Revised Serpentine draft

[MikesVikes]

I think this subject's been given legs since last year when like 50% of LT2 owners won their division or something like that. The Fanball guy, Charchian, talks about FF when he fills in on the KFAN in this area. He described it as LT2 is "destroying" the hobby of FF with his dominance.

This must be a way of FF'ers everywhere uniting and fighting back against the destruction of "evil."

[Chief]

You dont really believe picks 3-12 are as valuable as pick 1 or 2 ...

 

Every time I have drafted with you and you had the chance you picked one of the early picks. Now, you tell me it does not matter? Your actions speak louder than your words Sarge ...

 

However, I agree with you that you can win a league from any spot ... I also have done that. Its just much easier when you have a top pick ...

 

Look, if LT goes down, pick 1 is screwed. But frankly, if Reggie Bush goes down, pick 10 is just as screwed ...

 

I like you Sarge, but you know the early picks have an advantage. I at least want to hear that from you, even if you think this solution is inequitable ...

 

 

 

 

By the time #1 or #2 pick again, everyone else will already have 2 players, be it top shelve recievers,best of the rest running backs, or manning. I guess that doesn't have it's advantages as well..............

[Bronco Billy]

Without getting too much into draft value theory, here is the cumulative value of draft picks through the first 4 rounds of a draft in a 12 team redraft league:

 

 

   Typical serpentine Pick	  value	total1		43782		43243		42744		42325		41926		41597		41318		41069		408710	   407311	   406412	   4059Reversed at 3rd round Pick	value	total					1		43182		42763		42374		42045		41776		41547		41368		41219		411510	   411011	   411212	   4119

 

 

With the 3rd round reversal, it is plain to see that cumulative value differential has been reduced significantly from that of a standard serpentine draft. This has nothing to do with owner knowledge & experience, but is based solely upon relative value among the picks.

 

If you extend the numbers through the draft, that differential will actually grow just a little bit smaller, since the 12th owner will get the first pick in the 5th round also, and the 1st owner will get the 12th pick in the 5th round.

 

In short, it is simply a fairer system with which to draft. It decreases the inherent advantage in value that the owners who pick higher in the draft have over those who pick lower. And even further, there is no logical or rational argument against it. In fact, the only argument I've heard against this system are the old standards: "I don't get it" or "We've never done that before".

 

This will be a standard drafting system before too long. Get on the cutting edge & make yourself look smarter than you really may be - jump on board now. Just like performance scoring, different points for passing TDs rather than rushing/receiving TDs, decimal scoring, IDPs, etc. changed FF for the better, this will also.

[Sgt. Ryan]

Without getting too much into draft value theory, here is the cumulative value of draft picks through the first 4 rounds of a draft in a 12 team redraft league:

 

 

   Typical serpentine Pick	  value	total1		43782		43243		42744		42325		41926		41597		41318		41069		408710	   407311	   406412	   4059Reversed at 3rd round Pick	value	total					1		43182		42763		42374		42045		41776		41547		41368		41219		411510	   411011	   411212	   4119

 

 

With the 3rd round reversal, it is plain to see that cumulative value differential has been reduced significantly from that of a standard serpentine draft. This has nothing to do with owner knowledge & experience, but is based solely upon relative value among the picks.

 

If you extend the numbers through the draft, that differential will actually grow just a little bit smaller, since the 12th owner will get the first pick in the 5th round also, and the 1st owner will get the 12th pick in the 5th round.

 

In short, it is simply a fairer system with which to draft. It decreases the inherent advantage in value that the owners who pick higher in the draft have over those who pick lower. And even further, there is no logical or rational argument against it. In fact, the only argument I've heard against this system are the old standards: "I don't get it" or "We've never done that before".

 

This will be a standard drafting system before too long. Get on the cutting edge & make yourself look smarter than you really may be - jump on board now. Just like performance scoring, different points for passing TDs rather than rushing/receiving TDs, decimal scoring, IDPs, etc. changed FF for the better, this will also.

