Steeltown Dre Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. Hopefully we can help each other out and make some money. Last week I went 6-2. Only 5-2 was posted - didn't have time to post my Philly play on Christmas. I also shared 3 "Pointspread Trends" w/ you. The first trend was home teams favored by -4 or less in the last 2 weeks of the year, the points really don't matter. This past week we had 9 teams. Only 1 won the game but failed to cover (GB). Only 1 won and covered (STL). The other 7 lost SU. So taking the dog ML would have won some nice cash last week. The second trend was home teams favored by between -6 and -8 points had gone 0-9-1 ATS since 2004. We had 2 teams (DAL -7 and ATL -6.5) and the play here would have been against both home teams. Both not only failed to cover but lost SU. Finally we had 3 road teams favored between -4 and -9 points. Last season they went 6-0-1 ATS. Both KC and CHI won and covered this week. Indy lost. So these teams went 2-1 this week. While these trends are not intended to guide your plays, they turned out really well last week. I hope everyone is growing their bankrolls. I've had winning days 9 out of the last 10, and have won 8 straight "primetime" matchups. I will look more at the games over the next couple days. Some of you guys have been doing well in the bowls, so keep posting that info. Good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 27, 2006 Share Posted December 27, 2006 I've been treading water all year - went way up (24-11 or something first 5 weeks), then quickly went to break even. Currently 57-56-1 on straight pro bets, but have made up the diff with college and parlays, so sitting up exactly 1 unit after about 150 bet. however, been studying things - just did a big sheet on this, but if you had bet 1 unit on the dog moneyline on every game this year, you'd be up 65 units (for betting 240). If you had started this in week 6, be up 77 units for betting 150. A group of us are doing it in week 17 (each putting up 533 for a unit bet total per game). Pisses me off that such an obvious play has been staring at me (I've been thinking about it for weeks) but I didn't bother checking on it till now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 28, 2006 Share Posted December 28, 2006 Yes the dogs have been good this year. Quite beneficial to me since I tend to lean that way. Not sure what the tally is for me, I don't keep track of every play I make But I ahve to be around the 70% range for the season. And had I been playing strictly larger bets on the games I decided to bet on, I would be in real nice shape this season. However, my bankroll what it is, I have resorted to parlays for a large portion of my action. I have hit some nice ones, but would have come out better with straight bets all the way through. Which I guess is why real gamblers will tell you to leave the parlays alone. But man, they sure are sweet when they hit. Watching Tennessee clinch that final game in my moneyline parlay last week was one of my happier moments. The Titans streak has been profitable. I'm ahead by a good margin for the season. Now we just need to avoid the crash and burn in the playoffs..............he says again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 28, 2006 Author Share Posted December 28, 2006 Good call on Tenn the past few weeks Rat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRU SOLDJA 22 Posted December 28, 2006 Share Posted December 28, 2006 Good call on Tenn the past few weeks Rat. Can someone explain Parlay and Progressive Parlay to me??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted December 28, 2006 Share Posted December 28, 2006 on the bowl front today we have a few games. one play that stands out to me is the over on the kstate/rutgers game. coming into the game the teams have a seven game over streak rolling. if the weather is fair in houston, we should have no problem getting the 44. first half should be a good play as well. as far as teams go today, very mildly i like okstate -2.5 over bama, kstate +7.5 against rutgers (even though rutgers was a darling to me over the yr, cashing some good moneyline plays) and cal -3 over a.m. these aren't strong plays like the one above however. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 28, 2006 Share Posted December 28, 2006 on the bowl front today we have a few games. one play that stands out to me is the over on the kstate/rutgers game. coming into the game the teams have a seven game over streak rolling. if the weather is fair in houston, we should have no problem getting the 44. first half should be a good play as well. as far as teams go today, very mildly i like okstate -2.5 over bama, kstate +7.5 against rutgers (even though rutgers was a darling to me over the yr, cashing some good moneyline plays) and cal -3 over a.m. these aren't strong plays like the one above however. I love Rutgers -7/7.5, and I gotta go the other way on the over - I like the under here. Agree that they've both been on an over train, but I think Rutgers defense will shut KSt down pretty much, and Rutgets will get their points, but i see a 24-10 type game here. I'm real light on Bama and Cal (just a cheap parlay with the two and Rutgers). Pretty heavy on Rutgers. DIdn't touch the totals as my bowl parlays with totals keep getting screwed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 