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Divisional Weekend Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread


Steeltown Dre
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Thanks for the updates Randall. Locally are you seeing anything different than I posted in terms of gametime weather for tomorrow?

 

In terms of the NE line, I got my over in at 47 yesterday afternoon for a decent juice so I was pleased w/ that. I'm seeing more 50s popping up now. I'm not riding this on incredibly hard, however.

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Anytime bro. This hockey has been great . I love the first period unders because its short and sweet. 2 stingy teams facing off with good goalies have stayed under 1.5 more often then they havent. St Louis is as stingy as they come. Detroit is really the hardest to score against but I stay away from them in the first period because they are explosive on O. I already have 2 I like for tonight. Ill post them soon. I just want to run some numbers. 2nd period overs between high offense teams are almost unfair they come in so often. Problem is and reason I stay away is the vigs are extremely high. Sometimes as high as -250. You are gonna bet those small in fear of vig and the one you lose will wipe out the 2-3 you win

 

 

 

Whomp - nice calls on the hockey- I think I may jump on board for some Fri night action...........

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Whomp - nice calls on the hockey- I think I may jump on board for some Fri night action...........

 

 

I tailed you and won in college football a few times this year. I hope I can return the favor

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Got pretty wrapped up in college hoops this week, but now it's time for some football :D

 

So far, I really like IND as a play. Given SD's bizarre inability to put up points in the first half (really wish I'd researched it, apparently it's been something of a trend for them), might even make an IND 1st half play.

 

There is so much buzz about JAX that I may lay the chalk with NE. Still debating.

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Whomp - nice calls on the hockey- I think I may jump on board for some Fri night action...........

 

+1, Fridays aren't much for college hoops and am not an NBA guy. Let us know if you have anything good Whomp!

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In the divisional round w/ totals between (and including) 45 to 48, the Under is 8-2 Since 1992.

 

Of all the trends I've seen, this one seems to be strongest. It's one reason I've jumped on the NYG/DAL U 46.5. I believe this one may turn into an old school NFC East January struggle. The public perception seems to be Eli vs. Romo in a shootout. I just don't see it. Eli will return to his normal self and kill a NYG drive or two by himself. Also, the Giants should start slowing down (emotionally and physically) after 2 straight brawls. The Giants front should get good pressure on Romo all day and knock him around a bit. Considering T.O. is less than 100% (possibly MUCH less than 100%) drives the total down further.

 

Also, I'm back on the Pats. 13 is a huge number, but considering the Pats are well rested, at home in good weather I can see them exploding. Especially against a young QB. The JAX secondary looked absolutely pathetic vs. the Steelers in the second half last week and I just don't see how they can slow down the Pats. I'm banking on a blowout here.

 

Dre, as always, thanks for the posts. Your research and insight is both appreciated and a really good read (although it does make my head spin at times...). Good luck guys.

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Yeah, with the weather looking to be a non-factor I think the Pats are looking better and better to me.

 

Here are my main plays, some are considerably juiced by those hockey plays I parlayed with them.

 

GB-8

Indy -9

 

NE-13

Indy-9

 

GB-

NE-

Indy-

 

GB-

NE-

Indy-9

 

GB-

Indy-

 

As you can see, I am strongest on Indy. I used those hockey games to juice up those ML picks. That should make my weekend a little more stress free having those "safety net" plays in action. I also have a Jax ML parlay, but I would rather not discuss the details of that, 'cuz I don't even want to allow myself to dream it.

 

Probably won't be playing the Dallas game unless I am flush with cash from the first 3 games and feeling cocky.

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Thanks for the updates Randall. Locally are you seeing anything different than I posted in terms of gametime weather for tomorrow?

 

In terms of the NE line, I got my over in at 47 yesterday afternoon for a decent juice so I was pleased w/ that. I'm seeing more 50s popping up now. I'm not riding this on incredibly hard, however.

 

 

I'm north of Green Bay but the weather is about the same. Tomorrow some snow in the afternoon, mostly south of Green Bay. Unless a front blows up overnight it looks like what you posted. Cold isn't coming in until next week.

 

Reminds me of Seattle mild winter weather except it is about 10 degrees colder. Should be good for both teams.

