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Week 11 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Steeltown Dre
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Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

A lot of us had good nights on MNF, let's try to carry that into this week.

 

I have posted 2 types of plays this year. My system plays which are derived from a system I have created, and my posted plays are either plays in addition to those plays (or at times may fade the system), or system plays which I want to alert as plays I think should have value:

 

I will update my system plays in the next post. Here are my posted plays:

 

Week 1: 5-0 (Leans posted not played: 3-1)

Week 2: 2-1

Week 3: 4-0

Week 4: 3-1

Week 5: 2-2-1

Week 6: 3-2-1

Week 7: 2-4

Week 8: 1-5

Week 9: 5-6 (Leans posted 2-0)

Week 10: 2-1

 

Overall: 29-22-2

(Including leans: 34-23-2) (60%)

 

I'll share my updated system records and week 11 system plays next....

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System Plays Week 11:

 

One note to point out: These system plays are based on the teams and what they have done this season. It does not take into account injuries. Therefore, when it selects a team like Indy, it's up to me (or you if you are following any of these) to determine if you would still want to play Indy despite their injury situation. Similarly, St. Louis seems to be a team back on track. Whereas SF has fallen apart recently. The system does not know that SF is terrible of late and St. Louis is now healthy. Based on the season, it likes SF. So if you think StL is back and SF is not, then don't play SF.

 

The same would go for totals as well. What makes the system quality is that it's hitting at high season win % despite not knowing when to lay off a team that is injured or cold.

 

1. Top ATS predictor has gone 7-4 (64%) this season and went 0-1 last weekend. This weekend it is taking:

 

Ind

SF

 

2. Top 5 leans each week:

 

Week 3: 4-1

Week 4: 5-0

Week 5: 2-3

Week 6: 3-2

Week 7: 2-3

Week 8: 3-2

Week 9: 4-1

Week 10: 1-4 (ouch)

 

Total 24-16 (60%)

 

For week 10, the top 5 leans are:

 

Ind

Min

Hou

GB

SF

 

3. I have one ATS simulator that is pretty honest, and one that is more biased towards the dogs. I keep track of when both simulators show value for the same team. This system has gone 28-19-6 ATS so far (60%) which includes 0-3-1 last week (another ouch!).

 

This week both systems show value for:

 

Bal

Pit

Atl

SF

Ten

 

 

4. I have also tracked when I have seen the wrong team favored. In other words, times when my system is showing the dog could actually win the game. In some cases, the dog does win, in other cases he covers, and then of course, there are times he fails to cover.

 

Here's how those picks have gone:

 

Week 3: Hou over Indy (ATS and SU Loss), GB over SD (ATS and SU Win), ATL over Car (ATS and SU Loss), Ten over NO (ATS and SU win). 2-2 ATS, 2-2 SU

Week 4: Cle over Bal (ATS and SU Win), Det over Chi (ATS and SU Win), Buf tie w/ NYJ (ATS win and SU Loss), NYG over Phi (ATS and SU win). 4-0 ATS, 3-1 SU

Week 5: KC over Jac (ATS and SU Loss), SF over Bal (ATS win and SU Loss). 1-1 ATS, 0-2 SU

Week 6: KC over Cin (ATS and SU Win). 1-0 ATS, 1-0 SU

Week 7: Buf over Bal (ATS and SU Win), TB over Det (ATS and SU Loss), Jac over Ind (ATS and SU Loss). 1-2 ATS and 1-2 SU

Week 8: Min over Philly (ATS and SU Loss)

Week 9: NYJ over Was (ATS Win, SU Loss), Jac over NO (ATS and SU Loss), Buf over Cin (ATS and SU Win), Phi over Dal (ATS and SU Loss)

Week 10: Mia over Buf (ATS Push, SU L), Oak over Chi (ATS and SU L), NYG over Dal (ATS and SU L), Det over Ari (ATS and SU L)

 

Summary: 11-11-1 ATS, 8-15 SU

 

This week here's the games the system is showing the wrong team is favored:

 

Bal over Cle

Det over NYG

SF over StL

 

____________________________________________

 

 

Now, onto the O/U Systems:

 

1. Top Overs predictor has gone 11-0 this season including 0-0 last weekend. It puts its undefeated record on the line with:

 

GB/Car Over

 

