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Everything posted by michaelredd9

  1. Norv Turner and Ron Rivera have said that Christian McCaffrey will be a workhorse. It it coachspeak or real talk?
  2. How many carries will Christian McCaffrey get?

    McCaffrey averaged 2.3 ypc in the first 8 games and he averaged 4.6 ypc in the last 8 games of the season. It is skewed a bit because had a nice stretch from weeks 10-12 where he averaged 4.4ypc, 4.6ypc, and 8.8 ypc. If you include that 3 game stretch with the first 8 games, he averaged 3.5 ypc over the first 11 games and he averaged 4.0 ypc over the last 6 games of the season including the playoff game. In 3 of those last 6 games, he ran for 6-16, 6-16, and 6-19. So he didn't really end the season as good as the 4.6 ypc stat would indicate. McCaffrey weighed 202 at the combine. There are zero workhorse running backs currently in the NFL that weighed that little at the combine. And when I watch him, he looks smaller than 202 pounds. I don't believe the reports of him gaining weight. He is muscular and has a big upper body. He isn't thick in the ass and thighs. The lower body is more important than the upper body for the success and durability of a running back running the ball. McCaffrey played 70% of snaps last year and only got 117 carries. They did not want him running the ball. They did not have him running the ball much at the end of the year in games that mattered even though Jonathan Stewart was horrible. What has changed from last year to this year other than Jonathan Stewart being replaced by a better running back? CJ Anderson is a good running back. He is a bowling ball. He is the opposite of McCaffrey in every aspect. Their skill sets complement each other well. They are thunder and lightning. CJ will play at least 40% of snaps. CJ will get most of the between-the-tackles carries. CJ will get more total carries than McCaffrey. They will probably end up close in total touches.
  3. Allison has 'established himself' as No. 3 WR http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/nfl/378069/allison-has-established-himself-as-no-3-wr?ls=roto:GB:topheadlines The Green Bay Press-Gazette's Ryan Wood writes Geronimo Allison "has quietly established himself as the team’s No. 3 receiver." "He is always in the right place," Wood continues, "and his combination of size (6-3) and sure hands make him a reliable target." With Randall Cobb out, Allison worked as the No. 2 in the preseason opener, well ahead of the trio of rookies seemingly drafted to replace him. In good shape to win the No. 3 job in an Aaron Rodgers offense, Allison is worth drafting in deeper formats. Source: Green Bay Press-Gazette Aug 14 - 10:10 AM
  4. did you buy high on McKinnon this off-season?

    Priest is a great example. Michael Turner came to mind but he looked awesome at San Diego so his blossoming in Atlanta wasn't a surprise.
  5. Rashaad Penny hand injury

    This is not good for Penny's development. He needs reps. I don't think he'll now be able to win the starting job before their week 7 bye. It could even be a lost year for fantasy purposes. This improves the stock of Mike Davis. He still isn't roster worthy but I will now be keeping an eye on him. Davis only averaged 3.5 ypc last year but he looked good at times. I don't think McKissic or Prosise would be considered for the main ball carrying role.
  6. How many carries will Christian McCaffrey get?

    I think McCaffrey is going to have 125-175 carries. He is small. He was not a good rusher last year. Why have a superstar player do something he isn't very good at and that puts him at great risk of injury? He is great at receiving the ball and that is how he should be featured. It would make no sense to give him many more carries unless he becomes better at running the ball. And most running backs don't improve much at running the ball. When a team has a small and talented running back, coaches always say they are going to use them more. It is usually coachspeak. No coach is going to be honest and say that the player is too small to handle a big workload. The small player certainly doesn't want his coach publicly saying he is too small to handle a big workload. So coaches say the opposite. Coaches are especially going to lie when the diminutive player is a star and a fan favorite. Tarik Cohen will also not get a lot of carries this year. Chris Thompson will again have his carries limited despite his 5.2 ypc career rushing average and the Redskins' need at running back. And Darren Sproles will once again not get a lot of carries. Sproles has never had 100 carries in a season despite having a 4.9 ypc career rushing average. Size matters. I like McCaffrey at his mid-second round adp. I especially like him when he is available in the low second round which is fairly often. I've grabbed him twice in the second round after drafting Antonio Brown in the 1st round. McCaffrey was the 9th highest scoring running back last year despite only having 117 carries. He is for sure going to be used heavily in their passing game again. Injury is the only way he busts. He is available at the point in the draft where there are no more legit tier 1 players available. His ceiling might be lower than tier 1 but he is a very safe bet to end the season in the top 10 running backs.
  7. How many carries will Christian McCaffrey get?