Edited by Randall
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Thanks for the input to all. This thread is very valuable and good info here. Here's another long winded analysis:

 

A look at the Jags and their lack of come from behind ability:

 

 

Ignoring week 17 for all:

 

The Jags

 

1st Quarter:

 

The Jags have led after the 1st Q in 9 games this year, and they went on to win 8 of them, covering in all 8 = 8-1 ATS.

The one exception was week 1 to Ten

 

Halftime:

 

The Jags have led at the half in 11 games this year, and they went on to win and cover 10 of the 11 = 10-1 ATS.

Again, the only exception was week 1 to Ten. So after week 1, if they had the lead at the half, they won the game and covered.

 

The Jags have been behind at the half in 4 games this year, and they won only 1, and covered only 1 = 1-3 ATS.

In these games, they were beind at the half by an avg of 10.5 points, and ended up losing by an avg of 9 points.

Lost ATS to Atl, Ind, NO and covered once vs Ind week 16

 

3rd Quarter:

 

The Jags have led after the 3rd Q in 9 games this year, and won and covered all 9 games = 9-0 ATS

 

The Jags have been behind after the 3rd Q in 6 games this year and won only 2 and covered in only 2 = 2-4 ATS

In these games, they were behind after the third by an avg of 9 points and ended up losing by an avg of 6 points

The list includes Ten, Atl, Ind twice, TB and NO. 2 covers came against TB and Ind, 2 wins came against Atl and TB

 

_______________

 

Analysis:

 

The Jags have started strong in their games this season, taking the lead into the locker room in 11 of their 15 games (I ignored their 16th game). That's a high %, and on avg they were winning by an avg score of 14.5 to 5.5 (margin=9 points). So when they are good, they are good early and they even are good late, outscoring those opponents (who they led by 9 points at the half) by another 5 points in the 2nd half, to win by an avg of 14 points.

 

But when they get off to a slow start, particularly by halftime, they have been bad. They have had 4 games where they were down at the half, and in only one of these games, the game to Ind when Ind had starters resting/injured, was Jac able to come back to cover a spread.

 

Looking at the play of Garrard, of course his number have been impressive, but I've been trying to find out what happens to him when his team is down and he's forced to get them back into the game.

 

Looking at his splits, it's hard to find many faults. He actually has much better numbers when Jac is behind than when they are ahead. Which doesn't really translate to me very well, perhaps you can help me there, but from the game results, if they are losing at the half, they rarely have come back to outscore their opponent in the 2nd half.

 

_______________

 

Looking at the Patriots (I won't bother listing how many games they won in each situation, they won them all obviously):

 

1st Quarter:

 

The Pats have led after the 1st Q in 12 games this year, and went 9-3 ATS

In these games they were ahead by an avg of 9 points after the 1st and won by an avg of 23 points

However, the since TG, they didn't do as well as we all know, and that's where the 3 losses come from:

The 3 losses, however, came on spreads of 21.5 or higher

Up to Phi by 7 after the 1st, won by 3; Up to NYJ by 7 after the 1st, won by 10; Up to Mia by 7 after the 1st, won by 21

 

The Pats were behind after the 1st Q in 4 games this year, and went 1-4 ATS

Losing by 3 to Ind after the 1st, won by 4; Losing to Bal by 4 at the half, won by 3; Losing to NYG by 4 at the half, won by 3

 

Halftime:

 

The Pats have led at halftime in 13 games this year, and went 10-3 ATS

The 3 losses were again to Phi, NYJ and Mia

 

The Pats were behind or tied (to Bal) at the half in 3 games this year, and lost all 3 ATS = 0-3 ATS

Same 3 teams, Ind, Bal and NYG

 

3rd Quarter:

 

The Pats have led after the 3rd in 12 games this year and went 10-2 ATS

Two losses were NYJ and Mia, and spreads were 21.5 and 22 points

 

The Pats were behind or tied (to Bal) after the third in 4 games this year, and lost all 4 ATS = 0-4 ATS

 

 

______________

 

Analysis:

 

Obviously a tale of two seasons from a sports betting perspective. You have BC and AC, Before Colts, After Colts. Pats went 8-0 ATS before the Colts, covering 16/16.5 on 4 different occasions (that was the highest line they had).