 

 

Fairer to who? Those who dont have a clue and get more higher chances at it. Sorry, I couldnt disagree more with this so called cutting edge change. Seems to me, if owners picking 12 knew what they were doing, they would have 2 of the top 13 players, and that holds a distinct advantage to 1 and 24. This seems to be a feel sorry for those picking later. In my local league we roll dice for the right to pick your draft position. Highest roll gets first choice, and the lowest roll gets the last pick left. Almost every yr, if you dont get one of the first 3 picks, the 4th choice moves down to #12. In fact pick 9 is usually the last slot remaining year after yr. If there was such an advantage to this, why year after yr are teams in many leagues doing this, when they have the option to pick their draft spot as high as possible.

 

 

I picked 12th last yr in the huddles BCS league, and went to the bowl, knocking out the LT owner in the process, only to lose to the team drafting 9th.

 

 

In the Huddle's Fusion league the team with LT and SA the past 3 yrs, hasnt even made the playoffs. Sorry Spain..... And this is a dynasty league. So basically this theory should eliminate Dynasty leagues every where. As if you dont get a high pick in the initial draft, you wont ever be able to compete. What a load of crap.....

 

Further proof......

 

In DW III I had LT and lost in round 1 of the playoffs to a team who didnt have SJax or LJ. In DW, the team with LT didnt make the playoffs. So these facts prove, having LT the #1 pick doesnt guarantee a damn thing. More than some forumula some dude who was probably picking 12, making excuses came up with.

Edited August 2, 2007 by Sgt. Ryan

[Bronco Billy]

Fairer to who? Those who dont have a clue and get more higher chances at it. Sorry, I couldnt disagree more with this so called cutting edge change. Seems to me, if owners picking 12 knew what they were doing, they would have 2 of the top 13 players, and that holds a distinct advantage to 1 and 24. This seems to be a feel sorry for those picking later. In my local league we roll dice for the right to pick your draft position. Highest roll gets first choice, and the lowest roll gets the last pick left. Almost every yr, if you dont get one of the first 3 picks, the 4th choice moves down to #12. In fact pick 9 is usually the last slot remaining year after yr. If there was such an advantage to this, why year after yr are teams in many leagues doing this, when they have the option to pick their draft spot as high as possible.

I picked 12th last yr in the huddles BCS league, and went to the bowl, knocking out the LT owner in the process, only to lose to the team drafting 9th.

In the Huddle's Fusion league the team with LT and SA the past 3 yrs, hasnt even made the playoffs. Sorry Spain..... And this is a dynasty league. So basically this theory should eliminate Dynasty leagues every where. As if you dont get a high pick in the initial draft, you wont ever be able to compete. What a load of crap.....

 

Further proof......

 

In DW III I had LT and lost in round 1 of the playoffs to a team who didnt have SJax or LJ. In DW, the team with LT didnt make the playoffs. So these facts prove, having LT the #1 pick doesnt guarantee a damn thing. More than some forumula some dude who was probably picking 12, making excuses came up with.

 

As usual, you completely confuse the arguments. You are arguing drafting skill, experience, and the luck factor. The logic of the reverse serpentine draft lies in the numbers, player value, and probability.

 

It's like you arguing that everyone should go to Vegas because you know 2 people who hit it big at the blackjack table. Despite your buddies having a good night, the reason Vegas is big business is because overall the odds are in their favor - all the time.

 

Just because there is some anecdotal evidence to the contrary doesn't change the fact - and it is fact, mind you - that this is clearly a more balanced way to draft. That you simply can't comprehend that and/or are too stubborn to change doesn't affect that fact. That you confuse your anecdotal evidence with "proof" of the standard system being better only reinforces that you don't understand player value measurements in any appreciable way, and therefore most probably can't comprehend the logic behind the 3rd round reversal system.

 

Oh, and BTW, further proof of you lack of comprehension is clearly demonstrated by your thinking that the 12/13 pick combination holds more value than the 1/24 pick combination. Funny that I didn't see you trying to swap 1st/2nd rounders in the HoF league with TDFFF. The owner of the 1/24 pick combo has a 9% to 10% edge in cumulative player value over the 12/13 combo owner after the first 2 rounds are over.

Edited August 2, 2007 by Bronco Billy

[FishFreak]

There will always be some resistant to change and stick with the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" attitude. I can absolutely respect that. But FF like anything else is all about improving and evolving the game to new heights. This system absolutely levels the playing field, keeping in mind owners still have to make solid judgement picks. Just to clarify I screwed up my initial e-mail. The owner picking first gets picks 1,24, 36 and 48 for the first 4 rounds. The owner picking twelve gets picks 12, 13, 25, 37 for the first 4 rounds. How is that not fair??? I'm currently trying to get my league to make the switch.