2. I also have another Overs predictor which is 16-4 (80%) this season including 2-0 last weekend.

 

This weekend it has no selections

 

3. The best Overs simulator has gone 28-17 this season (62%) including 2-3 last weekend. Here are all Overs leans for this weekend:

 

Oak/Min

Pit/NYJ

TB/Atl

Mia/Phi

GB/Car

Sea/Chi

STL/SF UNDER

 

4. The best Unders simulator has gone 40-27 (60%) including a 5-3 last weekend. This weekend it has:

 

Ind/KC Under

Cle/Bal Under

Cin/AZ Under

Was/Dal Under

NO/Hou Under

NYG/Det Under

STL/SF Under

 

5. When I combine these 2 simulators and compare each game, there are times that even the Over simulator has a lean to the Under, and sometimes even the Unders simulator has a lean to the Over. When both simulators lean to the same side, I have tracked those plays. The record has been 31-18 (63%) including 3-1 last weekend.

 

This weekend we have:

 

Oak/Min Over

Pit/NYJ Over

Cin/AZ Under

No/Hou Under

Car/GB Over

Det/NYG Under

StL/SF Under

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Funny thing Dre, even before reading your post I thought the wrong team was favored in CLE @ BAL. I actually like BAL to win this game; at the very worst it should cover.

 

The public's perception of Cleveland has never been higher, and that of Baltimore never lower. I'm thinking BAL +2.5 is the way to go.

 

McCallister should be back this week and the D showed me something that I did not expect, it was pretty rock solid, actually. Only giving up 15 points to the Bengals, DESPITE the numerous turnovers, was pretty impressive.

 

CIN has more weapons than CLE, and the BAL D will be healthier this week, if McCallister returns that provides a huge boost.

 

The offense will be improved under Boller (how could it not be :D ) Hopefully Heap will be in the lineup this week.

 

CLE is a much improved team, no doubt about it, but as you mentioned last week, Special Teams kept them in the game against PIT.

 

BAL is not a good team, but it is NOT as bad as it has played the last couple weeks.

 

I like BAL and the points.

Edited by Gdawg
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Funny thing Dre, even before reading your post I thought the wrong team was favored in CLE @ BAL. I actually like BAL to win this game; at the very worst it should cover.

 

The public's perception of Cleveland has never been higher, and that of Baltimore never lower. I'm thinking BAL +2.5 is the way to go.

 

McCallister should be back this week and the D showed me something that I did not expect, it was pretty rock solid, actually. Only giving up 15 points to the Bengals, DESPITE the numerous turnovers, was pretty impressive.

 

CIN has more weapons than CLE, and the BAL D will be healthier this week, if McCallister returns that provides a huge boost.

 

The offense will be improved under Boller (how could it not be :D ) Hopefully Heap will be in the lineup this week.

 

CLE is a much improved team, no doubt about it, but as you mentioned last week, Special Teams kept them in the game against PIT.

 

BAL is not a good team, but it is NOT as bad as it has played the last couple weeks.

 

I like BAL and the points.

 

I like that you like Bal, because you seem to generally have a good feel for them. So much in gambling is about finding VALUE. The SF game represents value, despite the fact that it's hard to make a bet on SF. Why? Because SF stunk it up on MNF in front of a national audience, putting up the big goose egg. And StL dominated NO in a great game at home. So the line is going to reflect that fact.

 

Did you know that the line on SF/STL that was released at the Hilton back in week 10 (they release lines 1 week in advance) showed SF was a -4 point favorite vs. StL? Now they are 3 point home dogs. That's a 7 point swing to the home team, based on the week 10 games only!

 

FYI, here are the lines for week 11 that were released 2 sundays ago (right after the week 9 games ended):

 

JAX / sd NL

 

IND-14 / kc

 

MIN-4.5 / oak

 

BAL-3 / cle

 

pit-9.5 / NYJ

 

tb-3 / ATL

 

CIN-3.5 / az

 

PHL-9 / mia

 

ne-14.5 / BUF (SNF)

 

DAL-9.5 / was

 

HOU Pk / nor

 

GB-7 car

 

DET-1 / nyg

 

SF-4 / stl

 

SEA-5 / chi

 

ten-3 / DEN (MNF)

 

Some of the lines are exactly the same. Others are not. Some have lots of value. As much as we try, we can never get a 100% perfect insight into exactly what will happen. You take the team you think will get the job done, and you have your choice of games to choose from. But a lot of the time, at least for me, you have to make "value" plays. Public perception helps set the lines. Public can be swayed very easily by 1 game. As you know from playing games, sometimes you have a bad game, sometimes you don't matchup well w/ a particular team. That does not mean you can't get a W or a cover the next week. You never know. So while in general you may not win a lot by betting on some rotten teams, sometimes you go there because of the value.