 

Then you had the Colts game where they were down by 6 at the half, and outscored Indy by 10 in the 2nd half but didn't cover. They followed by easily covering a 15.5 point line to Buf, winning by 46 points. At that point, Vegas had enough, and posted numbers in the 20s for 4 of their 5 next games, with the exception being Pit. They lost ATS every single game in the 20s, covering only Pit but that was when the media/pub was on Pit. And they finished by giving 13 to NYG and losing ATS.

 

Prior to the Colts Game, NE led at the half on avg by 18 points, 23-5. And they outscored their opponents in the 2nd half 19-12, which includes about 7 points their opponents scored in the 4th when NE let off the gas. So they got big halftime leads, hardly allowed any points in the 1st half, and then outscored the other team by a TD in the 2nd half, to win their games on avg 42-17.

 

After the Colts, removing the Bills game from the equation, NE led at the half on avg by only 4 points, 17-12. And they outscored their opponents in the 2nd half 12-7. Winning the game on avg 29-20.

 

Their opponents scored a TD more than they did BC in the 1st half, and NE scored a TD less than they did BC in the 1st half. The Pats also scored less in the 2nd half but held their opponents to fewer points as well.

 

 

_____________

 

Overall Summary:

 

The Jags have only lost 4 games this year (again, I ignore week 17) but two of the 4 losses were by 17 or more points (NO by 17, Ind by 22). Granted, those were in Week 7 and 9. But with the exception of the week 13 game against Ind where Ind was full of injuries and Jac was down by 14 at the half and outscored Ind by 11 in the 2nd half (still lost but covered), I have not seen Jac do much that impressed me in terms of coming back after the half.

 

1-3 ATS when down at the half, Lost 3 of the 4 (and please don't bring up the Week 2 game w/ ATL where they came back in the 4th to win but not cover...anytime you have to look all the way to week 2 and this season's Falcons as your "key comeback victory", you have problems)

 

I'm not saying they can't come back against the Pats, I just think this team seems better suited and prefers to get some points up in the first half. If they are up at the half, they do well in the 2nd half. But if not, they most likely will not come back.

 

I think if you like the Jags, you need to be on the 1st half. You can have game and half bets going, that's fine too. But this setup is good for a 1st half in my opinion. I see + juice at Jags +7.5 first half, see if you can get 8.

 

As for my play on this game, I really am not comfortable joining in w/ the public and taking the dog, but I'm also not comfortable laying the 13. I lean to NE as of right now, simply because the on-air love fest that has arisen for Jacksonville.

 

Back 2 years ago, remember how Indy went 14-2 and everyone had them penned to win the SB. On the other side sat a Pittsburgh Steelers team who had to win 4 in a row just to make the playoffs, then went to Cin and upset them in the WC? No one thought Pittsburgh stood a chance in Indy. They hung a +8.5 on the Steelers which was bet up to +10, but all week long the media talked about the dominant Colts at home. Then the Steelers pulled the outright upset.

 

It's completely reversed this time. You have a red hot Jac team and a 16-0 NE team, but everyone is talking about how NE can be beaten, and Jac can do it, and NE better not choke.

 

That to me sets up nicely for a NE cover. If NE is up by at least 10 at the half, I figure w/ halftime adjustments, NE can and should win by 13+. If this game is close at the half, I still think NE should win, but may not get the cover. That's why those on Jac should take some on the 1st half, and those on NE might as well lay the number and pray for a cover. This is probably my least favorite game of the weekend to pick a side on.

Edited by Steeltown Dre
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What do you guys think of some of these props my office is offering ?

 

H-Tom Brady Passing Yards in Playoffs

Sat 1/12 7:55PM (EST)

 

9055 Tom Brady Passing Yards in Playoffs- 874 and Under +100

9056 Tom Brady Passing Yards in Playoffs- 875- 949 +175

9057 Tom Brady Passing Yards in Playoffs- 950 and Over +150

 

 

 

 

I-Randy Moss total TD Receptions in Playoffs

Sat 1/12 7:55PM (EST)

 

9057 Over 4.5 TD Receptions -110

9058 Under 4.5 TD Receptions -120

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Also, Budin has a 50 dime teaser this weekend:

 

http://www.sportsinfo.com/hdmain/content.a...andicapperId=62

 

I have not seen it up yet, but when I do I'll post it, or if Gdawg or someone sees it first, go ahead and post it.

