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Everything posted by Tford

  1. JStew 2.0? That's a kiss of death if I've ever seen one.
  2. Hard to argue against Jarrad Davis in IDP.
  3. Commish Trade

    I don't care what you do. Both of your teams suck.
  4. Why is this relevant? MFL uses Rotoworld to define what position a player is classified as. So Suggs owners in MFL leagues are likely to see an asset take a big hit to his value.
  5. IDP Information

    The IDP Free Agent report comes out on Tuesday.
  6. What happened to Axe Elf?

    Mucca is undefeated and leading the league at 4-0. Baby Jane is one of two teams that are 0-4.
  7. Dynasty question - opinions on PS options

    You can't answer that question unless you describe your team (active roster and other PS roster guys) and the league you play in. At least I can't anyways. If I am in a trade-heavy league where I know that I can flip a guy if he pans out, I am more likely to go with the safer bet simply because I know that I can cash in on value. That said, these leagues are usually trade-heavy because of scarcity of talent because they are deep so usually I won't have the option of who I want for a PS player very often. On a team note, if the players I am evaluating are in an area of strength for my team, I am going to gamble on the guy with the highest ceiling because he has a better shot of improving my team. If it is in an area of weakness, I am more likely to take the safest player with maybe less upside to get a better chance of getting a contributor. Finally, on relative position note, if I am a contender, I am likely choosing the player who I think has a quicker path to playing time in case an injury strikes and I need points right now. However, if I am rebuilding, I am more amenable to taking a player that I may need to wait longer on.
  8. Top IDP Rookies

    FWIW Jordan played almost exclusively with his hand in the dirt in the HOF game. Not exactly proof positive but at least a small measure of relief for dynasty owners that drafted him to play DE.
  9. When the NHL did this, I loved it. Especially the part where Phil Kessel got picked last.
  10. Likely going to drop some lame duck leagues that saw the lockout crush the renewal chances there so I'm going to have some room for a new league or two. I know there are a couple college buffs at the huddle, what are the odds of getting a dynasty league with developmental players in it? Nothing too outrageous but a couple college players per team wouldn't be outlandish. PPR, IDP and contracts would be a must for me. Any interest?
  11. Still adding owners! Signup in the linked forum above.
  12. Lots of bad blood in here and I don't really know why. Maybe I'm crazy but I don't really see why Baby Jane is getting crucified in here. 1) Baby Jane has opinions on FF. Agree with them on not, that's relevant for this forum. Quite frankly, there are some tendencies in his drafting and methodology that I actually (I refuse to spell it your way AE, that's the line) agree with. Argue about the message, not the messenger. 2) Sure, there was a curveball in the all-waiver league that some people (many who aren't even in the league) were upset over. Am I upset? More at myself for not catching it than anything. I still intend to find a way to beat AE during our matchup and like everyone else, despite this thread, I will play in that league to win. Understandably, others may not share my view of how that went down but that's my stance. I have bigger problems to get bent out of shape over. 3) I've yet to see AE fall prey to some of the antagonizing that he's endured thus far. Antagonizing that I don't think is warranted to be honest. Troll gets thrown around a lot in this thread and another one. I believe that it is many huddlers that are attempting to troll AE and he isn't taking the bait. Frustration leads to an ignore. Maybe it's better that way but there are a lot of huddlers who are looking like the childish ones in my opinion. 4) Love him or hate him, he's given life to a board that has been a wasteland for months. I understand that my viewpoint might earn me an ignore as well. So be it. The threat of an ignore doesn't change how I think about it nor my willingness to share my opinion. -TJ