    I don't think CJ Anderson is getting nearly the credit he deserves. He was PFF's 7th highest graded running back last year. His run grade was 6th highest and his pass blocking was 3rd highest. Jonathan Stewart was PFF's 3rd worst graded running back last year and he still outcarried McCaffrey 198-117. Stewart wasn't even a good pass blocker last year. CJ Anderson is hugh improvement on Stewart on every level. McCaffrey is a great receiver. He is a below average rusher and abysmal at pass blocking. I don't see why the Panthers would want to increase his carries when he isn't good at rushing the ball and his small body probably can't handle the wear and tear.
  8. did you buy high on McKinnon this off-season?

    I'm torn on McKinnon. I hate drafting a player based on situation. It isn't often that a player who wasn't good enough to be "the guy" on one team suddenly blossoms on another team just because it was a good situation. Wherever you go, you take yourself with you. But he is a great receiver and Shanahan produces fantasy elite running backs. I wish he was available in the 5th round. Where he is being drafted, I'd rather have Joe Mixon. Mixon has the body type that can handle a workhorse load.
  9. Deeper Sleepers

    I'm not very pro-Carson. I am anti-Penny. I think Penny's most likely scenario is bust. He still has a 5th round adp. Carson's adp has risen from the 14th round to the 9th round so a lot of his value is gone. But if Carson does win the starting job and averages something like 12 carries for 53 yards with 2 receptions, that is nice asset to have on a fantasy bench. But his situation is too uncertain and his ceiling is too low for me to use a 9th round pick on him.
  10. The Cowboys' wide receiving crew is the most unpredictable in the NFL. Who do you think will do best fantasywise?
  11. Baldinger on Darnold

    I'm doubtful that they'd pay McCown $10 million if they intended on him being a backup. But with Bowles likely on the hot seat, he'll play whoever gives them the best chance to win. My guess is that is McCown. Starting Darnold would be playing for the future. I would definitely rather have McCown at quarterback if I owned any Jets' receivers. Receivers and tight ends have done well with McCown at quarterback. Rookie quarterbacks rarely produce good fantasy receivers or tight ends.
  12. I voted for Cole. I think Dak is going to lean on him. Dak likes the short passing game and Beasley's quickness allows him to get instant separation. It's a perfect match. In 2016, Dak had a passer rating of 110.2 on quick passes which was second best in the league. Beasley was the main reason for that success. However, injury is a big concern for Cole because of his smallness. Every hit he takes over the middle is a risk of injury. But I think he'll be ppr gold while healthy. If Beasley does get hurt, I'll probably make lowball trade offers for Hurns since he'll probably take over slot duties and could become Dak's favorite short passing game target. Galloping Michael Gallup is intriguing. I usually avoid rookies and I probably won't draft Gallup but he is in a great situation. Beasley, Hurns, and Austin are all at their best while playing the slot. Hurns will probably be forced to play on the outside and he isn't athletic enough or fast enough to get separation. Getting separation is necessary to be effective on the outside. Gallup could end up being Prescott's favorite downfield target because he can get separation. And while Dak may prefer the short passing game, he is effective throwing downfield. He only threw deep on 8.8% of passes last year which ranked 27th in the league but his adjusted completion percentage on deep passes was 4th best in league. His passer rating on deep passes was 106.2. The Dallas coaching staff will look at the metrics and will probably try to get him to pass deep more frequently. Gallup could be the beneficiary of that increased deep passing.
  13. Your Homer Team Training Camp Chatter

    if it's what you say I love it especially later in the summer.
  14. Interesting Mayfield observation

    It seems weird to me that it is expected that a player would be working out privately during training camp. Isn't training camp rigorous enough without adding an extra morning workout? If Hue thinks that a player should be working out more then why doesn't he make it part of practice? And if I were Mayfield, I would want to come to practice fresh and filled with energy instead of being worn out from a 3 hour morning workout.
  15. Rex Burkhead listed as starter

    Burkhead does have some power but he isn't a good rusher. His 4.73 40 time is probably the culprit. He averaged 4.1 ypc last year running behind the offensive line that PFF ranked 3rd in the league. PFF gave Burkhead a run grade of 59.0 last year. He did get a pass block grade of 79.8 and a receiving grade of 85.1. He is Brandon Bolden but with receiving skills. Belichick probably loves him and he will have a role because of his passing game skills. Belichick might even let him be the main ball carrier for a couple of games as a reward for embodying "the Patriot Way". But Belichick likes to have a more effective run game than Burkhead can provide. His adp has risen from the 7th round to the 5th round since the Sony Michel injury. I think the earliest I would consider drafting him is the 12th round.
  16. Rex Burkhead listed as starter