I heard Lang on the radio yammering on about Jacksonville, so I guess that is where his $$ is. Or more correct, where his clients $$ will be going. Man that guy has led some people into the dumpster this year. After that horrible BCS championship pick of his Monday I can't believe anybody is using his picks as anything more than fade material.

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I heard Lang on the radio yammering on about Jacksonville, so I guess that is where his $$ is. Or more correct, where his clients $$ will be going. Man that guy has led some people into the dumpster this year. After that horrible BCS championship pick of his Monday I can't believe anybody is using his picks as anything more than fade material.

 

The guy was downright disgusting in November. He lost a heap. I don't care what you do or if you are a streaky gambler or not, his pick record would make a monkey puke. I always stayed away from his plays, and shuddered if he was on any of mine. After watching him real close for a month or so, I think it's safe to say you won't find a more famous "Terrible" handicapper on Earth. Anyone who actually pays for his picks should kill themselves now.

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The guy was downright disgusting in November. He lost a heap. I don't care what you do or if you are a streaky gambler or not, his pick record would make a monkey puke. I always stayed away from his plays, and shuddered if he was on any of mine. After watching him real close for a month or so, I think it's safe to say you won't find a more famous "Terrible" handicapper on Earth. Anyone who actually pays for his picks should kill themselves now.

Agreed. P.T. Barnum was right.

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St Louis/ Columbus under 1.5 first period is the Hockey play I have the best feel for tonight. It was actually a tough call because I liked 3 first period unders tonight but chances of all 3 hitting arent great so I went with the strongest . For the record the other 2 are Van/ Pheonix and Calgary/ Islanders.

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St Louis/ Columbus under 1.5 first period is the Hockey play I have the best feel for tonight. It was actually a tough call because I liked 3 first period unders tonight but chances of all 3 hitting arent great so I went with the strongest . For the record the other 2 are Van/ Pheonix and Calgary/ Islanders.

 

 

....................heading over to my book for my virgin wager on that wacky Canadian sport played by goofy mullet-headed white dudes

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Dre as we discussed. I got in at 42.5 this morning o/U GB/Sea..My brother asked me to put him in and its 43 now

 

I think this is due to Dr. Bob who released his plays around 1pm today, and even though he has not been all that in the NFL, many people subscribe:

 

Dr Bob

 

NFL Best Bet Sides

 

3 Star Selection

GREEN BAY (-7.5) 33 Seattle 14

12-Jan-08 01:30 PM Pacific Time

Seattle played well last week in beating Washington 35-14, but two long interception returns for touchdowns broke open a close game and the Seahawks are still barely better than an average team overall. Seattle is just 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively with quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and WR Deion Branch on the field (Hasselbeck struggled in the 4-plus games without Branch) and the Seahawks? defense is just 0.1 yppl better than average even after excluding their week 17 game against the Falcons when their backups played a lot of snaps. Seattle looks like a pretty good team because they out-gained their foes 5.4 yppl to 4.9 yppl, but they faced a very easy schedule of teams. Green Bay has a mediocre defense (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defense) but the Packers are very good offensively now that they?ve discovered running back Ryan Grant. Grant became the featured back in week 8 and turned an ineffective rushing attack into one of the league?s best, gaining 956 yards at a very impressive 5.1 ypr. Veteran quarterback Brett Favre had one of his best years ever and averaged 7.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback) from week 3 on, which is when big play receiver Greg Jennings joined the lineup (he missed the first two games of the season). The Packers? offense rates at 1.3 yppl better than average with their current lineup and they?ll dominate a mediocre Seattle defense.

Having a week off to get healthy, regenerate, and prepare is a huge advantage this time of year and home teams with a bye have won exactly 50% of the time by 10 points or more since 1980. The home field advantage in this round of playoffs is 5 ? points and the oddsmakers have pretty much figured that out too, which is why you might think that the lines on this week?s games look higher than you?d expect. In this case the line is not high enough, as my math model favors Green Bay by 11 ? points. In addition to the line value the Packers apply to a 35-6-1 ATS subset of a 68-26-2 ATS playoff situation. I?ll take Green Bay in a 3-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less, for 4-Stars at -7 or less, and for 2-Stars at -10 ? or -11 points.

