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Steeltown Dre

The simple "Pick 2" thread: WR2 and WR3

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Holt is my #1 by far. Need a #2 and #3 from 4 guys who are solid options this week.

 

All are rated S2 by Start/Bench. Here are projections and comments on each:

 

Steve Smith @ Mia: 70 yds, 1TD: If Car can't run the ball well, they'll go to Smith as long as he can get open. He has good potential this week, but I thought he would do better last week against the less talented secondary in NE but he did not...."Smith will draw shut-down corner Sam Madison in this matchup. The edge in this one goes to Smith. Madison has great cover skills but has lost a step and can not recover from mistakes like he used to. Smith's speed and excellent route running will cause him problems.

 

Deion Branch @ Pitt: 80 yds, 1TD: As a Steelers fan, I've seen Branch burn our secondary in the past. The only thing is I think our D is even better this season, so who knows what will happen.... "The last time he saw the Steelers, Branch went off for 116 yards and a score through the air, while adding a rushing touchdown as well. Branch remained Brady's prime target last week, a good sign for fantasy owners looking for a reliable NE receiver for their team. He did drop a couple of balls last week, highly unusual for him. The Pittsburgh corners are not the strength of their defensive unit and Branch should maintain his solid fantasy pace."

 

 

TJ Housh @ Chi: 50 yds, 1TD: Cincy's offense could be in for a suprise this week against a tough Chi D. Chicago's D is tougher than SF and Mia, but not as tough as Pitt (in my opinion). So Housh gets bumped down for that, but then again, Cincy's offense is more explosive than Dallas, Carolina, so he gets bumped up for that. Tough call against Chicago here....."Both Johnson and WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh remain fantasy starters as both have the ability to make rookie safety Chris Harris pay for the coverage choices he'll have to make. The key will be getting Palmer the protection he needs to find the open option down field.

 

 

Key Johnson @ SF: 60 yds: Key is not the #1 option all of the time, but who knows what Parcells will do. Last week I had Westbrook, and felt like he could have had 3 TDs if Reid wanted to give them to him. Instead he let Donovan pad his stats. Julius Jones could explode, or it could be Key. Then again, it could be faster guys like Glenn or Crayton. With Key, I see slightly higher risk in the good options the Cowboys will have this week, but high reward potential as well.... "Keyshawn took a back seat to Glenn in last week's loss but Bledsoe should have little trouble finding him open against the very suspect CB Shawntae Spencer."

 

Any insight?

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Tj and Smith because I'm starting them on my team, so how could i give any other advice? I like those matchups....

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I'm starting smith and branch. I think both will see the better action. Johnson could have a good game, but expect the Cowboys to be comfortably up by the third and turn to the run game for the entire 4th Q to eat the clock.

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I would go with Smith and Housh as well. The Bear def has improved and they look good but Cincy's offense is also getting into high gear and I think they're gonna put up points anyway. Miami's secondary is their weak spot. Smith will have opportunities as long as Delhomme has time.

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Looking at the PASS 'D" against:

 

 

Deion Branch vs PIT PASS 'D' of 3.

 

Housh vs CHI PASS 'D' of 10.

 

Steve Smith vs MIA PASS 'D' of 16.

 

KJ vs S.F. PASS 'D' of 32.

 

-------------------------------------------

Thanks for your reply: but looking at this, do 'WE' want to Start Branch against a PASS 'D' of 3.

MY other two choices:

Stokley vs CLEV PASS 'D' of 30.

S. Parker vs DEN PASS 'D' of 15.

J. Smith vs NY J PASS 'D' of 9.

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But because its so early in the season, I think those numbers aren't to be relied upon hard/fast. For example, the Steelers were all in McNair's face and he couldn't hang in the pocket long enough to hit his WRs on deep routes. And the Texans are, well, the Texans and Carr is Carr. So its no suprise they have the #3 after those 2 games. I'm just going on last seasons games - NE seemed to light up Pitt in the air, and that is why I think Branch will have success. Its hard when you have many good #2 WRs to choose from.

 

And the other thing is that Cle pass D of 30 - do you think Indy will get an early lead and pound the ball? Will they keep throwing even if they are up big? Those are the two main questions you need to answer for yourself which will help in picking Stokley or not.

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Check out the game scans:

 

Week 1:

Housh - 7 plays, 5 completed

Smith - 14 plays, 8 completed

Branch - 12 plays, 7 completed

Key - 6 plays, 5 completed

 

Week 2:

Housh - 10 plays (2 runs), 5 completed

Smith - 6 plays, 4 completed

Branch - 14 plays, 8 completed

Key - 6 plays, 2 completed

 

Overall, Branch has had 26 plays, Smith 20 plays, Housh 17 plays, Key 12 plays.

 

So while NE seems to spread it out, they really do target Branch a lot, and he's caught 15 balls compared to 12 for Smith and 10 for Housh.

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I think we all assume NE spreads it around so much, just like we assumed they do not use their RB (when Corey came last year). No way I sit Branch. he is too good. He is always Brady's 1st option.

 

Same thing goes for Smith.

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Steeltown- dude, some nice numbers there- honestly had no idea Branch was getting that many opps.- interesting, I guess it always seems like they spread it out, espcially the TD's- Thanks for the Info-

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This is why its a difficult decision:

 

Branch gets looks but plays a tough Pitt D. However he has had success against them in the past.

 

Smith gets a lot of looks also, but with fewer wideout weapons on Car than on NE, he will also see a good amount of double coverage. He was HUGE week 1, not huge week 2, but will always get balls thrown his way.

 

Housh is on the brink if not already a constant starter. However he is not the #1, and does not get as many passes his way as Smith and Branch. He goes against a tough Chi D this week as well.

 

Key is clearly not in the class of the above 3, but with the Niners playing SF, he could be in for a good game. Bledsoe seems to be looking his way in the redzone, and Key may not have the yardage, but he is a good possession receiver and has better skills than Witten, so Drew looks his way for those short yardage/important catches (for first downs and TDs).

 

I've almost ruled out Key, not because I think he'll do poorly, but the potential for him to do as good will be limited due to his lack of receptions (and I get 0.5 points per reception). That also has me leaning towards Branch over Housh, but it's neck and neck.

 

I think I'm sold on Smith, though he plays a tough D (stat from projections: The Dolphins have allowed three passing scores this year and two went to opposing fullbacks at the goal line. )

 

Basically, its a tossup still between Branch, Smith and Housh.

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