[Sgt. Ryan]

There will always be some resistant to change and stick with the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" attitude. I can absolutely respect that. But FF like anything else is all about improving and evolving the game to new heights. This system absolutely levels the playing field, keeping in mind owners still have to make solid judgement picks. Just to clarify I screwed up my initial e-mail. The owner picking first gets picks 1,24, 36 and 48 for the first 4 rounds. The owner picking twelve gets picks 12, 13, 25, 37 for the first 4 rounds. How is that not fair??? I'm currently trying to get my league to make the switch.

 

 

You're not getting it. Simply put.

 

This isnt resistance to change. This is, there is no reason to change. There are no facts over time to support this claim. How is, the way it is now, not fair. Because some geek said so. Sorry BB, I dont agree in the least bit, and it has nothing to do with change. I love change. I Started playing IDP leagues before most here, started playing decimal scoring the first yr it was available on MFL. And have added the flex to all my leagues, because I wanted something new. Change is good, when its for the better. But this isnt a positive change. What happens in 2 yrs, when there is no clear cut #1 player. What happens when there are 6 or 7 about the same, like the current WR situation. And the difference between 1 and 12 isnt as significant as it was last yr. This is the side to my stance you dont seem to get. Just because one year, the numbers are inflated, doesnt make that a rule every year.

 

 

Its my opinion, in most yrs the pick 12 and 13 are more valuable than 1 and 24. If this is true, then why would team 12 get pick #25 to add to that advantage. Ill tell you this. If someone takes Manning at 12, he is going to lose every yr. Because someone else will get Palmer, Brees or McNabb 3-4 rounds later. Manning may be the top scoring player in the league, but that wont win you the league. Last yr LT was the top scoring player, and didnt win many leagues I played, even the ones where I owned him. So it goes back to smart drafting and luck. yes Luck.

Edited August 2, 2007 by Sgt. Ryan

[Big Country]

Sarge - To be fair, you are comparing apples to oranges. It appears (other than maybe the BCS league) that you are looking at dynasty league results, whereas this theory should be only applied when looking at new drafts or redrafters. To use an example of a team with LT that is in its 5th year in a dynasty does not correlate very well to comparing draft values of a fresh draft.

 

Of course, my original argument stands that in order for the value part, which BB was kind enough to post, to work out, you must be very confident in the values assigned to the picks.

 

I suppose theoretically one could do the basic valuation I talk about quite often in the advice forum, apply those values to the picks in order to get an idea what the overall value of teams would be from each draft slot. Granted, number of teams, number of roster spots, starting lineup requirements and scoring system would all have an adverse affect on this, thus, it may well work out that this system could work out well for certain types of leagues but be completely unfair un other types of leagues.

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

I see no reason to mess with what works. One top 5 pick is not going to win or lose your league. The regular serpentine already levels the playing field IMO.

[FishFreak]

You're not getting it. Simply put.

 

This isnt resistance to change. This is, there is no reason to change. There are no facts over time to support this claim. How is, the way it is now, not fair. Because some geek said so. Sorry BB, I dont agree in the least bit, and it has nothing to do with change. I love change. I Started playing IDP leagues before most here, started playing decimal scoring the first yr it was available on MFL. And have added the flex to all my leagues, because I wanted something new. Change is good, when its for the better. But this isnt a positive change. What happens in 2 yrs, when there is no clear cut #1 player. What happens when there are 6 or 7 about the same, like the current WR situation. And the difference between 1 and 12 isnt as significant as it was last yr. This is the side to my stance you dont seem to get. Just because one year, the numbers are inflated, doesnt make that a rule every year.

Its my opinion, in most yrs the pick 12 and 13 are more valuable than 1 and 24. If this is true, then why would team 12 get pick #25 to add to that advantage. Ill tell you this. If someone takes Manning at 12, he is going to lose every yr. Because someone else will get Palmer, Brees or McNabb 3-4 rounds later. Manning may be the top scoring player in the league, but that wont win you the league. Last yr LT was the top scoring player, and didnt win many leagues I played, even the ones where I owned him. So it goes back to smart drafting and luck. yes Luck.

