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Everything posted by michaelredd9

  1. GBP backfield

    That might have had more to do with the receiving skills of the running backs. Eddie Lacy and James Starks weren't great receivers but they combined for 60 and 63 receptions in 2014 and 2015. Ty Montgomery had 44 receptions while only playing 36% of snaps in 2016. Although, Ty's use was unique enough that it is hard to draw any parallels to other running backs who will be used differently.
  2. Is Evan Engram Overrated?

    Evan Engram was extremely inefficient last year. He caught 55.7% of his targets. That was by far the lowest catch rate of any of the top 20 fantasy tight ends. In fact, a lot of the elite tight ends had a catch rate well over 70%. Was it because Eli was inaccurate? Probably not. Overall, 75.8% of Eli passes were considered catchable which was 5th best in the league. Engram dropped 11 passes according to PFF and he dropped 5 passes according to Fox Sports. That was the most dropped passes for a tight end according to PFF and the second most dropped passes for a tight end according to Fox Sports. PFF gave him an overall grade of 42.2 which ranked 67th out of 71 tight ends. PFF gave him a receiving grade of 55.8 which isn't much better. Did Evan get 64 catches, 722 yards, and 6 touchdowns solely because he was a warm body on the field and someone had to get some stats? Is Engram set up for a sophomore slump because Eli will have superior receivers to throw to?
  3. Is Evan Engram Overrated?

    I am maybe being too harsh on him. He was a rookie. Tight ends who become great are often ineffective their rookie year. The learning curve is slow for tight ends.
  4. FTSA Experts Draft

    Derrick Henry at #40 is not a good pick. A running back who doesn't get receptions has a ceiling of RB2. Henry has had 11 and 13 receptions the last two seasons. But he probably won't even be a RB2 because he will likely play second fiddle to Dion Lewis. The Titans didn't give Lewis $8.25 million guaranteed to be a complimentary player. Unless Lewis gets hurt, Henry will probably gets stats similar to last year when he played 39.92% of snaps and was the 37th highest scoring fantasy running back.
  5. GBP backfield

    I don't think I'll even need any luck. Jones' floor is RB2 unless he gets hurt. I'll probably need some luck with Montgomery. But at his adp, he is just a flyer.
  6. FTSA Experts Draft

    I like Michael Thomas and Davante Adams at 12 and 17. They both have virtually a zero percent chance of busting.
  7. GBP backfield

    I am salivating over the low fantasy cost and hugh potential of this backfield. An Aaron Rodgers led offense will produce fantasy points at running back. And the Packers have one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the NFL. Even with the multitude of injuries on their offensive line last season, they led the NFL with 2.04 yards-before-contact on carries. That included Bryan Bulaga missing 11 games and David Bakhtiari missing 4 games. Those two are arguably the best offensive tackle tandem in the league and they are expected to return healthy. What McCarthy said was pretty much a non-statement. It was coachdoublespeak. After saying they would have a committee approach at running back, he said "But if one of them would emerge as that full-time guy then you have to have that ability to ... adjust to that" In other words, it won't necessarily be a committee. Jones and Montgomery will be the ones that I target. Aaron Jones has the potential to be a fantasy stud. McCarthy might even have Jones penciled in as the starter but doesn't want to announce him as the starter in order to keep a fire lit under him. Jones is also likely going to start the season with a one game suspension. So it makes sense to wait until a few games into the season to officially make him the starter. I am hoping the news that they are planning to have a RBBC and that Jones will be suspended will cause his adp to fall further. Jones does need to improve at pass protection. I will be watching him closely in the preseason to make sure he has improved at it. Nothing will make him lose the chance to be the starter like allowing Aaron Rodgers to get blowed up. Montgomery is a wildcard but his adp of 132.76 is a small price to pay for a player who has the chance to be PPR gold. Williams could do well for the likely one game suspension of Jones or if Jones got hurt, but I think his best scenario is being part of a committee as long as Jones is healthy. This situation isn't like drafting a Bill Belichick running back. McCarthy has very rarely used a committee approach at running back in the past. Even when there were multiple running backs used in a season, like last year, you usually knew who was going to be the main ball carrier going into each game. Mike McCarthy is not a man of mystery. He is a straight shooter. And drafting Aaron Jones isn't going to require a 3rd round fantasy pick. If it did, I would pass because of the murkiness of the situation. Jones has an adp of 82.86. Ty Montgomery can be had at the point in the draft where people are drafting defenses and pure handcuffs. The Packers running backs are low cost/high risk/high reward options. But can a player even be considered high risk when the cost is so low?
  8. Buccs might be interested in Adrian Peterson?