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Actually, I just looked over those numbers, and my system which shows "wrong team favored" is picking 3 teams that were favored before the Week 10 games, and are now dogs because of how they looked in Week 10. that system hasn't been brilliant this season, to be sure, but at least it's not out in left field.

 

Bal was a 3 point home fav to Cle, and is now a 2.5 point home dog

SF was a 4 point home fav to StL, and is now a 3 point home dog

Det was a 1 point home fav to NYG, and is now a 3 point home dog

 

Another game that switched was Ten was a 3 point road fav IN DENVER (this rarely happens) and are now a 1 point road dog.

 

My system shows a tossup here, in fact, it is calculating a line of 0.0 (pickem), which is rare. So it's showing slight value in Ten, but nothing significant.

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I like that you like Bal, because you seem to generally have a good feel for them. So much in gambling is about finding VALUE. The SF game represents value, despite the fact that it's hard to make a bet on SF. Why? Because SF stunk it up on MNF in front of a national audience, putting up the big goose egg. And StL dominated NO in a great game at home. So the line is going to reflect that fact.

 

Did you know that the line on SF/STL that was released at the Hilton back in week 10 (they release lines 1 week in advance) showed SF was a -4 point favorite vs. StL? Now they are 3 point home dogs. That's a 7 point swing to the home team, based on the week 10 games only!

 

Some of the lines are exactly the same. Others are not. Some have lots of value. As much as we try, we can never get a 100% perfect insight into exactly what will happen. You take the team you think will get the job done, and you have your choice of games to choose from. But a lot of the time, at least for me, you have to make "value" plays. Public perception helps set the lines. Public can be swayed very easily by 1 game. As you know from playing games, sometimes you have a bad game, sometimes you don't matchup well w/ a particular team. That does not mean you can't get a W or a cover the next week. You never know. So while in general you may not win a lot by betting on some rotten teams, sometimes you go there because of the value.

 

Thanks Dre, it's taken me a bit but I think I have a pretty good handle on my team. I hate to bet against them as I have recently, but this is business as we all know. I'll be more firm once we get the word on McCallister and Heap, but even without them I think it's the right play. I believe I'm 3-1 ATS on BAL this season, and the Week One loss was a bad beat IMHO.

 

Fascinating stuff you've posted with regard to swings in the spreads. One good game, one bad game, and everything can change.

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Thanks Dre, it's taken me a bit but I think I have a pretty good handle on my team. I hate to bet against them as I have recently, but this is business as we all know. I'll be more firm once we get the word on McCallister and Heap, but even without them I think it's the right play. I believe I'm 3-1 ATS on BAL this season, and the Week One loss was a bad beat IMHO.

 

Fascinating stuff you've posted with regard to swings in the spreads. One good game, one bad game, and everything can change.

Haven't posted here much if at all, but it's always one of my favorite threads on the forum. Dre you amaze me every weekend with something worth thinking about. Thanks for sharing and good luck to all who provide insight on this thread. :D

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Haven't posted here much if at all, but it's always one of my favorite threads on the forum. Dre you amaze me every weekend with something worth thinking about. Thanks for sharing and good luck to all who provide insight on this thread. :D

 

 

I like this thread as well. One thing I wonder is how officiating crews affect over/under totals. It would be interesting to see what crews are more likely to take a game one direction or the other.

 

One of my favorites too guys, I learn something new here every week.

 

On another site I saw Burn's early call was BAL. Looks like we're right in line with the sharps on this game so far.

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One of my favorites too guys, I learn something new here every week.

 

On another site I saw Burn's early call was BAL. Looks like we're right in line with the sharps on this game so far.

With Boller, Baltimore will at least resemble an NFL team (did I just say that?). I don't see Cleveland sweeping.

