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cre8tiff

A n00b question

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I (and others) have asked questions about Kickers and DEF and gotten, ummm, let's say a CHILLY reception. Does the general population here consider them irrelevant because they don't generate the points the skill positions do? Or is it simply too hard to predict what these positions will produce?

 

 

I don't know about others, but in my leagues, the opponents are often within 5 points of each other, so every point counts (We had a tie last week). Thus I ask people's opinions on what kickers look good, DEF matchups, etc.

 

I will no longer ask these questions, but want to know why it seems to rub so many people the wrong way.

 

:D

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I will no longer ask these questions, but want to know why it seems to rub so many people the wrong way.

 

1010512[/snapback]

 

 

 

:D Don't know, but your avatar disturbs me every time I see it.

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I have no problems with defense questions, although it really is a crapshoot. It's hard to predict turnovers, unless they are playing a bad offensive team.

 

Picking the right kicker is next to impossible.

Edited by CaptainHook

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I have no problems with defense questions, although it really is a crapshoot.  It's hard to predict turnovers, unless they are playing a bad offensive team.

 

Picking the right kicker is next to impossible.

 

1010541[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Yup.

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Its all about the uncertainty of the positions..No one can really predict anything but you can make more of an educated guess on a RB or WR or QB . You never know how the field position game is gonna end up and what kind of opportunities a Kicker is going to have and Defense has a lot of variables to try and predict..

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I think it's because questions/decisions like these are unpredictable and really can be answered yourself with little research. It's basically just a match-up decision and a gut feeling of who will do better.

 

 

Good luck,

 

The Dark Knight

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:D Don't know, but your avatar disturbs me every time I see it.

 

1010528[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

:D Thats one of Darins old avis

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Your avatar rocks though.

 

As far as your question goes, Def and K's are crapshoots. They add to your team but will not make or break them. It is understandable if your trying to decide between 2 RB's or WR's to start, but as little as K's and Def's usually score in the overall picture, you should be able to make those decisions yourself. Nothing personal by any means but if a person needs help deciding on his Def or K, should he really be playing FF at all?

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I have no problems with defense questions, although it really is a crapshoot.  It's hard to predict turnovers, unless they are playing a bad offensive team.

 

Picking the right kicker is next to impossible.

 

1010541[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

I can see that. Especially whe compounded with:

 

A) having numerous people try to glean this information over many season.

 

AND

 

B ) Such a volume of questions that CAN be answered.

 

Thanks for all your input fellas.

 

No offense at the statement above, but I always hope others may be more knowlegeable than me and may cause me to think of something from a different perspective. So I am capable of making my own decision, but smart enough to know there are others who might know more than me! :D

 

:D

Edited by cre8tiff

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The only thing more annoying than questions about defenses and kickers is questions about questions about defense and kickers :D

 

I think you can make it a little less of a crapshoot by checking the D and K matchup for the week in terms of the fantasy points they are giving up. I sometimes use DMD's "Team Position Ranks" to look for WW Ds and Ks if I don't have a stud at the position and I don't like the matchup for the players I currently have.

 

At some points last year i was starting a different WW K and D every week based on their opponent because I had no faith in the guys I had. It seemed to work OK and is a viable option if you need to use it.

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vanderjag or elam?? if somebody could give me the answer to this question, i would be asking them other questions, like which stock i should buy. not to rip on you dude, but there aint a person in the world who can pick out the winner with conviction. one team might score only touchdowns and one might kick 3 fg's. any information somebody would give would be boushwa. why would somebody ask that. pretty much same thing goes for the defense. the ravens got 6 sacks two picks and a fumble recovery.....unfortunately, the steelers had 2 returns for touchdowns which totally negated all those stats. again, why bother with this question...serves no purpose. you watch the games, you can decipher which defenses look better than others. once you play fantasy football long enough, you will come to the side that realizes you can't predict kickers or defenses points.

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heres a solution for you though, draft only one of each with there bye week coming late in the yr. this way, you have no decision to make and can wait until later to make a bye week waiver wire p/u. did it in a few leagues this yr. even did it with the te position in a couple of leagues.

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I (and others) have asked questions about Kickers and DEF and gotten, ummm, let's say a CHILLY reception. Does the general population here consider them irrelevant because they don't generate the points the skill positions do? Or is it simply too hard to predict what these positions will produce?

I don't know about others, but in my leagues, the opponents are often within 5 points of each other, so every point counts (We had a tie last week). Thus I ask people's opinions on what kickers look good, DEF matchups, etc.

