kroyrunner89

* Bears/Panthers UNDER 33 (-104 @ Pinnacle) I told myself coming into this week that I wasn’t going to pick particularly high or low totals anymore unless it was a special circumstance. Of course, this week we see one of these special circumstances fall right on our lap. No Steve Smith for the Panthers immediately takes one of their best offensive weapons out of the mix, which means that the Bears don’t have to commit an extra man to him on a double team and can now focus on stacking the box and stopping the run. While I’m not convinced they’re the elite run defense we think they are, they’ll definitely be able to do enough to slow down the Carolina rushing game which quite frankly hasn’t been anything special so far this year. For the Bears, no Jay Cutler pretty much eliminates the quick scoring threat immediately. Collins doesn’t have the arm to heave the ball downfield, and we’ll probably see a lot more dump off passes to Forte or short routes in what will certainly be a very conservative offensive plan. Chicago is 5th worst in yards per rush attempt, Carolina is 5th best in yards per rush attempt allowed, there won’t be much of a ground game for the Bears and this will be a very low scoring game. * Bills/Jaguars OVER 40.5 (-108 @ Pinnacle) This game features two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The Bills return a couple defenders to the lineup, but Terrence McGee still won’t be on the field which will allow the Jaguars to get everything they want and more through the air in this one. Buffalo hasn’t been great throwing the ball, but ever since Fitzpatrick came into the lineup for the Bills they’ve shown a little more explosiveness. Jacksonville is last in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed, so Buffalo should be able to keep up enough on the scoreboard to have a real shot at winning in the end, pushing the total over in the process. * Bengals/Bucs UNDER 38 (-105 @ Pinnacle) Before we get too excited about Carson Palmer’s improvement last week, let’s remember that 78 yards and a touchdown of that were pretty flukey as the defender covering Owens fell down. That would leave the Bengals with 335 total yards of offense and 13 points, the same Bengals I’ve always known. This week they face a Tampa Bay defense that is better against the pass than the Browns, and while the Bucs struggle more against the run we could likely see a lot more action on the ground as the Bengals try to establish Cedric Benson’s presence in the game. Throw in the Bucs having two weeks to prepare for this game and I think the Bengals’ offense is reasonably limited once again. For the Bucs, they’re up against another tough defense as Cinci is 7th best in yards per pass attempt allowed. Tampa has struggled running the ball, and likely won’t be able to get much going against the Bengals in that phase of the game either. Look for this one to stay low scoring as both offenses have trouble getting things going. * San Diego Chargers -6 (-110 @ Pinnacle) * Chargers/Raiders UNDER 45 (-109 @ Pinnacle) I hate picking heavy public favorites like the Chargers as I always feel like I’m walking into a trap, but there’s too much to like about their situation this week to stay away. For starters, the Chargers boast the #2 passing defense and #11 rushing defense, by far they’ll be the toughest defense Oakland has faced yet. Gradkowski and the Raiders haven’t done great through the air, as they’re 6th worst in the NFL in yards per pass attempt. Their passing game will be very limited in this game, and they’re going to have to hope that they can run the ball effectively to have any chance of offense. The Chargers’ biggest problem so far has been killing themselves with mistakes and turnovers, something that would certainly bode well for our under should they do that here. Their other issue has been vulnerability in the return game, but Oakland has been nothing special in this phase of the game and shouldn’t be able to take advantage of that weakness. Oakland won’t score many points in this one, I’d be shocked if they topped 17. That means we need 23 points at most out of the Chargers for them to cover, which should be well within their reach as they are #1 in yards per pass attempt, #10 in yards per rush attempt, and face the worst run defense in the NFL. If the Chargers fail to cover it’s because they made too many mistakes and didn’t score enough, if the total goes over it’s because they blew the Raiders out. We’re looking at a 1-1 split at worst, but I think we have a great chance at 2-0 and will gladly risk eating some juice for that opportunity. * Eagles/49ers UNDER 38 (-105 @ Pinnacle) We all remember the 49ers Monday night game against the Saints a couple weeks ago and how good they looked. Of course, we all expect to see that again now as they’re in a must win game at home against the depleted Eagles offense. Well, I’m on board, at least for their level of play on the defensive side of the ball. The Eagles have a very suspect offensive line, and without Vick their offense lacks the explosiveness it once had. The 49ers limited Brees and the Saints a couple weeks ago, and I fully expect them to do the same to the Eagles here in this game. On the offensive side of the ball however, they’re facing an Eagles defense that is much better than the Saints defense they faced a few weeks ago. We see now the Saints are 9th worst in the NFL against the pass and 9th worst against the run, while the Eagles still do struggle to stop the run (12th worst in the NFL), they excel against the pass as they’re 4th best in the league. Alex Smith has been terrible so far this season, and will continue to struggle against an aggressive Eagles defense that will force him into a couple mistakes and very much limit their offense. While it’s very easy to see either team covering in this game, it’s going to wind up being a defensive struggle, giving us an easy under. I may be back with a Monday night pick, I’m going to wait and get official status on Revis and Pace first. But that’s all for Sunday, good luck everyone!

