michaelredd9

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michaelredd9 last won the day on June 20

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  1. GBP backfield

    That might have had more to do with the receiving skills of the running backs. Eddie Lacy and James Starks weren't great receivers but they combined for 60 and 63 receptions in 2014 and 2015. Ty Montgomery had 44 receptions while only playing 36% of snaps in 2016. Although, Ty's use was unique enough that it is hard to draw any parallels to other running backs who will be used differently.
  2. Is Evan Engram Overrated?

    I am maybe being too harsh on him. He was a rookie. Tight ends who become great are often ineffective their rookie year. The learning curve is slow for tight ends.
  3. FTSA Experts Draft

    Derrick Henry at #40 is not a good pick. A running back who doesn't get receptions has a ceiling of RB2. Henry has had 11 and 13 receptions the last two seasons. But he probably won't even be a RB2 because he will likely play second fiddle to Dion Lewis. The Titans didn't give Lewis $8.25 million guaranteed to be a complimentary player. Unless Lewis gets hurt, Henry will probably gets stats similar to last year when he played 39.92% of snaps and was the 37th highest scoring fantasy running back.
  4. GBP backfield

    I don't think I'll even need any luck. Jones' floor is RB2 unless he gets hurt. I'll probably need some luck with Montgomery. But at his adp, he is just a flyer.
  5. FTSA Experts Draft

    I like Michael Thomas and Davante Adams at 12 and 17. They both have virtually a zero percent chance of busting.
  6. Is Evan Engram Overrated?

    Evan Engram was extremely inefficient last year. He caught 55.7% of his targets. That was by far the lowest catch rate of any of the top 20 fantasy tight ends. In fact, a lot of the elite tight ends had a catch rate well over 70%. Was it because Eli was inaccurate? Probably not. Overall, 75.8% of Eli passes were considered catchable which was 5th best in the league. Engram dropped 11 passes according to PFF and he dropped 5 passes according to Fox Sports. That was the most dropped passes for a tight end according to PFF and the second most dropped passes for a tight end according to Fox Sports. PFF gave him an overall grade of 42.2 which ranked 67th out of 71 tight ends. PFF gave him a receiving grade of 55.8 which isn't much better. Did Evan get 64 catches, 722 yards, and 6 touchdowns solely because he was a warm body on the field and someone had to get some stats? Is Engram set up for a sophomore slump because Eli will have superior receivers to throw to?
  7. GBP backfield

    I am salivating over the low fantasy cost and hugh potential of this backfield. An Aaron Rodgers led offense will produce fantasy points at running back. And the Packers have one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the NFL. Even with the multitude of injuries on their offensive line last season, they led the NFL with 2.04 yards-before-contact on carries. That included Bryan Bulaga missing 11 games and David Bakhtiari missing 4 games. Those two are arguably the best offensive tackle tandem in the league and they are expected to return healthy. What McCarthy said was pretty much a non-statement. It was coachdoublespeak. After saying they would have a committee approach at running back, he said "But if one of them would emerge as that full-time guy then you have to have that ability to ... adjust to that" In other words, it won't necessarily be a committee. Jones and Montgomery will be the ones that I target. Aaron Jones has the potential to be a fantasy stud. McCarthy might even have Jones penciled in as the starter but doesn't want to announce him as the starter in order to keep a fire lit under him. Jones is also likely going to start the season with a one game suspension. So it makes sense to wait until a few games into the season to officially make him the starter. I am hoping the news that they are planning to have a RBBC and that Jones will be suspended will cause his adp to fall further. Jones does need to improve at pass protection. I will be watching him closely in the preseason to make sure he has improved at it. Nothing will make him lose the chance to be the starter like allowing Aaron Rodgers to get blowed up. Montgomery is a wildcard but his adp of 132.76 is a small price to pay for a player who has the chance to be PPR gold. Williams could do well for the likely one game suspension of Jones or if Jones got hurt, but I think his best scenario is being part of a committee as long as Jones is healthy. This situation isn't like drafting a Bill Belichick running back. McCarthy has very rarely used a committee approach at running back in the past. Even when there were multiple running backs used in a season, like last year, you usually knew who was going to be the main ball carrier going into each game. Mike McCarthy is not a man of mystery. He is a straight shooter. And drafting Aaron Jones isn't going to require a 3rd round fantasy pick. If it did, I would pass because of the murkiness of the situation. Jones has an adp of 82.86. Ty Montgomery can be had at the point in the draft where people are drafting defenses and pure handcuffs. The Packers running backs are low cost/high risk/high reward options. But can a player even be considered high risk when the cost is so low?
  8. Buccs might be interested in Adrian Peterson?