28, 2006 Share Posted December 28, 2006 Can someone explain Parlay and Progressive Parlay to me??? Parlay is just taking two seperate bets and making it one. So assuming i like Rutgers and the Under tonight (I do). I could bet each indivicually, and win 2 units, win one/lose one, or lose both. Or Icould parlay both bets, and if both win, I win 2.6 as the odds go up. If either doesnt' win, I lose the total. It's a fun way to do things as for low dollars, you can make some cash, but not necessarily smart - if you assume you have a 50-50 shot at a bet, the odds on a two team should be 4-1, not 2.6, and on a 3 team should be 8-1 not 5-1 (which is the standard payout). Of course, if we thought betting was 50-50 we wouldn't bother.... I believe a progressive is where you take say 4 bets, and do a 2 team, then if it wins, a 3 team, then if that wins, a 4 team, but bet it all upfront somehow - so if the first two cover, you win somethign at least. However, I'm really just guessing as I've never done one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted December 29, 2006 Share Posted December 29, 2006 rutgers getting heavy action bet up to -9 (when i left casino). bets on the over's on both rutgers/kstate and cal/a.m game are coming in at over 80% rate. i'm leary of rutgers being disappointed in playing in this bowl. if theres one thing that sucks, its betting on a totally unmotivated team. we'll see. i don't see schiano letting it happen, but the players might not be able to help it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trots Posted December 29, 2006 Share Posted December 29, 2006 on the bowl front today we have a few games. one play that stands out to me is the over on the kstate/rutgers game. coming into the game the teams have a seven game over streak rolling. if the weather is fair in houston, we should have no problem getting the 44. first half should be a good play as well. as far as teams go today, very mildly i like okstate -2.5 over bama, kstate +7.5 against rutgers (even though rutgers was a darling to me over the yr, cashing some good moneyline plays) and cal -3 over a.m. these aren't strong plays like the one above however. Good calls here besides the small one on K State. I did a 2 teamer with Rutgers even and Cal + 3 1/2. I don't see much to like in the Bowl games today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted December 29, 2006 Share Posted December 29, 2006 some of the easiest money i might have won this yr was on kentucky today. an uninspired unmotivated clemson team just didn't show up. kentucky was winning at halftime 14-6. the spread at halftime was kentucky +8 and +110. what a gift. clemson can't kick a field goal let alone an extra point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trots Posted December 29, 2006 Share Posted December 29, 2006 some of the easiest money i might have won this yr was on kentucky today. an uninspired unmotivated clemson team just didn't show up. kentucky was winning at halftime 14-6. the spread at halftime was kentucky +8 and +110. what a gift. clemson can't kick a field goal let alone an extra point. I did a small 2 teamer with Kentucky +17 1/2 and Houston +11 1/2. I also went small on Oregon St -3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted December 29, 2006 Share Posted December 29, 2006 NO +3 vs. CAR : Just because they clinched? I don't see them letting up at this point, especially if it means giving the Bush the ball instead of McAllister. DET +13 @ DAL : Neither team has had a final spread with these numbers since their respective Thanksgiving games. As bad as they've played, Detroit has lost by more than 2 TDs only twice this season (@ CHI in Wk 2, vs. MIA on Thanksgiving). PIT +6 @ CIN : Take BAL out of the equation and PIT is on a 5 game win streak. I could see CIN blowing the doors off this one early given the nature of the rivalry and the must-win situation, but this one seems like a closer matchup than record might indicate. SEA +3 @ TB : I'll contend that outside of OAK, TB has been the worst team in the NFL this season. SEA has been playing poorly of late, and does not have a solid track record in early start games. It might be the homer in me, but I don't see the Hawks going in and laying an egg to end a division winning season on a 4 game losing streak. CHI -3 vs. GB : Chicago could let GB have the ball the entire game and they would still cover this. Totals: CLE @ HOU O37.5 ATL @ PHI U43 BUF @ BAL O35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trots Posted December 30, 2006 Share Posted December 30, 2006 Let's go Boston College (-6 1/2) !