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Divisional Weekend Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Steeltown Dre
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Very solid week for the Wildcard. 5-1 on posted plays and even better on large (3-0) and largest (1-0) plays. Last year I did very well in the wildcard as well, but slipped a bit in Divisional before capitalizing very nicely in the Championship round. Hoping to avoid a let down this weekend.

 

Part of the problem last year was that my system I always use to look for value went 3-0 in the wildcard sides, but 0-3 in the divisional sides. Part of the problem was it leaned towards all home teams last year. And home teams in the divisional round last year went 0-4 ATS and only 2-2 SU.

 

As I said in last week's thread, my system for last week was very close in terms of value to what actual lines were, w/ the only real lean showing as Pittsburgh. I ended up making personal plays on Sea, TB and SD as well as the system lean of Pit, so that put me at 3-1 on sides last week.

 

Here's what we are seeing for this week:

 

Fav Current Line, My Line

 

GB -9, My Line: -6.6

NE -11.5, My Line: -12.7

Ind -9, My Line: -7.8

Dal -9, My Line: -7.1

 

By my system, none of the values here qualify for actual "plays" (needs more value than what we're seeing), but it leans on anything w/ a value over 1.5. Therefore, it's leaning towards Sea and NYG in those games. I have not made those plays yet, still looking at the games.

 

As for totals, my top hitting 19-1 season to date overs system has a play on the GB/Sea Over

 

Last season my overs system had only 2 postseason plays, 1 was actually a very rare under for KC/Ind and the other was an over on Sea/Chi. Both were winners. So far it's 1-0 this postseason. But this game needs some additional consideration:

 

The sticky thing here is we've got a game on Sat in GB, in January, and it's only Monday. Current forcast I'm seeing is showing temps at 22 and falling to 20 by the end of the game, w/ a 20% chance of snow and light winds of 7-8 mph from the North. Those conditions are not bad whatsoever for GB this time of year. Sure it will be cold, but at least it's not the Sat night game. And the winds could be worse. However, it's only Monday and a lot can happen by Saturday. Especially w/ winds and predicted fronts.

 

Any locals from GB: any insight you have to weather conditions predicted for gametime, feel free to chime in and help out.

 

I will add right now that there have been 4 playoff games in GB since 2001. The O/U went 2-2. However, at least 40 points were scored in 3 of the 4 games:

 

05 Min/GB 31-17 = 48, total was 52.5, U

04 Sea/GB 27-33 = 60, total was 43.5, O

03 Atl/GB 27-7 = 34, total was 40.5, U

02 SF/GB 15-25 = 40, total was 39, O

 

So it's not like all games in GB in January will go under. But, the weather can be tricky, and if you have an over at 39.5 (I would buy the 1/2 point and you can get 40 out there right now), you'll be in trouble if a storm comes along, as there is no room for a middle when the line drops. You'll lose a few points more than likely by the time you actually lay it off. So again, any insight from GB locals would be very helpful, as I am going to try to get this play in as early as possible so half of my research/work today will be on the games, and half will be on the weather.

 

A note regarding historical numbers, which I will definitely get into more in the next post. In the divisional round for the last 5 seasons, at least 2 unders have hit, and sometimes 3. You have to go back to the playoff games in 2002 (2001 season) when only 1 of the 4 games went under. So historically speaking, we should get about 2 unders this weekend.

 

I'll get more into all of these matchups hopefully earlier rather than later this week. Hopefully you guys can contribute some good insight as well and we can turn out another winning weekend of action. Good luck.

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Just a note - I'll be posting some service plays and selections for the OSU/LSU Championship game in the wildcard thread, so any discussions and plays involving that game can stay in that thread. That way, come Tues morning when the game is over and done with and we're looking through this thread the rest of the week, we won't have to start by skipping pages that involve the BCS game.

