dmarc117 Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 I'm becoming more concerned about the economy as the weeks drag on, and not because of the news. Part of my job is running a private fleet of trucks that deliver to our customers. We try to find 3rd party freight to get our trucks back to our facility to reload. That has been a relative piece of cake until the last couple of months. It has been amazing to see how that business has dried up. Where there were once dozens or hundreds of truckloads posted on websites to leave LA or Dallas, there are only a handful now. This is particularly odd considering many retail businesses use Sept-Oct to stock local shelves for the holiday shopping season. It's hard to explain why an economy that is slowing down 1-2% seems to be dying from a shipping perspective. It can't be a good sign that freight has slowed down as much as it has. My best friend is a mobile mechanic and has always been extremely busy (12-15 hrs a day) doing repairs and PMs on industrial and agricultural equipment. His schedule has slowed and people are not paying on time. This is a good "real life" indicator to me and it's not a good sign. I think my buddy will be OK, he and his wife also drive school buses for benefits and a regular paycheck to help cash flow. It looks like cinch the belt time for a lot of folks and probably should be for all of us. A note on food. Mrs. Neutron came home from the grocery store on Monday and was fretting because she spent an extra $100 and didn't get much more than she normally does. It's nice to see fuel dropping, but I have no doubt that is a short term deal. Food is more of a concern to me with a big family to feed. I hate to resort to buying less quality food. My kids do like ramen. i think the reason for the shipping declines is due to JIT. these stores know that this xmas is going to be bad. so they arent ordering the same amount of stuff. keep the inventories lean which may mean stuff selling out faster too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 i think the reason for the shipping declines is due to JIT. these stores know that this xmas is going to be bad. so they arent ordering the same amount of stuff. keep the inventories lean which may mean stuff selling out faster too. there is also the possibility that firms can't get short-term financing to pay to get the goods shipped Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 (edited) And for what it's worth, at this very moment I am more pessimistic right now about what is going to happen to our economy than I have ever been in my lifetime (and I would not have said this when I woke up this morning). My reasoning is as follows: --credit markets are starting to look bad again (as though we are going back into the late September crisis mode) --I am losing confidence that the Fed has a handle on things --weekly new unemployment claims are HUGH --pretty much all new economic news that is coming out is bad You guys aren't going to like this, but we need a VERY large fiscal stimulus package coming out of Washington soon. (budget deficit be damned for the moment) Edited November 20, 2008 by wiegie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 (edited) And for what it's worth, at this very moment I am more pessimistic right now about what is going to happen to our economy than I have ever been in my lifetime (and I would not have said this when I woke up this morning). My reasoning is as follows: --credit markets are starting to look bad again (as though we are going back into the late September crisis mode) --I am losing confidence that the Fed has a handle on things --weekly new unemployment claims are HUGH --pretty much all new economic news that is coming out is bad You guys aren't going to like this, but we need a VERY large fiscal stimulus package coming out of Washington soon. (budget deficit be damned for the moment) that is my worry. these people that are losing jobs are not getting any new jobs. just in the banking industry, tens of thousands of jobs are lost. and lost for a long time. these banks are not expanding, they are contracting. all industries are contracting. there are no jobs for those looking. and with the credit crisis, we havent seen the worse yet. these cds are massive. the banks dont even know what they have. im thinking the usg will put off the mark to market stuff again, they have to. many of these banks would be insolvent. Edited November 20, 2008 by dmarc117 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Trick Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 The last time we had a "Thursday the 28th" was back in August. My favorite day of the year, that 28th of August. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 My favorite day of the year, that 28th of August. aka your birthday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Neutron Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 i think the reason for the shipping declines is due to JIT. these stores know that this xmas is going to be bad. so they arent ordering the same amount of stuff. keep the inventories lean which may mean stuff selling out faster too. Maybe - I can see that on the holiday retail side. What concerns me more is the regular commodity freight that is disappearing. We haul a lot of dog food and bottled water out of the LA area and beer out of Dallas - that stuff drying up is what scares me. And for what it's worth, at this very moment I am more pessimistic right now about what is going to happen to our economy than I have ever been in my lifetime (and I would not have said this when I woke up this morning). My reasoning is as follows: --credit markets are starting to look bad again (as though we are going back into the late September crisis mode) --I am losing confidence that the Fed has a handle on things --weekly new unemployment claims are HUGH --pretty much all new economic news that is coming out is bad You guys aren't going to like this, but we need a VERY large fiscal stimulus package coming out of Washington soon. (budget deficit be damned for the moment) I know what you mean. I've tried to look at the bright side of things along the way, but there are very few positive indicators coming in now. Utah's economy is starting to feel the pinch and we've been largely immune to this point. Housing values have started to drop, new housing is slowing down and jobless rate ticked up - all new locally. I hate to think depression, but I don't think that's outside the realm of possibilities at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Maybe - I can see that on the holiday retail side. What concerns me more is the regular commodity freight that is disappearing. We haul a lot of dog food and bottled water out of the LA area and beer out of Dallas - that stuff drying up is what scares me. yep...look at a chart of the bdi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 (edited) How is the economy impacting me? On one hand, I may have just added a new 'client' (sorta) that would be about 500x larger (literally) than my current largest client. They told me today that they can close before the end of the year. If this gets done, I may not be around here as much as I am now. On the other hand, while my business is stable and growing, it's not immune from difficulties elsewhere, and as such, losses in revenue (whether via a bad investment or loss of an investor) are never a good thing. I'm working (literally) 50% more hours than I did last year and will make 30-50% less money than I did last year. Edited November 20, 2008 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 yep...look at a chart of the bdi wurd (bdi = baltic dry index in case other people care) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 I may have just added a new 'client' (sorta) that would be about 500x larger (literally) than my current largest client. They told me today that they can close before the end of the year. If this gets done, I may not be around here as much as I am now. Let me be the first to wish you good luck in landing the client. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Let me be the first to wish you good luck in landing the client. +1111111 those kinda clients are probably a little bit hard to find these days...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Death spiral? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtomicCEO Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 His schedule has slowed and people are not paying on time. This is a good "real life" indicator to me and it's not a good sign. Yeah, my company is getting slow-payed a lot, and I think we are doing the same. Plus we have customers who are giving my department (installations) a harder time because they want to have a reason not to pay us. "This install sucked, this isn't what I wanted, this isn't working"... and they try to escape the contract they signed. You guys aren't going to like this, but we need a VERY large fiscal stimulus package coming out of Washington soon. (budget deficit be damned for the moment) I have no problem with the Feds saving the economy... but it shouldn't be in the form of enabling more bad business. There should be a TON of strings attached for the companies that managed themselves soooo poorly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
driveby Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Hasn't much yet. We changed our cell phone contract and cut our monthly bill in half. Postponed a few purchases in order to pay off the credit card balances incurred during our last vacation trip. Decided to forgo Christmas presents for eachother this year, probably more a function of just not being too enthused about Christmas more than strictly cutting back. Realized that it's time to stop complaining about the low pay and difficult (at times) working conditions that come with being in education and start being thankful that short of commiting a felony, we have almost no chance of being laid off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
driveby Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Az, how about this? Wall Street's pain is rippling through U.S. small businesses, as bankers who once pulled in million-dollar bonuses lose their jobs and cut back spending on everything from parties to home improvements. Among those hit is Felice Pomeranz, a Boston-based harpist who has weathered two major recessions in 26 years and has never seen times so tough. "This is the worst. It's terrible," said Pomeranz, a performer who also books other musicians to perform at corporate events. "Musicians are dying to work." Bookings for corporate events by her company, Gilded Harps, are down as much as 70 percent from a year ago, with work for financial firms practically nonexistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 I sell golf equipment. People aren't buying golf equipment. I've tried to wait this out, but after the coming holiday "rush", I'm going to be looking for a job that isn't commission based. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riffraff Posted December 6, 2008 Share Posted December 6, 2008 Just said screw it and took a year off. Accepted a position today, so I guess it will only be an 11 month vacation. 2008 has been a good year (minus the investment crashes). I probably should have written a fantasy football book... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted December 6, 2008 Share Posted December 6, 2008 Accepted a position today, so I guess it will only be an 11 month vacation. 2008 has been a good year (minus the investment crashes). I probably should have written a fantasy football book... Who hasn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbimm Posted December 6, 2008 Share Posted December 6, 2008 The crappy economy is not hurting me at all. The combination of the big 3 failing as well as the economy also failing actually works in my favor. If you can't afford a new car I can fix your old one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 6, 2008 Share Posted December 6, 2008 Just found out today that my dad was "let go" from the Orthopedic clinic that he worked at for 16 years, as the administrator, on Monday. Total shock... nobody in my family saw this coming. My wife and I will probably find out in the next 30 days whether we're going to have to forclose on our house or not. Other than that, everything is pretty normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted December 6, 2008 Share Posted December 6, 2008 Just found out today that my dad was "let go" from the Orthopedic clinic that he worked at for 16 years, as the administrator, on Monday. Total shock... nobody in my family saw this coming. My wife and I will probably find out in the next 30 days whether we're going to have to forclose on our house or not. Other than that, everything is pretty normal. what is really f'd up, is that the situations you have described actually are becoming a lot more normal good luck with everything Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDFFFreak Posted December 6, 2008 Share Posted December 6, 2008 (edited) Just found out today that my dad was "let go" from the Orthopedic clinic that he worked at for 16 years, as the administrator, on Monday. Total shock... nobody in my family saw this coming. My wife and I will probably find out in the next 30 days whether we're going to have to forclose on our house or not. Other than that, everything is pretty normal. Seriously Gopher, that blows. I am very sorry to hear about that. Here's to hoping that you can keep your house. We aren't in dire straights as of yet, but I am concerned about the next year as the wife just lost her job and I am trying to work on the ealry stages of my career. Edited December 6, 2008 by TDFFFreak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperBalla Posted December 6, 2008 Share Posted December 6, 2008 (edited) Doing good here, now that I sold my other house. Wife is in administration at the wealthiest school in the state basically. Sporting Goods/Uniforms has been on fire lately, jersey prices keep going up and up allowing the margins to stay the same but increase in gross. Ya know...I could write an article on the evolution of sports uniforms from the old timey cotton knickers to the hawt as hell no-stretch Poly, now to the Under Armour, lycra 4 direction stretch materials (including decorations such as screen print ink) that are basically painted on the player and equipment, allowing zero resistance to any movement he might make. (Football speaking) Back to the thread... My IRA and my wife's has lost maybe a third of its value and so has our son's College Savings Investments. Retirees like my Grandfather are the one's getting slaughtered. Fortunately many of us are young enough to ride these days out and our portfolios will recover, some just don't have the recovery time. Edited December 6, 2008 by SuperBalla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Czarina Posted December 6, 2008 Share Posted December 6, 2008 Hasn't much yet. We changed our cell phone contract and cut our monthly bill in half. Postponed a few purchases in order to pay off the credit card balances incurred during our last vacation trip. Decided to forgo Christmas presents for eachother this year, probably more a function of just not being too enthused about Christmas more than strictly cutting back. Realized that it's time to stop complaining about the low pay and difficult (at times) working conditions that come with being in education and start being thankful that short of commiting a felony, we have almost no chance of being laid off. Well, you say that, and maybe it's different in your neck of the woods...but around here, enrollments are dropping in schools. The last big bubble of kids are now 13 years old in our district (year of birth 1995). My town's first grade this year is more than 20% smaller than that high water mark year. They're going to be laying off teachers around here. With last in, first out rules, I'm a little . The only bright side I'm seeing at my school is that the district thought they were starting out the year $500k in the red due to oil costing close to $5/gallon for heating. Now that it's fallen in half, hopefully they won't be that far in the red. Unfortunately, a lot of people locked in their price when it was high for fear of it going even higher. They're taking it in the teeth for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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