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted December 30, 2006 Share Posted December 30, 2006 Let's go Boston College (-6 1/2) !! overs are the play on all these games today. even the defensive battle expected in the georgia/vatech game. all overs cashed yesterday and it could easily happen again. i have boston college moneyline with the over. 2nd half should go more our way trots. halftime numbers are b.c. -6 and over/under 24.5. not much defense being played today, number should go over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted December 30, 2006 Share Posted December 30, 2006 i forgot to add, a little birdie came by and whispered in my ear to play lasalle -3.5 tonight against niagara. college hoops not really my thing but pretty good source told me its a strong play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trots Posted December 30, 2006 Share Posted December 30, 2006 i forgot to add, a little birdie came by and whispered in my ear to play lasalle -3.5 tonight against niagara. college hoops not really my thing but pretty good source told me its a strong play. I love those little birdies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 31, 2006 Share Posted December 31, 2006 Does anyone here have a Pinnacle account (and is willing to essentially lend me $400...) Our little moneyline experiment ran into a problem when we realized between the three accounts we have, none of them do moneylines on games over 10 pts.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinatieri Is God Posted December 31, 2006 Share Posted December 31, 2006 I like Oakland + the points today. Jets have played above their heads this year and aren't quite at the point where they can put the beat down on someone whenever they want. I see a close one here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 31, 2006 Share Posted December 31, 2006 Does anyone here have a Pinnacle account (and is willing to essentially lend me $400...) Our little moneyline experiment ran into a problem when we realized between the three accounts we have, none of them do moneylines on games over 10 pts.... I do not have Pinnacle account, and I don't have $400 in the accounts I do have. The Longhornsdragged me down yesterday, failing to cover their end of a teaser bet at -3.5 (boy did I think that was a lock) but I did have 2 parlays hit on Georgia and the NY Giants last night so the day was saved. As for today, very few plays I like. I'm looking for motivated teams against inferior opponents, and I see two games that fit that mold. I'm on the Eagles over Atlanta, and Baltimore over Buffalo. Both are big numbers though and I will tread lightly even though I am confident both teams can put these underlings away fairly handily. I also like the Jets, but the 11.5 is more than I like to give. Dallas should handle Detroit as well but hte spread is 13. Again, a bit much for my taste. Might go teaser on those games. I think the Chiefs should handle the Jags also, and at -2 that is a pretty good play in my opinion. That's about all I am really looking at today. If it is a bad day, I drink beer tonight. A good day and it will be Crown Royal or Chivas. So the level of my hangover will be determined on the gridiron today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 31, 2006 Author Share Posted December 31, 2006 Small amounts have been placed on the following: Remember - Next week the playoffs start - no need to go crazy today. Even if you lost all your plays, you shouldn't be wagering the amount that it should affect your playoff run in the least. Here we go: Ari +14 SF +11 Min +2.5 NO 1st half and game KC/Jac O 37 Hou/Cle O 37.5 I like any of the following in 7 point teasers: Phi, Ari, SF, NO, Jac, NYJ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 31, 2006 Share Posted December 31, 2006 We ended up going with 12 games on dog moneyline - only Detroit, Oak, SF and Ari we couldn't get. I also have a four team going : NE and Sea ML / Pit +6 / Philly -8 Plus my normal Philly one unit bet (been betting a unit on Philly for 5 years - up about 10 units) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted January 1, 2007 Share Posted January 1, 2007 ok, that was ugly - had $750 coming in if Philly covers the 8....Detroit beating Dallas screwed that all up Also, our moneyline experiment would have won $760 if we could have got all 16 games, but cause the 4 biggest we couldn't get, ended up losing $109....definitely a good system though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted January 1, 2007 Author Share Posted January 1, 2007 Went 4-3 in straight plays and 3-1 in 7 team teasers. Total plays: 7-4 and plus money. Let's get ready for the playoffs - now that the holidays are over, more time to spend on analysis and picks. Tighter lines but smart plays can get big $$. Let's get this money next weekend! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 1, 2007 Share Posted January 1, 2007 Went 4-3 in straight plays and 3-1 in 7 team teasers. Total plays: 7-4 and plus money. Let's get ready for the playoffs - now that the holidays are over, more time to spend on analysis and picks. Tighter lines but smart plays can get big $$. Let's get this money next weekend! I went 3-2 with my calls I posted here, but added the Rams and the over before kickoff when it occurred to me that there was free money up for grabs in that one. A nice rebound from a rough run of college games the days before. I'm looking at the playoff spreads, and I want to know if anyone thinks I am suffering from clouded homerism. The Chiefs plus 6.5. Am I imagining things here, or is this like a license to print money? I have been burned by both of these teams so many times in the past, I know I should just walk away. But I can't imagine a scenario, outside of injury, that would keep Larry Johnson from trouncing this squad that got ripped up by Ron Dayne two weeks ago. I'm not convinced that the Colts are 6.5 points better than anybody. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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