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Here's one potential concern for the over. I have several sources for wind speed and only 1 projects 6 days out. Most only do 3. We all know wind speeds 6 days out are fairly unreliable, but here's what it shows:

 

Monday, Jan 07

00h …….12 mph

03h …….8 mph

06h …….2 mph

09h …….3 mph

12h …….12 mph

15h …….22 mph

18h …….20 mph

21h …….17 mph

Tuesday, Jan 08

00h …….10 mph

03h …….6 mph

06h …….1 mph

09h …….8 mph

12h …….8 mph

15h …….6 mph

18h …….25 mph

21h …….26 mph

Wednesday, Jan 09

00h …….31 mph

03h …….30 mph

06h …….26 mph

09h …….24 mph

12h …….20 mph

15h …….16 mph

18h …….14 mph

21h …….7 mph

Thursday, Jan 10

00h …….1 mph

03h …….5 mph

06h …….8 mph

09h …….13 mph

12h …….14 mph

15h …….17 mph

18h …….21 mph

21h …….22 mph

Friday, Jan 11

00h …….23 mph

03h …….25 mph

06h …….24 mph

09h …….25 mph

12h …….28 mph

15h …….23 mph

18h …….18 mph

21h …….15 mph

Saturday, Jan 12

00h …….13 mph

03h …….13 mph

06h …….12 mph

09h …….9 mph

12h …….8 mph

15h …….6 mph

18h …….6 mph

21h …….3 mph

Sunday, Jan 13

00h …….1 mph

03h …….2 mph

06h …….2 mph

09h …….3 mph

12h …….7 mph

15h …….6 mph

18h …….6 mph

21h …….6 mph

 

I've put in bold those that are over 20 mph which would affect the passing game. As you can see, for Saturday things are calming down from a front that passes thru Thursday night - Friday early afternoon. But if that front gets hung up at all, those winds could shift as far as into Saturday afternoon. So that is one concern for an over at this point.

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Here's a look at how favorites have done in the Divisional round since 92:

 

1992 3-1 ATS, 4-0 SU, O: 3, U: 1

1993 2-2 ATS, 3-1 SU, O: 1, U: 3

1994 1-3 ATS, 3-1 SU, O: 4, U: 0

1995 3-1 ATS, 4-0 SU, O: 3, U: 1

1996 2-2 ATS, 2-2 SU, O: 1, U: 3

1997 2-2 ATS, 2-2 SU, O: 3, U: 1 - (Note: 97 there was 1 road fav, which lost SU and the game went over)

1998 2-2 ATS, 3-1 SU, O: 1, U: 3

1999 3-1 ATS, 4-0 SU, O: 2, U: 2

2000 2-2 ATS, 3-1 SU, O: 2, U: 2

2001 3-1 ATS, 3-1 SU, O: 1, U: 2

2002 2-1-1 ATS, 3-1 SU, O: 3, U: 1

2003 3-1 ATS, 4-0 SU, O: 1, U: 3

2004 0-4 ATS, 2-2 SU, O: 2, U: 2

2005 3-1 ATS, 4-0 SU, O: 2, U: 2

2006 2-2 ATS, 2-2 SU, O: 1, U: 3

2007 0-4 ATS, 2-2 SU, O: 2, U: 2

 

Overall: Home Favs have gone 33-29-1 ATS, 48-15 SU (Road Favs have gone 0-1 SU/ATS)

 

32 Overs and 31 Unders 1 Push

 

Now, as you can tell from looking at a few books, the home lines here are inflated slightly just to prevent teasers. That is why several books have higher lines w/ + juice so that you have to use that inflated line on a teaser. Pinny is one example.

 

There are 64 divisional playoff games in my data set, from 92 thru 07. Of those 64, 26 have had lines of >= -7.5 points. So roughly half. So it is somewhat unexpected for all 4 games to have a line of -7.5 or more, and in fact, that has never happened since the 1991 season, and I'm not sure if it has happened at all, because I stopped looking in 1991.

 

Last year we had 1 team, Chi over NO, and they won but did not cover.

The year before we had 2 teams: Sea beat Was, but Pit upset Indy.