    Some smaller running backs can handle a heavy workload. It is hard to predict who can and who cannot handle it until it happens. But it is extremely rare for a team to give a small rookie running back the opportunity to prove that they can handle a heavy workload in their first year. Teams like to protect their investment and play it safe for a year or two with the small guys. I believe the last time a rookie running back lighter than 215 pounds had 200 carries was Chris Johnson in 2008.
  9. Buccs might be interested in Adrian Peterson?

    Every running back taken with a high draft pick has had a local beat writer say that they think that player will get a heavy workload. Except for Sony Michel. No beat writer is foolish enough to make a prognostication that involves Belichick. In the case of Ronald Jones, one Tampa Bay Times writer has said he thinks Jones will get 15-20 touches while another Tampa Bay Times writer has said he thinks it'll be a timeshare with Barber and Sims. I'm not sure which of those two writers is more credible but I'm not going to trust any local beat writer in June. They are guessing. Jones has had issues at pass protection and has little experience at receiving. He will have to prove himself at those skills to see a high percentage of the snaps. He couldn't have already proven himself at those skills. He is also smallish which makes a heavy workload less likely. He does look special on his college gametape as a rusher. Right now he is very high risk/high reward.
  10. Martavis Bryant traded to the Raiders

    I already liked Cook (adp 158) and Cooper (adp 38) at their adps. But I don't think this helps them much. It could even hurt them. Martavis is a player who commands a double team but doesn't command a lot of targets. His replacement will get nearly as many targets but won't draw nearly as much defensive attention.
  11. Martavis Bryant traded to the Raiders

    Nice one!
  12. Chris Godwin

    Chris Godwin has a lot of physical talent. Is he going to breakout in his second year or are there too many mouths to feed? Chris Godwin 'making a lot of plays' each day Jun 12 - 10:12 PM http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/12201/chris-godwin The Tampa Bay Times' Rick Stroud singled out sophomore WR Chris Godwin among his Bucs' standouts this spring. Per Stroud, Godwin "makes a lot of plays every day" in practice and has shined into minicamp. Godwin has been the subject of constant praise throughout the offseason after he finished his rookie year on a high note down the stretch and performed admirably in spot starts. OC Todd Monken has said Godwin has earned the right to start and should see heavy snaps in three-wide sets if the coaching staff allows him to leapfrog Adam Humphries as the No. 3 wideout. Jun 12 - 10:12 PM Source: Chris Godwin on Twitter (That should say Rick Stroud on Twitter)
  13. Fantasy Football for Beginners

    The daily fantasy sites are pretty self-explanatory. Your team has a total salary. Players have individual salaries. You pick the players who are the best value while keeping their combined individual salaries under the team salary limit. Score more than your opponents.
  14. Fantasy Football for Beginners