 

You're making waaay too many assumptions. At the end of the day, value picks, luck and sound judgement are going to win most people's leagues. But when you have breakout years like LT, S. Alexander etc. those teams have undisputable advantages to drafting near the top of the draft. This style (in theory) levels the playing field. Maybe I'm more biased towards it because my league awards the championship to the team with the most overall points. The Super Bowl playoff system is old and doesn't always reward the best overall team. In fact it usually doesn't.

 

To further validate this system just look at how the NFL values draft slots during the draft. If a team wants to move up from say the 10th pick to the no. 1 pick, they have to give up a TON.

[Sgt. Ryan]

As usual, you completely confuse the arguments. You are arguing drafting skill, experience, and the luck factor. The logic of the reverse serpentine draft lies in the numbers, player value, and probability.

 

It's like you arguing that everyone should go to Vegas because you know 2 people who hit it big at the blackjack table. Despite your buddies having a good night, the reason Vegas is big business is because overall the odds are in their favor - all the time.

 

Just because there is some anecdotal evidence to the contrary doesn't change the fact - and it is fact, mind you - that this is clearly a more balanced way to draft. That you simply can't comprehend that and/or are too stubborn to change doesn't affect that fact. That you confuse your anecdotal evidence with "proof" of the standard system being better only reinforces that you don't understand player value measurements in any appreciable way, and therefore most probably can't comprehend the logic behind the 3rd round reversal system.

 

Oh, and BTW, further proof of you lack of comprehension is clearly demonstrated by your thinking that the 12/13 pick combination holds more value than the 1/24 pick combination. Funny that I didn't see you trying to swap 1st/2nd rounders in the HoF league with TDFFF. The owner of the 1/24 pick combo has a 9% to 10% edge in cumulative player value over the 12/13 combo owner after the first 2 rounds are over.

 

 

Sorry BB, but drafting skills, experience and luck are what FF is all about. Numbers are for geeks, who dont factor in those 3. Im not arguing anything close to what you stated above. Im saying draft skill, expereince, and luck are more important than your so called numbers. And isnt what you are arguing anecdotal evidence to the contrary of the way it is now? Um yes.

 

Lets look at that word proof in Websters dictionary.

 

PROOF

 

Main Entry: 1proof

Pronunciation: 'prüf

Function: noun

Etymology: Middle English prof, prove, alteration of preve, from Anglo-French preove, from Late Latin proba, from Latin probare to prove -- more at PROVE

1 a : the cogency of evidence that compels acceptance by the mind of a truth or a fact b : the process or an instance of establishing the validity of a statement especially by derivation from other statements in accordance with principles of reasoning

2 obsolete : EXPERIENCE

3 : something that induces certainty or establishes validity

 

 

I think those experiences provide proof, the #1 pick doesnt alway win, so if that can be said as a fact. How are you proving there is such an advantage in winning the league with it the way it is now.

 

BB, give me a little credit, I believe I understand the value of players. But lets get real, you took McNabb in round 5 of the HOF league, and he will outscore 2/3s of the players drafted ahead of him. That is value, and your experience tells you waiting on a QB is a more sound tool, than some numbers or a certain draft position.

 

 

 

If I was picking 12/13, I certainly wouldnt have taken the picks Slick willie did. Who by the way owns those picks, not TDFFF. And I certainly think I could still win a league starting there. I picked 12th and made, but lost the SB last yr. BTW, I choose the #12 spot, after the first 4 were already taken. Because the 12 spot to me, held more value than spots 5 and 6. Which is another point, you fail to see. Those not picking 1-3, or 10-12, the middle picks, are at an even bigger disadvantage than before. Think, you didnt get one of the top 3, and then you dont get a high pick in round 3, where those at 12, got a player very similar to yours in round 1, got a better pick in round 2, and will then get a higher pick in round 3.

 

 

Sorry BB, this is as whack as anything Ive ever heard before, and I understand the idea, and completely disagree with it.

Edited August 2, 2007 by Sgt. Ryan

[Sgt. Ryan]

You're making waaay too many assumptions. At the end of the day, value picks, luck and sound judgement are going to win most people's leagues. But when you have breakout years like LT, S. Alexander etc. those teams have undisputable advantages to drafting near the top of the draft. This style (in theory) levels the playing field. Maybe I'm more biased towards it because my league awards the championship to the team with the most overall points. The Super Bowl playoff system is old and doesn't always reward the best overall team. In fact it usually doesn't.