 

So we have 26 games w/ lines of -7.5 or higher. In those games, the favorite won and covered 18. The fav lost 4 SU, so their record is: 18-8 ATS, 22-4 SU

 

As you know from earlier, last year the home favs went 0-4 ATS and 2-2 SU (NE upset SD, Ind upset Bal). That's right, just 1 season ago, SD was a 5 point fav at home to NE and Bal was a 4 point fav at home to Ind. How things change in 1 season....

 

At any rate, we've got a historical dilemma not even looking at matchups, just at pointspreads.

 

There shouldn't be such large numbers in all 4 games this weekend. It's never happened (or at least in many, many years). But favs by 7.5 or more points cover at an 18-8 clip (69%). So realistically, at the most, 3 of these teams may cover. Also remember last season we had favs going 0-4 ATS. That only happened one other time in the years I checked, which was in 2004 (the 2003 season). And the following year, favs went 3-1 ATS.

 

Next we need to look at matchups, which is what I'll be doing the next day or two.

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Great stuff Dre - barring a wind issue, I like the over play your system showed (and even if I personally didn't, 19-1 is hard to argue with).

 

Coming into the playoffs, I planned on being on all the favs in this round except Indy (I assumed SD would make it through). Gates may factor into me changing a bit there, but right now looking at taking either all 4 favs or SD plus the other three.

 

Am curious if there's a "third time playing in the season o/u trend" at all becasue while I don't believe there's much to the 'familiarity breeds fav/dog' factor, think there shoudl be somethign to the 'familiarity breeds o/u factor' and guessing under, but don't know for sure.

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Great stuff Dre - barring a wind issue, I like the over play your system showed (and even if I personally didn't, 19-1 is hard to argue with).

 

Coming into the playoffs, I planned on being on all the favs in this round except Indy (I assumed SD would make it through). Gates may factor into me changing a bit there, but right now looking at taking either all 4 favs or SD plus the other three.

 

Am curious if there's a "third time playing in the season o/u trend" at all becasue while I don't believe there's much to the 'familiarity breeds fav/dog' factor, think there shoudl be somethign to the 'familiarity breeds o/u factor' and guessing under, but don't know for sure.

 

 

I just went back and added some info to lookup divisions. Here are the results:

 

Out of 176 Playoff games since 1992, 25 have been between teams in the same division.

 

In those matchups the fav went 13-12 ATS, 17-8 SU. 12 Overs and 13 Unders.

 

Subsetting the Divisional round (most were WC meetings), Favs went 5-2 ATS and 5-2 SU and the avg line was 5.5. 2 Overs and 4 Unders

 

The one thing I didn't do was compare results to regular season results. To see if the same teams were covering or not, or if the games continued to go over or under like the regular season.

 

If someone wants to look through this, I'll post the matchups and you can see if there are any patterns. Again, I'm only looking at divisional matchups, if you want to also check WC matchups, I can post them also:

 

 

Date	Year	Round	Visitor	Visitor Score	Home Team	Home Score	Line		Total Line1/20/2002	2002	DP	Baltimore Ravens	10	Pittsburgh Steelers	27	5.5		321/7/2001	2001	DP	Philadelphia Eagles	10	New York Giants	20	4.5		33.51/16/2000	2000	DP	Tennessee Titans	19	Indianapolis Colts	16	5.5		46.51/4/1998	1998	DP	Denver Broncos	14	Kansas City Chiefs	10	0		411/7/1996	1996	DP	Philadelphia Eagles	11	Dallas Cowboys	30	13.5		45.51/7/1995	1995	DP	Cleveland Browns	9	Pittsburgh Steelers	29	3.5		32.51/10/1993	1993	DP	Philadelphia Eagles	10	Dallas Cowboys	34	6.5		38

 

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Here's what we are seeing for this week:

 

Fav Current Line, My Line

 

GB -9, My Line: -6.6

NE -11.5, My Line: -12.7

Ind -9, My Line: -7.8

Dal -9, My Line: -7.1

 

By my system, none of the values here qualify for actual "plays" (needs more value than what we're seeing), but it leans on anything w/ a value over 1.5. Therefore, it's leaning towards Sea and NYG in those games. I have not made those plays yet, still looking at the games.