Week 5 Lines: Broncos +7 @ Ravens 38.5 Jaguars PK @ Bills 41 Chiefs +8 @ Colts 45 Rams +3 @ Lions 42.5 Falcons -3 @ Browns 40.5 Bucs +6.5 @ Bengals 38 Bears -3 @ Panthers 35 Packers -2.5 @ Redskins 44 Giants +3 @ Texans 47.5 Saints -6.5 @ Cardinals 45 Chargers -6 @ Raiders 45 Titans +6.5 @ Cowboys 41.5 Eagles +3 @ 49ers 38 Vikings +4 @ Jets 39 Good luck this week everyone!

* Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-114 @ Pinnacle) * Steelers/Ravens UNDER 34 (-103 @ Pinnacle) Before the season started the last thing I would have expected would've been for the Steelers to be opening the year 4-0 without Roethlisberger. However, it looks like there's a very high chance of that becoming a reality after this weekend. The Ravens enter this contest with some questions on offense, first and foremost the status of Ray Rice. While he's expected to play, how effective will he be with his injured knee? Baltimore is only running the ball for 3.14 yards per carry right now, 4th worst in the league, and with their star RB at less than 100% and against the stout Pittsburgh defense I can't see them mustering much production on the ground. As far as their passing game goes, it's been less than impressive so far this season, with their best numbers this season coming last week against a Cleveland defense that's nowhere near as good as the Steelers'. In their first two games, matched up with the Jets and Bengals, Flacco struggled handling the pressure these two defensive units put on him and he made mistakes as a result. With a Pittsburgh offense that's just as good, if not better than both of these defenses, I expect to see Flacco struggle again as the Ravens' offense fails to produce many points. On Pittsburgh's side of the ball, their defense has been the big story so far this season. However, their offense has quietly done just enough to win games, even with their 4th string QB Charlie Batch running the offense. Rashard Mendenhall has been very effective running the ball for the Steelers, as Pittsburgh is 6th in the NFL with 4.69 yards per rush attempt. While Baltimore has the reputation of an elite run defense, their performance hasn't indicated it so far this year. Baltimore's defense is allowing a surprising 4.73 yards per carry, 7th worst in the league. This indicates to me that Mendenhall will still be able to produce on the ground this week for the Steelers, a very important aspect in this game as the Steelers then won't be forced to ask as much of their QB. Furthermore, while Baltimore's pass defense has actually held up alright so far, there are still issues in that secondary. We may see Mike Wallace get free for a big play much like last week against Tampa Bay, but overall I do think that Batch will struggle a bit against this defense and the big plays will be limited. This will stay a low scoring game, with both defenses bearing down and playing good football. However, I just see Pittsburgh with a better chance to generate offense and force Flacco into mistakes with their elite defense. Steelers should win this one and cruise to their 4-0 start. * Cleveland Browns +3 (-121 @ Pinnacle) It's very strange to me to be picking the Browns rather than against them for once, however I love their chances in this situation. The Bengals are currently one of the most overrated teams in football in my opinion. Their offense is nothing special at all, and Carson Palmer's current level of play is making it look like he's lucky to be a starter. The Bengals currently have the 8th worst passing game and 6th worst running game in the NFL, and the Browns' defense may not be great, but it's definitely on the rise from where it was last year. While Palmer has only thrown three interceptions so far this year, he really should have thrown about 10 now as defenders keep dropping easy interceptions. Palmer will continue making these bad decisions, and sooner or later his luck is going to run out. I think this is that week, and he turns the ball over at least two times against this improved Cleveland defense. On Cleveland's side of the ball, while it's uncertain who will be starting at QB for them this week I don't think it really makes much of a difference as both Delhomme and Wallace play at a very similar level. I think the real area that the Browns can excel at offense though this week is running the ball. Peyton Hillis has been running the ball great so far this year, as he's running for 5.6 yards per carry. The Browns finally got him more involved in the offense last week, giving him 22 carries for 144 yards. Matched up this week against the Bengals, I think we could see another game in the vicinity of 150 yards for Hillis, as the Bengals are allowing 4.5 yards per carry on defense, 10th worst in the league. The Browns will be able to move the ball on the Bengals, and given that Cinci has a habit of playing down to the level of their opponents I think there's a great chance the Browns win this game outright. I'm still mulling over a Monday night play, I'll post it up tomorrow if I decide on it. Good luck this week everyone!