 

To further validate this system just look at how the NFL values draft slots during the draft. If a team wants to move up from say the 10th pick to the no. 1 pick, they have to give up a TON.

 

 

I dont make assumptions, Im making educated guesses, which is the same thing you are doing when you make a draft pick. Value picks are not considered top picks, they are picks taken later than they should. How did owners taking Lamont Jordan early last yr do in most FF leagues. he was going top 6 or 7. Where is he being drafted this yr, and why wasnt LT taken #1 in every league last yr. Why, because there are no guarantees. LT went nuts, and few saw it coming.

 

 

And Jimmy Johnson who had high picks with the Cowboys came up with that chart, to maximize his haul in trades, which helped revamp the cowboys, at the Vikings expense.

 

 

How many times is the #1 pick in the NFL really better than those picked later. My educated guess, rarely. Usually Qbs are taken 1st overall, and better players are taken later.

Edited August 2, 2007 by Sgt. Ryan

[Bronco Billy]

Sorry BB, I dont agree in the least bit

 

That you don't agree doesn't change the facts. It just shows that you don't understand them.

 

Sarge - To be fair, you are comparing apples to oranges.

 

I think you're wasting your time here, BC. It's a matter of comprehension, and Sarge lacks it.

 

Even if you try to make it very simple - take the #1 rated player & a player at or near #24 vs #12 & #13, he still won't get it. Watch, I'll try.

 

Okay, Sarge, let's go to a cheat sheet. We'll use very simple .1/6 scoring. The #1 player listed on most cheatsheets this year is LT. The #12/#13 players are players like Travis Henry, Rudi Johnson, and Laurence Maroney. At #24 you'll find players like Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, and Thomas Jones. We'll use RBs since it might make it easier to comprehend in your mind.

 

So let's use rhino's valuable work and look at the players.

 

LT's weekly average is 22.5 ppw

The best 2 of Henry, Rudi, & Maroney is 14.0 & 13.9 ppw

The worst of Brown, Benson, & Jones is 12.1 ppw

 

Now, that is skewed as far as player value & scoring to the 12/13 pick owner.

 

LT plus the worst of the #24 pick = 22.5 ppw + 12.1 ppw = 34.6 ppw

The best 2 of the 12/13 picks = 14.0 ppw + 13.9 ppw = 27.9 ppw

 

Using these projections, LT plus the worst #24 has a 24% scoring edge over the 12/13 picks owner. Even if the 12/13 owner gets to pick first in round 3 (3rd round reversal), they still pick 12 in round 4, and the point differenetial between 3rd and 4th round players is significantly less than the top 1st round players and the rest of the players in rounds 1 & 2. But a serpentine draft compounds the advantage by letting the 1/24 owner draft the #25 player also. That magnifies the advantage they already enjoy.

 

Therefore, it should be clear to even someone like you who clearly doesn't understand player value that the owner of the #1 pick has a significant theoretical edge.

 

That the edge would disappear completely if LT were hurt in week 1 and were to go out for the rest of the season doesn't diminish the fact that during the draft, the owner of the 1/24 picks had a distinct, clear, and easily understood advantage.

 

That's the very basic, broken down, de-geeked argument here. Now, what part of that can't you comprehend?

Edited August 2, 2007 by Bronco Billy

[Bronco Billy]

I see no reason to mess with what works. One top 5 pick is not going to win or lose your league. The regular serpentine already levels the playing field IMO.

 

And you feel comfortable stating that despite clear evidence that it isn't true?

 

I suppose next you'll be arguing that the Earth is flat...

[MikesVikes]

Fairer to who? Those who dont have a clue and get more higher chances at it. Sorry, I couldnt disagree more with this so called cutting edge change. Seems to me, if owners picking 12 knew what they were doing, they would have 2 of the top 13 players, and that holds a distinct advantage to 1 and 24.

 

I'm not advocating the reverse draft order but you are conveniently overlooking where your 3rd round pick is (25) and where the guy picking 12th is (36). The first two rounds isn't the story.

 

According to your theory 1.01 + 2.12 = 1.12 + 2.01. I disagree. The problem is that the 1.01 guy now has an advantage over the 1.12 guy at this point and now he get to pick 3.01 to gain an additional advantage.

[Sgt. Ryan]

That you don't agree doesn't change the facts. It just shows that you don't understand them.

