MTSuper7

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Everything posted by MTSuper7

  1. Delanie Walker taken off on cart....

    Per Ian Rapoport, Walker’s season looks over:
  2. Falcons / Eagles

    It's like Doug Peterson doesn't want the same RB on the field for more than 2 plays...
  3. Player who fell the furthest in your draft?

    Notes from a 12-team 1/2 point PPR league: Tyreek Hill fell to the 3-4 turn Alshon Jeffery fell to the 7th round Rex Burkhead fell to the mid 9th Delanie Walker fell to the 10th round Aaron Jones fell to the end of the 13th round Ronald Jones went in the 15th round
  4. My answer to this question: Alex Smith. I think he will finish as a QB1, with a ceiling around 5 or 6. He is currently the 18th QB coming off the boards according to fantasy football calculator mocks. Here's why I'm high on Alex Smith: No Guice means the same old meh running game. Jay Gruden got a QB6 finish out of Kirk Cousins in 2016 and a QB8 finish out of him last year. An argument could be made that Alex Smith is better than Kirk Cousins. Washington's defense isn't going to do the offense any favors He's one of my favorite backups to draft.
  5. first year in 23 years not playing FF

    I did this back in 2015. I was in a bunch of leagues, and it started feeling like an obligation instead of a hobby. Especially Tuesday nights getting waiver requests in. I took the year off and really enjoyed the freedom. It also worked out well, as I had just started a new job and would have never been able to keep up with my leagues if I hadn't stepped away. I got back into fantasy football in 2016, but only in my main local (who thankfully had an opening). I'm still only in that one league, and I don't plan to get into others. Enjoy the year off - I actually didn't even watch much football the year I took off. I actually think it takes fantasy football for me to have interest in the NFL these days which is sad. But the game is becoming hard and harder to watch with all of the replays and rules changes.
  6. LeVeon Bell

    Bell started slow after last year's holdout, so I'd at least temper expectations with Bell's productivity in September. But the Steelers know that Bell won't be with the team next year, so they are going to grind him into the ground this year. He will likely lead the league in touches, and removing pass-happy Todd Haley from the equation will likely help him. I can't see how anyone would draft Zeke or DJ over Bell. Zeke is going to get 8 in the box half the time this year, and he doesn't catch passes like Bell. And the Cardinals are terrible, so DJ isn't going to come even close to the 20 TDs he scored in 2016.
  7. Who is the best QB value in redrafts?

    Cousins finished QB8 last year without both of those guys (Garcon or DeSean). All I'm saying is the QB of a Jay Gruden offense is highly likely to finish the year as a QB1 based on his track record. This will be an interesting year to see how both Cousins and Smith do. I also think Blake Bortles deserves consideration as a value, mainly because he is going in the low to mid 20s of all QBs, but the guy never finishes below middle of the pack and always seems to deliver QB1 numbers during the fantasy playoffs somehow.
  8. Who is the best QB value in redrafts?

    I always laugh when I see things like Aaron Rodgers has a 5th round ADP. I've never seen the first quarterback in any of my leagues last even remotely that long. Rodgers will be long gone by the 5th in all of my leagues. Rodgers is also a higher injury risk than most other QBs.
  9. Who is the best QB value in redrafts?

    If Smith stayed in KC, he wouldn't have nearly as good a price tag. I'm curious about what is so bad in WAS. Cousins routinely made lemonade out of those lemons. They still have Doctson, Crowder, Thompson, Reed (health notwithstanding - is there a more brittle core of receiving talent in the league?). They added Paul Richardson (sorta meh, but better than Pryor). And they are going to have to rely on the pass without Guice. I don't believe in a 33 yo Adrian Peterson any more than I believed in Kelley or Perine. Jay Gruden made a top 10 QB out of Andy Dalton before heading to Washington. Dalton's best fantasy finish ever was Gruden's last year there (4300+ yds, 33TDs). Dalton has been QB2 material pretty much the rest of his fantasy career.
  10. Who is the best QB value in redrafts?