    Some smaller running backs can handle a heavy workload. It is hard to predict who can and who cannot handle it until it happens. But it is extremely rare for a team to give a small rookie running back the opportunity to prove that they can handle a heavy workload in their first year. Teams like to protect their investment and play it safe for a year or two with the small guys. I believe the last time a rookie running back lighter than 215 pounds had 200 carries was Chris Johnson in 2008.
  9. Buccs might be interested in Adrian Peterson?

    Every running back taken with a high draft pick has had a local beat writer say that they think that player will get a heavy workload. Except for Sony Michel. No beat writer is foolish enough to make a prognostication that involves Belichick. In the case of Ronald Jones, one Tampa Bay Times writer has said he thinks Jones will get 15-20 touches while another Tampa Bay Times writer has said he thinks it'll be a timeshare with Barber and Sims. I'm not sure which of those two writers is more credible but I'm not going to trust any local beat writer in June. They are guessing. Jones has had issues at pass protection and has little experience at receiving. He will have to prove himself at those skills to see a high percentage of the snaps. He couldn't have already proven himself at those skills. He is also smallish which makes a heavy workload less likely. He does look special on his college gametape as a rusher. Right now he is very high risk/high reward.
  10. Martavis Bryant traded to the Raiders

    I already liked Cook (adp 158) and Cooper (adp 38) at their adps. But I don't think this helps them much. It could even hurt them. Martavis is a player who commands a double team but doesn't command a lot of targets. His replacement will get nearly as many targets but won't draw nearly as much defensive attention.
  11. Martavis Bryant traded to the Raiders

    Nice one!
  12. Fantasy Football for Beginners

    The daily fantasy sites are pretty self-explanatory. Your team has a total salary. Players have individual salaries. You pick the players who are the best value while keeping their combined individual salaries under the team salary limit. Score more than your opponents.
  13. Fantasy Football for Beginners

  14. Chris Godwin

    It makes sense that DeSean will be gone. Godwin has the speed to replace him. He was a great deep ball receiver in college. Clearly, the Buccaneers wanted to put an emphasis on getting chunk yardage plays by adding DeSean and Godwin last year. Mike Evans is also a good deep ball receiver because of his ability to come down with contested balls. Unfortunately, Jameis Winston is a poor deep ball passer. His bread and butter is short passes especially crossing routes. Last year, Winston's adjusted completion percentage ranked 2nd in the NFL on short passes (0-9 yards) but his adjusted completion percentage ranked 25th in the NFL on deep passes (20+ yards). Having 3 good deep threat wide receivers is wasted on him. If DeSean didn't have $7.5 million guaranteed of his $11 million salary, he could have been cut this year. With the emergence of Godwin, DeSean being traded later this off-season is still within the realm of possibility. I don't think it would be impossible to find a trading partner willing to spend $11 million on DeSean if that team thinks they are lacking a legitimate deep threat receiver.
  15. Chris Godwin

    DeSean Jackson might not be a great fantasy wide receiver but he is a great real football wide receiver. He is one of the best deep threats in the NFL. PFF gave him a grade of 82.5 last year which was the 16th best wide receiver grade overall. Absent an injury, Godwin passing up DeSean for 2 receiver sets isn't realistic. The Buccaneers also potentially have 2 very good tight ends. Jameis Winston likes throwing to tight ends. They are bound to use 2 tight end sets at least some of the time. And Humphries isn't going to completely disappear. He did catch 73.5% of his targets last year. As things stand now, I think Godwin projects to getting 50% of snaps. But I do think he is a player who could go from borderline roster-worthy to a WR2 if an injury occurred to Evans or Jackson.