I think you're wasting your time here, BC. It's a matter of comprehension, and Sarge lacks it.

 

Even if you try to make it very simple - take the #1 rated player & a player at or near #24 vs #12 & #13, he still won't get it. Watch, I'll try.

 

Okay, Sarge, let's go to a cheat sheet. We'll use very simple .1/6 scoring. The #1 player listed on most cheatsheets this year is LT. The #12/#13 players are players like Travis Henry, Rudi Johnson, and Laurence Maroney. At #24 you'll find players like Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, and Thomas Jones. We'll use RBs since it might make it easier to comprehend in your mind.

 

So let's use rhino's valuable work and look at the players.

 

LT's weekly average is 22.5 ppw

The best 2 of Henry, Rudi, & Maroney is 14.0 & 13.9 ppw

The worst of Brown, Benson, & Jones is 12.1 ppw

 

Now, that is skewed as far as player value & scoring to the 12/13 pick owner.

 

LT plus the worst of the #24 pick = 22.5 ppw + 12.1 ppw = 34.6 ppw

The best 2 of the 12/13 picks = 14.0 ppw + 13.9 ppw = 27.9 ppw

 

Using these projections, LT plus the worst #24 has a 24% scoring edge over the 12/13 picks owner. Even if the 12/13 owner gets to pick first in round 3 (3rd round reversal), they still pick 12 in round 4, and the point differenetial between 3rd and 4th round players is significantly less than the top 1st round players and the rest of the players in rounds 1 & 2. But a serpentine draft compounds the advantage by letting the 1/24 owner draft the #25 player also. That magnifies the advantage they already enjoy.

 

Therefore, it should be clear to even someone like you who clearly doesn't understand player value that the owner of the #1 pick has a significant theoretical edge.

 

That the edge would disappear completely if LT were hurt in week 1 and were to go out for the rest of the season doesn't diminish the fact that during the draft, the owner of the 1/24 picks had a distinct, clear, and easily understood advantage.

 

That's the very basic, broken down, de-geeked argument here. Now, what part of that can't you comprehend?

 

 

Obviously, you cant make yoru point without resorting to personal attacks. And Im not going to go there. Just because you like the idea, doesnt mean its for everyone. Don;t kid yourself. I understand this perfectly, and disagree. You cant seem to handle that, so you resort to personal attacks. Lets keep the argument above the belt BB. Surely, you understand that.....

[Sgt. Ryan]

BTW, Ronnie Brown , Lamont Jordan, and Cadillac were all consensue top 13 picks a yr ago. . They were all busts. If you got any of them, you were not going to win period. Same thing can be said for owners of SA. Dude was a gimp most of the yr, and lost many leagues for those owners. BTW, I expect the leagues you drafted #1, if you did, you took LT right. Sure you did. Why do I bring this up, because no one saw what LT doing last yr, or he would have been #1 in every league. Same with Gore, same with Sjax. These players were taken all over the place. Picking 1st didnt guarantee you any of them. In every league I was in had SA or LJ taken #1. You think they want a do over on that at seasons end, sure they do. But that trumps this idea, that you have to pick 1st to win.

Edited August 2, 2007 by Sgt. Ryan

[Bronco Billy]

Obviously, you cant make yoru point without resorting to personal attacks. And Im not going to go there. Just because you like the idea, doesnt mean its for everyone. Don;t kid yourself. I understand this perfectly, and disagree. You cant seem to handle that, so you resort to personal attacks. Lets keep the argument above the belt BB. Surely, you understand that.....

 

 

Now that's rich! Sarge pleading for keeping things above the belt and not making personal attacks.

 

Okay, look at the scenario above and tell me what you don't understand. Seriously, I'm trying to help enlighten you here, not demean you. I presented a simple, easy to follow scenario that will play itself out across countless FF drafts this year. Are there parts you disagree with or don't understand? If so, please stop with the juvenile fractured feelings nonsense - especially coming from you - and either ask or rebut what is there.

[Sgt. Ryan]

I'm not advocating the reverse draft order but you are conveniently overlooking where your 3rd round pick is (25) and where the guy picking 12th is (36). The first two rounds isn't the story.

 

According to your theory 1.01 + 2.12 = 1.12 + 2.01. I disagree. The problem is that the 1.01 guy now has an advantage over the 1.12 guy at this point and now he get to pick 3.01 to gain an additional advantage.