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Actually, I just looked over those numbers, and my system which shows "wrong team favored" is picking 3 teams that were favored before the Week 10 games, and are now dogs because of how they looked in Week 10. that system hasn't been brilliant this season, to be sure, but at least it's not out in left field.

 

Bal was a 3 point home fav to Cle, and is now a 2.5 point home dog

SF was a 4 point home fav to StL, and is now a 3 point home dog

Det was a 1 point home fav to NYG, and is now a 3 point home dog

 

Another game that switched was Ten was a 3 point road fav IN DENVER (this rarely happens) and are now a 1 point road dog.

 

My system shows a tossup here, in fact, it is calculating a line of 0.0 (pickem), which is rare. So it's showing slight value in Ten, but nothing significant.

 

 

great info- I was thinking the same thing in reviewing lines today- some of them looked "off" to me by quite a bit- I think there is definite value here IMO

 

DET, SF, BAL - like all 3 in that order, although I like Den at home -

 

I think DET and SF are both solid plays.

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great info- I was thinking the same thing in reviewing lines today- some of them looked "off" to me by quite a bit- I think there is definite value here IMO

 

DET, SF, BAL - like all 3 in that order, although I like Den at home -

 

I think DET and SF are both solid plays.

 

DET has been terrific at home, and in light of the numbers Dre posted, SF looks like a nice play as well

 

I'm a little concerned about the health of K Jones, guess we'll know more later in the week. Still looks like a play!

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Oh, so you guys are all going to fall on the Baltimore dagger eh? You are betting that the worst offense in the NFL is going to put it on the Derek Anderson scoring machine? Come on guys. See reality for what it is. Don't put your hard earned money in Brian Billicks hands, I beseech you!! I'm large on Cleveland.......in case you hadn't guessed.

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Oh, so you guys are all going to fall on the Baltimore dagger eh? You are betting that the worst offense in the NFL is going to put it on the Derek Anderson scoring machine? Come on guys. See reality for what it is. Don't put your hard earned money in Brian Billicks hands, I beseech you!! I'm large on Cleveland.......in case you hadn't guessed.

More than likely, I will have no action on this game. But I don't see Cleveland winning in Baltimore.

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Oh, so you guys are all going to fall on the Baltimore dagger eh? You are betting that the worst offense in the NFL is going to put it on the Derek Anderson scoring machine? Come on guys. See reality for what it is. Don't put your hard earned money in Brian Billicks hands, I beseech you!! I'm large on Cleveland.......in case you hadn't guessed.

 

I just like the way the scenario is shaping up, and the value with regard to point movement over the last couple weeks.

 

Really need to see how things shape up with regard to injury, but I like BAL as a play this week.

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Anybody like +15 with Kansas City?

I'm just thinking out loud here. The Colts are decimated by injuries. Can they really put anybody away right now? I don't have much faith in the Chiefs, but that spread seems a little suspect despite the fact that it looks like a good system play. I lean KC that game, but probably wouldn't lay money on it. The Chiefs screw me over whether I bet for or against them.

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Oh, so you guys are all going to fall on the Baltimore dagger eh? You are betting that the worst offense in the NFL is going to put it on the Derek Anderson scoring machine? Come on guys. See reality for what it is. Don't put your hard earned money in Brian Billicks hands, I beseech you!! I'm large on Cleveland.......in case you hadn't guessed.

 

While I despise Billick, I've already made the play (at a "system play" level), and now have to look at either putting more on Bal or laying it off.

 

The Ravens at home are 3-1, beating Ari, NYJ, STL. None are that great. And losing to Cin. Looking closer at that Cin game, it was a game where Bal committed 6 turnovers and Cin committed none. Cin had the ball 7 times in Bal's red zone and scored 0 TDs. They had the ball 3 times in "goal to goal" situations and scored 0 TDs. The Bengals ran the ball 34 times for 70 yards. That's 2 yards per carry.

 

If you really look at it, Cle has only beat StL on the road, and lost to Oak, NE and Pit. The loss at Oak was the 3rd game of the year, so that was a while ago, but the fact still remains, they have only beat StL on the road.

 

If Bal can cut down on it's offensive miscues and get their CBs healthy, I can see them holding Cle to below their avg. points.

