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Why I Might Start Parker Over Edge


DexterDew
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I'm doing this more to convince myself, and to think outside the box by not just start your horses.

 

I looked up the numbers for BALT at home vs the run, and here are the highlights:

 

6-2 Record.

1 RB, Priest, over 100 yard (33 carries-125yards-2 TDs, long 16 yards... they pounded the rock behind that massive OL). Here are the 7 other leading rushers:

 

Stayley 16-57-0

MaGahee 16-58-0

Suggs 18-56-0

J Jones 30-81-0 (parcells is that stubborn)

R Johnson 19-56-0

T Barber 19-55-1

S Morris 12-89-1 (!?!)

 

The normal pattern is that it takes less than 20 attempts in BALT before the OFF decides to try something else. There are four good backs in there (MaGahee, J Jones, R Johnson, T Barber), and I think that Stayley and Suggs are servicable.

 

For good measure. BALT in IND last year, the Colts won and Edge had 22-69-1 with a long of 16. I expect that is the type of line that we see this week. Edge is usually very reliable to get you 20+ points in our league, I just don't think it will be much more unless the IND OL is a pounding line that will wear BALT out, and I don't think they are. I also think the BALT team speed on DEF is so quick that they don't give up the long run.

 

When I looked up the #'s for TEN Rush DEF on the Road, there was also a pattern:

 

3-5 Record

 

MIA Gordon 32 yards

SCRUBB 25

SD Tomlinson 147-1

Chatman 23-1

GB Green 10-33 yards

Min Moore 20-138-0

Williams 3-10-1

Jax Taylor 21-103-0

Garrard 4-34-1

Hou D Davis 16-129-1

Ind Edge 18-105-2

Rhodes 4-52

Oak Crocket 8-27

Farges 7-17

 

What I see here is that if you take our OAK and MIA, who had no running backs to speak of, and the GB game because that was the MON night game when GB fell behind big early and tried to play catch up, TEN Rush DEF gives up ASS. Usually, no more than 20 touches (didn't check the receptions, my bad) and they give up 100+ yards easily. I would have some concerns about Bettis taking a goal line carry, but if he is not healthy, I think Parker can score from anywhere on the field. And I have not heard of a resurgence in the TEN DEF, only Norm Chow and the Offense that isn't clicking yet. Pitt last year was once of the best teams in running the ball, and I don't see them changing their philosophy this year.

 

All I am trying to do is to put my starting lineup in the best favorable chance to perform, and hopefully win. If I were to just blindly "start my studs", ignoring favorable match ups like the one above, then I would just use my bench for bye-weeks, and would never use the WW unless someone was hurt. And where is the fun in that?

 

And the reason why I would only consider this in week one is because who knows when Bettis and Stayley will be back, and I don't think Edge will have any more games against a top RUN DEF on the road, except for in NE, and Cadillac might be established by then.

 

And the papers on Monday will talk about how an undrafted player led the Steelers to victory Sunday. It's just the kind of story we need right now :D

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And the reason why I would only consider this in week one is because who knows when Bettis and Stayley will be back, and I don't think Edge will have any more games against a top RUN DEF on the road, except for in NE, and Cadillac might be established by then.

 

And the papers on Monday will talk about how an undrafted player led the Steelers to victory Sunday.  It's just the kind of story we need right now :D

 

971438[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Very well thought out, and well reasoned. Now, I'm only going to say this once:

 

ALWAYS. START. YOUR. STUDS.

 

Especially when you start seriously considering starting Wille Parker over Edgerrin James. That way lies madness,man. Do you really want to be the guy who lost his week one game because He started a last-minute unproven waiver wire fad pickup over his (probably) number one pick?

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I'm doing this more to convince myself, and  to think outside the box by not just start your horses.

 

I looked up the numbers for BALT at home vs the run, and here are the highlights:

 

6-2 Record.

