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Riding the RB carousel


MTSuper7
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Here's the scoop - I'm playing against a 4-8 team that I should beat (in theory), so I'm more likely to go with a safer pick vs. a swing for the fences pick at RB. League scoring is in my sig as is my roster. I'm trying to find the guys with the lowest floor, particularly the ones with the highest probability of scoring a TD. I need to pick two RBs among these:

 

Willis McGahee at MIN

Beanie Wells vs DAL

Jonathan Stewart @ TB

Kendall Hunter vs STL

Ben Tate vs ATL

 

I feel like Jonathan Stewart is locked in to one of the two spots. Not so much for the chances he scores, but he's the only real threat for PPR, therefore he has the smallest probability of giving me absolutely nothing.

 

My other RB spot is probably safest with McGahee. I am tempted to throw in Kendall Hunter because of the dream matchup, but there is no guarantee that the 49ers will run away with the game, so banking on Hunter getting plenty of garbage time production is dangerous. Plus, with McGahee, there is less of a chance of Denver abandoning the run since they will likely be able to keep the game close with their defense. That's the biggest concern I have about Beanie - how long before the Cards have to abandon the run? And Tate is just not an option, though he did have a streak of games with TDs despite playing behind Foster. Still, too much risk of a gooseegg with Tate.

 

Those are my thoughts...Would you also start Stewart and McGahee as the guys with the lowest floor? Any other thoughts on this situation? For what it's worth, I do have the option of starting a RB at flex, but right now I feel locked in to Nicks, VJax, Harvin and Laurent Robinson as my 3 WRs and Flex. I just don't think any of my RBs are enticing enough to change that. Thanks in advance, and I'll answer your question if you link to it!

 

-MT

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I agree with you assessment as well, but the only thing I would do different, especially because you're looking for a high floor, is plug in Beanie instead of VJax at Flex. That may sound crazy, but Beanie will get a ton of touches and Dallas' run defense can be exploited (i.e. LeSean McCoy). VJax always has huge upside, but with the way Rivers is playing, he's a huge risk. IMO, if you're looking for a solid, high floor team, I'd go with:

 

QB: Brees (of course)

RB: McGahee

RB: Stewart

Flex: Wells

WR: Robinson

WR: Harvin

WR: Nicks

TE: Davis

DEF: Toss-up (probably GB since they're playing so well)

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Wow, I'm a llittle surprised at the love for Beanie over VJax in the flex, but I guess it is true that Beanie is less likely to give me a complete zero. It's a TD heavy league, and Beanie should get some cracks from inside the 5 this weekend. I'm just worried about how he looks with his knee being jacked up yet again. It took him a month to get back to being at full speed last time he hurt his knee. Hmmm... Jacksonville at home did comepletely shut down Baltimore earlier this year too when they played in prime time. I think I'm seeing the light on this.

 

ETA - Thank you to those who responded. I appreciate the different opinions and perspectives.

Edited by MTSuper7
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Beanie is funny like that, I've had him on my roster in a couple leagues and I even benched him earlier in the season when he initially had the knee issue and went off for 100+ and 3 TDs. I now will not sit him unless it is a very poor matchup. Dallas isn't the best matchup and Arizona could play from behind in this one depending on which Tony Romo is on the field this weekend but I still like Beanie's chances and as of right now I'm deploying him this weekend with AP out and Spiller on my bench.

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I have Jackson as well ... and I am starting him even tho I have other options ( Wells is not included in them but they're comparible to him ).

The Huddle's "Start/Bench" ranking gave Wells a S3 with the following background (after brief support) :

"The S3, however, signifies a lack of trust, as Beanie has let us down before."

 

Their position on Jackson however :

S2 ... The Jags are thin at corner; in other words, there's no danger of Champ Bailey taking VJax out of the game like he did last week. If Jackson is on an every-other-week kick with his big games (141 & 3 in Week 9, 165 & 1 in Week 11) it's worth noting that this should be an "on" week for him.

 

Like always ... it still comes down to your own gut feeling .... or ... roll of the dice. :wacko:

Edited by BadDawg
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I have Jackson as well ... and I am starting him even tho I have other options ( Wells is not included in them but they're comparible to him ).

The Huddle's "Start/Bench" ranking gave Wells a S3 with the following background (after brief support) :

"The S3, however, signifies a lack of trust, as Beanie has let us down before."

 

Their position on Jackson however :

S2 ... The Jags are thin at corner; in other words, there's no danger of Champ Bailey taking VJax out of the game like he did last week. If Jackson is on an every-other-week kick with his big games (141 & 3 in Week 9, 165 & 1 in Week 11) it's worth noting that this should be an "on" week for him.

 

Like always ... it still comes down to your own gut feeling .... or ... roll of the dice. :wacko:

 

Yeah, the way I see it is do I want a surer chance at, say, 10-15 fantasy points with Beanie or a 50/50 chance at either 30 points from VJax or 2 points from VJax. Considering my situation, I think the safer play makes sense. Rivers just isn't getting the amount of time he needs to look downfield, and even when he does, he just hasn't been as accurate. But Jacksonvlile just lost Del Rio and is hurting on defense anyway, and my gut is telling me that I wouldn't regret playing VJax this week, but I think I prefer not to gamble. Thanks for adding your opinion!

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The thing that gets me is that Beanie is battle that knee injury which has hampered him for the past few weeks. When starting a game this year, Wells has ranged from 27 attempts to 8 attempts and averaged between 8.4 and 2.0 with that 2.0 average being against philly who it seems everyone runs well against. The point here is that he is up and down and is never a guarantee for 10 points no matter who his opponent is. This week he is playing Dallas who has been stellar against the run - Only Steve Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, Frank Gore and LeSean McCoy were able to score against them - those guys are on a different level than Beanie. Reggie Bush, Fred Jackson, Law Firm, Javid Best, Hightower, Shonn Greene we all held under 10 points and didn't score a TD. I'd take my chances with VJax against a beat up Jacksonville defense.

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5167/beanie-wells

Edited by Croe
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I would play VJax. I would feel dirty about it, but I would play him for the same reason I left McCoy in my lineup this week: if he goes off on your bench, you're gonna feel sick about it.

 

As for your original question, I think McGahee is the lock. After that, the variance on JStew is so high I'd probably roll with Beanie.

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I would play VJax. I would feel dirty about it, but I would play him for the same reason I left McCoy in my lineup this week: if he goes off on your bench, you're gonna feel sick about it.

 

As for your original question, I think McGahee is the lock. After that, the variance on JStew is so high I'd probably roll with Beanie.

 

At this point, I'm actually leaning toward benching Harvin for VJax and starting all three RBs discussed in this thread. This mysterious illness crap is just too typical of Harvin, and my gut is all of a sudden telling me that Harvin might be in for a rough day the way Denver (and Champ Bailey) have been playing D lately. The missed practice / illness thing feels like the swaying point.

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