 

I will no longer ask these questions, but want to know why it seems to rub so many people the wrong way.

 

:D

 

1010512[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Without reading other peopl's responses...

 

People pick kickers and defenses based on their ability to perform at a decent level throughout the season. On a game to game basis, there are way too many factors to really solidly rank them, and particularly kickers. I mean, who would have thought that Matt Stover would have the woeful start to the season he has. Or the Baltimore D for that matter.

 

You just can't really tell, and particularly not this eraly in the season. Ask NYG D and Cin D.

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People here vastly underestimate the importance of kickers and basically think all of them are equal. Nothing could be further from the truth. A top kicker can win you 3 or 4 games per year that you otherwise would have lost if you had a middle of the pack kicker.

 

That said, trying to predict how many points a kicker will score on any given week is a crapshoot. There is no information anyone could give you, other than perhaps injury news, that will help you project how many points your kicker will have on a weekly basis.

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cre, turn your brain off and do whatever Vet says. He is the smartest person ever.

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heres a solution for you though, draft only one of each with there bye week coming late in the yr.  this way, you have no decision to make and can wait until later to make a bye week waiver wire p/u.  did it in a few leagues this yr.  even did it with the te position in a couple of leagues.

 

1010723[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

That is my general strategy as well ... carry only 1 of each so I don't have to fret over such decisions. And in leagues with deeper rosters where I do carry 2 ... then I rarely play matchups and simply pick one to be the week-in and week-out starter.

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heres a solution for you though, draft only one of each with there bye week coming late in the yr.  this way, you have no decision to make and can wait until later to make a bye week waiver wire p/u.  did it in a few leagues this yr.  even did it with the te position in a couple of leagues.

 

1010723[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

 

:D I like that idea. I usually draft a kicker in the 9th round. I look for someone on a offense that is high scoring and dude plays homegames indoors. Let me know how that works I might try that next year.

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People here vastly underestimate the importance of kickers and basically think all of them are equal.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  A top kicker can win you 3 or 4 games per year that you otherwise would have lost if you had a middle of the pack kicker.

 

That said, trying to predict how many points a kicker will score on any given week is a crapshoot.  There is no information anyone could give you, other than perhaps injury news, that will help you project how many points your kicker will have on a weekly basis.

 

1010868[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

The problem is predicting which kickers will be top kickers. If you look at the weekly averages for the top 15 kickers from 2004 and 2003 you will see that kickers move up and down the rankings each year AND there is not a lot of difference between number 1 and number 12. In 2004 the difference was less than 2 points per game. In 2003 it was a little more pronounced at just under 4 points. Getting one of the top THREE kickers seems to be the key. After that there isn't much difference. However, the top 3 are never the same from year to year.

 

So you are spending WAY too much time trying to pick up an extra point or 2 a week attempting to identify a top 3 kicker each year ... because it is next to impossible. Just as it is next to impossible to predict each week. So it's not so much that the importance of kickers are 'underestimated' as much as it is that we realize the impossibility of predicting predicting which 3 kickers will top the league on a weekly basis and on an annual basis. Then there is the consideration that you can wait until the absolute last pick in the draft or even until waivers to find a kicker and at worst you will have only given up 1 or 2 points per game ... at best you might have found one of the top 3 kickers that week/year.

 

 

Here are weekly averages for the top 15 from my local in 2004:

 

 

1    Vinatieri, Adam NEP PK        	9.76            10.09   2    Elam, Jason DEN PK            	9      -0.76    10.06   3    Akers, David PHI PK            8.812  -0.948  	13.02   4    Graham, Shayne CIN PK          8.438  -1.322  	FA      5    Reed, Jeff PIT PK              8.312  -1.448  	FA      6    Vanderjagt, Mike IND PK        8.267  -1.493  	9.03    7    Longwell, Ryan GBP PK          8.125  -1.635  	12.05   8    Stover, Matt BAL PK            8.125  -1.635  	12.08   9    Kaeding, Nate SDC PK          	7.812  -1.948  	FA      10  	Janikowski, Sebastian OAK PK  	7.375  -2.385  	12.04   11  	Lindell, Rian BUF PK          	7.375  -2.385  	FA      12  	Brien, Doug NYJ PK            	7.312  -2.448  	FA      ----------------------------------------------------------13  	Brown, Josh SEA PK            	7.312  -2.448  	14.03   14  	Tynes, Lawrence KCC PK        	7.25  	-2.51    FA      15  	Carney, John NOS PK            7.062  -2.698  	FA      