Week 4 Lines: Broncos +6.5 @ Titans 42.5 Ravens +1 @ Steelers 34.5 Bengals -3 @ Browns 37 Lions +14.5 @ Packers 46 Panthers +13.5 @ Saints 44.5 49ers +6.5 @ Falcons 42.5 Seahawks -1 @ Rams 40 Jets -5 @ Bills 36.5 Colts -9 @ Jaguars 46 Texans -3 @ Raiders 43 Cardinals +9 @ Chargers 45 Redskins +6 @ Eagles 43 Bears +4 @ Giants 44.5 Patriots -1 @ Dolphins 46.5

* Baltimore Ravens -10.5 (-109 @ Pinnacle) The Ravens' offense has struggled so far this season, but returning home against a very mediocre Browns team is just what they need. In the first two games the Ravens have played two of the better defense in the league, the Jets and the Bengals. The Browns' defense is nowhere near this level, and this week on the road at Baltimore will really be their first challenge of the season. I think we're going to see a big boost in the Ravens' offensive numbers this week since they're returning home rather than playing on the road. Last season, the Ravens scored about 10 points per game more at home, and the defense allowed about 9 points per game less. I feel like this is a setup for the Ravens to finally break out and put 3+ touchdowns on the board, scoring anywhere from 24-34 points. As for their defense, it's been stifling so far as their banged up secondary has yet to really be exposed. They've been able to generate a good amount of pressure on the QB, and their run defense remains the strongest part of the unit. The Browns are clearly a run first team with their lack of threats in the passing game on offense, and their inability to run against the Ravens on Sunday will force them to start throwing more than they like. Whether it's Delhomme or Wallace at QB for them, this is not a threatening passing game and they will struggle scoring points all afternoon. The ceiling for this Browns offense on Sunday is probably about 13 points, with that leaving only 24 required of the Ravens I feel like we should have an easy win here. I expect a 27-10 victory for the Ravens. * Steelers/Bucs UNDER 33.5 (-110 @ Pinnacle) While this is one of the lower totals I've seen in a while, it's set this low with good reason. The Steelers enter their third game of the season once again without Ben Roethlisberger, and with both Leftwich and Dixon hurt they turn to their final QB Charlie Batch. The Pittsburgh passing game has been abysmal this season no matter who's at QB, and Batch certainly brings nothing new to the table that will help this offense score points. Facing a Bucs defense that was one of the worst in the league at stopping the run in 2009, the Steelers will likely look to attack on the ground for the majority of the game and ask as little of Batch as possible. While this strategy will certainly keep the clock moving, I don't expect it to work out great for them. The Bucs defense has shown big signs of improvement this season, as they held a powerful Carolina rushing attack under 4 yards per carry last week. With the Pittsburgh offensive line still in a state of flux, I think the Steelers will struggle keeping drives alive and wind up being forced to punt more times than not. As for their defense - it looks like it's back in a big way. They've shut down two very powerful offenses so far this season in the Titans and Falcons, and the Bucs look to be a step in the easier direction for them. Tampa Bay has also shown improvement on the offensive side of the ball, with Freeman handling himself much better thus far this season. However, the big plays they've been relying on from WR Mike Williams and TE Kellen Winslow won't be as readily available against this Pittsburgh defense (6th in yards per pass attempt allowed), and their rushing game which has been 9th worst in the NFL so far will be smothered by Pittsburgh's 4th ranked rushing defense. I don't see how either team is going to be able to generate points in this contest, and we should have ourselves a very low scoring game, with the winner taking it 13-10. * Jaguars/Eagles OVER 44.5 (-113 @ Pinnacle) The big storyline in this game is the Eagles' decision to make Michael Vick their starter for the rest of the season. While it's certainly a controversial decision, I consider