Read 'em & weep.....

Shekels Division Analysis 2009

Sumpin’ sumpin’ – REZ
2008 Record: 12-4 FLS Champion
2007 Record: 12-4
Cumulative Record: 62-44 (58.49%) in 7 seasons
Top Players: Maurice Jones-Drew, Pierre Thomas, Greg Jennings, Brandon Marshall
Why REZ will win the division this year: MJD no longer runs in the shadow of Fred Taylor – he should have more carries, more yardage and more touchdowns. Pierre Thomas benefits from being the starting RB on one of the most high-scoring offenses in the league. Jennings is blossoming into one of the premier WR’s in the game, and his QB is improving each year too. Brandon Marshall could be a late-round (4.11) steal if he can put his contract issues behind him and pick up where he left off last year.
Why REZ will NOT win the division this year: Jones-Drew is too diminutive to carry the load as an every-down back. Thomas must prove that he deserves to start ahead of Bush and even Mike Bell. Jennings depends upon the continued development of Aaron Rodgers – if Rodgers takes a step back, Jennings’ numbers will fall precipitously. Brandon Marshall is another T.O. – and that’s not a good thing. But it is REZ’s QB’s (or lack thereof) that will be his undoing. REZ waited until the ninth round (9.02) to take a QB (David Garrard) and then followed that pick with Brett Favre (11.02) and Jason Campbell (17.2). We’ll give the defending FLS Champ the benefit of the doubt here and assume that he knows something we don’t know, but it wouldn’t shock most FF observers if all three of those QB’s are not putting up even average numbers this year.
Predicted Finish: 1st or 2nd in the division.

Smell The Glove – Big F’n Dave
2008 Record: 5-8
2007 Record: 9-8
Cumulative Record: 60-56 (51.72%) in 8 seasons
Top Players: Frank Gore, Steve Slaton, Terrell Owens, Santonio Holmes, Kurt Warner
Why Dave will win the division this year: Gore & Slaton are young, hungry RB’s who are primed for breakout seasons; Holmes showed in the Super Bowl that he is ready to step up into elite tier of NFL WR’s; Warner may be 38 years old, but he’s still got what it takes and he has a great WR crew with Fitzgerald, Boldin & Breaston to work with. BFD also has capable backups in RBs Addai, M Bush and M Bell, and WR depth with Ginn, Meachem and Muhammad, plus exciting rookie Heyward-Bey.
Why Dave will NOT win the division this year: Warner is 38 and the Cardinals may take a big step backwards this year after their dream season in 2008. Slaton & Gore are capable RB’s on crappy teams, and Addai is a crappy RB on a capable team. Owens is a cancer wherever he goes. As soon as he realizes that the Bills season is going nowhere, Owens will be disruptive or worse. He’ll probably get benched or suspended before his 6th touchdown of the year (that the over/under here, anyways).
Predicted Finish: 1st or 2nd in the division.

Rams – Ramhock
2008 Record: N/A (took a sabbatical)
2007 Record: 5-9
Cumulative Record: 53-51 (50.96%) in 7 seasons
Top Players: Matt Forte, Roddy White, Derrick Ward, TJ Houshmandzadeh
Why Ramhock will win the division this year: Fresh from a one year sabbatical, Ramhock fields a well-rested team led by Forte and Ward. Roddy White improves upon his breakout season of 2008 as his QB (Matt Ryan) avoids the sophomore jinx. Houshmandzadeh thrives in his new setting and becomes Matt Hasselbeck’s go-to WR. Ramhock finds hidden treasure in backup RB’s Bernard Scott and Donald Brown. Breaston puts up huge numbers as Fitzgerald and Boldin fail to stay healthy.
Why Ramhock will NOT win the division this year: McNabb, Cutler & Flacco put up similar numbers each week, making it difficult for Ramhock to figure out which one to start. Forte struggles as Cutler disrupts the Bears offense several weeks into the new season – they don’t know if they are a running team or a passing team (and defenses stack up against the run forcing Cutler to beat them if he can, hurting Forte’s numbers). Ward is not handed the starting RB job in Tampa Bay, instead having to fight off Cadillac and Graham for playing time.
Predicted Finish: 3rd or 4th in the division..

Public Humiliartion – ABearWithFurniture
2008 Record: 5-8
2007 Record: 4-10
Cumulative Record: 28-42 (40.0%) in 5 seasons
Top Players: Aaron Rodgers, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson
Why Bear will win the division this year: Aaron Rodgers seems poised to join the elite (top5) QB ranks this year; this team boasts not one, but TWO, big Johnsons at WR – both Calvin and Andre combine to form one of, if not THE, most formidable WR duos in the FLS; two or more of Bear’s stable of very young RB’s (Moreno, McCoy, Coffee & McFadden) emerge this year; Cadillac Williams rebounds back to his rookie form and perennial 3rd down back Leon Washington gets more opportunities this year.
Why Bear will NOT win the division this year: Three rookies and a 2nd year RB put too much reliance on young, unproven talent. Cadillac is rusty and Washington rides the pine behind Thomas Jones too often. While it’s nice to have two big Johnson’s, FLS rosters go three-wide at WR and Burleson, Avery, Gonzo and Finley don’t get it done for ABWF. Rodgers faces a tough schedule (except for the Lions) and may not be consistent enough to carry this team.
Predicted Finish: 3rd or 4th in the division..

Nice, Mike. But if I'd known you were suggest I may do no better than second, I wouldn't have requested the analysis.