  13. I like the outside the box thinking here but there are a couple statistical flaws here. Nothing to do with the data itself, but straight math no-nos. Some points I took away from this. 1) In statistics, you cannot apply any mathematically derived solution of a subset onto a whole set and keep it valid. The qualifier that causes it to be a subset in the first place contains assumptions or data characteristics that are not inherit to every piece of data in the whole set. In this case, the extrapolation of win % without a QB within the "win" subset cannot be applied to the "total games" whole set. Other factors caused the win subset to be a win in the first place. Things like good games from your other players and/or a bad game from your opponent. Those factors are not always present in the other data subset "losses". Therefore any derived number from the wins subset, can't apply to the other games, it can only by compared to a similar derivation to the whole set. In order for your win % extrapolation to hold true, every game would have to involve good games from your other players or a bad game from your opponent. We already know this not to be true. 2) I like where you were going with the Average wins for a team with a top-3 QB. I think that analysis is much more relevant. Since we know that in every league with an even amount of teams and a 13 games fantasy regular season, the mean win average must be 6.5, determining the true mean of the top QB subset and comparing that true mean to the whole set true mean of 6.5 will hold much more relevance if we assume that fantasy regular season follow a normal distribution (most things do). That said, three things prevent your analysis from sticking. - In order to compared mean to mean, you need to know what the standard deviation of both the set and subset is to determine whether the null hypothesis is true (subset mean = true mean or rather, subset mean is not significantly different than true mean). In this case, you are trying to prove just that. If the subset mean is the same as the set mean, then a top QB should not provide any statistical advantage. However, simply stating that your calculated subset mean is 6.6 is only half the answer. You need to use standard deviation to determine how far away from the mean is normal. A normal distribution of 6.5 mean and 0.1 standard deviation is drastically different from the same mean and 1.5 standard deviation. You reference CV (coefficient of variation) in your article later on. In this case, a lower CV might prove the null hypothesis false whereas a higher CV might prove the null hypothesis true. - In order to complete that, you need a much larger sample set on the order of 1000s of leagues. You need to eliminate bias from the data set as much as you can. Did the top 3 QB owner tend to draft WR heavy? Did he always lead out RB? Was it the same guy in multiple leagues? You need the answer to all of these questions and any question like it to be sometimes, not usually or seldom. If you cannot say that, then your sample set is not randomized enough to be considered a whole set. - Top 3 QB seems to be an arbitrary number. Using your SOFA classic league, the pick difference between QB3 and QB4 drafted was 7, 7, 7, 5, 2, 1 and 2 going back to 2006. What makes the QB3 selecting team so markedly different from the QB4 selecting team? In addition, sometimes the QB3 was selected as high as round 1 and others it was selected as low as round 5. A round cutoff would have more appropriate since I would argue that the guy who took Drew Brees at QB3 (5.06) in 2007 (whoever drafted for the The Huddle oddly enough) or the guy who took Aaron Rodgers at QB3 (4.12) in 2009, got much better value than the guy who took Drew Brees at QB3 (1.11) in 2012. You go on to speak about VBD in your article but QB3 in round 4-5 is markedly different than VBD in round 1-2. I would argue that lumping those teams into the same data subset isn't as valid as lumping all round 1-2 QB drafting teams together and seeing what analysis that holds. 3) Your analysis involving CV and miss rate is spot on and is very relevant in my opinion. It highlights the disparity between what RB1/WR1 you can draft in round 1-2 versus waiting a round because you drafted QB versus the disparity (smaller) of the QBs were you to wait. I don't know if Olympic miss rate is relevant simply because a top 3 QB drafted will likely be started for his fantasy team every week he is healthy. That said, major points were not made off of Olympic MR so it doesn't really matter. 4) Finally, and I only bring this up because I am an engineer and I am a nerd, theorems are statements that are proven factual time and time again through multiple proofs and derivations from other theorems and accepted fact. Theory, in a statistical sense, is a hypothesis that has been rigorously tested and being proven true through repeated mathematical test. It is not a law as it may not have yet been tested under specific conditions which may test its validity. What you have is a hypothesis. A proposed explanation for a result, behavior or phenomenon that can be tested to prove/disprove validity. All in all, good read.
  14. Still looking to fill up, visit the subforum!
  15. Enjoy your cold beer and hot dogs while I grind it out at work.
  16. Happy Independence Day Americans!