    Burkhead listed RB1 on Pats first depth chart http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/nfl/377744/burkhead-listed-rb1-on-pats-first-depth-chart?ls=roto:NE:topheadlines Rex Burkhead is listed ahead of rookie Sony Michel on the Patriots' first unofficial depth chart. Burkhead was always going to play an integral role in New England's offensive game plan and being listed as the team's starting back only confirms that notion. James White is listed as the other starter with free agent acquisition Jeremy Hill slotting in as No. 3 ahead of Mike Gillislee. Whether Michel (knee) is ready to go in Week 1 or not, Burkhead's seventh-round ADP is sure to skyrocket in the coming weeks. Source: Pro Football Talk Aug 5 - 1:22 PM
  17. Courtland Sutton

    I'm surprised at how little love Case is receiving. He was very good last year. He did start slowly but that was to be expected since he hadn't practiced with the 1st stringers in the preseason. Once he got going, he really got going. He had better than a 100 quarterback rating in 6 of the last 8 games of the season. He only had 23 total touchdowns on the season but had 16 touchdowns in the last 8 games and was the 5th highest scoring fantasy quarterback over that span. His second half of the season was so strong that he ended up with second highest qbr on the season trailing only Carson Wentz. It is too bad that Denver's defense is good. A bad defense is a fantasy quarterback's best friend. Denver has the receivers to put up big numbers if they are trailing. But it looks like their defense isn't likely to let that happen. The Vikings defense didn't let Case put up much garbage time stats either. The Vikings trailed by more than 7 points only 2 times last year. So it's not surprising that Case had 10 second quarter touchdowns but only 9 second half touchdowns. The Vikings were almost always ahead in the second half and played conservatively. Every year the quarterback position gets deeper. There are 20 fantasy quarterbacks who are roster worthy this year. I am totally comfortable starting 15 of those quarterbacks. I see no reason to draft a quarterback before the 10th round. In the 10th round, quarterbacks like Ben Roethlisberger, Marcus Mariota, Jimmy Garoppolo, Philip Rivers, Andrew Luck, and Matt Stafford can be available. It isn't possible to know which ones will be available in round 10 but a couple of them will be available. Case Keenum is available even later. If I wait until rounds 10-12 to draft my first quarterback and there is a run on backup quarterbacks before I can grab a quarterback, Case Keenum is a nice fallback option. His adp ranges from round 15 to round 20. He is also a low-cost second quarterback to draft. It is nice having 2 legit quarterbacks to be able to play matchups. And it is easy to justify using the roster space since so little draft capital was used if your first quarterback is drafted in the 10th round.
  18. Courtland Sutton

    I have trouble believing that Sutton will do much if Thomas and Sanders are healthy. Although, having a new quarterback does take away a bit of the veteran advantage. Regardless, this is nice news for dynasty. And an injury to Thomas or Sanders could change Sutton's redraft potential considerably. Rookie Sutton already claiming Broncos' No. 3 WR job? http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000944493/article/rookie-sutton-already-claiming-broncos-no-3-wr-job While Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have been established as one of the league's most productive receiving tandems, the Broncos have struggled to find a reliable third option in the aerial attack going back to the end of the Peyton Manning era. Judging from the early indications out of Englewood this summer, the search is over. Second-round rookie Courtland Sutton's penchant for pulling off highlight-reel catches has been "the talk of camp" early on, NFL Network's James Palmer reported on Friday's edition of Inside Training Camp Live. The highest praise has come from Denver's veteran cornerbacks who told Palmer, "He is the third receiver. It's not even a competition. Everyone on this team knows it." At 6-foot-3 with a wide enough body to box out defensive backs, Sutton is a godsend for a red-zone offense that ranked last in the NFL in 2017. Jump balls in his direction are not just 50-50 attempts, coach Vance Joseph emphasized, because Sutton plays even bigger than his size. The one fly in the ointment is route running, which Denver's cornerbacks acknowledged isn't up to par just yet. It's clear that Sutton has the edge over Carlos Henderson and fellow rookie DaeSean Hamilton for the No. 3 role, but week-to-week consistency will be an issue until quarterback Case Keenum trusts him to be where he's supposed to be on every route.
  19. Corey Coleman traded to Bills