 

In my earlier run for my system, I was including a couple outdated (last weeks) numbers for HFA. I have updated that, and even though it's just a minor shift, I feel it should be posted. And since the Vegas lines have shifted slightly, I'll post my numbers vs. current numbers:

 

Current Lines, My Lines

 

GB -8, My Line: GB -7.5

NE -13, My Line: NE -13.6

Ind -8.5, My Line: Ind -8.6

Dal -7.5, My Line: Dal -8.0

 

So just like the first round, I'm seeing virtually no value in any of the current spread lines.

 

The 9s I was using above came from Pinny earlier in the day, however those were inflated w/ + Juice to deter teasing favs down to pickem. True lines were the 8s and 8.5s as listed above. NE did jump today from 11.5 up to 13, so that is one market mover today.

 

Even though there isn't much value in the line itself, there are still matchup plays to be made. Just thought I'd update...

Edited by Steeltown Dre
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In those matchups the fav went 13-12 ATS, 17-8 SU. 12 Overs and 13 Unders.

 

Wow - so without digging in on the details of the games, absolutely no trend on either the spread or the O/U....

 

Regardless of if say if out of the 25 matchups, 10 of them went Over-Over then Under or something, and vise versa...doesn't seem like he familiarity breeds anything but Vegas taking their juice and being happy

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After mulling it over today, I have decided to play a teaser, starting out with a hedge of sorts on my pending parlay (LSU ML). I really can't fathom any of the road teams presenting a serious challenge next week except the Giants. So I am rolling with this one to start out with:

 

Ohio State +10.5

Green Bay -1

New England -6

Indy -2

 

The Giants game in particular looks like a dangerous one. Yeah, the Cowboys should win. But I'm not thrilled with Romo's vacation with Jessie. And not too thrilled with Owens being less than 100%. Definitely not thrilled with the Dallas playcalling over the last month. I really want to believe that they will give the ball to Barber and let him wear the unrested Giants out, then let Romo go arial. But I damn sure wouldn't bet money on it at this point. The Cowboys could win this game 37-10. But will they be able to flick the switch when it is go time? Hell, I'm not even sure they can win the game outright, let alone laying any points.

 

It seems every year there is at least one Cinderella team. And since Eli suddenly looks like he has a clue for two games in a row, I think Dallas had better not look past them. I had ZERO confidence that the Giants could even give Tampa a game. But they held onto the ball, and Eli did enough to win the game. This one just got a whole lot more interesting to me.

 

I really like those other favorite plays in a teaser, but not liking the lines as they are so much. I don't see a lot of value except possibly with the Green Bay line. The Seahawks are going to need to run the ball, and they didn't exactly show me that they are going to be able to do that.

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I've been looking a bit into teasers to see how the %s line up, and I'm not really liking what I'm seeing, at least isolating the divisional round (home team off a bye):

 

Remember what I said earlier:

 

So we have 26 games w/ lines of -7.5 or higher. In those games, the favorite won and covered 18. The fav lost 4 SU, so their record is: 18-8 ATS, 22-4 SU

 

If you teased the favs down by 6 points, instead of losing 8 of the plays, you would only lose 5. So you win 3 games that you would have lost. So you are now hitting at 21-5. However, you have to hit 2 games to win your teaser.

 

As you know, taking games on the -110 gives forces you to win at 52.4%. Taking favs -7.5 or higher hit at 18-8 = 69%, so you are +16.6%.

Taking 2 team teasers at -110 forces you to win each game at 73.1% to win the teaser. Teasing favs -7.5 or higher down by 6 points hit at 21-5 = 81%, so you are +7.9%.

 

Therefore, just assuming all things are equal and each play over -7.5 points in the divisional round has an equal chance to hit, you are better off trying to pick the fav than you are at teasing them down.