1 RB, Priest, over 100 yard (33 carries-125yards-2 TDs, long 16 yards... they pounded the rock behind that massive OL).  Here are the 7 other leading rushers:

 

Stayley 16-57-0

MaGahee 16-58-0

Suggs 18-56-0

J Jones 30-81-0 (parcells is that stubborn)

R Johnson 19-56-0

T Barber 19-55-1

S Morris 12-89-1 (!?!)

 

The normal pattern is that it takes less than 20 attempts in BALT before the OFF decides to try something else.  There are four good backs in there (MaGahee, J Jones, R Johnson, T Barber), and I think that Stayley and Suggs are servicable.

 

For good measure. BALT in IND last year, the Colts won and Edge had 22-69-1 with a long of 16.  I expect that is the type of line that we see this week.  Edge is usually very reliable to get you 20+ points in our league, I just don't think it will be much more unless the IND OL is a pounding line that will wear BALT out, and I don't think they are.  I also think the BALT team speed on DEF is so quick that they don't give up the long run.

 

When I looked up the #'s for TEN Rush DEF on the Road, there was also a pattern:

 

3-5 Record

 

MIA Gordon 32 yards

      SCRUBB 25

SD Tomlinson 147-1

      Chatman  23-1

GB  Green 10-33 yards

Min Moore 20-138-0

      Williams 3-10-1

Jax Taylor 21-103-0

      Garrard 4-34-1

Hou D Davis 16-129-1

Ind Edge 18-105-2

    Rhodes 4-52

Oak Crocket 8-27

    Farges 7-17

 

What I see here is that if you take our OAK and MIA, who had no running backs to speak of, and the GB game because that was the MON night game when GB fell behind big early and tried to play catch up,  TEN Rush DEF gives up ASS.  Usually, no more than 20 touches (didn't check the receptions, my bad) and they give up 100+ yards easily.  I would have some concerns about Bettis taking a goal line carry, but if he is not healthy, I think Parker can score from anywhere on the field.  And I have not heard of a resurgence in the TEN DEF, only Norm Chow and the Offense that isn't clicking yet.  Pitt last year was once of the best teams in running the ball, and I don't see them changing their philosophy this year.

 

All I am trying to do is to put my starting lineup in the best favorable chance to perform, and hopefully win.  If I were to just blindly "start my studs", ignoring favorable match ups like the one above, then I would just use my bench for bye-weeks, and would never use the WW unless someone was hurt.  And where is the fun in that?

 

And the reason why I would only consider this in week one is because who knows when Bettis and Stayley will be back, and I don't think Edge will have any more games against a top RUN DEF on the road, except for in NE, and Cadillac might be established by then.

 

And the papers on Monday will talk about how an undrafted player led the Steelers to victory Sunday.  It's just the kind of story we need right now :D

971438[/snapback]

 

Apologize to everyone for posting such an insane overanalysis. :D

 

And where is the Referee to flag this guy for breaking Fantasy Football Rule #1?

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12/19/05 Baltimore at Indianapolis

 

James: 22 carries 69 yards 1 TD/ 1 reception 23 yards

 

 

10/13/02 Baltimore at Indianapolis (Edge's fifth game back after knee surgery)

 

17 carries 43 yards / 4 receptions 8 yards

 

These are the only two games Edge has ever had against Baltimore. The Colts played in Baltimore in 2001, but Edge was injured. In that game, Dominic Rhodes had 16 carries for 42 yards and 6 receptions for 25 yards.

 

Interestingly, the Colts struggle the most against 3-4 defenses. The Ravens are not running a 3-4 this year, but are instead running the 46 defense.

 

I think you are over-analyzing. Don't bench your studs. What happens if Pittsburgh decides to go RBBC and Haynes gets some carries too? No such worries with Edge, Rhodes has turf toe and is iffy for the game.

Edited by CaptainHook
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I am as hopeful as they come that Parker goes wild but the risk/reward is not worth making this move, IMO.

 

I could very easily see Parker haveing a better day. In fact I could see him having a much better day. However, I can also see lots of things potentially interfering with Parkers day that Edge won't have to worry about.