    I am not nearly as optimistic about Keenum, but you're right in that I could stack elsewhere and grab Keenum literally in the last round. I'd rather get two high upside QB2 types in the mid to late rounds though. So maybe pair Alex Smith with the likes of Eli (gotta like the supporting cast and arrival of Shurmur) or Trubisky (again, nice supporting cast and aggressive, young coaching change).
  11. Trey Burton

    I just hope he has a semi-quiet 3rd preseason game. I don't want his price tag soaring.
  12. A.J. McCarron breaks collarbone

    McCarron has looked JV his whole career. I never understood the hype when he was a Bengal, and still don't.
  13. Deeper Sleepers

    Here's a deep sleeper for you all... Mack Hollins. A few reasons... First, Alshon and Agholor are both banged up. If Alshon sits the first couple of games, Hollins could earn his way into a prominent role. Alshon is no stranger to injury, and his timeline coming off of torn rotator cuff surgery was always a little tight anyway. Hollins is a big dude too - bigger than Alshon (6'4"). He does have to contend with current #3 WR Mike Wallace, but Wallace is 32 and a known commodity. Hollins has more upside as an unknown.
  14. did you buy high on McKinnon this off-season?

    I really like Breida at his ADP, especially since he is hurt yet unlikely to miss regular season action. After Jimmy G. got to San Fran last year, the 49ers RBs averaged 27 carries per game (it was a few carries per game lower prior to Jimmy G because the offense ran fewer plays per game). A 60/40 split would mean something close to 16 carries for McKinnon, 11 for Breida. That would put McKinnon just over 250 carries for the year if he holds up. But the monster upside is with the combined PPR and TD opportunity, as McKinnon is certain to get most goalline work. If he gets 60 catches, goes over 1,200 total yards, and gets to double digit TDs, he is going to be an RB1. He can get to those numbers averaging a pedestrian 3.8 ypc too. And we're talking with a 60% share, not a bellcow workload. Despite McKinnon losing work to Latavius Murray last year, there's a certain amount of trust and respect that you have to give Kyle Shanahan here. They've watched tape. They know who McKinnon is. They weren't turned off by what they saw on tape, and they know that they are expecting of him in this offense. I don't think it's bellcow work at all. But I also don't think it needs to be for McKinnon to produce borderline RB1 numbers.
  15. How many carries will Christian McCaffrey get?

    Since when is 5-11, 205 pounds considered small for an NFL running back? I don't understand that criticism of McCaffrey. I'll agree that he's maybe not prototypical of a bellcow, but people are acting like he's Warrick Dunn. Here is a list of RBs similar-ish in size to McCaffrey: LeSean McCoy (5'11", 210) Kareem Hunt (5'11", 215) Devonta Freeman (5'8", 206) Alex Collins (5'10", 208) Aaron Jones (5'9", 208) Jerick McKinnon (5'9", 205) Some of the above might not be bellcow material, but we've seen McCoy and Freeman fare just fine in the NFL. And Alex Collins was a workhorse the last half of 2017. I guess my point is that we shouldn't assume McCaffrey can't handle the workload based on his size. He seemed to do well with a bellcow role at Stanford (averaged 23.6 carries at over 6 yards per in his last two seasons there). That doesn't mean NFL success is guaranteed, but I would be surprised if we didn't see his total touches climb near or slightly above 20 per game. I chose 200-250 carries, but I think it'll be the high end of that number (15 carries/game = 240 over the season). I think 280+ touches is a near lock. ETA: I forgot to add Dalvin Cook to the above list (5'10", 210). I've not heard anyone express concern with his bellcow-ability.
  16. Should Antonio Brown be numero uno?

