detlef Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 Just curious if anyone knows how often the favorite covers. I was thinking this morning, especially in light of the paucity of credible comparisons we have from one team to another, what a bad bet taking the favorite would seem to be. Seriously, we can all speculate on who is better between these two, but history shows that we have no freaking idea because the entire college football season essentially amounts to a bunch of experiments happening in virtual vacuums with precious few opportunities to compare the results of each of the experiments. Sorry to remind OSU fans, yet again, but it was never more true that after the 2006 season. It was all about who should be given the honor to face OSU. Never a mention of whether or not they were among the 2 best teams. I recall they were favored and, I think by a decent number? None the less, I would imagine smart money would go towards OU for absolutely no reason other than the fact that we can pretend to know why one or the other is better, but we simply don't have anything credible to point to. Thus, why not take the one that not only pays if they win, but also if they lose by a little? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockerbraves Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 Seems the oddsmakers either like the Gators or the bettors do. Line has moved upward. Thu, 08 Jan 2009 08:20 PM This game will be televised on FOX. This game is circled. 267 Florida -5 (-110) OV 69½ (-110) -210 268 Oklahoma +5 (-110) UN 69½ (-110) +175 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GWPFFL BrianW Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 Teams favored and result 1998: Florida State L 1999: Florida State W 2000: Florida State L 2001: Miami W 2002: Miami L 2003: Oklahoma L 2004: Oklahoma L 2005: Southern Cal L 2006: Ohio State L 2007: LSU W 2008: Florida ??? Underdogs have done well in this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cameltosis Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 Just curious if anyone knows how often the favorite covers. I was thinking this morning, especially in light of the paucity of credible comparisons we have from one team to another, what a bad bet taking the favorite would seem to be. Seriously, we can all speculate on who is better between these two, but history shows that we have no freaking idea because the entire college football season essentially amounts to a bunch of experiments happening in virtual vacuums with precious few opportunities to compare the results of each of the experiments. Sorry to remind OSU fans, yet again, but it was never more true that after the 2006 season. It was all about who should be given the honor to face OSU. Never a mention of whether or not they were among the 2 best teams. I recall they were favored and, I think by a decent number? None the less, I would imagine smart money would go towards OU for absolutely no reason other than the fact that we can pretend to know why one or the other is better, but we simply don't have anything credible to point to. Thus, why not take the one that not only pays if they win, but also if they lose by a little? No worries. Us Buckeye fans can still remember 2002! Hey, I have to hold on to something here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted January 8, 2009 Author Share Posted January 8, 2009 Teams favored and result 1998: Florida State L 1999: Florida State W 2000: Florida State L 2001: Miami W 2002: Miami L 2003: Oklahoma L 2004: Oklahoma L 2005: Southern Cal L 2006: Ohio State L 2007: LSU W 2008: Florida ??? Underdogs have done well in this game. So there it is. There's simply nothing tangible to go on, even if each year we think there is. So, in terms of quality of teams, you have to think it's a coin-flip. Again, each team is doing what they're doing completely separate of each other. Both FL and OU have peed all over everyone they've played and both slipped up once. Great, so that tells us absolutely nothing about how they are compared to each other. If anything, and given that, you might have to skew towards the underdog because they feel slighted. As a bettor, I just can't see ever laying the points in this game short of a situation where someone truly backs in like, say, laying the points and taking Miami vs Nebraska in the 01 game. I think I need to put some money on OU tonight. Especially since I really don't like Florida at all. I'd rather see OU lose but, hell, maybe they lose by 3 and I get the best of both worlds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cameltosis Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 So there it is. There's simply nothing tangible to go on, even if each year we think there is. So, in terms of quality of teams, you have to think it's a coin-flip. Again, each team is doing what they're doing completely separate of each other. Both FL and OU have peed all over everyone they've played and both slipped up once. Great, so that tells us absolutely nothing about how they are compared to each other. If anything, and given that, you might have to skew towards the underdog because they feel slighted. As a bettor, I just can't see ever laying the points in this game short of a situation where someone truly backs in like, say, laying the points and taking Miami vs Nebraska in the 01 game. I think I need to put some money on OU tonight. Especially since I really don't like Florida at all. I'd rather see OU lose but, hell, maybe they lose by 3 and I get the best of both worlds. That sinches it. I'm betting Florida. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 I can - the Big 12 is over-rated, that is enough for me to go on. I have already won some nice dough taking Oregon + vs OSU Ole Miss + vs TT Ohio St + vs Texas I ain't getting off this train and will be gladly laying the points tonight, although I do think OU is a helluva club and deserves props for their non conference scheduling by playing TCU and CIncy and they very well could win this game - but my money is on Urban Meyer and FLA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonedaddies Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 What about when you factor the Heisman winner into the equation? 2000: Florida State L Weinke (Lost) 2001: Miami W Crouch (Neb lost) 2003: Oklahoma L J.White (Lost) 2004: Oklahoma L Leinart (on winning team) 2005: Southern Cal L Bush (Lost) 2006: Ohio State L T.Smith (Lost) 2008: Florida / OU ??? Bradford (?????) So in the last 8 years the Heisman winner has played in the NC game 6 times and won only once....not sure what that means to the 5 points on the board.....we will find out soon!