 

Play it safe, IMO, and start Edge. If you have room to start Parker with him then try that but even this Steeler homer can see that this is not the best move to make at this point.

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All I am trying to do is to put my starting lineup in the best favorable chance to perform, and hopefully win.  If I were to just blindly "start my studs", ignoring favorable match ups like the one above, then I would just use my bench for bye-weeks, and would never use the WW unless someone was hurt.  And where is the fun in that?

 

971438[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Just hearing a suggestion to sit James and start Parker as a replacement makes me... makes me.... ummm.... want to SING!

 

Oompa, Loompa, doom-pa-dee-do

I have another puzzle for you

Oompa, Loompa, doom-pa-da-dee

If you are wise, you'll listen to me

 

Who do you blame when your kid is a brat?

Pampered and spoiled like a Siamese cat

Blaming the kids is a lie and a shame

You know exactly who's to blame

 

The mother and the father

 

Oompa, Loompa, doom-pa-dee-da

If you're not spoiled, then you will go far

You will live in happiness too

Like the Oompa Loompa doom-pa-dee-do

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I'm doing this more to convince myself, and  to think outside the box by not just start your horses.

 

I looked up the numbers for BALT at home vs the run, and here are the highlights:

 

6-2 Record.

1 RB, Priest, over 100 yard (33 carries-125yards-2 TDs, long 16 yards... they pounded the rock behind that massive OL).  Here are the 7 other leading rushers:

 

Stayley 16-57-0

MaGahee 16-58-0

Suggs 18-56-0

J Jones 30-81-0 (parcells is that stubborn)

R Johnson 19-56-0

T Barber 19-55-1

S Morris 12-89-1 (!?!)

 

The normal pattern is that it takes less than 20 attempts in BALT before the OFF decides to try something else.  There are four good backs in there (MaGahee, J Jones, R Johnson, T Barber), and I think that Stayley and Suggs are servicable.

 

For good measure. BALT in IND last year, the Colts won and Edge had 22-69-1 with a long of 16.  I expect that is the type of line that we see this week.  Edge is usually very reliable to get you 20+ points in our league, I just don't think it will be much more unless the IND OL is a pounding line that will wear BALT out, and I don't think they are.  I also think the BALT team speed on DEF is so quick that they don't give up the long run.

 

When I looked up the #'s for TEN Rush DEF on the Road, there was also a pattern:

 

3-5 Record

 

MIA Gordon 32 yards

      SCRUBB 25

SD Tomlinson 147-1

      Chatman  23-1

GB  Green 10-33 yards

Min Moore 20-138-0

      Williams 3-10-1

Jax Taylor 21-103-0

      Garrard 4-34-1

Hou D Davis 16-129-1

Ind Edge 18-105-2

    Rhodes 4-52

Oak Crocket 8-27

    Farges 7-17

 

What I see here is that if you take our OAK and MIA, who had no running backs to speak of, and the GB game because that was the MON night game when GB fell behind big early and tried to play catch up,  TEN Rush DEF gives up ASS.  Usually, no more than 20 touches (didn't check the receptions, my bad) and they give up 100+ yards easily.  I would have some concerns about Bettis taking a goal line carry, but if he is not healthy, I think Parker can score from anywhere on the field.  And I have not heard of a resurgence in the TEN DEF, only Norm Chow and the Offense that isn't clicking yet.  Pitt last year was once of the best teams in running the ball, and I don't see them changing their philosophy this year.

 

All I am trying to do is to put my starting lineup in the best favorable chance to perform, and hopefully win.  If I were to just blindly "start my studs", ignoring favorable match ups like the one above, then I would just use my bench for bye-weeks, and would never use the WW unless someone was hurt.  And where is the fun in that?

 

And the reason why I would only consider this in week one is because who knows when Bettis and Stayley will be back, and I don't think Edge will have any more games against a top RUN DEF on the road, except for in NE, and Cadillac might be established by then.