    The "he is the least likely WR in the league to get injured" argument just sounds like you are digging for reasons to support your position. The guy got hurt early in week 15 last year, missing the rest of the regular season (and essentially torpedoing the playoff hopes of fantasy teams who had him). Nobody knows when injuries will strike. It's that simple. I don't even think you have to bring up injury/health to defend yourself here. As you said, he is a lock for 100 catches. And if he meets his averages over the last five years, he'll eclipse 1400 yards and 10 TDs. He's the safest pick out there, and in a PPR league, he very rarely has a down week to hurt you. Again, this question is more about personal preference. The biggest argument against drafting Brown with the #1 overall pick is the opportunity cost. If you take Antonio Brown with the #1 overall pick, you have to be comfortable with the impact that has on your RB situation. If you like a lot of the mid round RB options, then draft WR early and take who falls in those mid rounds at RB. Actually, based on mock trends, this strategy might be pretty smart. It seems like people are in love with the RB once again, meaning there will be a lot of WR value likely to be there at the 2-3 turn. Starting your draft with 3 Top 10 WRs, then taking some lottery tickets at RB in the back half of your draft could work out well. Especially in PPR formats.
  17. Should Antonio Brown be numero uno?

    First, I don't subscribe to any "lowest chance of injury" arguments. This is a violent game, and any player could find himself on the shelf at any time. And though I don't think there is a safer WR either, it's not like Brown's situation remains completely unchanged. It'll be interesting to see how the departure of Todd Haley affects the play calling. There's a very small change that a new play caller will affect Brown much, but to ignore it completely is a mistake. Regarding taking Brown over the stud RBs, I don't think there is a right answer to this question. Instead, ask yourself how your decision shapes the rest of your draft. If you take Antonio Brown #1 overall, then, using these ADP stats, your RB1 would then be among the likes of: Joe Mixon Christian McCaffrey Derrick Henry Or maybe one of these guys is there (because ADP data at this point isn't going to be indicative of how things look in mid-to-late August): LeSean McCoy Jordan Howard Jerick McKinnon Flip that against drafting Le'Veon or Gurley with that first pick. You then end up with a WR1 among the likes of: Mike Evans Doug Baldwin Josh Gordon Tyreek Hill I don't see A.J. Green or Keenan Allen falling the the 2-3 turn, but maybe that could happen in some leagues. You can't count on it though. Let's talk best case for your Antonio Brown scenario... Would you rather have Antonio Brown and LeSean McCoy or Bell or Gurley and one of Mike Evans or Doug Baldwin? I am more in the Bell/Gurley and Evans/Baldwin camp, as RB feels like it falls off a cliff after the first 10 or 11 guys (around the Dalvin Cook / Devonta Freeman line somewhere). In general, I usually subscribe to the idea that, if I am taking RB with my first pick, I tend to go WR-WR with my next two unless some excellent RB value is there. So it becomes more like this: Would you rather Antonio Brown, Jordan Howard, Doug Baldwin -or- Le'Veon Bell, Mike Evans, Doug Baldwin. I am way more comfortable calling Evans/Baldwin my co-WR1s with a stud RB than having Jordan Howard as a RB1 (or any of the other RBs with possible exception of McCoy even though I'm not loving it). But if you like Antonio Brown enough and can accept how that impacts your RB situation, then go for it.
  18. FTSA Experts Draft

    Mariota has real upside this year. He didn't seem fully healthy last year (early on for sure), and he gets a new coach and scheme (Mularkey's offense was too vanilla) along with another year of maturity for the young duo of Davis and Taylor at WR. And Dion Lewis. I wouldn't be surprised if he finished as a lower end QB1, though I think his ceiling is maybe 8th overall. His running/scrambling is going to make a difference. He is currently falling around the #17 QB taken in PPR 12-team mocks.
  19. FTSA Experts Draft