 

 

And 2003:

 

 

1    Wilkins, Jeff STL PK          	11.231	-1.269	15.07   2    Vanderjagt, Mike IND PK        10.688	-1.812	12.08   3    Stover, Matt BAL PK            9.062  -3.438	FA      4    Anderson, Gary TEN PK          8.867  -3.633	FA      5    Kasay, John CAR PK            	8.75  	-3.75  FA      6    Elam, Jason DEN PK            	8.312  -4.188	10.12   7    Longwell, Ryan GBP PK          8      -4.5  	15.03   8    Akers, David PHI PK            7.75  	-4.75  8.09    9    Brown, Josh SEA PK            	7.625  -4.875	FA      10  	Edinger, Paul CHI PK          	7.5    -5    	FA      11  	Vinatieri, Adam NEP PK        	7.312  -5.188	15.02   12  	Cundiff, Billy DAL PK          7.267  -5.233	FA      ----------------------------------------------------------13  	Hall, John WAS PK              7.188  -5.312	FA      14  	Brien, Doug NYJ PK            	7.062  -5.438	FA      15  	Graham, Shayne CIN PK          7.062  -5.438	FA      

 

 

So far in 2005:

 

1    Graham, Shayne CIN PK          11.5          15.04   2    Hall, John WAS PK              11    	-0.5  	FA      3    Kasay, John CAR PK            	11    	-0.5  	FA      4    Tynes, Lawrence KCC PK        	11    	-0.5  	FA      5    Lindell, Rian BUF PK          	10.5  	-1    	FA      6    Rackers, Neil ARI PK          	10.5  	-1    	FA      7    Reed, Jeff PIT PK              10    	-1.5  	16.04   8    Wilkins, Jeff STL PK          	10    	-1.5  	16.05   9    Scobee, Josh JAC PK            9.5    -2    	FA      10  	Carney, John NOS PK            8.5    -3    	13.02   11  	Dawson, Phil CLE PK            7.5    -4    	FA      12  	Feely, Jay NYG PK              7.5    -4    	FA      ----------------------------------------------------------13  	Elam, Jason DEN PK            	7      -4.5  	12.12   14  	Bironas, Rob TEN PK            6.5    -5    	FA      15  	Bryant, Matt TBB PK            6.5    -5    	FA      

 

Edited by Grits and Shins

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I (and others) have asked questions about Kickers and DEF and gotten, ummm, let's say a CHILLY reception. Does the general population here consider them irrelevant because they don't generate the points the skill positions do? Or is it simply too hard to predict what these positions will produce?

I don't know about others, but in my leagues, the opponents are often within 5 points of each other, so every point counts (We had a tie last week). Thus I ask people's opinions on what kickers look good, DEF matchups, etc.

 

I will no longer ask these questions, but want to know why it seems to rub so many people the wrong way.

 

:D

 

1010512[/snapback]

 

 

 

That avatar is Oprahed up man. :D

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Agree with the sentiment here that Kickers and Defenses are crapshoot picks to cover bye weeks - Defenses especially. Like already noted, who can truly predict turnovers, fumble recoveries or DEF/ST D's? Kickers on the other hand, although not predictable, can be screened to make a best guess.

 

Looking at match-ups (good offense versus bad defense) is one option, but I have no qualms going to the spreads posted in Vegas and looking at the the over and unders. These guys who do this for a living are extremely good at their jobs. Looking at the O/U and then the point spreads can give you an idea as to what Vegas feels will be the final score, and sometimes can help a FF owner in deciding between player A and player B. Not a science, but sometimes better than flipping a coin.

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Looking at the O/U and then the point spreads can give you an idea as to what Vegas feels will be the final score

 

1011080[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Actually, the lines are set so that an equal amount of money is wagered on both teams. It really doesn't have anything to do with what the final score is expected to be.

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People here vastly underestimate the importance of kickers and basically think all of them are equal.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  A top kicker can win you 3 or 4 games per year that you otherwise would have lost if you had a middle of the pack kicker.

 

1010868[/snapback]

 

 

 

here's to you, mister vanderjagt-in-the-8th-round-picker...

 

real men of geeeenius.....

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here's to you, mister vanderjagt-in-the-8th-round-picker...

 

real men of geeeenius.....

 

1011207[/snapback]

 

 

 

:D:D

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here's to you, mister vanderjagt-in-the-8th-round-picker...

 

real men of geeeenius.....

 

1011207[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

I got him in the 9th in 2 leagues. :D

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