 

 

No, according to my theory, 1.12 and 2.1 are more valuable than 1.1 and 2.12. So 1.12 should not pick again at 3.1.

 

 

I really think some are losing sight of what this is really about. FF drafts are about accumulating talent. Picking 1st doesnt guarantee the top player, as the top player is usually a QB, taken in round 2 or later. It about building a team, avoiding injuries, and a lil luck. When is the last time the #1 player was #1 the next yr. Priest Holmes a handful of yrs back, and he wasnt even the top pick in most leagues in the 2nd yr, as many thought it was a fluke the 1st time. Wow, where were the value geeks on that one.

 

 

 

When was the last time any player did what SA and LT did in consecutive yrs the past 2.

 

 

There are no guarantees where you draft, who will be taken ahead of you, or who will fall. Right now, after 2 huge yrs by SA and LT people are crying for change. But very very few were smart enough to draft these 2 in their huge yrs at #1. yet we say #1 is more valuable than any other pick. Ridiculous....

[Caveman_Nick]

Has anyone crunched the numbers to see if picking early is actually an advantage in winning championships? I would need to see some kind of justification for a switch before I agreed to it.

[Sgt. Ryan]

 

Now that's rich! Sarge pleading for keeping things above the belt and not making personal attacks.

 

Okay, look at the scenario above and tell me what you don't understand. Seriously, I'm trying to help enlighten you here, not demean you. I presented a simple, easy to follow scenario that will play itself out across countless FF drafts this year. Are there parts you disagree with or don't understand? If so, please stop with the juvenile fractured feelings nonsense - especially coming from you - and either ask or rebut what is there.

 

 

Yea, how many took LT #1 overall last yr. You dont seem to be getting my POINT BB. LT went #3 in most of drafts, not 1.

 

That being said, the owner who was lucky enough to get LT had a advantage last yr. But that doesnt guarantee anything, THIS YEAR Just like SA the year before, as compared to last yr. Or like SJax and Gore last yr, who were drafted much later.

 

Its not where you draft, its who you draft.

 

 

I understood your scenerio the first time, and I dont agree with it. You dont need to enlighten me, you need to consider the other side of the argument, as you are asking me to do.....

Edited August 2, 2007 by Sgt. Ryan

[Big Country]

Has anyone crunched the numbers to see if picking early is actually an advantage in winning championships? I would need to see some kind of justification for a switch before I agreed to it.

 

It is a small sample size, over a short period of time, but I believw WCOFF did this for their leagues last year and it was a clear straightline downward tred from the first to 12th pick as far as who won the leagues. DOn't have a chance to go looking for it right now, maybe someone lese can. But, to justify a major change like this, you would need to show that trend over a longer period of time, like say looking at the last 10 years. If that trend held true over a period of time, then I would be more on board with advocating a major change like this.

 

As I said, unless you are very comfortable with the value numbers of the picks used by that other site, and really as long as everyone has a crystal ball and picks players in the correct value order, it is a wash IMO. I think there are sound arguments on both sides of the coin on this topic.

 

As one person earlier said, auction leagues obviouslt solve this dilemma, but the fact is the majority of FF leagues are drafts and likely will stay that way for the forseeable future. SO, if there was a larger sample size over time, say WCOFF shows the trend for 5-6 years (I'm sure they have the historical data to do this) that the earlier picks whan a disproportionate number of league titles, then there would be, IMO, a large enough sample size to show that draft position does have a major affect on league outcome. IMO, I prefer to use WCOFF as an example as when you are paying $1500 for a team, you are likely a savvy owner, not some 12 year old taking 4 kickers in a row on a free Yahoo league, so looking at a number of leagues made up of well versed FF owners would be a convincing argument for me... if it was shown over a period of time.. at least 5-10 years.

[Caveman_Nick]

It is a small sample size, over a short period of time, but I believw WCOFF did this for their leagues last year and it was a clear straightline downward tred from the first to 12th pick as far as who won the leagues. DOn't have a chance to go looking for it right now, maybe someone lese can. But, to justify a major change like this, you would need to show that trend over a longer period of time, like say looking at the last 10 years. If that trend held true over a period of time, then I would be more on board with advocating a major change like this.

 

I think the "over time" issue is really important here. It's not every season that a player is as dominant versus the field as LT was last year. And then I would want to know what the impact would be for slots 2 and 3 as well...

