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michaelredd9 last won the day on August 11

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  1. How many carries will Christian McCaffrey get?

    McCaffrey averaged 2.3 ypc in the first 8 games and he averaged 4.6 ypc in the last 8 games of the season. It is skewed a bit because had a nice stretch from weeks 10-12 where he averaged 4.4ypc, 4.6ypc, and 8.8 ypc. If you include that 3 game stretch with the first 8 games, he averaged 3.5 ypc over the first 11 games and he averaged 4.0 ypc over the last 6 games of the season including the playoff game. In 3 of those last 6 games, he ran for 6-16, 6-16, and 6-19. So he didn't really end the season as good as the 4.6 ypc stat would indicate. McCaffrey weighed 202 at the combine. There are zero workhorse running backs currently in the NFL that weighed that little at the combine. And when I watch him, he looks smaller than 202 pounds. I don't believe the reports of him gaining weight. He is muscular and has a big upper body. He isn't thick in the ass and thighs. The lower body is more important than the upper body for the success and durability of a running back running the ball. McCaffrey played 70% of snaps last year and only got 117 carries. They did not want him running the ball. They did not have him running the ball much at the end of the year in games that mattered even though Jonathan Stewart was horrible. What has changed from last year to this year other than Jonathan Stewart being replaced by a better running back? CJ Anderson is a good running back. He is a bowling ball. He is the opposite of McCaffrey in every aspect. Their skill sets complement each other well. They are thunder and lightning. CJ will play at least 40% of snaps. CJ will get most of the between-the-tackles carries. CJ will get more total carries than McCaffrey. They will probably end up close in total touches.
  2. did you buy high on McKinnon this off-season?

    Priest is a great example. Michael Turner came to mind but he looked awesome at San Diego so his blossoming in Atlanta wasn't a surprise.
  3. Rashaad Penny hand injury

    This is not good for Penny's development. He needs reps. I don't think he'll now be able to win the starting job before their week 7 bye. It could even be a lost year for fantasy purposes. This improves the stock of Mike Davis. He still isn't roster worthy but I will now be keeping an eye on him. Davis only averaged 3.5 ypc last year but he looked good at times. I don't think McKissic or Prosise would be considered for the main ball carrying role.
  4. How many carries will Christian McCaffrey get?

    I think McCaffrey is going to have 125-175 carries. He is small. He was not a good rusher last year. Why have a superstar player do something he isn't very good at and that puts him at great risk of injury? He is great at receiving the ball and that is how he should be featured. It would make no sense to give him many more carries unless he becomes better at running the ball. And most running backs don't improve much at running the ball. When a team has a small and talented running back, coaches always say they are going to use them more. It is usually coachspeak. No coach is going to be honest and say that the player is too small to handle a big workload. The small player certainly doesn't want his coach publicly saying he is too small to handle a big workload. So coaches say the opposite. Coaches are especially going to lie when the diminutive player is a star and a fan favorite. Tarik Cohen will also not get a lot of carries this year. Chris Thompson will again have his carries limited despite his 5.2 ypc career rushing average and the Redskins' need at running back. And Darren Sproles will once again not get a lot of carries. Sproles has never had 100 carries in a season despite having a 4.9 ypc career rushing average. Size matters. I like McCaffrey at his mid-second round adp. I especially like him when he is available in the low second round which is fairly often. I've grabbed him twice in the second round after drafting Antonio Brown in the 1st round. McCaffrey was the 9th highest scoring running back last year despite only having 117 carries. He is for sure going to be used heavily in their passing game again. Injury is the only way he busts. He is available at the point in the draft where there are no more legit tier 1 players available. His ceiling might be lower than tier 1 but he is a very safe bet to end the season in the top 10 running backs.
  5. Allison has 'established himself' as No. 3 WR http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/nfl/378069/allison-has-established-himself-as-no-3-wr?ls=roto:GB:topheadlines The Green Bay Press-Gazette's Ryan Wood writes Geronimo Allison "has quietly established himself as the team’s No. 3 receiver." "He is always in the right place," Wood continues, "and his combination of size (6-3) and sure hands make him a reliable target." With Randall Cobb out, Allison worked as the No. 2 in the preseason opener, well ahead of the trio of rookies seemingly drafted to replace him. In good shape to win the No. 3 job in an Aaron Rodgers offense, Allison is worth drafting in deeper formats. Source: Green Bay Press-Gazette Aug 14 - 10:10 AM
  6. How many carries will Christian McCaffrey get?

    I don't think CJ Anderson is getting nearly the credit he deserves. He was PFF's 7th highest graded running back last year. His run grade was 6th highest and his pass blocking was 3rd highest. Jonathan Stewart was PFF's 3rd worst graded running back last year and he still outcarried McCaffrey 198-117. Stewart wasn't even a good pass blocker last year. CJ Anderson is hugh improvement on Stewart on every level. McCaffrey is a great receiver. He is a below average rusher and abysmal at pass blocking. I don't see why the Panthers would want to increase his carries when he isn't good at rushing the ball and his small body probably can't handle the wear and tear.
  7. Norv Turner and Ron Rivera have said that Christian McCaffrey will be a workhorse. It it coachspeak or real talk?
  8. did you buy high on McKinnon this off-season?