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted January 8, 2009 Author Share Posted January 8, 2009 I can - the Big 12 is over-rated, that is enough for me to go on. I have already won some nice dough taking Oregon + vs OSU Ole Miss + vs TT Ohio St + vs Texas I ain't getting off this train and will be gladly laying the points tonight, although I do think OU is a helluva club and deserves props for their non conference scheduling by playing TCU and CIncy and they very well could win this game - but my money is on Urban Meyer and FLA And last I checked, this wasn't the Big 12 All Stars vs the SEC All Stars. This is one team from each league. Each team basically dominated their league but for one slip up. In conference finals, FL had a tougher time, albeit vs a better team than Mizzou. So TT and OSU aren't all that. OK, well OU killed both of them. Did they need to beat TT by 60 instead of 40? Every year going into the FF draft, guys like me point to the lack of historical evidence to support taking a D with anything but your last pick. Then some guy comes along and says, "Well, that's all well and good, but I know differently. Team X is going to crush on D." Then, by years end, they finish middle of the pack. My point is that we can make arguments to support picking FL. We can make arguments to support picking OU. The thing is, history has shown that those arguments are just guesses since there's not enough credible data to compare the schools. All we know is that two outstanding teams are going to match up. One is likely going to play better than the other but who that is, nobody knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted January 8, 2009 Share Posted January 8, 2009 And last I checked, this wasn't the Big 12 All Stars vs the SEC All Stars. This is one team from each league. Each team basically dominated their league but for one slip up. In conference finals, FL had a tougher time, albeit vs a better team than Mizzou. So TT and OSU aren't all that. OK, well OU killed both of them. Did they need to beat TT by 60 instead of 40? Every year going into the FF draft, guys like me point to the lack of historical evidence to support taking a D with anything but your last pick. Then some guy comes along and says, "Well, that's all well and good, but I know differently. Team X is going to crush on D." Then, by years end, they finish middle of the pack. My point is that we can make arguments to support picking FL. We can make arguments to support picking OU. The thing is, history has shown that those arguments are just guesses since there's not enough credible data to compare the schools. All we know is that two outstanding teams are going to match up. One is likely going to play better than the other but who that is, nobody knows. all well and good Det - but guessing is how it goes, are you expecting some magic formula that spits out the winner? I dunno, I think my historical "perspective" or opinion (rather than evidence) from THIS YEAR is much more relevant than past results of totally different teams and players, and has been proven right in my 3 above examples. Your "history" is just that- past history with no relevance or basis to tonights game. Much like seeing a coin come up heads 10 times in a row, which has zero impact on the 11th flip being a heads or tails. As far as point spreads go, I got FLA at -3.5, which to me has value b/c A) the number has gone up to 5 and I would play FLA up to -7, and the Big 12 is overrated as a whole, and the OU wins are not as impressive as advertised...... I think you can certainly point towards a conference not providing the same level of opposition week in and week out. Mizzou ie would have been .500 in the SEC IMO - and my gue$$ will be with Urban Meyer, who has shown to come out on top in big games more than Stoops- either way- should be a great game! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted January 9, 2009 Author Share Posted January 9, 2009 (edited) all well and good Det - but guessing is how it goes, are you expecting some magic formula that spits out the winner? I dunno, I think my historical "perspective" or opinion (rather than evidence) from THIS YEAR is much more relevant than past results of totally different teams and players, and has been proven right in my 3 above examples. Your "history" is just that- past history with no relevance or basis to tonights game. Much like seeing a coin come up heads 10 times in a row, which has zero impact on the 11th flip being a heads or tails. As far as point spreads go, I got FLA at -3.5, which to me has value b/c A) the number has gone up to 5 and I would play FLA up to -7, and the Big 12 is overrated as a whole, and the OU wins are not as impressive as advertised...... I think you can certainly point towards a conference not providing the same level of opposition week in and week out. Mizzou ie would have been .500 in the SEC IMO - and my gue$$ will be with Urban Meyer, who has shown to come out on top in big games more than Stoops- either way- should be a great game! Certainly all your arguments have merit. But I should point out that I am absolutely not expecting a formula that spits out the winner. My assertion is that history shows such a formula may not exist to predict which among the two teams considered the best will win a head to head game. As you said, it's a guess. So, that said, why not take the half of the guess that comes will a little extra wiggle room? Believe me, my bet has nothing to do with any confidence in OU. If you put a gun to my head and asked me who I thought would win, I would say FL. Thing is, I realize that is just an opinion and one that is likely flawed by a lack of tangible evidence. However, I think basically everyone else is in the same boat. By the time I bet, it was up to 6 and the money line was at 170. That seemed way too tasty not to take advantage of, so I split my bet between the pts and the moneyline. Oh, and I agree that it should be a great game. Edited January 9, 2009 by detlef Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted January 9, 2009 Author Share Posted January 9, 2009 Oh well, my theory cost me some dough last night. However, I think it is a sound theory. Through 3 quarters, you simply could not say either team had a substantially better shot at winning the game than the other. OU squandered two early chances to put a good halftime number up. Of course, those chances were made possible by uncharacteristic mistakes on the part of Tebow. In the end, FL did enough to not only win but cover, but I still believe the amount of uncertainty in a game like this favors taking the points in most cases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockerbraves Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 Certainly all your arguments have merit. But I should point out that I am absolutely not expecting a formula that spits out the winner. My assertion is that history shows such a formula may not exist to predict which among the two teams considered the best will win a head to head game. As you said, it's a guess. So, that said, why not take the half of the guess that comes will a little extra wiggle room? Tough loss Detlef. I might have taken the points too if forced to bet the game. However it's beginning to look like there is one formula that spits out the winner. Betting on the SEC team in BCS NC games. SEC 5-0 mark in BCS NC games is even more impressive considering they have not always been the favorite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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