[FishFreak]

Has anyone crunched the numbers to see if picking early is actually an advantage in winning championships? I would need to see some kind of justification for a switch before I agreed to it.

 

That's a fair request I won't attempt to gather. Some of this suggested change is definately due to making up for guys picking 1,2,3 getting super studs and winning championships like LT last year. But mostly this is about altering round 3. Everyone is focusing on the entire draft, getting value picks, finding gems, making bust picks, etc.

 

This is really about correcting a distinct advantage the owners drafting 1, 2 and 3 have. Wheteher or not they take advantage of their draft slot or guys picking later on making better picks is irrelevant. In my heart I can honestly say picking

 

1,24,25 OR 2,23,26 OR 3,22,27 has an advantage over 12,13, 36 OR 11,14,35 OR 10,15,34 IMHO for a traditional serpentine draft.

[The Misfit]

That you don't agree doesn't change the facts. It just shows that you don't understand them.

I think you're wasting your time here, BC. It's a matter of comprehension, and Sarge lacks it.

 

Even if you try to make it very simple - take the #1 rated player & a player at or near #24 vs #12 & #13, he still won't get it. Watch, I'll try.

 

Okay, Sarge, let's go to a cheat sheet. We'll use very simple .1/6 scoring. The #1 player listed on most cheatsheets this year is LT. The #12/#13 players are players like Travis Henry, Rudi Johnson, and Laurence Maroney. At #24 you'll find players like Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, and Thomas Jones. We'll use RBs since it might make it easier to comprehend in your mind.

 

So let's use rhino's valuable work and look at the players.

 

LT's weekly average is 22.5 ppw

The best 2 of Henry, Rudi, & Maroney is 14.0 & 13.9 ppw

The worst of Brown, Benson, & Jones is 12.1 ppw

 

Now, that is skewed as far as player value & scoring to the 12/13 pick owner.

 

LT plus the worst of the #24 pick = 22.5 ppw + 12.1 ppw = 34.6 ppw

The best 2 of the 12/13 picks = 14.0 ppw + 13.9 ppw = 27.9 ppw

 

Using these projections, LT plus the worst #24 has a 24% scoring edge over the 12/13 picks owner. Even if the 12/13 owner gets to pick first in round 3 (3rd round reversal), they still pick 12 in round 4, and the point differenetial between 3rd and 4th round players is significantly less than the top 1st round players and the rest of the players in rounds 1 & 2. But a serpentine draft compounds the advantage by letting the 1/24 owner draft the #25 player also. That magnifies the advantage they already enjoy.

 

Therefore, it should be clear to even someone like you who clearly doesn't understand player value that the owner of the #1 pick has a significant theoretical edge.

 

That the edge would disappear completely if LT were hurt in week 1 and were to go out for the rest of the season doesn't diminish the fact that during the draft, the owner of the 1/24 picks had a distinct, clear, and easily understood advantage.

 

That's the very basic, broken down, de-geeked argument here. Now, what part of that can't you comprehend?

 

BB, you'd be great in middle management in a large corporation, because you show a similar ability to use "logic" to make a "statistical" argument that has absolutely no grounding in either logic or statistics.

 

A number only has statistical validity if the numbers it is based on actually represent something. The argument you are making is based on numbers that are completely made up -- a valuation system based on past performances as applied to future draft picks, in a world where all the players are drafted in exact proportion to their fantasy output at the end of the year, as accurately projected on the same cheat sheet used by everyone.

 

You can argue that you prefer the system of think it's more fair, but don't drag "statistiics" into this, because you don't have any. You (or rather, whomever created this at a "rival website") are just making up values to justify the argument.

 

By comparison, take the Huddle perfect scoring system. That actually uses real numbers -- there are 6 points for a TD, etc. You can use numbers to make the case that such a scoring system is better than a traditional performance scoring system. You can't do the same with this sytem because there are no real numbers -- just made up stuff that would never happen in the real world.

 

I think sarge is dead on right in every single point he's made about this issue. The worst thing about this "revised" system is that it gives credence to the idea that your draft position plays a defining role in your team's performance -- in other words, it simply gives people an excuse to suck. Of all people, BB, you should not be advocating a system that encourages people to blame something else for their own errors of judgment (or, in many cases, just bad luck).