    I don't think people know what TEN plans to do exactly with the Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry split. It is interesting that Lewis seems to be going a couple of rounds later than Henry pretty consistently. For that reason, I love Lewis' value a lot more. As for the rest of the Huddle team, it's pretty solid. I really like pairing ASJ and Clay at TE. I think they probably would have been better off passing on Jordy Nelson and drafting their QB of choice instead (Brady, Wentz, etc.). Love Cameron Meredith in the 10th. He could have standalone value but is kind of a Michael Thomas handcuff. The Mike Williams pick seems optimistic to me, but maybe he does emerge. Overall, nice job!
  20. Seferian-Jenkins signs with the Jaguars

    I really like ASJ as a TE2 this year with top 8 potential. For the current price, I am buying all day.
  21. Yeah, he isn't likely to be an early season contributor. But the Broncos did decline his fifth-year option, so he should be plenty motivated to improve his stock headed into free agency next year.
  22. It depends on whether or not the defense can carry the team and whether or not a healthy Jared Veldheer can thrive in Denver's scheme. Hopefully he stays healthy. It'd really be nice to see something out of Shane Ray this year, but I'm not holding my breath.
  23. Deeper Sleepers

    Hard to ignore Sefarian-Jenkins as a sleeper TE based on his current ADP. I am guessing some hype will bump him up above 150, but if he stays a 14th round pick, I'm all over it.
  24. Think he will regress 20-30%? I think regressing is likely, particularly completion percentage. Hard to quantify it, so maybe 20-30% is the wrong way to look at it. Hard to know for sure. Last year was certainly a statistical anomaly compared to the rest of Keenum's career. Statistical regression to the mean is almost certain, though there are a lot of factors at play (scheme, talent, coaching, etc.) that contribute.
  25. Feeling overall decent vibes from the Broncos right now. Keenum is an upgrade at QB, even if he regresses 20-30% from his Minnesota numbers. It isn't hard to improve upon last year's debacle at QB. If Bradley Chubb steps right in as an impact player opposite Von Miller, I like the defense to bounce back into Top 5 territory again. Also wanted to share some general vibes that I have about other teams based on things I have read or heard: Raiders - Not so good. I think the first year under Gruden is going to be rough. The Martavis Bryant trade has the potential to blow up in their faces already. Something just doesn't feel right with this team. Maybe it's the ridiculous contract Gruden got, which begs the question "would he take this job even if he didn't truly want it just because it's a TON of dough?" Cowboys - Not so good. Outside of Zeke, where are the playmakers on offense? Cardinals - Decent. The Cardinals have a ton of unknowns. New coach, new OC, new QB, new WRs behind Larry... But there are playmakers here, and the QB situation is going to likely be better (when Bradford stays healthy, he is pretty good). Lions - Decent. Still major questions on defensive line though (maybe Hyder and Zettel step up - they need help behind Ansah). But the offense remains consistent. They did lose Ebron (good riddance IMO), and didn't really replace him with an impact player. But Golladay could emerge in year 2 as more than a red-zone and/or situational guy. But the decent vibes come from their work to really reinforce the offensive line (which looks mighty fine on paper) and to get a potential workhorse RB in Kerryon Johnson. If they can establish a legit run game, watch out. Titans - Good. This team really needed a coaching overhaul, and the guys they brought in are young with something to prove. There is risk though in LaFleur as OC, but the previous regime seemed to channel the ghost of Jeff Fisher to do as little as possible with a decent amount of talent. I think Dion Lewis will prove to be a steal this year, and Mariota will bring great ROI to fantasy footballers who invest. Walker is still there as the sure thing, and Corey Davis still has room to make a leap. I expect them to be fun to watch. Giants - Meh. Another coaching overhaul, but this one is more head scratching. Pat Shurmur is an uninspired hire, and David Shula never impressed me with his offenses in Carolina at all. He inherits Eli Manning in his golden years, but there are nice weapons around Manning. I just don't believe in this coaching staff or in Eli at his age, so I'm unlikely to invest much in this offense.