 

And the papers on Monday will talk about how an undrafted player led the Steelers to victory Sunday.  It's just the kind of story we need right now :D

 

971438[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

 

tough to sit edge..........but i do agree that willie will have a good day.

perhaps sit sjax instead of edge.

 

good luck

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Just hearing a suggestion to sit James and start Parker as a replacement makes me... makes me.... ummm.... want to SING!

 

Oompa, Loompa, doom-pa-dee-do

I have another puzzle for you

Oompa, Loompa, doom-pa-da-dee

If you are wise, you'll listen to me

 

Who do you blame when your kid is a brat?

Pampered and spoiled like a Siamese cat

Blaming the kids is a lie and a shame

You know exactly who's to blame

 

The mother and the father

 

Oompa, Loompa, doom-pa-dee-da

If you're not spoiled, then you will go far

You will live in happiness too

Like the Oompa Loompa doom-pa-dee-do

 

971984[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Wow!

 

It's tough to get an "Oompa Loompa" reference into a fantasy football conversation. God knows I've been trying for a while, but I haven't been able to find the right spot.

 

I think this one was a little forced - not sure I would have tried to cram it in right here - but I sure do admire the effort.

:D

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With Bettis out, I am still considering it.

 

For those who read the entirety of my post, I hope you can see that my conclussion to this "internal" argument follows the premises/data that I researched. I have a hard time with the rebuttle argument "always start your studs" because that's sounds more like a slogan, not a reason. I'm asking a FF "why", or "why not", and mostly I'm getting "because that's the way it always is".

 

If someone could give me a scenario of how Edge was going to get his 100+ yards and a TD in BALT, I would be interested in hearing it.

 

Perhaps "It's a contract year, and Edge will be motivated." Amen to that. Money is a powerful motivator, but it doesn't change his past showings vs BALT, or BALT's DEF success at home vs RBs. The one exception was Priest and that mammoth line pounding it all game. IND doesn't strike me as that type of team.

 

Maybe Boller is going to have an awful (for him) game and throw three picks, thus shortening the field for Peyton, and IND with a lead, will just run out the clock. But I don't think BALT will let Boller throw more than 18 times this week, unless they are playing some serious catch up. So maybe Lewis will have a case of the drops, but that is just as likely as Edge doing the same.

 

I just happen to think this is the worst possible match-up that Edge can face this year, so why would I rely upon him when there is another player on my roster with a better chance to put up numbers? "Because that's the way it always is, you start your studs". Free Will enables me to ask "why?".

 

I bet there are few people on this BB who can tell me a scenario of how Parker will get 100+ yards and a TD. I just think it is a h*ll of a lot more likely that Parker will do it, and Edge won't.

 

The battle between my ears continues... :D

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With Bettis out, I am still considering it.

 

For those who read the entirety of my post, I hope you can see that my conclussion to this "internal" argument follows the premises/data that I researched.  I have a hard time with the rebuttle argument "always start your studs" because that's sounds more like a slogan, not a reason.  I'm asking a FF "why", or "why not",  and mostly I'm getting "because that's the way it always is".

 

If someone could give me a scenario of how Edge was going to get his 100+ yards and a TD in BALT, I would be interested in hearing it.

 

Perhaps "It's a contract year, and Edge will be motivated."  Amen to that.  Money is a powerful motivator, but it doesn't change his past showings vs BALT, or BALT's DEF success at home vs RBs.  The one exception was Priest and that mammoth line pounding it all game.  IND doesn't strike me as that type of team.

 

Maybe Boller is going to have an awful (for him) game and throw three picks, thus shortening the field for Peyton, and IND with a lead, will just run out the clock.  But I don't think BALT will let Boller throw more than 18 times this week, unless they are playing some serious catch up. So maybe Lewis will have a case of the drops, but that is just as likely as Edge doing the same.

 

I just happen to think this is the worst possible match-up that Edge can face this year, so why would I rely upon him when there is another player on my roster with a better chance to put up numbers?  "Because that's the way it always is, you start your studs".  Free Will enables me to ask "why?".