it to be the right one. Vick brings so much more to the table than Kolb does, especially his mobility as the Eagles' offensive line is very weak this year. Vick's scampering ability allows the Eagles to keep drives alive even when their receivers can't get open, and he's shown very good decision making thus-far as he hasn't been turning the ball over. The Eagles face a Jacksonville pass defense this week that looks to be one of the worst in the league yet again. They've been getting minimal pressure on opposing QBs, and are allowing a whopping 9.1 yards per pass attempt. We should see Vick perform well once again this week, as when he's not finding the big plays down the field he's creating them with his legs. For the Jaguars, while last week's offensive showing was disappointing there were some positives to be taken from it. Jacksonville had absolutely no problem moving the ball on the San Diego defense, their biggest issue was that they turned the ball over six times. I expect the Jaguars to do a much better job of taking care of the ball in this game, and with the Eagles keying in on stopping Maurice Jones-Drew I think that Garrard can lead the offense well enough to give the Jaguars a shot at stealing this game. I think these teams put on an offensive show and the over comes through, with whoever has the ball last possibly winning the game. * Chiefs/49ers UNDER 37 (-101 @ Pinnacle) Let's start with the Chiefs' offense here. KC has been very fortunate to get off to a 2-0 start so far this season because their passing game has been borderline non-existent. Cassel has thrown for an abysmal 4.5 yards per pass attempt, and as a result of his shotty passing the Chiefs have converted only 23.1% of 3rd downs, third worst in the NFL. The strength of this KC team has been running the ball, unfortunately for the Chiefs they're matched up against the run stopping 49ers. The biggest threat in the Chiefs' offense is clearly Jamaal Charles, yet for some reason Thomas Jones continues to get more carries than him and all indications are that this pattern will continue. The Chiefs will likely have trouble establishing the run in this contest, and if forced to turn to Cassel and the passing game things will get no better. When examining the 49ers offense, it's a bit tougher to figure out what to make of them. While they struggled on the road in Week 1 against the Seahawks, they came home Monday night and put forth a much better offensive effort against the Saints, moving the ball with ease. Ultimately, a few dumb mistakes and unlucky breaks kept them from winning that game, and cost them points on the scoreboard. In Seattle, there was talk that in that game the 49ers had trouble getting their plays in on time and struggled with the noise. At Arrowhead this week, that's again a similar area of concern as it's a very tough stadium to play in. I think we're going to see something similar out of the 49ers this week as they struggle to get the run going and then find themselves in more 3rd and long situations like they were in Week 1. Given that the 49ers are fifth worst in the league with a 25% conversion ratio on 3rd downs, I think we'll also see quite a few drives out of them that fizzle out without putting points on the scoreboard. I think both offenses will struggle in this one, with the winner coming out with a 17-13 win. I've probably eliminated enough people so far with my shotty survivor picks, but for anyone still alive and still interested I think the Ravens are a great play and so are the Patriots. That's all for this week, good luck to everyone!

Back to it this week, public got hammered in Week 2 but Week 3 is a new week! Here are the lines: Titans +3 @ Giants 42.5 Bills +13 @ Patriots 42 Browns +10.5 @ Ravens 37 Steelers -2.5 @ Bucs 33 (This is the lowest total I've ever seen) Bengals -3 @ Panthers 38.5 Falcons +4 @ Saints 49.5 49ers -1.5 @ Chiefs 36 Lions +10.5 @ Vikings 41.5 Cowboys +3 @ Texans 47.5 Redskins -3.5 @ Rams 38 Eagles -3 @ Jaguars 44.5 Colts -6 @ Broncos 48 Chargers -5.5 @ Seahawks 43.5 Raiders +4 @ Cardinals 40 Jets +2 @ Dolphins 34.5 Packers -3 @ Bears 45.5 Good luck this week everyone!