 

Please don't think I am trying to say to you that dogs won't win this round or that teasers won't work. This analysis was trying to see if you would have a great "leg up" advantage by doing so. And you won't based on historical results.

 

Now, if you want to look at regular season results, we can. First, looking at the same period, 1991 season onwards, teams that are -7.5 or higher hit at 48% and teasing them 6 points has hit at 68.9%. Both are just over 4% below what you would need at -110 juice to see profit.

 

As you can see from a graphic I keep on my blog, on the regular season, teasing a favorite of -7.5, -8, -8.5 or -9 down by 6 points are some of the best 6 point teasers you can make:

 

http://bp3.blogger.com/_cOrbgqgQDgs/RxifI2...easing+Favs.bmp

 

But this isn't the regular season, and these large favs have historically hit well in the divisional round.

 

Again, this exercise is about strategy and opportunity. Based on this analysis, I won't rule any play out as of now, but you'd have to be crafty w/ your teaser to find some better value than you would in just taking a side.

 

As for the other side, teasing dogs up, typically I see diminishing value in doing so. Taking a dog in this round would give you 8-18 ATS. Teasing the dog 6 points increases that to 16-10. 62%. Which is still lower than what you would want to see (at least 73.1%). So while it may be a better play than the dog SU (on average), it's not profitable (on average).

 

This post is theoretical and not really a matchup post at all, so again, take it for what it is. Not something to sway your opinion, just something for you to be aware of.

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I hear what you are saying Dre'. This is the round where we traditionally see the blowouts. If you are ever going to lay heavy lumber this is the week to do it. But considering the choppy waters I have been surfing over the last 8 weeks I guess I'm just feeling a little gun-shy. My decision to play Jax ML instead of giving up the 2.5 in that parlay is the only thing that saved me from a disasterous weekend and make it possibly a big winner.

 

I could definitely envision the Chargers getting blown out. I could definitely see the Seahawks getting blasted too. Those two look the best to me with the spread where it is right now. As for the Jags, I just can't lay 13 against them. 6 yes. But not 13.

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Since I last posted on here, I made my move on the GB/Sea over. Weather was looking the same as I stated earlier in the afternoon reports, and so I decided to grab the number. Put two large wagers down after buying 0.5 points to get O 39.5 This was late in the afternoon yesterday. Sometime around 6:30pm, lines started rocketing skyward. It moved 1.5 points at Pinny in 20 minutes between 6:30pm and 6:50pm EST.

 

Right now I'm seeing numbers between 41 and 42.

 

This move not only makes me feel better about my play, but also gives me the opportunity, should the weather become very bad, to quickly jump on an under and have it be a true buy back. In other words, I was concerned that if I got O 39.5 yesterday and by Thurs weather was looking bad, the line might be at U 38 or even U 37 by Friday night. If I tried to buy back then, on a line of 37 or 37.5, I would completely be screwed if the total landed on 38 or 39.

 

This gives me confidence.

 

For the weekend so far, that is my largest play, as I have this number (O 39.5) at two outlets. I have a feeling it will be my largest play of the weekend, as right now, I'm not loving any side/total as much as I loved that one. I'll keep looking through numbers today and post anything that jumps out.

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FYI on this over, in case you wanted to play and didn't get in yesterday when I was suggesting buying the 40 to 39.5, my system play would still be in affect through 42.5.

 

Meaning, the system says anything equal to or less than 42.5 and it thinks the over is a good play.

 

Of course, there are things the system does not take into account, such as this is the divisional round of the playoffs, this is in GB, could there be weather, etc.

 

That's why getting the very best number you can get is critical.

 

Also, i will drop you a key statistic from the regular season numbers I have.

 

From 89 thru this season, there have been 1,604 games where the total is between 38 and 42 (including 38 and including 42). That's about 85 games per season, or roughly 5 games per weekend. Which is a significant number.

 

Also consider that out of every single game from 1989 to 2007, the avg total is 40.3 and the avg points scored are 41.2. Both of which fall into the sample I selected. At any rate...