    I'm torn on McKinnon. I hate drafting a player based on situation. It isn't often that a player who wasn't good enough to be "the guy" on one team suddenly blossoms on another team just because it was a good situation. Wherever you go, you take yourself with you. But he is a great receiver and Shanahan produces fantasy elite running backs. I wish he was available in the 5th round. Where he is being drafted, I'd rather have Joe Mixon. Mixon has the body type that can handle a workhorse load.
  9. Deeper Sleepers

    I'm not very pro-Carson. I am anti-Penny. I think Penny's most likely scenario is bust. He still has a 5th round adp. Carson's adp has risen from the 14th round to the 9th round so a lot of his value is gone. But if Carson does win the starting job and averages something like 12 carries for 53 yards with 2 receptions, that is nice asset to have on a fantasy bench. But his situation is too uncertain and his ceiling is too low for me to use a 9th round pick on him.
  10. Baldinger on Darnold

    I'm doubtful that they'd pay McCown $10 million if they intended on him being a backup. But with Bowles likely on the hot seat, he'll play whoever gives them the best chance to win. My guess is that is McCown. Starting Darnold would be playing for the future. I would definitely rather have McCown at quarterback if I owned any Jets' receivers. Receivers and tight ends have done well with McCown at quarterback. Rookie quarterbacks rarely produce good fantasy receivers or tight ends.
  11. I voted for Cole. I think Dak is going to lean on him. Dak likes the short passing game and Beasley's quickness allows him to get instant separation. It's a perfect match. In 2016, Dak had a passer rating of 110.2 on quick passes which was second best in the league. Beasley was the main reason for that success. However, injury is a big concern for Cole because of his smallness. Every hit he takes over the middle is a risk of injury. But I think he'll be ppr gold while healthy. If Beasley does get hurt, I'll probably make lowball trade offers for Hurns since he'll probably take over slot duties and could become Dak's favorite short passing game target. Galloping Michael Gallup is intriguing. I usually avoid rookies and I probably won't draft Gallup but he is in a great situation. Beasley, Hurns, and Austin are all at their best while playing the slot. Hurns will probably be forced to play on the outside and he isn't athletic enough or fast enough to get separation. Getting separation is necessary to be effective on the outside. Gallup could end up being Prescott's favorite downfield target because he can get separation. And while Dak may prefer the short passing game, he is effective throwing downfield. He only threw deep on 8.8% of passes last year which ranked 27th in the league but his adjusted completion percentage on deep passes was 4th best in league. His passer rating on deep passes was 106.2. The Dallas coaching staff will look at the metrics and will probably try to get him to pass deep more frequently. Gallup could be the beneficiary of that increased deep passing.
  12. Your Homer Team Training Camp Chatter

    if it's what you say I love it especially later in the summer.
  13. Interesting Mayfield observation

    It seems weird to me that it is expected that a player would be working out privately during training camp. Isn't training camp rigorous enough without adding an extra morning workout? If Hue thinks that a player should be working out more then why doesn't he make it part of practice? And if I were Mayfield, I would want to come to practice fresh and filled with energy instead of being worn out from a 3 hour morning workout.
  14. Rex Burkhead listed as starter

    Burkhead does have some power but he isn't a good rusher. His 4.73 40 time is probably the culprit. He averaged 4.1 ypc last year running behind the offensive line that PFF ranked 3rd in the league. PFF gave Burkhead a run grade of 59.0 last year. He did get a pass block grade of 79.8 and a receiving grade of 85.1. He is Brandon Bolden but with receiving skills. Belichick probably loves him and he will have a role because of his passing game skills. Belichick might even let him be the main ball carrier for a couple of games as a reward for embodying "the Patriot Way". But Belichick likes to have a more effective run game than Burkhead can provide. His adp has risen from the 7th round to the 5th round since the Sony Michel injury. I think the earliest I would consider drafting him is the 12th round.
  15. Courtland Sutton

    I'm surprised at how little love Case is receiving. He was very good last year. He did start slowly but that was to be expected since he hadn't practiced with the 1st stringers in the preseason. Once he got going, he really got going. He had better than a 100 quarterback rating in 6 of the last 8 games of the season. He only had 23 total touchdowns on the season but had 16 touchdowns in the last 8 games and was the 5th highest scoring fantasy quarterback over that span. His second half of the season was so strong that he ended up with second highest qbr on the season trailing only Carson Wentz. It is too bad that Denver's defense is good. A bad defense is a fantasy quarterback's best friend. Denver has the receivers to put up big numbers if they are trailing. But it looks like their defense isn't likely to let that happen. The Vikings defense didn't let Case put up much garbage time stats either. The Vikings trailed by more than 7 points only 2 times last year. So it's not surprising that Case had 10 second quarter touchdowns but only 9 second half touchdowns. The Vikings were almost always ahead in the second half and played conservatively. Every year the quarterback position gets deeper. There are 20 fantasy quarterbacks who are roster worthy this year. I am totally comfortable starting 15 of those quarterbacks. I see no reason to draft a quarterback before the 10th round. In the 10th round, quarterbacks like Ben Roethlisberger, Marcus Mariota, Jimmy Garoppolo, Philip Rivers, Andrew Luck, and Matt Stafford can be available. It isn't possible to know which ones will be available in round 10 but a couple of them will be available. Case Keenum is available even later. If I wait until rounds 10-12 to draft my first quarterback and there is a run on backup quarterbacks before I can grab a quarterback, Case Keenum is a nice fallback option. His adp ranges from round 15 to round 20. He is also a low-cost second quarterback to draft. It is nice having 2 legit quarterbacks to be able to play matchups. And it is easy to justify using the roster space since so little draft capital was used if your first quarterback is drafted in the 10th round.