* Minnesota/Miami UNDER 39.5 (-110 @ Pinnacle) Miami's offense struggled on the road last week against a Buffalo defense that really isn't very good, and things get no easier for them this week as they travel to Minnesota and face one of the better defenses in the NFL. The running game has been the normal focus of attack for the Dolphins on offense, however matched up against one of the best run defenses in the NFL this week I don't see them being able to generate much production on the ground. This means that Henne will have to air the ball out against an injured Minnesota secondary, with the lack of chemistry he's shown so far with Brandon Marshall I don't think there's much of a threat of this offense finding many explosive plays. Griffin and Cook are both listed as questionable for this weekend, obviously if one or both of them play it helps our cause for the under, however even without them I think that points will be tough to come by in this one for the Dolphins. On Minnesota's side of the ball, Favre will continue to adjust to life without Sydney Rice as he tries to develop some kind of chemistry with the other receivers. Adrian Peterson will be a threat as always, however the Minnesota offensive line hasn't shown me much recently and I think it's going to limit what the Vikings can do this year much more than last. The Miami defense looked improved last week against the Bills, and I think should be able to slow down the Minnesota attack enough to give themselves a shot at being in this game late. I don't think either team finds the end-zone more than twice, this game should end under the total without much problem. * Dallas Cowboys -7 (-104 @ Pinnacle) At first glance, the Cowboys don't seem like they should be favorites of a touchdown against anyone. Their offense has been sluggish since the preseason, and while the defense has looked pretty good the lack of points on the board has been tough to overcome. Regardless, this is the week I believe that changes. We all know how loaded the Cowboys are at the skill positions, but so far this year they've had offensive line issues that have limited what these players are able to do. This week, two big pieces return to the line as Marc Colombo and Kyle Kosier come back from injuries to offer this unit a boost at home against the hapless Bears. Chicago's defense is still a bit of a question mark, as we've yet to see if Julius Peppers and Brian Urlacher can still be the impact players they once were. Given how poorly this unit played on the road all of last season though, I think there's a good chance that the Cowboys' offensive line holds up much better this week and they put up 24+ points against Chicago. As for the Bears' offense, despite racking up 362 yards of offense against the Lions they still managed to put only 19 points on the board. The offensive line also continues to be a huge concern, as Cutler took four more sacks against a Lions' defense that is certainly not as good as the Cowboys'. The running game also showed no signs of improvement last week as it took the team 31 carries to amass 100 yards. Most concerning for the Bears' offense though - 20 of Cutler's 26 interceptions last year came on the road. With Ware expected to play on defense for Dallas this week, expect the Dallas defense to be at full strength and Cutler to be under constant pressure. This should lead to a couple turnovers, and the Bears will lose this game by double digits when all is said and done. * Green Bay Packers -13 (+102 @ Pinnacle) The Packers ground out a tough win on the road last week against the Eagles, and return home this week to face a much softer Bills team. The Bills looked absolutely terrible on offense at home last week against the Dolphins, gaining just 166 yards of offense and scoring only 10 points - 7 of them due to a blown coverage on 4th and 11. While it's clear that Miami has improved on defense this year, Buffalo's struggles at home are certainly a preview of what to expect when they play what could very well be a better Packers defense this week on the road. Green Bay was one of the top defensive units last year, and despite losing some pieces still look to be solid this year as they were shutting down the Eagles' offense until Michael Vick entered the game. Simply put, the Bills don't have any kind of offensive player as multidimensional as Vick, and the Packers will do to this Buffalo offense what they were doing to the Eagles' before Kolb got knocked out of the game. If Buffalo finds a way to top 14 points in this game, I'll be stunned. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see their point total stay in single digits. For the Green Bay offense, that just leaves the task of scoring in the high 20s. While Philadelphia made Rodgers and the Packers' passing attack look average at times, Buffalo has no kind of blitzing threat to do this. Paul Posluszny will not be playing in this game due to an injury, and the Bills lost one of their best pass rushers from last year Aaron Schobel. Despite the pressure the Packers still managed to hang 27 points on the Eagles, and against a Buffalo defense that won't come close to matching what Philadelphia did I can easily see the Packers topping 30 points in this game. Green Bay should come out focused for their home opener, and open up a sizable lead by halftime. Look for a blowout win as the Packers tune up for their upcoming Monday night showdown against the Bears. * New York Jets +3 (-115 @ Bookmaker) The Jets aren't nearly as bad as they looked on Monday night, and the Patriots aren't nearly as good as they looked against the Bengals. While New York's offense certainly struggled against the Ravens, it's because their offense is not one that's cut out to take advantage of the Ravens' weaknesses in the secondary. Once Baltimore shut down the running game, it was all over for the Jets. Furthermore, Baltimore's offensive line is one of the best in the league, making it very tough for the Jets' blitzes to get to Flacco and allowing the Ravens to convert their 3rd and longs so many times. When Brady comes to town on Sunday, I can say with quite a bit of certainty that the Jets will be able to get quite a bit of pressure on him. While Brady looked great last Sunday against the Bengals, he never faced any kind of pressure whatsoever, and I think that it was more because of a lack of pass rush from the Bengals than to the credit of the offensive line. Logan Mankins is still holding out, and I expect his absence to show up in a big way this Sunday as Brady constantly finds himself under pressure. The Jets are going to open up their playbook for Sanchez this week, and I think that they'll get their running game going without much trouble which will allow him to be in more third and short situations rather than third and long. I'm not going to panic on the Jets and I'm going to stick with my opinion on them, look for them to get their first win this weekend. * San Fransisco 49ers +5.5 (-102 @ Pinnacle) I'm taking another shot with the 49ers as I think they find themselves in a very favorable spot this week. While their Week 1 loss to the Seahawks was very puzzling, early in the game I did see positive signs from them and recognize how easily they could have been up 14-0 in that game. Once things weren't going their way they completely fell apart, and played very far below the level of football they're capable of playing at. Monday night, the defending champion New Orleans Saints come to face the 49ers in what some people expect to be a blowout. One thing my mind keeps going back to though is last year when four point favorite Arizona played at San Fransisco on a Monday night. At the time the Cardinals were boasting a high flying passing attack, yet the 49ers completely shut down Warner and the Cardinals forcing six turnovers and holding the explosive Arizona offense to nine points. I've seen a pattern in the Saints over the last couple years where they play at a lower level on the road, and while their rush defense looked good against Minnesota in the opener I still don't trust the unit at all and think Frank Gore has a great chance to get going and put up some big yards in this game. The 49ers should control the clock and limit what Brees and the Saints' offense can do in this game, while an outright win is certainly possible I expect this game to go down to the wire and for the points to matter in the end. Survivor Picks of the Week: Green Bay Packers Dallas Cowboys That's it for this week everyone, good luck to anyone who wagers and hopefully we can get back on the winning track!