 

The most common number of points scored in games w/ totals between 38 and 42 is 37 points. 37 points are scored 5.67% of the time that a total is between 38 and 42.

 

The second most common number is 41, which is scored 3.87% of the time.

 

Lastly, the average number of points scored in those 1,604 games where the total is between 38 and 42 is 40.8.

 

What does all this mean?

 

It means:

 

#1 - There is higher probability based on numbers that the score will land on 41 than 42 or 40. In fact, it's 1.9 times more likely to land on 41 than 40, and it's 2.8 times more likely to land on 41 than 42.

 

#2 - Buy down to at least 41 (so you will push if it lands on 41).

 

#3 - Depending on how much it will cost you, buy down to 40.5 if possible. The avg points scored in games w/ totals between 38 and 42 is 40.8 points. But again, you really have to look at the cost to make the play, and the amount you are wagering.

 

#4 - Even if you have not made the play, it's not too late to get in on it, but you really need the best number you can get

 

#5 - Just because I think it will go over does not mean it will, and even I may buy back because there's no sure sign that the weather is going to be perfect.

 

However, I will tell you that right now, weather is much improved over what I was fearful about yesterday morning. Right now the front that's moving through Thurs afternoon into Friday afternoon is not due to bring moisture, and the winds are not looking quite as bad. It looks to be windy Thurs and Fri in GB, w/ avg wind speed 16 mph and peaks at 20-21. However, by Sat morning (6am) winds right now are looking to be 13 mph, and by kick at 3pm CST winds should only be around 9 mph, cloudy, temps near 30. This is an improvement I am confident this played into money coming in on the over.

 

Good luck w/ whatever you decide to do.

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Look at the divisional matchups for teams on their 3rd meeting. In each case when I list the regular season games, the 1st game of the year is on the bottom:

 

08 NYG +7.5 @ Dal O/U 47; Result, ??????

07-08 Season

NYG +6.5 @ Dal O/U 44; Result, Dal/Over

NYG +2 vs Dal O/U 48; Result, Dal/Over

 

02 Bal +5.5 @ Pit O/U 32; Result, Pit/Over

01-02 Season

Bal +1 @ Pit O/U 33; Result, Bal/Under

Bal -3 vs Pit O/U 33; Result, Pit/Over

 

01 Phi +4.5 @ NYG O/U 33.5; Result, NYG/Under

00-01 Season

Phi -3 vs NYG O/U 39; Result, NYG/Over

Phi +3.5 @ NYG O/U 34.5; Result, NYG/Under

 

98 Den (Pick) @ KC O/U 41; Result, Den/Under

97-98 Season

Den -9 vs. KC O/U 42.5; Result, Den/Under

Den -4 @ KC O/U 39; Result, KC/Over

 

96 Phi +13.5@ Dal O/U 45.5; Result, Dal/Under

95-96 Season

Phi +15 @ Dal O/U 43.5; Result, Dal/Over

Phi +8.5 vs Dal O/U 40; Result, Phi/Under

 

95 Cle +3.5 @ Pit O/U 32.5; Result, Pit/Over

94-95 Season

Cle -2.5 vs Pit O/U 38; Result, Pit/Under

Cle +3.5 @ Pit O/U 32; Result, Pit/Under

 

93 Phi +6.5 @ Dal O/U 38; Result, Dal/Over

92-93 Season

Phi -6 vs Dal O/U 39; Result, Phi/Under

Phi +3.5 @ Dal O/U 36; Result, Dal/Under

 

 

So, of these 6 times since 92 that teams have met for the 3rd time (div. round only), there have only been 2 times when then the same side covered in both regular season matchups:

 

NYG vs Phi in the 01 playoffs

Pit vs Cle in the 95 playoffs

 

Both times, the side that covered the regular season meeting covered in the postseason meeting. Of interest, is when Cle came to Pit twice, they were +3.5 in the reg season and +3.5 in the postseason. So the line didn't change. When Phi came to NYG in the reg season they were +3.5 and in the postseason they were +4.5, so there was a 1 point move in the line.