  15. Chris Godwin

    It makes sense that DeSean will be gone. Godwin has the speed to replace him. He was a great deep ball receiver in college. Clearly, the Buccaneers wanted to put an emphasis on getting chunk yardage plays by adding DeSean and Godwin last year. Mike Evans is also a good deep ball receiver because of his ability to come down with contested balls. Unfortunately, Jameis Winston is a poor deep ball passer. His bread and butter is short passes especially crossing routes. Last year, Winston's adjusted completion percentage ranked 2nd in the NFL on short passes (0-9 yards) but his adjusted completion percentage ranked 25th in the NFL on deep passes (20+ yards). Having 3 good deep threat wide receivers is wasted on him. If DeSean didn't have $7.5 million guaranteed of his $11 million salary, he could have been cut this year. With the emergence of Godwin, DeSean being traded later this off-season is still within the realm of possibility. I don't think it would be impossible to find a trading partner willing to spend $11 million on DeSean if that team thinks they are lacking a legitimate deep threat receiver.
  16. Chris Godwin

    DeSean Jackson might not be a great fantasy wide receiver but he is a great real football wide receiver. He is one of the best deep threats in the NFL. PFF gave him a grade of 82.5 last year which was the 16th best wide receiver grade overall. Absent an injury, Godwin passing up DeSean for 2 receiver sets isn't realistic. The Buccaneers also potentially have 2 very good tight ends. Jameis Winston likes throwing to tight ends. They are bound to use 2 tight end sets at least some of the time. And Humphries isn't going to completely disappear. He did catch 73.5% of his targets last year. As things stand now, I think Godwin projects to getting 50% of snaps. But I do think he is a player who could go from borderline roster-worthy to a WR2 if an injury occurred to Evans or Jackson.
  17. joe mixon(insight needed from those who watched/followed him last year)

    One curious thing about his PFF grading is that his receiving grade was only 52.7. During last year's draft process, he was touted as having wide receiver skills. And his receiving stats were good last year. He had 30 receptions while only playing 39.92% of snaps. His 30 receptions came on only 34 targets which was a catch rate of 88.2%. That was second best in the league trailing only Dion Lewis. He averaged 9.6 yards per catch which was 6th best among running backs. He had the 9th best yards per route run for a running back with 1.83. He had 1 dropped pass. How is it possible for a running back that catches 88.2% of his targets and averages 9.6 yards per reception to receive such a low PFF receiving grade?
  18. joe mixon(insight needed from those who watched/followed him last year)

    I like Joe Mixon. PFF gave him a grade of 82.4 so I think it's safe to say his lack of production was the fault of their horrible offensive line. Their offensive line should be significantly improved with the additions of Cordy Glenn and Billy Price. He is a safe pick because he will get heavy use. I think his floor is 250 carries and 50 receptions. With his adp of 24.80, you might need to use a 2nd round pick if you want him.
  19. Mr Irrelevant Trey Quinn

