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Everything posted by shakyjake316

  1. The riskiest player to draft from each team based on their current ADP, injury histories, place on the depth chart, how many other offensive weapons are on the team, etc. Arizona Cardinals - John Brown Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan Baltimore Ravens - Jeremy Maclin Buffalo Bills - Sammy Watkins Carolina Panthers - Cam Newton Chicago Bears - Jordan Howard Cincinnati Bengals - Joe Mixon Cleveland Browns - Corey Coleman Dallas Cowboys - Ezekiel Elliott Denver Broncos - C.J. Anderson Detroit Lions - Ameer Abdullah Green Bay Packers - Martellus Bennett Houston Texans - Lamar Miller Indianapolis Colts - Frank Gore Jacksonville Jaguars - Allen Robinson Kansas City Chiefs - Tyreek Hill Los Angeles Chargers - Keenan Allen Los Angeles Rams - Todd Gurley Miami Dolphins - Jay Ajayi Minnesota Vikings - Dalvin Cook New England Patriots - Brandin Cooks New Orleans Saints - Mark Ingram New York Giants - Odell Beckham Jr. New York Jets - Bilal Powell Oakland Raiders - Marshawn Lynch Philadelphia Eagles - Alshon Jeffery Pittsburgh Steelers - Ben Roethlisberger San Francisco 49ers - Carlos Hyde Seattle Seahawks - Eddie Lacy Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DeSean Jackson Tennessee Titans - Demarco Murray Washington Redskins - Jordan Reed
  2. Projecting the Riskiest Fantasy Player For Each NFL Team

    I'm glad some handfuls of my analysis have held up so far.
  3. Projecting the Riskiest Fantasy Player For Each NFL Team

    Brandon Marshall isn't exactly known for having a "small" personality or quiet disposition, either. If your argument is that Eli will throw most to the squeaky wheel, then Marshall would probably absorb a fair amount of targets himself based on his locker room behavior. (Still, I think you're underestimating what it means to be a professional quarterback, and I don't see Eli kowtowing that much to his "diva" receivers.) That's assuming Brady doesn't decline at all at age 40. (Remember Peyton's steep drop-off? It can happen.) Also, I don't for the life of me see the current iteration of the Brady/Belichick offense going through one receiver, unless that man's name is Rob Gronkowski. He and Edelman will still play huge roles in this offense, along with all the receiving backs. I agree that Cooks' ceiling is astronomical, but the floor you mentioned is definitely not his "worst case scenario." The fact that his ADP has dropped since the time of that article (from QB9 to QB12) says it all. People are unwilling to take him as a Top 10 QB because, again, he finished outside the Top 10 for the 5th time in the last seven seasons. Largely due to injuries. Bryant should help him if he can stay on the field, but it's hard to imagine that being the case.
  4. Projecting the Riskiest Fantasy Player For Each NFL Team

    In the original linked article (which the moderator must have removed) I mention how Arizona is one of the few teams w/out a genuinely risky player. But his health concerns could make him a flop again, which means you'd be better served going after someone like Kenny Britt or Tyrell Williams at a similar ADP.
  5. Projecting the Riskiest Fantasy Player For Each NFL Team

    Couldn't agree more to this point. Too many people draft based entirely on upside in the early rounds. That's a fine tactic for the mid-rounds, but it can burn you in a big way if you start doing that too early. As for Bennett, we'll have to agree to disagree on this one. I'm still a tad worried about the team's O-line, and I think too much of Bennett's production will hinge on getting into the end zone. Plus, I think he'll end up absorbing a lot of double teams, especially early in the season. But in any case, I probably wouldn't take him until about TE12 just to be cautious.
  6. Projecting the Riskiest Fantasy Player For Each NFL Team

    I'll admit the stat I chose -- games where Gronk was "fully" healthy -- was a bit misleading. (Though your Week 4 example was the most obvious case of Gronk being used as a decoy, which accounted for Bennett's massive yardage that game.) Still, Bennett's only finished as a Top 8 fantasy tight end twice in his career, and his ranking last year was definitely bolstered by Gronk's extended absence. I'm not willing to cede Bennett as a Top 8 TE this year in Green Bay's system; not with an underrated route runner like Lance Kendricks also in the fold. (For all we know, he could be the Jared Cook of this season.) Green Bay's O-line lost two pretty significant pieces this offseason, so it's still possible Mike McCarthy uses Bennett as a pass blocker on a decent number of snaps, especially given the number of multiple TE sets they could use. And I don't argue that Rodgers loves having a good tight end; he was effusive with praise for Cook. But Jordy Nelson isn't going anywhere. Neither is Davante Adams. Both finished last season as Top 7 WRs in fantasy, whereas Julian Edelman, the Pats' top WR, finished 25th. Green Bay might not have quite as many mouths to feed as New England, but the mouths they have are always feasting. Don't get me wrong, Bennett could have a huge season on the stat sheet -- in which case you should definitely re-quote your argument to me at that time, IN ALL CAPS -- but there's enough reasons to doubt him finishing as a Top 10 TE that it makes him a risky pick.