 

1 point is exactly the move in the line from the last time the Giants were in Dallas.

 

The other thing to look at is when you had two under results in the regular season, (happened twice) the playoff game went over even though the total was about the same as in the regular season.

 

There hasn't been two overs, so we aren't sure what will happen.

 

Based on history alone, this analysis shows that there is a chance that Dal and possibly the Under hit this Sunday. It shows Dal is not a bad bet because of "covering 3 times in 1 year".

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Thanks rat. I wasn't directing the teaser post to you or anyone in particular. I was typing it for about 45 minutes and posted it once I was done, which was 2 mins after you posted, so I didn't even see that you took one. If I played a teaser, I'd be teasing a fav down too... which is exactly what Pinny is trying to avoid by keeping all 3 games (except the pats) at -9 and just adjusting juice. That way, a 6 point teaser brings it down to 3 and you can't get inside a FG. This tells me that they think at least 1 of the 3 (Ind/Dal/GB) is going to be a FG game...

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Thanks rat. I wasn't directing the teaser post to you or anyone in particular. I was typing it for about 45 minutes and posted it once I was done, which was 2 mins after you posted, so I didn't even see that you took one. If I played a teaser, I'd be teasing a fav down too... which is exactly what Pinny is trying to avoid by keeping all 3 games (except the pats) at -9 and just adjusting juice. That way, a 6 point teaser brings it down to 3 and you can't get inside a FG. This tells me that they think at least 1 of the 3 (Ind/Dal/GB) is going to be a FG game...

I wouldn't mind even if you were directing it at me. I am just here taking in your knowledge, whether it contradicts what I think or not. As always it is my choice what to do with the information you provide. And in general there is just no doubt that playing teasers and parlays are not the way to go, so advising against any teaser is pretty safe ground I would say. Keep it coming!

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Dre or Ratt, what do you guys think about 2 team 9 point teasers? (145 juice) It's a lot of juice but seems made for these type of lines.

 

It's a sucker play in this round (unless it wins and a 6 pointer would lose). I mean, I consider it a sucker bet, but there's always a chance you need those 3 extra points to win, so it could help short term, but playing them in the postseason as go to plays in the long run will lose you money. Here's why:

 

You have to know that the divisional round is unlike the regular season. In the regular season, you know that the favs win ATS at 49% and on average they win the game by 5.6 points.

 

In the divisional round, since 92, favs win ATS at 52.4% (the number you would break even at standard -110 juice) and on avg win the game by 10.6 points.

 

Now, for this analysis all we have to look at those games where the fav is favored by -7.5 or more, because that's the situation we are in w/ all 4 games. However, I'll look at this ignoring that fact and then applying it later:

 

64 games total in the sample, from 92-07. 4 games a season in the div round.

1. No tease, just taking the fav: 33-30-1 ATS (52.4%)

 

 

To break even on a -110 play, you have to hit 52.4%. Here we are 0% better, just breaking even

 

2. Teasing 6 points: 50-14 ATS (78%)

 

 

To break even on a 6 point teaser -110 juice you have to hit 72.4%. 78-72.4 is 5.6% better so we're making money

 

3. Teasing 6 points: 52-12 ATS (81%)

 

 

To break even on a 9 point -145 juice teaser you have to hit 77%. 81-77 is 4% better, making money, but not hitting as high as a 6 point teaser.

 

 

Favored by -7.5 or more, 26 games total in the sample, from 92-07

1. No tease, just taking the fav: 18-8 ATS (69.2%)

 

 

To break even on a -110 play, you have to hit 52.4%. Here we are 16.8% better, doing very well and making money

 

2. Teasing 6 points: 21-4-1 ATS (81%) - push counts as a loss

 

 

To break even on a 6 point teaser -110 juice you have to hit 72.4%. 81-72.4 is 8.6% better so we're making money, but not as much as taking these straight

 

3. Teasing 6 points: 22-4 ATS (84.6%)

 

 

To break even on a 9 point -145 juice teaser you have to hit 77%. 84.6-77 is 7.6% better, making money, but not hitting as high as straight or 6 point teasers.