Chiefs +1 @ Browns 38 Bills +13 @ Packers 43 Ravens -1 @ Bengals 40 Steelers +5 @ Titans 37 Eagles -4.5 @ Lions 41 Bears +9 @ Cowboys 41 Bucs +3.5 @ Panthers 38 Cardinals +6.5 @ Falcons 43 Dolphins +5.5 @ Vikings 39 Rams +4 @ Raiders 37.5 Seahawks +3.5 @ Broncos 39.5 Texans -3 @ Redskins 44 Jaguars +7.5 @ Chargers 45.5 Patriots -1.5 @ Jets 38.5 Giants +5.5 @ Colts 48 Saints -4.5 @ 49ers 44 Good luck this week everyone!

* San Fransisco 49ers -3 (+104 @ Pinnacle) Of all the three point road favorites this week, this has to be my favorite. First of all, Seattle is currently in disarray. Their starting Left Tackle is hurt, they just released their #1 WR, and their defensive line is among the worst in the NFL. They're clearly in rebuilding mode, and the best phase of their game, their rushing attack, is matched up with what will be one of the best rush defenses in the NFL in 2010. Last season, the 49ers lost this game. While that's a slightly discouraging sign, there is no doubt in my mind that the 49ers were the clearly superior team in the game. Their loss can be chalked up to bad decisions and bad breaks, and it's clear the 49ers could have easily put about 17 more points on the board had they just taken advantage of opportunities. This year the 49ers will benefit from the return of one of their best offensive linemen, and Frank Gore should shred a pitiful Seattle defense. Look for the 49ers to win this one in a big way. * Packers/Eagles OVER 47.5 (-106) Green Bay's offense has flown high this preseason, with Rodgers and the passing game looking nearly unstoppable. The Packers' biggest weakness last season, their offensive line, has been somewhat addressed this offseason, which should ensure that Rodgers sees more time to throw the ball than last year and doesn't get sacked nearly as much. The Eagles rush defense is clearly superior to their pass defense, meaning that the Packers should focus their attack more through the air, which will certainly be beneficial to the over. While Philadelphia now has QB Kevin Kolb at the helm, despite a shaky preseason I remain convinced that he's not much of a downgrade if any at all from McNabb. He certainly has some great weapons at his disposal with DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, and much like the Packers the offense is facing a defense that is great against the run. The Eagles will likely have to turn to the passing game to pick on a suspect Packers' secondary, especially if they want any hope of keeping up with Green Bay on the scoreboard. This game has all the makings of a shootout, and I fully expect a high scoring affair that may come down to who has the ball last. * Browns/Bucs OVER 37 (-106) I botched games similar to this last year, but believe me I've learned from it. Last season I took two stabs at Browns unders, against the Lions and against the Chiefs. I figured in both situations that the crummy offenses would make the defenses look good, yet in both cases the games turned into shootouts and I lost the bets. This game looks very similar to me, except I actually am a believer in the Tampa Bay offense. While Freeman is returning from a thumb injury, he's been practicing all week and all signs point to him being good to go come Sunday. I've loved what I've seen out of the Tampa Bay passing game this preseason, and against what I believe to be an unimproved Browns defense the Bucs should have no trouble coming by points. The Browns' offense has also looked surprisingly good this preseason, with Jack Delhomme throwing the ball much more accurately than he did last season as a Panther. The Bucs will be missing their top CB Aqib Talib due to a suspension, so the Browns should have no problem moving the ball down the field on this defense. While I lean towards the Bucs winning this one, I feel more confident in the over coming through so I'll stick with that as my play. * Ravens/Jets UNDER 35.5 (+100) I was set to roll with the Ravens in this one, but the return of Revis to the Jets has given me a fresh perspective on this one. Baltimore's offense has been raved about this preseason, but with Revis covering Boldin now there's a good chance that he doesn't make much noise in this game. The Ravens' next best option at WR is Mason, and with Cromartie covering him I've got to think that the Ravens won't get a whole lot done through the passing game. Likely, Baltimore will turn to Ray Rice to win the game for them. The Jets were one of the better teams against the run last year, and playing at home on Sunday night I'd have to believe that while they won't completely contain Rice, they can certainly limit the damage he does. The Jets offense has been unspectacular all preseason, and will be playing this one without WR Santonio Holmes. For the Jets, it all starts with the run, a problem because they are facing the league's #1 rush defense from last year. Assuming the Jets can't get their running game going, which I don't imagine they will be able to, they're going to have to turn to Mark Sanchez to make plays for them. While Baltimore's secondary is currently a bit shaky, you can bet that they'll turn up the pressure on the young QB and I'd imagine he'd be good for a turnover or two. I can't see either of these teams topping 17 points, in reality I think we may see a 16-10 type of game. It'll certainly be a great defensive battle to watch, and while I'm not sure which team comes out ahead, I'm confident that it stays a low scoring game. Good luck this week everyone!

Out of all the plays that look like traps, this is probably the one I like the most. I know SF lost this game last year, but they pretty much handed it away. I doubt they do that again, should be an easy win

Haha great timing on your part, I came here to do it and you beat me to it by 6 min!

Thanks for getting this up, I'll run point again this year if you want, or maybe we could just say whoever gets to it first. I'll be around all year though, BOL to ya!

So on Sunday Tim Cowlishaw tweeted that he had inside information that Revis would sign "probably Wednesday", today he wrote this article standing by that tweet: http://timcowlishawblog.dallasnews.com/arc...d-the-twit.html Very interesting read, we can only hope it's true! I'd love to see him out there for Week 1

We've had an unbelievable number of injuries so far and it's only August 1! Hopefully Moreno is okay for the Broncos' sake, they really need him this year

I heard he walked out of the locker room after practice no problem, so hopefully that's true and there's no major problem