 

Remember, the line was Bal -4 and what happened last week. Cle got the equivalent of 2 special teams TDs (1 was a 100 yd TD and 1 was returned to the Pit 3 yard line which was then converted to a TD). On offense against the Steelers last week, they put up 14 points (again, not considering that 1 TD they scored off the Pit 3) and 0 points after halftime. They are explosive, but they can be stopped by a good D.

 

I see a Cle team who was leading at the half (not only to Pit), but IN Pit by a score of 21-9. They were on top of the world. Pit went on to outscore them 22-7 in the second half, w/ that 1 TD for Cle being on special teams. They flew back to Cle a team w/ a broken heart. Now they have to go back on the road against another physical team that will beat them up.

 

Bal already was swept by Cin. They are 0-1 against both Pit and Cle. They won't be able to shoot for a split w/ Pit until Week 17. Mentally, they have to be in this game. Their next games include a trip to SD next week, then home games against NE and Indy. This is Bal's best shot to get a win over the next month. If they lose this game, their season is toast. It already is, more or less, but they could at least save some face.

 

Lastly, one stat for you that does not have a large sample size, but I can't do anything about it. Here's the situation:

 

Team A lost on the road their prior game, despite leading at the half, and is now a road favs the following week.

Team B is facing Team A, and Team B is at home and coming off a loss.

 

Team A is 6-15 ATS since 1989, including 0-5 since 2002.

 

If Team B was at home when they lost the prior week, the road fav (Team A) is 1-5 ATS.

 

These trends point to the situation Cle finds themself in this week. While Cle may win going away (anything is possible), I think in this situation w/ this line, the play is either Bal or nothing. Just my opinion. Of course, I like home dogs to begin with...

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I'm just thinking out loud here. The Colts are decimated by injuries. Can they really put anybody away right now? I don't have much faith in the Chiefs, but that spread seems a little suspect despite the fact that it looks like a good system play. I lean KC that game, but probably wouldn't lay money on it. The Chiefs screw me over whether I bet for or against them.

 

The only reason I think the Chiefs have a shot is the pressure their D-Line could put on Manning. If Manning can beat that, I like Indy - the points.

 

Intersting point made by Parcells the other night was the main problem the injuries cause for a team is on special teams, because the guys they have to use on special teams are tired and not near the quality that they should be. Indy ranks 24th in KO returns and dead last in punt returns.

 

SD took advantage of it last week, scoring 2 TDs early on special teams. But look at SD. They have Sproles who is a great return man, they rank 6th in KO returns and 8th in punt returns.

 

But can KC take advantage of this? KC has Eddie Drummond, and ranks 30th in KO return avg and 25th in punt return avg. While they may get some better numbers on Sunday, I don't think they'll get 2 TDs.

 

Moving onto KC's O: They have a rookie in his 1st game and they have Priest Holmes. I know that Indy is banged up and lost Freeney, but will they lose 3 in a row? Doubtful, but the real question is, will they win by more than 2 TDs?

 

I already took Ind -14 (bought down) earlier in the week. I still like that bet, and for now am keeping it. Don't forget, last Jan, Ind beat KC in the playoff WC round, allowing Trent Green, Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzales to score 1 TD. Final score: Ind 23, KC 8.

 

How many points will Croyle and Priest put up? I think if a decimated Indy offense can still put up 21 on the road in SD, I think they can do better than that at home vs. KC. And I'm not sure I see KC putting up many points.

 

My system actually is showing a final of Ind 32, KC 8. Coincidence on the 8 for KC, but Indy probably won't put up 32, even if you knock it down to 28 and give KC 14 points, you have a push. This line is a tough one, and is probably steering people to pick KC who wouldn't ordinarily take them. Still, I'm seeing 70% on Indy. I'll still roll w/ it and see how it goes.

Edited by Steeltown Dre
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FYI, here are week 12 lines:

 

THUR: GB -1 at DET

THUR: NYJ +15' at DAL

THUR: IND -11' at ATL

SUN: BUF +7 at JAC

SUN: DEN +3 at CHI

SUN: TEX +6 at CLE

SUN: MIN +10 at NYG

SUN: NO -3 at CAR

SUN: RAI +5 at KC

SUN: SEA -3' at STL

SUN: TEN +2' at CIN

SUN: WAS +3' at TB

SUN: SF +9 at ARZ

SUN: BAL +9 at SD

SUN: PHI +17 at NE

MON: MIA +16' at PIT

 

You can look at this a lot, and might go crazy analyzing it.