    That's awesome. Pretty cool that your boy will always have a great party on his birthday no matter how old he is.
  17. Bump for the night crowd.
  18. New league forum
  19. I've asked for a new subforum for this league concept so we can discuss particulars.
  20. Timely. I'm still interested in moving forward with this one. Those of you who call yourselves "draftniks" need to be in this league. Drop me a PM.
  21. Been working through a few games I've picked up since late last year as well as a couple old favorites from the Playstation store. Some of the games are obviously kid games, some aren't. Here's a quick rundown. Castlevania: Lords of Shadow (PS3 / Action-Adventure) - Single Player not for kids; Major Gore and Violence Graphics: 5 out of 5 Controls: 4 out of 5 Story: 4.5 out of 5 Replay value: 1.5 out of 5 This is a beautifully designed game. From harsh winter storms to lush green forest, this game takes full advantage of a high definition TV. The last Castlevania game I had played previous to this was Symphony of the Night, another great game that you can pick up on the Playstation Store, so I had high hopes for this one. New to the Castlevania series is the God of War-like "normal sized guy versus amazingly large statue/monster/god". It's a fun boss battle but the climbing controls are clunky. Also new is the timing sequences to finish off bosses. It adds an interesting dynamic to an already interesting combat system. The combat setup is very fluid and easy to learn but hard to master. Unfortunately, after an amazing ending sequence with a great twist, there isn't much to do other than 110% complete the levels you've already beaten. DC Universe Online (PS3 / MMORPG) - Kid Friendly but online, some violence (I probably wouldn't play the villain side with my kids) Graphics: 3.5 out of 5 Controls: 3 out of 5 Story: 4.5 out of 5 Replay Value: 2 out of 5 Past the initial feeling you get from creating your own hero/villain and meeting all of the characters in the DC Comics Universe, I didn't really like this game. It's a monthly subscription MMORPG so the social aspect of the game is supposed to be very important yet everything in the game except for the very end doesn't need a group to accomplish. The social aspects of the game are very clunky for the PS3 but I'd imagine it would be better for PC. Finally, the game is too easy to get to the max level of 30 and is frighteningly boring after you get there. Worst part? You can't resell the game after you install it Donkey Kong Country (Wii / Platform) - Very Kid friendly, minor cartoon violence Graphics: 3 out of 5 Controls: 4 out of 5 Story: 3 out of 5 Replay Value: 3 out of 5 Family Value: 4 out of 5 Great game for playing with kids. There is a two player option in the game where both monkeys can play at once but Diddy Kong can hang onto Donkey Kong's back when things get difficult. Diddy can still shoot enemies from Donkey's back but doesn't need to complete the jumping sequences. The game plays identically to the SNES versions of Donkey Kong Country with some creative twists on levels. Right along with the New Super Mario Brothers for the Wii, this game is perfect for a video game you can play comfortably with your kids. Arc Rise Fantasia (Wii / JRPG) - Fairly Kid friendly but single player RPG, cartoon sword violence Graphics: 2.5 out of 5 Controls: 3.5 out of 5 Story: 5 out of 5 Replay Value: 3.5 out of 5 In the veins of Tales of Symphonia, Arc Rise Fantasia is one of the few RPGs that Nintendo will actually let get to the Wii instead of sending the watered down versions of the games to the DS. The gameplay is not amazing and the graphics are not strong even for Wii. That said, if you like a linear JRPG with a decent story, this is a good game for you. I'm not done this one completely but I know that there is a New Game+ option which is fun for replay value. Two Worlds 2 (PS3 / WRPG) - Single Player Not Kid friendly, Major Gore and violence, adult themes Graphics: 4.5 out of 5 Controls: 4 out of 5 Story: 3.5 out of 5 Replay value: Not completed This game is one I just started this weekend but I am hooked. It plays like a typical sandbox style WRPG with action elements in the fighting system. The game features many minigame-like trials for things like lockpicking and stealing so your actual timing and concentration affects your in-game skills. The story is about as non-linear as it gets, filled with a multitude of sidequests and bonuses. And like many WRPGs, your decisions in-game affect the future. Unfortunately, also like many WRPGs, the main goal is not clear and thus you find yourself not sure what to do frequently. I'm only 10 hours into this game but I'm really enjoying it. Lego: Batman (Wii / Platform-Fighting-Puzzle) - Kid Friendly Graphics: 2 out of 5 Controls: 4 out of 5 Story: 2 out of 5 Replay Value: 1 out of 5 Family Value: 4.5 out of 5 My twin boys are big into superheros like Spiderman, Batman, The Flash, Superman etc. so finding decent games that they can actually play are tough when most superhero games right now are too realistic and complicated for them to play. For a game that is aimed at kids, Lego Batman is surprisingly fun for me. I usually play as Robin while one of my boys plays as Batman. The "fighting" happens between Lego Batman or Lego Robin and the Lego Henchmen. No real violence here which is a big plus for family time. There is interesting dynamics with the Lego where you can build hovercraft and other next machines with spare Lego you find lying around. Big thumbs up from me for this game. Super Hero Squad (Wii / Beat 'em up) - Kid-friendly, cartoon violence Graphics: 3.5 out of 5 Controls: 3.5 out of 5 Story: 3 out of 5 Replay Value: 2 out of 5 Family Value: 3 out of 5 Point blank, this game isn't the greatest but I like the multiplayer because the kids can fight each other using Wolverine, Iron Man, Silver Surfer and The Hulk. The camera is clunky and the story mode consists of crushing an endless amount of goons for about 10 minutes before any real progress is made. Alundra (PS1 / Action RPG) - Single Player not kid friendly, cartoon sword violence, adult themes Graphics: 1.5 out of 5 Controls: 4 out of 5 Story: 5 out of 5 Replay value: 1 out of 5 Loved this game for the Playstation 1 but never did finish it so I grabbed it from the Playstation Store. Fair warning here. This game is more puzzle solving and jumping sequences than Action RPG. This game can be incredibly frustrating when a puzzle kicks your ass but can be incredibly rewarding when you finally do solve the puzzle. A good buy for $5. Other games I have but haven't played yet: Borderlands DLC: General Zod Disgaea 3 Front Mission 3 (Playstation 1) Xenogears (Playstation 1) Vagrant Story (Playstation 1) Fallout: New Vegas Dragon Age 2 (tomorrow; really looking forward to this one)
  22. Video Games; What are you playing lately?