 

 

The bottom line is though the sample is smaller, you have to look at these games separately from the regular season. And historically speaking, w/ the lines as they are, it's best to try to take straight bets on favs vs. teasing them down. If you want to tease, 6 point teasers will allow you to lose more and still make money than 9 point teasers.

 

But

 

Some people don't look at it like that, but I encourage you to do so. Out of the 26 games, only 1 game (a push at that) would have become a winner on a 9 point teaser that would not have won on a 6 point teaser. The numbers just are not there to support it. However, that's not saying it couldn't happen this weekend. But I would shop around if you can, and find another shop than Pinny if you want to tease your favs down.

 

If Pinny wanted your money on teasers, they would play the line straight, and not inflate them to +9. They obviously don't want your money on teasers. To me this says a couple things. #1, they think it's possible that a game ends on 3 and will force you to not win your teaser, so they like that. #2, they think we may have some games where several of the favs would cover teased numbers, and don't want to pay out those tickets, so they want you taking the money from other outlets.

 

If the lines were different, I'd encourage more teasers. For instance, in this round when the fav is favored by 7 or less, they have gone 15-22 ATS (41%).

 

But when the fav is teased by 6 points, they have gone 28-9 ATS (76%). Which is over the 72.4% to break even on a -110, 2 team teaser.

 

So lower lines this round really would pay off, and smaller favs do much worse than large favs.

 

A couple notes, as I said before, this is the only time we've seen 4 huge favs, so there is a chance that all 4 games are not going to wind up like the average, because usually it's 1 or maybe 2 a year that are high div favs.

 

Also, I really hate to give people advice that loses them money, so I don't want to scare you off of any bet you want to play based on historical numbers. If it was a specific side you liked and I felt strongly on the other side, that's a situation where I might want to scare you. But 1 weekend out of the year (div round) and 4 games to discuss, if one of these plays loses and "historically" it was the right play in terms of spread/win %, then I would feel bad if you lost on my account. Please play what you like, and hopefully come Monday we'll all be up.

Edited by Steeltown Dre
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Dre or Ratt, what do you guys think about 2 team 9 point teasers? (145 juice) It's a lot of juice but seems made for these type of lines.

I am thinking more along the lines of what Dre is saying. -145 is just brutal on that bet. And to make anything you have to bet a big chunk of change. Look at the value for comparative bets. To win $100 on that 9 pointer, you have to put up $145. To win $100 on the parlay, you only have to risk $40. And as Dre has already pointed out, this is a week where the teaser points usually won't save you if you are wrong. That being the case, especially if I am playing 2 games I would rather play it this way. Go ahead and bet that $145 you would have bet on the teaser on a parlay. Now you are set up to win $360.

 

I am a hedger. Right or wrong, that is usually how I operate. So if I am right with the first game of the parlay, I would then hedge part of my stake on the other team if I had any doubts at all. This system is at its best when you make your play early in the week, and the line for the underdog gets pushed up a point or two by game time of the second game of your parlay. So at that point you might actually be hedging your original bet, but leave yourself a gap for "hitting the middle". Doesn't always work out like that, but that is what I like to do. If you want, you can hedge your entire $145 wager so that you come out even at the very worst. At best, the underdog line has been pushed up a point, you hit a middle or push your hedge bet and all is well.

 

And they lived happily ever after.

 

To me that is a far better "safe" betting style than laying that heavy vig. But that is just the way I look at it. As with Dre, I am certainly not going to tell someone not to make a play that they like.

 

But hoping for middles and hedging may not be a good idea this week, as we have already discussed. Very good chance of some blowouts this weekend.

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:D

Nice! I thought that was a decent bet so I tailed you. Added it to the Lakers ML for a tidy little parlay. Looks like $$$!

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