 

For instance: if you look at the StL/SF matchup this week... If STL lost to SF, and Sea beat Chi, I doubt StL would only be a 3.5 home dog to Sea. So the linemaker at the Hilton is probably anticipating either StL beating SF or Sea losing to Chi, or both.

 

Again, you can drive yourself crazy. But if anyone else sees anything in these numbers that you think could give some perspective on this week's games, feel free to bring it up for discussion.

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Thanks Dre, it's taken me a bit but I think I have a pretty good handle on my team. I hate to bet against them as I have recently, but this is business as we all know. I'll be more firm once we get the word on McCallister and Heap, but even without them I think it's the right play. I believe I'm 3-1 ATS on BAL this season, and the Week One loss was a bad beat IMHO.

 

Fascinating stuff you've posted with regard to swings in the spreads. One good game, one bad game, and everything can change.

 

 

3-1 nice Gdawg.......I'm liking yours and Dres take on the Ravens. I'm definitely also liking the Under in this game. Ray Ray will be out in full force.

 

On another note, doesn't Miami +10 look like a nice play?

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great info- I was thinking the same thing in reviewing lines today- some of them looked "off" to me by quite a bit- I think there is definite value here IMO

 

DET, SF, BAL - like all 3 in that order, although I like Den at home -

 

I think DET and SF are both solid plays.

 

 

Wildcat I like the Detroit pick but why do you think SF will do any better than theyve been doing? I don't know maybe Im missing something, but it looks like STL is coming around with Sjax running the ball and Bulger/Holt/Bennett playing pretty good.

 

The momentum is really on STL's side, especially after the massive loss SF had the other night......and now with Dilfer taking the snaps......just doesnt look like a good play IMO.

 

I would of thought after Coach Nolan's father's death, they'd come out inspired.....instead they looked horrible.

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The only reason I think the Chiefs have a shot is the pressure their D-Line could put on Manning. If Manning can beat that, I like Indy - the points.

 

Intersting point made by Parcells the other night was the main problem the injuries cause for a team is on special teams, because the guys they have to use on special teams are tired and not near the quality that they should be. Indy ranks 24th in KO returns and dead last in punt returns.

 

SD took advantage of it last week, scoring 2 TDs early on special teams. But look at SD. They have Sproles who is a great return man, they rank 6th in KO returns and 8th in punt returns.

 

But can KC take advantage of this? KC has Eddie Drummond, and ranks 30th in KO return avg and 25th in punt return avg. While they may get some better numbers on Sunday, I don't think they'll get 2 TDs.

 

Moving onto KC's O: They have a rookie in his 1st game and they have Priest Holmes. I know that Indy is banged up and lost Freeney, but will they lose 3 in a row? Doubtful, but the real question is, will they win by more than 2 TDs?

 

I already took Ind -14 (bought down) earlier in the week. I still like that bet, and for now am keeping it. Don't forget, last Jan, Ind beat KC in the playoff WC round, allowing Trent Green, Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzales to score 1 TD. Final score: Ind 23, KC 8.

 

How many points will Croyle and Priest put up? I think if a decimated Indy offense can still put up 21 on the road in SD, I think they can do better than that at home vs. KC. And I'm not sure I see KC putting up many points.

 

My system actually is showing a final of Ind 32, KC 8. Coincidence on the 8 for KC, but Indy probably won't put up 32, even if you knock it down to 28 and give KC 14 points, you have a push. This line is a tough one, and is probably steering people to pick KC who wouldn't ordinarily take them. Still, I'm seeing 70% on Indy. I'll still roll w/ it and see how it goes.

 

I'd Take IND -14 in a heartbeat. Think you've gotta winner there, Dre.

 

IIRC, IND averages roughly 33-36 PPG at home. Harrison is in bad health and even if he does play He'll be a decoy, but Clark will be back.

 

Does anyone see Holmes having a better day against IND, on turf, than he did against DEN, which can't stop the run? I don't see it. A rookie (obstensibly speaking) starting in IND?

 

IND -14 all day.

Edited by Gdawg
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