 

 

 

NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) 33 Jacksonville 17

12-Jan-08 05:00 PM Pacific Time

A lot of pundits give Jacksonville a good shot at an upset in this game, but the Jaguars aren?t good enough defensively to hang with the Patriots. Jacksonville is equipped offensively to have decent success in this game, but I just don?t see them stopping New England?s offense.

Jacksonville should be able to run the ball with success, as the Jaguars averaged 4.8 ypr while the Patriots have allowed 4.4 ypr this season, and efficient quarterback David Garrard (6.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback) should have decent success throwing against a Patriots? pass defense that is 0.7 yppp better than average. Garrard also doesn?t make many mistakes, throwing just 5 interceptions all season (although he was picked twice last week in Pittsburgh), so Jacksonville does have an advantage over New England?s defense.

 

The Jaguars, however, aren?t good enough defensively to stop the Patriots. The Jags are only 0.1 ypr better than average defending the run (4.0 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.1 ypr against an average team ? not including their week 17 game against Houston when they rested some starters) and they are just 0.4 yppp better than average against the pass (since pass rushing DE Paul Spicer joined the starting unit permanently in week 6). Tom Brady had the best season of any quarterback in history and he averaged 7.8 yppp this season (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB) while throwing just 8 interceptions against 50 touchdown passes. Teams that gave the Patriots problems were teams that could generate a pass rush without blitzing too much and only Spicer is a good pass rusher among the defensive linemen (8.5 sacks). If the Jaguars choose to blitz to get pressure on Brady they take a risk that they?ll get burned, as Brady is quick to respond to blitzes and usually finds the open receiver quickly. The Patriots probably won?t get to their 37 points per game average, but they should get pretty close to that.

 

My math model only favors New England by 9 points in this game, but the Patriots have consistently out-played the math projections this season and have a scoring margin that is 6 points more than their stats would predict. Jacksonville out-played their stats by 1 point this season, so adding 5 points to the math model projection of a 9 point margin would give you New England by 14 points, which is about what the pointspread is. This game is very tough to call, but giving Bill Belichick and this staff an extra week to prepare will make the Patriots even tougher to compete with and Tom Brady is 38-16-3 ATS in his career at home when not favored by 20 points or more, including 5-0 ATS this season and 4-1-1 ATS in the playoffs). I?ll lean slightly with New England and I have no opinion on the total.

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St Louis/ Columbus under 1.5 first period is the Hockey play I have the best feel for tonight. It was actually a tough call because I liked 3 first period unders tonight but chances of all 3 hitting arent great so I went with the strongest . For the record the other 2 are Van/ Pheonix and Calgary/ Islanders.

 

 

Sorry fellas. The only one I was right on I didnt really push

Edited by whomper
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I heard part of the Mike Tirico show yesterday and he said to take all of the Dogs this weekend. :D

 

If I had to hazard a guess though, I would say he probably won't be laying any of his own money, he was just giving his opinion. There is a big difference between having an opinion, and putting your $$ on the line.

 

It is easy for me to say that the Jags should cover the 13 point spread, but when it comes crunch time and I have to put my money where my mouth is I just can't bet against the Pats, even at -13.

 

Whomp, don't worry about it. You gave some good picks this week, had one bad night. I didn't play anything. I'm set up for the weekend and ready for some playoff football!!!

 

Best of luck to everyone. Good thread this week. Dre - spectacular as always!

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Thanks for the updates Randall. Locally are you seeing anything different than I posted in terms of gametime weather for tomorrow?

 

In terms of the NE line, I got my over in at 47 yesterday afternoon for a decent juice so I was pleased w/ that. I'm seeing more 50s popping up now. I'm not riding this on incredibly hard, however.

 

 

Got about 2". Looks good for today, 3-4 MPH breezes, temps in the low 30's. S. Wisconsin is supposed to get some snow but GB should just be cloudy.

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