    PS3 huddlers: Do not download the latest 4.45 firmware. It has been linked to bricking some consoles. PSA from your friendly neighbourhood Canadian
  23. Video Games; What are you playing lately?

    E3 rumor-mongering: With E3 happening over the next few days, there's been a lot of speculation over what games will be unveiled. Sadly, much of that hype has been overshadowed by the brewing next-gen console war. So without devolving the conversation into PS4 vs Xbox One, what games are you hoping for an announcement on? My list (in random order): Phantasy Star Online 2 (PC and PS Vita) (NA release date) Dragon Quest Online (Wii and Wii U) (NA release date) Persona 5 Final Fantasy 15 (hopefully single player) Dragon Age 3 An action game that utilizes the Wii U gamepad better than it is currently
  24. Video Games; What are you playing lately?

    Been a while since my last update here and with E3 pressers to drop shortly, I thought this might be a good time to get the video game hype train rolling again. For PS Vita: I downloaded Final Fantasy 7 (originally for the PS1) to my Vita a couple months. I was a huge fan of this game and I still am. This game holds up over the years with a strong storyline, character development and customization (the materia system). I got sucked in quickly again and played through once more. I forget how many notches I have on my belt for this game, 4 or 5 at least. In that same Final Fantasy vein, I downloaded Final Fantasy 8 (also originally for the PS1). Although I really enjoyed this game a lot when I was younger, I'm not getting into it now nearly as much as I did back then. I also bought Persona 4: Golden for the Vita. Although it starts off remarkably slow, it finishes very strong. It looks like a standard vanilla JRPG dungeon crawler but the dungeon crawler aspect is almost secondary to the life management and social game that exists outside of the dungeon. A great storyline coupled with excellent character development and near limitless replay value, Persona 4: Golden cannot be played the same way twice. Definitely worth a pickup. I dropped 100 hours into this easily. I am usually into games that Atlus produces and this one is no different. For PS3: I picked up Record of Agarest War Zero. Haven't played it yet but have heard some good things. Will let you guys know. Not much up on the PS3 front, still grinding out Ni No Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch. It is getting kind of dry to be honest with the grinding necessary to finish quests but I am still working through it. My console time is getting to be much more limited than my handheld time because of my boys' baseball practices but I'd rather coach than play so it works out. For Wii: I picked up Pandora's Tower as probably the last Wii-only title I'll buy. No gameplay yet but the premise of the game looks great and I am a sucker for Xseed games so this one will probably go good. More to follow. For Wii U: I picked up Lego City: Undercover for the Wii U. So far, I like it and so do my boys. I think the incorporation of the Wii U gamepad makes a lot more sense that other games where it feels more "forced" than natural. For example, the gamepad becomes your minimap when driving around. It also becomes your phone. It is a Lego game so you get the standard Lego "build your way out of a problem" strategy but it takes on a bit more of a Grand Theft Auto feel. I like it and would recommend if your kids like the Lego series at all. For 3DS: With the myriad of games coming out for the 3DS (and lack of JRPG support for the big consoles it would seem), I broke down and picked up a 3DS. With the majority of my gaming becoming handheld gaming, I wanted to make sure that I didn't miss out on some major titles. The two games I bought out of the chute were Fire Emblem: Awakening and Paper Mario: Sticker Star. I was a huge fan of the N64, GBA and Gamecube renditions of both of those games so I'm looking forward to getting into these ones. I'm only 8 hours into Fire Emblem so I can't really comment too much but if you've play Fire Emblem before, you'll love the game. If you haven't, it plays like Tactics Ogre or Ragnarok Tactics and is worth a shot if you liked either. The 3D of the system isn't bad, I can see it and it's not taxing on the eyes. You do need to keep the 3DS at a certain distance away from your face though or the screen gets distorted. Neither games I bought are twitch games but I'm looking forward to buying the Star Fox 64 remake. Confirmed games I'm looking forward to: Final Fantasy 14: Realm Reborn (Aug 27) Grand Theft Auto 5 (Sep 17) Castlevania: Lords of Shadow 2 (Winter 2013) Tales of Xillia (Aug 6) Elder Scrolls online (Late 2013) Batman: Arkham Origins (Oct 25) The Legend of Zelda: Link to the Past 2 (Late 2013) My backlog: Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch (PS3) Borderlands 2 (PS3) Castlevania: Symphony of the Night (PS Vita / PS1) Tactics Ogre: Let us cling together (PSP) Super Mario Wii U (Wii U) Final Fantasy Dimensions (Iphone) RAGE Fallout: New Vegas Xenoblade Chronicles Zelda: Skyward Sword Skyrim Front Mission Evolved Arc Rise Fantasia Sonic Generations