    I'm usually skeptical about anything coaches say in May or June. But Jay Gruden has now praised Trey Quinn twice which gives it a bit more credence than a one time coachspeak compliment. Quinn being a quick slot receiver meshes well with Alex Smith's short passing game. It might be tough for him to crack the starting lineup this year but Jay Gruden is the type of coach who wouldn't be afraid of starting a rookie over an established veteran. Quinn is a nice dynasty stash at a minimum. Trey Quinn impresses Jay Gruden to close OTAs Jun 10 - 9:45 AM Redskins coach Jay Gruden continued to praise WR Trey Quinn to end Washington's final OTA session. "I’ve been very impressed with Trey," Gruden said. "He’s learning from Jamison [Crowder], which is good, but he can also line up in different spots, so Trey is a guy that we’re going to rely on to be able to play multiple spots." The final pick of this year’s draft, Quinn led the NCAA with 114 receptions in 2017. The initial excitement building for Quinn is a bit ahead of true rookie season expectations as he’ll still be playing behind Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson to begin 2018, but Quinn has made more than a positive impression in his first team activity. He should be a lock for the 53-man roster in a competition with Brian Quick, Maurice Harris and Robert Davis for the remaining wide receiver spots. Crowder is in the final year of his rookie contract, making Quinn a stash in dynasty formats. Jun 10 - 9:45 AM Source: NBC Sports Washington Gruden on 7th-round WR Quinn: Silent assassin Jun 6 - 1:46 PM Coach Jay Gruden raved about seventh-round WR Trey Quinn, calling him a "silent assassin" and a very "quarterback-friendly target." Quinn was "Mr. Irrelevant" as the last pick in April's draft, but he's far from irrelevant and is even expected to make the team at this point. An LSU transfer, Quinn posted a 114/1,236/13 line at SMU opposite Courtland Sutton. He's a vacuum who catches everything and has exceptional quickness at 5'11/203. Quinn should endear himself to the coaches much like Ryan Grant. Jun 6 - 1:46 PM Source: JP Finlay on Twitter Redskins make WR Trey Quinn Mr. Irrelevant Apr 28 - 6:54 PM Redskins selected SMU WR Trey Quinn with the No. 256 overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft. This makes Quinn 2018's Mr. Irrelevant. Quinn (5’11/203) was SMU’s unheralded bookend for Courtland Sutton, transferring from LSU to spend one year with the Mustangs and tally a 114/1,236/13 receiving line, earning first-team All-American Athletic Conference. PFF College credited Quinn with 4.36 yards per route run, highest among all draft-eligible receivers. On slot routes alone, Quinn caught 75% of his targets with seven TDs and had the lowest drop rate (1.7%) in this receiver class. Quinn isn’t exceptionally straight-line fast (4.55) but he is quick in a short area (6.91 three-cone time) and catches everything. Apr 28 - 6:54 PM
  20. Mr Irrelevant Trey Quinn

    It's too bad the Redskins have Crowder. I could get a lot more excited about this kid in redraft if the Redskins didn't already have a good slot receiver. Gruden can say they'll line Quinn up in multiple spots but that is probably just coachspeak. Quinn is neither tall nor fast. He isn't suited to play on the outside. Crowder isn't suited to play outside receiver either. Crowder isn't so good that the Redskins will feel the need to re-sign him next year but he is good enough that he isn't likely to get beat out by a rookie this year.
  21. Julian Edelman facing 4 game ped suspension

    I'm bumping Jordan Matthews up a few notches with this news. He makes the most sense to play the slot while Edelman is out. Chris Hogan can play the slot but he is needed more on the outside with Brandin Cooks' departure. Jordan Matthews had the most yardage from the slot in the NFL from 2014 to 2016. He also dropped 21 passes during that 3 year span so he'll have to have good hands in the preseason to get the starting nod. If he is the starting slot, I'll consider starting him in weeks 1-4 (I'll probably wait to see how he does week 1 before taking the risk). I was already thinking of drafting Matthews because of Edelman's high injury risk. His adp will certainly go up from it's current 190.19 but he should still be available in rounds 13-16 in a lot of leagues. He could be a great daily fantasy play in weeks 1-4 as well.
  22. Should The Commissioner Review Lineups On A Weekly Basis?

    OP is probably talking about when people start a player on bye or who is injured. I don't think it is the commissioner's responsibility to babysit league members and it isn't fair to interfere. If someone starts someone who is out, it is on them. I do like when league rules require a league member to pay a $10 fine for each time they start someone who is out. That seems to do a good job of solving the problem of absentee league members.
  23. Hyde-Chubb-Duke: Browns backfield

    I could see Hyde getting traded this year if Chubb is playing well. His salary is very tradeable this season at only $1.5 million.
  24. Julian Edelman facing 4 game ped suspension

    Fantasywise, I like this. This makes it more likely he'll be healthy for the fantasy playoffs and it'll lower his adp.
  25. Oakland Backfield

    I'm apt to believe that the player we saw in college and in his first two years in the NFL is the real Amari Cooper and that last year is the aberration. Derek Carr said that Amari played on one foot last year. That makes more sense than him suddenly being bad after being so consistently good. He is not overvalued at his adp of 38.55.