anklecharm

hello, i just got into a keeper league. it is a ppr league, that has other bonuses. 1 point bonus for 100-149 yds rushing. 2 for 150-200. 3 for 250-300. same thing for receiving. my league has 9 teams in it. i inherited a team that im keeping mike evans in the 10th round. we have to sacrifice our draft pick for the player. so, if you draft a guy in the 5th and keep him. then you dont get the 5th round pick... all this said, i think mike evans will produce way better this year(if the hammy holds up) than anybody is predicting. im thinking dez numbers are not out of the question. 1400-1500 yards and 11-15 tds... why, because of winstons tendacies... he tends to lean way too much on his go to receiver.... often going to that guy whne he is covered, going to him when he should check down to the back jumping his progressions and going to that same guy when he should be going through his progressions.... point with this being, i think ive got my top shelp #1 receiver, but id like to have me one more top shelf guy because we have a flex league that starts 2 rb 2 wr 1 te and one flex. since our league favors wrs with ppr id like to have 3 wrs start.... i have the 5th pick... by far my favorite picking position! anyway, im going gronk in the 1st becausehim in relation to other te s give a big advsntage. more so than top wr against top wr or top rb vs top rb.... here is where my question comes into play... i am IN LOVE with todd gurly! my rookie evaluation on rbs has been great. ive gone lt edge knoshawn robert edwards ap etc.. having yet to be burned by picking them too early. i usually go 2-3 if i am in love with a rookie rb... i am more hyped about gurly than i have ever been about another rookie rb, except maybe lt or ap.... lets assume i am right with my gut and gurly does indeed become the guy ar rb.. and will produce top 3 rb numbers as a rookie... he has a tough playoff schedule and rookie rbs tend to hit a wall a little bit at the end of the season.... i want to get the most value for him as possible when picking him (so sacrificing my picks in the future will mean better value) im torn between going for him in the 2nd or 3rd.... granted, i know it is a REACH, but ive got to get this kid. i know i will be laughed at for taking him with the 15th pick.... i also know that i could possibly get the guy with my 4th pick... he is just a guy i dont want to take any risks on not getting!. if you guys were convinced you could be wrapping up ap as a rookie, in a keeper league, where do you drsft him to get best future keeper value, but not risk losing him??? should i go with him at 2, having to give up a really nice pick in future years, or should i run the risk that somebody will snag him before me in the 3rd. im sure they will announce he will start game one before we draft.... i am very torn here... even considered trying to work out a pick swapping trade with the guy w #1 pick.. swap 3s (giving me a 3rd round keeper value for him) then swapping my 4 for his 5 and then the same thing next round. basically i drop back 5 positions in the swaps. giving him 2-3 5 position spot bumps up in exchange for me moving up 4 spots in the 3rd to get gurly.... one more slight advantage for me in this is ill be getting the 1st picks in those rounds.... maximixing my position for selecting a player... ... think if i just take him at 2 the drop off between a wr at 15 to one at 25 wont be too steep? also, i think i can possibly hit home runs at wr and get a guy or two to start for me that way out perform what they are projected to do... in the past ive been able to go against the grain and get big steals... knowing my history, it makes it a bit easier for me to reach on gurly... im a firm believer that if you go by where the books say to draft players , you miss out and dont win your leagues. you have to make smart secure picks but also take a home run cut or two and also hit big on a late round flier... do this and you put yourself in position to win it all... dont take a risk or 2 and you always end up in the middle of the pack.. a couple of my home run swings will hopefully be charles johnson latavious murry or joseph randle... ive watched randle play since his time at osu... this kid is patient in the hole.. he knows how to set up runs really well, he has a good stiff leg cutback nad better speed than murray. he also has strength to shed tackles.... not as well as murray but this kid has everything a back needs to excel in the league... he will get 1500-1600 all porpose yards this year if he stays healthy... i am really good at spotting talent running the ball. nobody is giving this kid credit for his skills running the ball.. he is an exceptional runner running behind a great line... ppl dont realize the tlent he brings to the table... last years numbers were blown up him being a change in pace back, but not as much as ppl think... he will averge around 4.5 yards a carry. ppl look back at his rookie rushing numbers instead ow watching all his carrys... he made a common mistake young backs make... hewouldnt set up his blockers.. he would either hit the holes too soon, or give up on the holes and bounce the ball outside when he shouldnt have... not to mention, that dallas cowboys line was not that great of a run blocking line. slightly below average at best... only 2 linemen produced that year... the year before. that dallas line was about as bad as any line ive ever seen... i thought i woudl give back a little bit of what ive observed as a thanks for ppl giving me their opinion on when they think i should draft gurly if i want to be sure to get him