Big Country

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Big Country last won the day on August 16 2018

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About Big Country

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  1. What are we doing with Gurley?

    I didn't want to put to many details into my post as it is a Huddle league that hadn't yet drafted, but now that we have started and are through most of the second round, I'll go through my logic. 12 team league - only 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex. Graduated PPR so RB get 0.5 PPR, WRs get 0.75 PPR and TEs get 1.0 PPR. I had the 8th pick. When the draft started, my plan, assuming picks ahead of me were normal, was to take either Adams (whom I have really high this year) or Kelce for the TE bonus (I've had good success in this league in the past by getting a top TE early and finding value at other positions later vs. waiting on TE) in the first and then possibly Gurley in the 2nd. First 7 picks were fairly standard, only "surprise" was Conner jumping into the top 6, which made me thing there was a chance at David Johnson who went at 7. I took Adams at the 8 pick (Kelce went at 9 to an owner that has won the league several times). When the second round came around, it looked like JuJu was going to drop to me, but he went one pick in front of me (to the Kelce drafter). I then had to decide between RB (Gurley and Mixon top candidates), pairing my WRs (Mike Evans top choice) or getting Ertz/Kittle. After looking at my projections and ADP (and knowing the draft tendencies of this league) I ended up ruling out the risk of the RB pick as there are several later ones I like and I only need to start 1. I had decided on Evans, had him queued up but then decided that WR is so deep this year that I would prefer to lock up a safer consistent TE, especially with the bonus PPR scoring. I opted for Ertz. Didn't mean to hijack the thread, just wanted to pu the thought process for my league in there, all that to say, if the league was a more "standard" setup in that there were 2 required RBs and PPR was not graduated, than I would have taken Gurley there no doubt. I think the mid-second round grade for him is taking the risk into account. Even if he is only 75% of what he was, that still puts him into the RB7-12 range, which is where he is being drafted, but he has the legit RB 2-4 upside which I don't believe can be said about any of the other backs in that range.
  2. Dynasty trade where I get Zeke and gordon

    With that info, I say make the deal. You'll be beyond stacked at RB so can deal from a position of strength there if needed to improve your QB/WR if needed, and even if Elliott and Gordon don't play, you are still stronger than average at RB.
  3. Dynasty trade where I get Zeke and gordon

    With your scoring system and this being a superflex, does it usually make more sense to try start a decent QB at flex over an RB? Assuming they play (an obvious risk) then you have Johnson and Elliott as your main RBs with Gordon as a flex - would you be likely to start Gordon at flex over a QB? Just trying to gauge if putting your resources towards acquiring a better QB in this format would be better. It may make sense to make this deal with the intent to try and flip some RB depth for a QB improvement, but that really depends on the league scoring parameters and how that affects the flex play.
  4. What are we doing with Gurley?

    In one of my leagues where we only have 1 required RB, I will consider him in the 2nd round assuming I don't go RB in the 1st. If I do go RB in the 1st, it would be a harder decision to take him based the lineup reqs and scoring system, but he could be one heck of a flex
  5. MB League #2 10 teams

    Going to be interesting picking at the turn - always slightly different strategy for best ball, still not looking forward to the long gaps between picks
  6. Considering I'd rather have Moore than Fuller. I'd take the deal as Guice is a high upside bonus
  7. Should I keep Kittle?

    No way you keep Kittle here
  8. Keeper question.. McAffrey vs Lindsay

    That's tough - is McCaffrey worth a 40% increase in your buy in to try get 5 times your buy in back. Is McCaffrey plus what is likely your kicker (16th round pick) plus spending an extra $20 cash worth more than Lindsay and who you'd be able to draft at #12? I'd find it difficult to believe that the McCaffrey side is stronger, much less at the cost of an additional 40% of my buy in.
  9. Where is Matt Ryan going in 10-team leagues?

    His ADP is around pick 69 as the 6th QB off the board, which in a 10 team league is late 7th round. Depends on your leagues draft tendencies, so it's possible you could get him in the 9th. Better gauge would be to see where the top 3-4 QBs go in your draft and know that you'll likely have to take him in the next round or so after the 4th one goes if you really want him.
  10. Keeper question.. McAffrey vs Lindsay

    How much is the league buy-in/payouts? Knowing what percentage of the possibly payout the $20 represents would have an affect on the decision making process.
  11. QB TDs Worth 6 pts

    Your examples though are looking at the entirety of your scoring system. The question is what effect does moving from 4pt to 6 pt TDs have. The answer to that is that the affect is fairly minimal for that one change. Adding in that your league has 16 teams, does a half point per completion and does 1 pt per 20 yards are all additional factors that affect the value of the position. Last year QB1 had 50TDs and QB12 had 26 TDs, at a 2 pt. per TD difference that is a 48 point difference across all of the top 12 QBs. When you consider that QB2 had 39 TDs, it's only a 26 point difference across the entire season for the position. 2017 - QB1 had 34 TDs, QB12 had 22, a difference of 24 points over the course of the season across the entire starting position for a 12 team league. 2016 - The range is 40 TDs to 26 TDs, a difference of 28 points across the position. 2015 - The range is 36 down to 29 TDs, a difference of 14 points over the course of the season. 2014 - Range is 40 TDs to 27 TDs, a difference of 26 points over the season 2013 - Range is 55 (Manning) to 24, a difference of 42 points (QB 2 had 39 TDs, which would make the range 30 points) The reason I showed all the way back to 2013 is to show that in most years, the range of TD passes is so tightly bunched, that a change from 4 to 6 points has minimal overall impact on QB value. It takes a major outlier, ie record breaking year, coupled with no other QB being close in TD throws, to make an impact on value.
  12. QB TDs Worth 6 pts

    72-48=24 which is the difference in the two scenarios. You have not added 72 points to the difference in the scoring range within the position, you have added 24 points to it.
  13. No - your scoring system is set up that you are essentially playing fantasy QB. Keep Mahomes.
  14. Message Board Leagues

    I'm back and down for how ever many rounds we want to take it - even if we want to expand lineups to include a second flex as well
  15. QB TDs Worth 6 pts

    Do you only start 1 RB then? The required RB starters is greater in most leagues, so the comparison needs to be expanded. If using the worst starter method for evaluating value, and using a standard 12 team league with line up reqs of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR and 1 TE you'd be using the #12 QB, #24 RB, #24 WR and #12 TE as your baseline for calculating value at each position. You also have to factor in the massive outlier that Mahomes season this last year was. I generally prefer to take at least 3 years worth of scoring into account. What the post above shows is actually how much steeper the drop likely was at RB compared to QB - QB 2-9, which is the bulk of the range of QB starters, had a 5 PPG difference. RB2 to 9 (again, adjusting for the outlier of Gurley's performance since we don't have multiple years worth of data to smooth this), which is just the RB1s also had a 5 PPG difference. What's likely to be steeper if we extend this to the full range of required starters - the drop from QB9 to 12 or the drop from RB9 to 24. The reason QBs are likely so valuable to the league Shaft is in is more to do with league size as Def. pointed out, and I'd venture a guess there is more in the scoring than just a shift from 4 to 6 point passing TDs to account for the massive amount of points the QBs score compared to other positions (50% more than the top RBs) With Mahomes, in order for him to justify his ADP, he will need to essentially repeat last years performance and not have anyone else close the gap on him. He was so valuable last year because he was being taken in the 14th or later.