Summer said she had arrived at the home of Casey and Adkins about 3 a.m. and left about 8 a.m., testified Sgt. Jeff Brown of the Union Township police. The dancer contacted police about 6 p.m. Croswell reminded the judge that Summer didn’t call police during the five hours she was at the home – though Summer had claimed she sent text messages on her cell phone to at least 10 people. “I said, ‘This girl is chasing me and trying to do me,’ ”Summer testified. “ ‘Help me, somebody.’ ” No text messages were found by police, Croswell said. “She’s lying, and there is no corroboration,” Croswell told the judge. “You know as well as I do if she had those text messages on her phone they’d be here in court – if that really took place.”

I'm in pretty much the exact same situation in one of my leagues -- four teams are set, I'm currently the #1 seed. We have three divisions, one division is very weak -- a sub-.500 team will make the playoffs -- while the wildcard team, which by definition is the #4 seed, is a very strong team. By contrast, in another league I am tied for the best record in the league, but the team I am tied with is in my division and he won the tiebreaker -- so, I end up being a number 3 seed with no bye (6 teams in the playoffs in this league), while the team that gets the #2 seed and the bye is 7-6 (I'm 10-3). So ... What is "ethical"? Ethics are not in a vacuum -- clearly, where you throw a game that negatively or positively impacts on another team, that's clearly wrong. But what if there no impact on another team, either financially or from a playoff standpoint? There are "unfair" outcomes simply created by the system itself (see my second example). I guess my point is this situation is in part set up by a rather aribtrary playoff system in which the team that should be the #2 seed is relegated to #4 seed by a rule involving playoff seedings and division winners. Is it still unethical to try to "correct" that by tanking a game? The number one seed should be playing the weakest team in the playoffs, should it not? The two best teams in the league should not be playing in the first round of the playoffs. (I doubt I will do it ... I fear the fantasy gods and mojo and all that stuff, too. But I don't see it as unethical to tank when it only effects playoff seeds, especially when those seeds are generally based on arbitrary rules involving division winners.)