 

I bet there are few people on this BB who can tell me a scenario of how Parker will get 100+ yards and a TD.  I just think it is a h*ll of a lot more likely that Parker will do it, and Edge won't.

 

The battle between my ears continues... :D

 

974004[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

 

Luke...Trust your feelings! Feel the Force within you! Start Parker.

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12/19/05 Baltimore at Indianapolis

 

James: 22 carries 69 yards 1 TD/ 1 reception 23 yards

10/13/02

 

Interestingly, the Colts struggle the most against 3-4 defenses.  The Ravens are not running a 3-4 this year, but are instead running the 46 defense. 

 

971789[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

 

Another reason to go with James: the 46 is TOUGH to run correctly. Until I see the Ravens succeed at it consistently the jury is out IMO. The Bears ran it so well because they had the proper personnel, which I'm not sure the Ravens have. They've got Lewis, Suggs and McCalister but the DL isn't as strong or deep as the Bears' was, which is the key to getting to the QB. Give Manning time, he picks apart the 2ndary - then the running lanes open up. Thinks Dolphins Bears Monday Night 1985 - and the Ravens are the one with 'Dan Marino' or all the practice that they need probably either.

 

Also if Lewis can't call the correct audibles at the line it becomes a house of cards.

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Just hearing a suggestion to sit James and start Parker as a replacement makes me... makes me.... ummm.... want to SING!

 

Oompa, Loompa, doom-pa-dee-do

I have another puzzle for you

Oompa, Loompa, doom-pa-da-dee

If you are wise, you'll listen to me

 

Who do you blame when your kid is a brat?

Pampered and spoiled like a Siamese cat

Blaming the kids is a lie and a shame

You know exactly who's to blame

 

The mother and the father

 

Oompa, Loompa, doom-pa-dee-da

If you're not spoiled, then you will go far

You will live in happiness too

Like the Oompa Loompa doom-pa-dee-do

 

971984[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

you need to get out of Youngstown more...

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Another reason to go with James: the 46 is TOUGH to run correctly. Until I see the Ravens succeed at it consistently the jury is out IMO. The Bears ran it so well because they had the proper personnel, which I'm not sure the Ravens have. They've got Lewis, Suggs and McCalister but the DL isn't as strong or deep as the Bears' was, which is the key to getting to the QB. Give Manning time, he picks apart the 2ndary - then the running lanes open up. Thinks Dolphins Bears Monday Night 1985 - and the Ravens are the one with 'Dan Marino' or all the practice that they need probably either.

 

Also if Lewis can't call the correct audibles at the line it becomes a house of cards.

 

974126[/snapback]

 

 

 

How have they looked running it in preseason?

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Your right "always start your studs" is a brainless response and most defiantly does not always apply.

 

I will also be benching my 1st round pick Dominick Davis for Willie Parker this week.

 

I say, go for it! Even if you are wrong, based on the matchups, you’re not going to be wrong by much. I would not be the least bit shocked if Parker ends up with 120-130 yards and 2 TD's. I fully expect Pitt to take an easy,early lead and run the **** out of the ball in the 2nd half.

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I just happen to think this is the worst possible match-up that Edge can face this year, so why would I rely upon him when there is another player on my roster with a better chance to put up numbers?  "Because that's the way it always is, you start your studs".  Free Will enables me to ask "why?".

 

I bet there are few people on this BB who can tell me a scenario of how Parker will get 100+ yards and a TD.  I just think it is a h*ll of a lot more likely that Parker will do it, and Edge won't.

 

The battle between my ears continues... :D

 

974004[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

I feel you, DD, and like I said, your arguments are very well considered. But keep in mind that "rules" like ASYS, if you want to call them that, come to be "Rules" because they are borne out over time. Do you really need to gash yourself in the throat to know that running with Scissors is maybe not the best idea?