    Bills trade for WR Corey Coleman from Browns http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/nfl/377751/bills-trade-for-wr-corey-coleman-from-browns?ls=roto:BUF:topheadlines Bills acquired WR Corey Coleman from the Browns in exchange for an undisclosed pick in the 2019 NFL draft. It's the second major deal between these two franchises since Tyrod Taylor was sent packing to Cleveland back in March. Coleman is just two seasons removed from being selected No. 15 overall but has missed 13 of a possible 32 games to a pair of broken hands. His presence should immediately slide second-year receiver Zay Jones down Buffalo's depth chart and eat into what was supposed to be sheer volume for Kelvin Benjamin. This move also creates an immediate scenario for Dez Bryant to sign with the Browns. Standout rookie Antonio Callaway is expected to make noise as the team's No. 3 receiver barring any addition. Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter Aug 5 - 9:20 PM
  20. Courtland Sutton

    Is that because Sanders is a possession receiver more similar to Thielen? At first glance, Thielen looks like he had a better fantasy year than Diggs. Thielen had 91 catches and 1,276 yards whereas Diggs only had 64 catches for 849 yards. But Diggs had 8 touchdowns to Thielen's 4 touchdowns. And Diggs missed 2 games with a groin injury. So Thielen averaged 15.3 fantasy points per game and Diggs averaged 14.2 fantasy points per game in the regular season. If you add the Vikings' 2 playoff games to the total, Thielen averaged 14.6 fantasy points per game in 18 games and Diggs averaged 15.0 points per game in 16 games. Demaryius Thomas is a great receiver. He finished as the 9th, 16th, and 16th highest scoring wide receiver over the last 3 years with some of the worst quarterbacking in the league. Case Keenum is a big upgrade at quarterback. Case was very fantasy-friendly to the Vikings' skill players last year. Thielen and Diggs were the 11th and 13th highest scoring wide receivers in points per game and Kyle Rudolph was the 8th highest scoring tight end. I think all aspects of the Broncos offense are going to benefit from the addition of Case.
  21. Rex Burkhead listed as starter

    I kind of know how Bill Belichick feels. I asked for a Sony for Christmas when I was a kid. Instead I got a Sanyo. It took a $hit after a month.
  22. Rex Burkhead listed as starter

    It'll be interesting how soon Michel can win the starting job if he misses all of the preseason. My guess is mid-season would be quickest. But it could be a lost year. Belichick isn't going to put a player on the field who he doesn't trust. I'm not touching Michel in any drafts unless he falls dramatically.
  23. Corey Coleman traded to Bills

    Nine straight Browns first-round picks gone before playing out rookie deals https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/08/06/nine-straight-browns-first-round-picks-gone-before-playing-out-rookie-deals/ From 2011, when the NFL adopted a new rookie salary structure that meant every first-round pick got a four-year contract with a fifth-year option, not a single Browns first-round pick has made it to the fifth-year option season. The Browns’ nine draft picks from 2011 through 2016 lasted an average of 2.3 seasons in Cleveland. Here’s a review of those nine players: 2016: Corey Coleman lasted two years before the Browns traded him. 2015: Danny Shelton lasted three years before the Browns traded him. 2015: Cam Erving lasted two years before the Browns traded him. 2014: Justin Gilbert lasted two years before the Browns traded him. 2014: Johnny Manziel lasted two years before the Browns released him. 2013: Barkevious Mingo lasted three years before the Browns traded him. 2012: Trent Richardson lasted one year before the Browns traded him. 2012: Brandon Weeden lasted two years before the Browns released him. 2011: Phil Taylor lasted four years before the Browns released him.
  24. Deeper Sleepers

    Seattle's offensive lines has been bad. PFF started ranking offensive lines in 2009. Seattle's offensive line hasn't finished in the top half of the league even once. Duane Brown, while good, isn't enough to end that streak. I do understand Seattle putting so few resources into the offensive line. Russell Wilson might be the best quarterback at scrambling in the history of the NFL. He needs offensive line protection less than any quarterback. It seems strategic to use salary cap dollars and draft picks on the defensive side of the ball because the offense will always be decent as long as Russell Wilson is quarterback. Seattle's Offensive Line Rankings according to PFF 2009 17th 2010 22nd 2011 29th 2012 20th 2013 27th 2014 19th 2015 30th 2016 32nd 2017 27th
  25. Rex Burkhead listed as starter

    I have trouble believing that Burkhead is what Belichick wants in his main ball carrier. He seems more of a Swiss Army knife guy having a passing down role on offense. Although I didn't think Dion Lewis was what Belichick wanted in his main ball carrier either. If Michel doesn't get the job, I think either Jeremy Hill or Mike Gillislee will end up getting the 1st and 2nd down carries. My guess is that Jeremy Hill has the better chance to win that job.