 

If you are like me, you probably spent months studying up, reading articles, crunching numbers and carefully analyzing who would be the best player you could possibly take to help you win your league, all culminating in your pick of Edgerrin James. But now you are setting aside all that research & considering benching the guy that you valued over all others, to start someone who isn't even proven enough to rise above 3rd on his own team's depth chart. I've gotta agree that you are really overthinking this.

 

Willie may have potential, but at this point the fact is he's a stop-gap placeholder, an mere injury fill in, whereas Edgerrin is a primary weapon in an offense built specifically to exploit his talents.

 

Not to mention that the 100+ yards and a TD that you seem to require fom Edge is no guarantee, even coming from Parker. And Tenn, despite their Def problems last year, are a very well coached team with SOME talent. They will game plan a way to contain a 2nd year RB in his first ever start.

 

Plus, It's first game of the season. Emotions will be higher for both teams than normal, so ANYTHING can happen. Defenses don't often gel immediately into top form week one, especially when implementing a new system. If anything, this may be the BEST game all season to start a RB against the Ravens.

 

Anyway, that's my opinion. However you decide, go forth & conquer, & best of luck to you. :D

Edited by Bonehand
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Plain and simple Parker will have a better game one then Edge. The "always start your stud" excuse is getting lame. If you've analysed the matchups and believe that a lesser rated player will have a better game than the higher ranked player then by all means play him

 

I'm benching McAlister this week and am starting Parker in 2 different leagues.

AWAYS START THE PLAYER YOU THINK WILL SCORE THE MOST POINTS.

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Plain and simple Parker will have a better game one then Edge. The "always start your stud" excuse is getting lame. If you've analysed the matchups and believe that a lesser rated player will have a better game than the higher ranked player then by all means play him

 

I'm benching McAlister this week and am starting Parker in 2 different leagues.

AWAYS START THE PLAYER YOU THINK WILL SCORE THE MOST POINTS.

 

974545[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Now YOU have lost it. You are going to bench Deuce against the team he ran for like 160 yards and a TD on at the end of last season? Deuce is definitely UNBENCHABLE.

 

True always start your stud doesn't always apply. But, in this case it does. Edge will get 20 + touches. While he may not get 100 yards on the ground, I'll wager he'll get oer 100 total and around 80 rushing + a TD. Who knows what Parker will bring. He's unproven and no one know how he will be used. I can guarantee that Haynes will almost get a 50-50 split. If you think Parker will beat out Edge with half the carries, then by all means start him. But don't get missing on Monday when we all come back to say we told you guys :D so.

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Your right "always start your studs" is a brainless response and most defiantly does not always apply.

 

I will also be benching my 1st round pick Dominick Davis for Willie Parker this week.

 

I say, go for it! Even if you are wrong, based on the matchups, you’re not going to be wrong by much. I would not be the least bit shocked if Parker ends up with 120-130 yards and 2 TD's. I fully expect Pitt to take an easy,early lead and run the **** out of the ball in the 2nd half.

 

974180[/snapback]

 

 

 

I think thats solid reasoning. The Texans offense is very suspect, and against Buffalo he'll have it tough going. I'm in a similar situation, thinking about starting Parker over L. Jordan. What do you think about that?

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Now YOU have lost it.  You are going to bench Deuce against the team he ran for like 160 yards and a TD on at the end of last season? Deuce is definitely UNBENCHABLE. 

 

True always start your stud doesn't always apply.  But, in this case it does.  Edge will get 20 + touches.  While he may not get 100 yards on the ground, I'll wager he'll get oer 100 total and around 80 rushing + a TD.  Who knows what Parker will bring.  He's unproven and no one know how he will be used.  I can guarantee that Haynes will almost get a 50-50 split.  If you think Parker will beat out Edge with half the carries, then by all means start him.  But don't get missing on Monday when we all come back to say we told you guys  :D so.

 

974634[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

 

haynes and parker will not split carries.. haynes is only good for 3rd downs when he can catch teams by surprise on draw plays.. hes just not good. cant run over guys or out-run them either. parker will get the carries.. who knows how many, but it certainly wont be split.

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